The Z'ville Zingaros entered the SMALL TOWN AMERICA II draft with high hopes, but unfortunately, their performance left much to be desired. Despite having the 7th pick in the draft order, they failed to make a splash and ended up with a lackluster C+ grade. With a projected record of 6-8-0 and a projected finish in 12th place, it seems like the Zingaros are destined for the cellar of the league.
One bright spot for the Z'ville Zingaros was their selection of Rashee Rice at pick 194, well below his average draft position of 130. This steal of a pick could potentially provide some much-needed points for the struggling team. However, their draft was not without its flaws. The Zingaros made a questionable decision by selecting Trevor Lawrence at pick 34, much higher than his average draft position of 59. This early reach could come back to haunt them throughout the season.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 7 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2396 - 2022 Rank: 32
Chubb is considered by many to be the top runner in the league, regularly topping 5.0 yards per carry despite getting a lot of work in situations where the defense expects a run or only needs to defend the final few yards of the field. On the other hand, Chubb's fantasy output has been somewhat limited by Kareem Hunt playing a lot of snaps and receiving most of Cleveland's RB targets. Although Chubb has been effective with his limited receiving opportunities, he simply hasn't been given the chance to accumulate many targets. The Browns may finally give Chubb more work as a pass catcher now that Hunt is no longer on the team, even if they ultimately settle on Jerome Ford or Demetric Felton as the back of choice for obvious passing situations. Should that happen, Chubb will be positioned for his best fantasy year yet, especially if QB Deshaun Watson regains his Houston form and buoys the entire offense. Chubb is already an annual candidate to lead the league in rushing yards and could now enter the mix to finish first in total yards and/or touchdowns. Even if things don't break in his favor, Chubb should retain his floor as an above-average fantasy starter thanks to both volume and efficiency on the ground.
- Round 2, Pick 34 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 72 - 2022 Rank: 6
Lawrence made a second-year leap under new coach Doug Pederson, posting a 25:8 TD:INT after mustering a 12:17 mark during his forgettable rookie season. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft enters his third season as an established top-10 fantasy QB, but Lawrence's ceiling is higher than that, as he still has a few obvious areas for further improvement. Lawrence's 7.0 YPA in 2022 ranked a pedestrian 18th, and the underrated runner mustered only 291 yards on the ground after rushing for 334 as a rookie, though Lawrence increased his rushing TD total from two to five. He'll also be working with an improved supporting cast in 2023, as the Jaguars added WR Calvin Ridley - who had 1,374 receiving yards for the Falcons in 2020 but sat out 2022 entirely due to a gambling suspension - while retaining their top four skill position players from last season (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne). Playing in the underwhelming AFC South could be both a blessing and a curse for Lawrence. While the Jaguars are favored to repeat as division champs, they will likely spend the majority of their six games against the Titans, Colts and Texans playing from a lead, thus potentially limiting Lawrence's volume after he attempted 670 passes last year - sixth-most in the NFL.
- Round 3, Pick 47 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 15 - 2022 Rank: 49
Waddle had 23 more targets in 2022 versus his rookie season. But playing alongside Tyreek Hill is what really improved his performance. While Waddle set an NFL record with 104 catches as a rookie, he did so with a frustratingly low 9.8 yards per catch in a rather inept offense. It was coach Mike McDaniel's scheme that not only unlocked quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but also developed Waddle's skillset. Waddle made the jump from 9.8 to a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch, obviously benefitting from the presence of Hill. He also thrived despite playing through a plethora of lingering injuries. It's further impressive that Waddle's success came despite playing through turmoil at the quarterback position, as he ended the year catching passes from rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson. It's easy to see a scenario wherein Miami's offense builds upon itself in 2023. The team will have another offseason to build familiarity with McDaniel's complex scheme, and if things break right, Tagovailoa should be able to avoid injuries with better success. The stage is set, in other words, for Waddle and Hill to take the league by storm.
- Round 4, Pick 74 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 68 - 2022 Rank: 114
After racking up 1,082 yards on 129 targets in 2021, Pittman dipped to 925 yards on 141 targets last season. The decline in efficiency can be attributed to abhorrent quarterback play by the combination of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles. Entering his fourth NFL season, Pittman once again profiles as the clear No. 1 WR for the Colts, but the team's QB situation remains murky. Indianapolis signed Gardner Minshew and drafted Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Minshew probably represents an upgrade over the options throwing Pittman the ball last year, but Richardson will likely claim the starting job before long, and the question marks about Richardson's accuracy coupled with his running ability could lead to declines in both passing volume and efficiency. Still, the Colts could find themselves playing from behind often, and the lack of established targets behind Pittman suggests the 25-year-old wide receiver should remain busy after ranking 12th league-wide in targets last season despite missing one game.
- Round 5, Pick 87 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1112 - 2022 Rank: 37
Oluokun began his career more as a special teams ace rather than defensive stopper while in Atlanta. However, he has led the league in tackles in each of his two seasons with the Jaguars, posting 192 and 184 tackles, respectively. A bit more under the radar is his work in coverage, as he's broken up 11 combined passes across the last two campaigns. In addition to his statistical impact, Oluokun is a leader of the Jaguars' defense. He has served as a captain and also helped turn around the culture of the team after the departure of coach Urban Meyer. The linebacker is entering the final year of his deal with Jacksonville, but there's little reason to doubt that Oluokun will again be among the league's most productive inside linebackers.
- Round 6, Pick 114 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1193 - 2022 Rank: 55
Four seasons into his career, Franklin had recorded 518 total defensive snaps as compared to 1,272 on special teams. However, star linebacker Shaquille Leonard was lost for the season after only three games due to a neck injury, clearing a path for Franklin on the defensive side of the ball in 2022. That led to a breakout season, as he tallied 167 tackles, three sacks, and six passes defended over 17 games. Heading into 2023, Leonard is still recovering from his injury, and Bobby Okereke departed in free agency during the offseason. Given that, Franklin should be in store for another prominent role during the 2023 campaign and has the chance to solidify his status as one of the better linebackers in the league.
- Round 7, Pick 127 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 592 - 2022 Rank: 160
In a move that was hotly debated, the Steelers traded a first-round pick for Fitzpatrick in 2019. He's certainly held up his end of the deal, averaging 100 tackles and four interceptions in his three full seasons with Pittsburgh. Those stats don't accurately describe the impact that Fitzpatrick has on the defense, as he's proven to be a big-play threat in coverage. He's tallied at least nine pass breakups in all but one of his seasons. In addition, his ball-hawking has translated into five career touchdowns, including a 31-yard interception return in a Week 1 win against the Bengals in 2022. That big-play potential is the secret weapon in Fitzpatrick's fantasy arsenal, something that sets him apart from most other IDP options.
- Round 8, Pick 154 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 92 - 2022 Rank: 253
Although the Rams had a terrible season on offense, the same cannot be said for Higbee. He had career highs with 72 receptions and 108 targets. However, due to the crumbling offensive line and carousel at quarterback, his 8.6 yards per reception was the lowest since his 2016 rookie season. Higbee was frequently used on tight end screens, so his 64th-percentile yards after the catch rate helped him to post decent yardage totals, but he was very inconsistent (he had 15 or fewer yards in seven of his last 12 games). Nonetheless, in Weeks 1-5 when the offense was decent, he had between 39 and 73 yards in each game. Going into his age-30 season, it's unlikely Higbee will finish inside the top-12 tight ends, but he should be in the tier below that.
- Round 9, Pick 167 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 859 - 2022 Rank: 149
Thompson has spent his entire eight-year career with Carolina, and he'll stick with the team in 2023 after reworking his deal in the offseason. He's always been an important part of the defensive unit, though his role has grown across the last four seasons. He's topped 100 tackles in each. In fact, 2022 was his most prolific campaign, as he led the Panthers with 135 stops in 17 games. Looking forward to 2023, Thompson's leadership and playmaking figure to be key as the Carolina defense transitions to new coordinator Ejiro Evero's 3-4 scheme. Along with a healthy Jeremy Chinn, Thompson once again is a top candidate to pace the Panthers in tackles.
- Round 10, Pick 194 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 147 - 2022 Rank: 1510
The Chiefs surprised most when they selected Rice in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft (55th overall), as the former SMU star was more so expected to be a Day 3 selection. The Chiefs might have been onto something, though, because Rice was a very productive player at SMU and his athletic testing at the combine was better than expected (4.51-second 40, 41-inch vertical at 6-foot-1, 204). Not just that, but Patrick Mahomes requested that the Chiefs select Rice at some point in the draft. In addition to his springy athleticism, Rice plays with a physicality that makes him a threat both at the catch point and as a ballcarrier after the catch. Fantasy drafters might be leery of Rice's rookie season after Skyy Moore disappointed as a second-round pick in 2022, but it's worth noting that Rice has a more versatile skill set than Moore. Whereas Moore can only realistically earn snaps in the slot, Rice can credibly compete for reps at any wide receiver position in the Chiefs offense.
- Round 11, Pick 207 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1164 - 2022 Rank: 155
Bentley has proven to be a trustworthy member of Bill Belichick's defense across the last three seasons, playing at least 600 snaps and over 90 tackles each year during that span. He's coming off of his best campaign, during which he racked up a team-high 125 tackles along with three sacks, an interception, and a fumble recovery in 17 games. The team rewarded him with an extension, which should keep him in New England until after the 2024 campaign. It also means that the 2018 fifth-rounder is set to reprise his starting inside linebacker role for the Patriots. Bentley isn't an IDP superstar, as he's never managed to contribute much in the way of pass rush or coverage stats. On the other hand, he has a clear role in the middle of the defense and should pile up tackles once again.
- Round 12, Pick 234 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 193 - 2022 Rank: 150
Singletary spent most of the past four years as Buffalo's starting RB after being selected in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. He averaged a respectable 4.7 YPC over that span, and after scoring just six scrimmage touchdowns in his first two seasons, Singletary found the end zone 14 times over the last two years. Despite underwhelming measurables (5-foot-8 and 203 pounds with 4.66 speed), Singletary has proven to be a capable NFL running back, but he's looking at a massive downgrade in the situation heading into 2023. After playing the lead RB role in one of the league's most prolific offenses, Singletary's expected to be bumped to the backup spot behind Dameon Pierce in a Houston offense that's been one of the least effective in recent years. The Texans are going through a makeover on offense, and the addition of Singletary on a one-year deal is part of that effort, but there isn't much upside here barring an injury to Pierce. Perhaps Singletary can carve out more playing time on passing downs since Pierce is unproven as a receiver, though Singletary's career mark of 5.0 yards per target doesn't inspire much confidence in that regard, either.
- Round 13, Pick 247 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 410 - 2022 Rank: 244
- Round 14, Pick 274 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 559 - 2022 Rank: 198
- Round 15, Pick 287 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 137 - 2022 Rank: 402
Hurst signed a three-year contract with the Panthers in the offseason, joining his third team in three years and fourth NFL franchise overall. From a fantasy perspective, it is a favorable landing spot for a tight end who would only be a backup for some teams. The Panthers lack not only competition at Hurst's position but also talented pass catchers overall, as they traded away WR DJ Moore to select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young first overall. While far from explosive, Hurst has enjoyed spurts of fantasy utility in which he drew a handful of targets per week, including last season in Cincinnati as the fourth option in a WR-heavy passing game. With fewer standout players to compete with in Carolina, he could even challenge his 2020 career high of 88 targets, which resulted in a 56-571-6 receiving line for the Falcons that year. Heading into 2023, snap competition is weak, to say the least, with fellow Panthers tight ends Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble having repeatedly proven themselves non-factors in the passing game.
- Round 16, Pick 314 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 207 - 2022 Rank: 328
After a disappointing 2021 campaign, it wasn't clear Slayton still had a future with the Giants, but he re-established himself as a downfield threat under new coach Brian Daboll. It took a few games and a few injuries ahead of him on the depth chart for that to happen, though, as Slayton didn't make his first catch until Week 4 before going on to set new career highs in yards per catch and yards per target. The Giants brought in plenty of competition in the offseason, adding Parris Campbell in free agency, Jalin Hyatt in the draft and tight end Darren Waller via trade, but Slayton's elite speed should still give him a role in the offense. Slayton, 26, signed a two-year, $12 million contract in March to stay in New York, but less than half that money is guaranteed, so if he tumbles down the depth chart again he may not get another chance to regain his standing with the team.
- Round 17, Pick 327 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1096 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 18, Pick 354 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1576 - 2022 Rank: 507
- Round 19, Pick 367 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 250 - 2022 Rank: 77
"The Leg" has converted 82.1% of his FGAs in his 12-year career, but his accuracy from long ranges has been less than steady in recent seasons. The arrival of QB Aaron Rodgers could set Zeurlein up to once again operate in a high-powered offense, as he got used to with the Cowboys and Rams. Zuerlein will need things to go right on offense for his production to skyrocket, but there's plenty of reason for optimism in projecting the Jets. Of course, there's also risk things go sideways for the aged Rodgers and Zeurlein.
- Round 20, Pick 394 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1919 - 2022 Rank: 144
After bouncing through three different teams in 2021, Slye found a home in Washington last year and posted solid efficiency numbers over 17 games, although his opportunities were limited due to a lackluster offense that finished in the bottom 10 in scoring. The 27-year-old Slye is a career 17-for-27 from beyond 50 yards, including 4-for-6 in 2022, so improvements in the offense could allow him to become a more reliable fantasy option. If second-year quarterback Sam Howell can stabilize that position, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy can bring some Kansas City magic with him, Slye should see more than last year's 30 field-goal attempts.
- Round 21, Pick 407 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 228 - 2022 Rank: 263
Campbell played more games in 2022 than in his first three NFL seasons combined, but the Colts' quarterback issues kept him from truly capitalizing on his good health last season. The 2019 second-round pick still has enticing size and athleticism and posted solid numbers while working primarily out of the slot, earning a one-year, $4.7 million contract from the Giants this offseason. Campbell will have plenty of competition for targets on his new team, and if he doesn't establish some early chemistry with quarterback Daniel Jones he could become a forgotten man in an offense that also features holdovers Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson, plus new tight end Darren Waller and 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt.
- Round 22, Pick 434 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1344 - 2022 Rank: 766
- Round 23, Pick 447 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 292 - 2022 Rank: 705
Taken in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Robinson was seen as the potential slot replacement for brittle veteran Sterling Shepard. While Shepard predictably got hurt early in the season, the rookie couldn't take advantage as he suffered two knee injuries of his own, including a season-ending ACL tear. Robinson didn't have elite speed or impressive measurables to begin with, so he likely can't afford to return less than 100 percent healthy if he wants to stay in the Giants' plans. New York also added Parris Campbell in the offseason on a one-year deal to make the slot receiver picture even murkier. If Robinson regains the form he flashed last year between knee injuries though, a stretch capped by a nine-reception, 100-yard performance during his final game of the year in Week 11, he could establish himself as the future of the team's receiving corps alongside 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt.
- Round 24, Pick 474 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1570 - 2022 Rank: 319
- Round 25, Pick 487 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2545 - 2022 Rank: 1190
Johnson's on the roster bubble heading into camp after signing a one-year deal with the Jaguars in the offseason. There's likely one more spot to be had behind starter Travis Etienne and rookie third-round pick Tank Bigsby, with Johnson competing against JaMycal Hasty, Snoop Conner and Qadree Ollison for the No. 3 role. Johnson's the most accomplished of the remaining RBs by virtue of having posted 671 scrimmage yards and three TDs as a member of the Browns in 2021. His ability to play on special teams also helps his case, but Johnson got just seven offensive touches in 2022, and he's likely an injury or two away from a prominent offensive role, even if he makes the team.
- Round 26, Pick 514 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2620 - 2022 Rank: 10
- Round 27, Pick 527 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 758 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 28, Pick 554 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 988 - 2022 Rank: 1286
- Round 29, Pick 567 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1003 - 2022 Rank: 1335
- Round 30, Pick 594 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2380 - 2022 Rank: 667
In 2022, Knight had spent most of his time on the Jets' practice squad. However, due to injuries, the undrafted rookie out of North Carolina State, also known as "Bam," was given the chance to debut in Week 12. He made a memorable entry, surpassing 100 scrimmage yards in his first two NFL appearances and even scoring a touchdown with 77 scrimmage yards in his third game. After that, Knight struggled to keep up, and his final four games showed a significant decline in his performance, recording only 70 rushing yards on 39 carries. The Jets are optimistic to have Breece Hall back from ACL surgery by Week 1, signed Dalvin Cook in Augusgt and drafted running back Israel Abanikanda in the fifth round to join Hall and 2021 fourth-round pick Michael Carter. Knight might have to return to the practice squad if he doesn't win a job in camp.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
