In the SMALL TOWN AMERICA II league, Jerry's World found themselves in the unenviable 12th draft position. With 30 rounds to navigate, they were determined to make their mark. And make their mark they did, earning a resounding F in their draft grade. With a projected record of 1-13-0 and a projected finish of 17th, it seems Jerry's World is destined for a season of disappointment. Their projected points of 1236.55 may not be enough to turn the tide, especially considering their schedule difficulty, ranked as the 9th toughest out of 20 teams. To add insult to injury, they have 2 players on bye week 9, further complicating their chances of success.
While there were a few bright spots in Jerry's World's draft, such as snagging Jaylen Warren at 172, well below their ADP of 128, the same cannot be said for their worst pick. Selecting Lamar Jackson at 12, when their ADP was 38, was a questionable move at best. But perhaps the most puzzling aspect of Jerry's World's draft strategy was their decision to draft a whopping 8 DL, when the league average is a mere 1.1. Are they planning to field an entire defensive line? And let's not forget the 6 DE they drafted, when the league average is 1.5. It seems Jerry's World is single-handedly trying to corner the market on defensive players.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 12 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 43 - 2022 Rank: 20
Jackson's 2022 was cut short by a Week 13 knee injury, limiting him to just 12 games. If his 11 complete games were prorated to a full season, he would have recorded almost 3,500 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Despite his completion percentage (62.3) and yards per attempt (6.9) dropping compared to the previous few years, he still managed QB1-level fantasy production thanks to his exceptional running ability. Jackson's performance was hindered by arguably the worst wideout corps in the league, but the Ravens took steps to address this issue by signing Odell Beckham and then drafting Zay Flowers in the first round. A healthy season from Rashod Bateman, their 2021 first-round pick who missed six games with a Lisfranc injury, would also be significant. Tight end Mark Andrews is still the main target in the offense, with fellow TE Isaiah Likely providing an additional receiving threat. The most crucial change could be the switch in offensive scheme from Greg Roman's run-heavy playbook to a more pass-oriented one led by new OC Todd Monken. Jackson ended the uncertainty around his future by signing a five-year deal worth $135 million guaranteed in May. He is undoubtedly the best QB in the league when it comes to running, and a full season could see him reach 1,000 rushing yards even if he gets fewer designed carries under Monken.
- Round 2, Pick 29 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 40 - 2022 Rank: 1471
Prior to sitting out most of the 2021 season to address mental health issues and subsequently being suspended for the 2022 campaign due to gambling, Ridley had established himself as an elite wide receiver. In his last full season, Ridley posted 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns with the Falcons. He'll likely take some time to get back up to game speed after the extended layoff, but Ridley has the skills to become the favorite target for rising star quarterback Trevor Lawrence in a Jacksonville passing game that also features WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, as well as TE Evan Engram. The 28-year-old Ridley should still be in his physical prime, but returning to elite form after an extended layoff isn't easy. For instance, former standout RB Le'Veon Bell was never the same after sitting out the 2018 season due to a contract dispute.
- Round 3, Pick 52 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 70 - 2022 Rank: 154
Montgomery was serviceable, though not great during his four years in Chicago. He had less than 4.0 yards per carry in three of those years. Explosiveness is an issue. Last year, he was held to just two runs of 20 or more yards, which was the worst of his career. Just like in college, his broken tackle rate is excellent. He was in the 84th percentile in that category. However, he didn't do very much after getting defenders to miss. He ended up in the 50th percentile in yards after contact. He didn't reach 80 yards rushing in a game after Week 2, though he didn't see more than 17 carries in any game. He did see his receiving usage increase toward the end of the season. He was targeted three-to-five times in each of his last six games before a meaningless Week 18 contest. Although not the same physical presence, Montgomery should slot into much of the role that Jamaal Williams had with Detroit last year. The problem is that Montgomery is better as a pass catcher than a runner. And that's where Jahmyr Gibbs is likely superior. Also, Montgomery may not be at the same level of goal line back compared to Williams. It's a confusing situation, but the upside is a solid RB2 but there are many paths to him being just a flex option.
- Round 4, Pick 69 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 71 - 2022 Rank: 280
Goedert hasn't played a full schedule since he was a rookie in 2018, and 2022 was no exception. The tight end missed five games last season with a shoulder injury. And yet Goedert still turned in another productive season. Since supplanting Zach Ertz as the Eagles' top tight end, he's averaged more than 10 yards a target and 50 receiving yards a game over the last two years. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the top weapons for quarterback Jalen Hurts, but Goedert is a capable No. 3 option in an explosive offense that will have a lot of continuity from last season. While his floor is his big selling point from a fantasy perspective, there's room for growth in his red-zone production if defenses find a way to force Philadelphia to shy away from using Hurts on goal-line sneaks. Even without a big spike in his touchdown output, Goedert has plenty of appeal once the elite tight ends are off the board.
- Round 5, Pick 92 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 493 - 2022 Rank: 291
- Round 6, Pick 109 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 296 - 2022 Rank: 86
Gay signed a record-setting four-year, $22.5 million contract with the Colts in the offseason. Even if the pressure of signing the biggest free agent deal for a kicker in NFL history doesn't get to Gay, his volume figures to be depressed on a run-first offense led by a rookie QB in Anthony Richardson, especially since the Colts averaged just 17.0 PPG with veteran Matt Ryan under center in 2022. Gay made 74 of 80 field-goal attempts with the Rams over the previous three seasons, including 12 of 15 from 50-plus yards, so he figures to remain reliable when given opportunities.
- Round 7, Pick 132 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 96 - 2022 Rank: 514
Only 23, Moore has already been on quite a journey in the NFL. The 34th overall pick in 2021 emerged as the Jets' top receiving threat by the second month of his rookie season, averaging 67.4 receiving yards and scoring six touchdowns over a seven-game stretch before a quadriceps injury kept him sidelined for the final five weeks. Moore then struggled last year in his sophomore campaign and eventually was demoted to third on the depth chart, at one point missing a game because of conflict with the coaching staff and his desire to be traded. The Jets acquiesced, though not until the offseason, dealing Moore to Cleveland in March for a Day 2 pick swap. His combination of 4.35 speed and agility could help Deshaun Watson get back on track in his second year with the Browns, but first Moore will need to compete for snaps with Donovan Peoples-Jones, a returning starter whose size/speed combination makes him useful as a deep threat and blocker. Moore reportedly was one of the standouts of Cleveland's offseason program, and he conceivably could finish second or third on the team in targets even if he doesn't play quite as many snaps as fellow WRs Amari Cooper and Peoples-Jones.
- Round 8, Pick 149 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 580 - 2022 Rank: 307
- Round 9, Pick 172 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 111 - 2022 Rank: 485
Warren's performance during his college years was unremarkable, and his athletic testing ahead of the 2022 NFL Draft was average. Nonetheless, he quickly made an impact with the Steelers after signing as an undrafted free agent last spring. He not only earned a roster spot but also surpassed two fourth-round picks from previous drafts on the Pittsburgh depth chart, becoming Najee Harris's backup and playing mostly in passing situations. At 5-8, 215, Warren's low center of gravity and reliable hands made him a nuisance for defenses on check-down throws. Although he's a valuable complementary player for Pittsburgh, he won't necessarily become a high-volume starter even if Harris misses time. Warren struggled to average 5.0 YPC in college, and though he achieved 4.9 YPC in 2022, it was partially due to the Steelers limiting his carries to low-stakes situations or snaps where the defense was expecting a pass. He does appear secure in his spot on the depth chart, as the Steelers still have little in the backfield beyond Harris and Warren.
- Round 10, Pick 189 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1294 - 2022 Rank: 553
- Round 11, Pick 212 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 172 - 2022 Rank: 185
Boyd has finished with 750-to-850 receiving yards in each season since the Bengals drafted QB Joe Burrow and WR Tee Higgins (2020). Earlier in his career, Boyd had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2018-19, operating as Cincinnati's No. 1 receiver for a time. Now the team's No. 3 wide receiver, Boyd has partially made up for a huge decrease in target volume by upping his catch rates and yards per target throughout Burrow's tenure. This reduction in volume seems unlikely to reverse in a meaningful way unless Higgins and/or Ja'Marr Chase miss(es) a large chunk of the season. Even then, it's worth noting that Boyd averaged only five targets and 35.5 yard in the four games Chase missed last season. Higgins, on the other hand, averaged nine targets and 92.8 yards during that period. Boyd is still a viable option in deeper fantasy setups where his relatively high floor has value, but managers in shallower leagues are probably better off using a late pick on a young receiver with more risk/reward.
- Round 12, Pick 229 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 371 - 2022 Rank: 483
- Round 13, Pick 252 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 636 - 2022 Rank: 1025
- Round 14, Pick 269 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 241 - 2022 Rank: 1525
Downs was highly productive at UNC, but the 2023 third-round pick's measurables are nothing to write home about. His 4.48 speed isn't all that impressive given his size at 5-foot-10, 175. But Downs played faster than his 40 time suggests in college en route to 195 catches, 2,364 yards and 19 touchdowns in 24 games his last two seasons. Downs will compete with former Bills WR Isaiah McKenzie for the starting job in the slot for a Colts passing game with few established pass catchers after Michael Pittman. If Downs beats out McKenzie, he and second-year wideout Alec Pierce would likely see the majority of targets behind Pittman, but there may not be all that many looks to go around. The Colts are planning to implement a run-first approach around RB Jonathan Taylor, especially if rookie fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson starts right away at QB. The strong-armed Richardson should contribute to the run-heavy nature of Indianapolis' attack with his legs, and there are questions about his accuracy, so Downs could have an easier path to early success if Richardson loses the QB competition to veteran Gardner Minshew.
- Round 15, Pick 292 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1580 - 2022 Rank: 516
- Round 16, Pick 309 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1582 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 17, Pick 332 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 730 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 18, Pick 349 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 733 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 19, Pick 372 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 2030 - 2022 Rank: 522
Woods shined when given extended opportunities as a rookie last season. Across the three games in which he played at least 60 percent of offensive snaps, the 2022 third-round pick caught 14 of 18 targets for 160 yards. Woods topped 40 percent of snaps only once over the remainder of the season while splitting reps with Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson. All three tight ends are set to return in 2023, plus the Colts drafted Will Mallory in the fifth round, but Woods should have the opportunity to earn a more significant role in his sophomore season. Woods scored three times as a rookie, and his 6-foot-7, 265-pound frame should make him an enticing red-zone target for the Colts' new QB, whether that's rookie fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew.
- Round 20, Pick 389 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 732 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 21, Pick 412 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1542 - 2022 Rank: 585
- Round 22, Pick 429 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 226 - 2022 Rank: 1523
Entering the draft, Wilson projected as a depth receiver, perhaps playing only on the outside. At 6-foot-2, 213, he has good size to play on the boundary. His college strengths were his ability as a blocker as well as him running hard after the catch. Conversely, Wilson often failed to use his size well, as cornerbacks often got him off his route, and that issue is likely magnified at the next level. Also, his route running was not crisp and he often failed to get separation from defenders. Finally, Wilson was slow and showed little agility during his testing at the combine. Despite his scouting profile, with DeAndre Hopkins no longer on the roster, Wilson might be the only option for a big receiver to play on the perimeter. None of the top-3 WR -- Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch -- is taller than 5-9.
- Round 23, Pick 452 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1549 - 2022 Rank: 481
- Round 24, Pick 469 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 266 - 2022 Rank: 255
James was the beneficiary of Giants' injuries woes at wide receiver last year, as he turned a one-year deal into 57 catches, 569 yards and four touchdowns on 70 targets. That production didn't land him a big free-agent deal, though, as he signed with Kansas City on a one-year, $1.2 million contract. But with the Chiefs he joins another wide-receiver room that is not particularly impressive. Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling top the depth chart, but James likely has a shot at carving out a role out of the slot, which would give him fantasy value in deeper formats.
- Round 25, Pick 492 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2531 - 2022 Rank: 826
- Round 26, Pick 509 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1545 - 2022 Rank: 615
- Round 27, Pick 532 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1546 - 2022 Rank: 886
- Round 28, Pick 549 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 751 - 2022 Rank: 687
- Round 29, Pick 572 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1021 - 2022 Rank: 1337
- Round 30, Pick 589 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2450 - 2022 Rank: 800
This certainly hasn't been the best offseason for Haskins. First, the Titans selected RB Tyjae Spears in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft, likely pushing Haskins to third on a depth chart that already offers limited opportunities for anybody not named Derrick Henry. Then, Haskins was arrested for aggravated assault in June in connection with a pair of domestic incidents. The Titans and the NFL plan to let the legal process play out before possibly levying a punishment, but it's possible Haskins could face discipline from the team or league in connection with the arrest. The 2022 fourth-round pick out of Michigan had just 150 scrimmage yards on 25 carries and 12 targets as a rookie, and Haskins doesn't have a clear path to a larger role in 2023.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
