In a draft that left the other teams green with envy, Here I Come made their mark by securing an impressive A+ grade. With the 2nd pick in the draft order, they wasted no time in assembling a powerhouse roster that is projected to finish 3rd in the league. Their projected record of 12-2-0 is a testament to their strategic drafting skills, as they managed to snatch up some hidden gems and avoid any major pitfalls.
One of the standout moments of the draft was when Here I Come selected Michael Carter at pick 162, well below his ADP of 127. This steal of a pick is sure to pay dividends throughout the season. However, not every pick was a home run, as they reached a bit for Rashaad Penny at pick 82, who had an ADP of 103. Despite this minor hiccup, Here I Come managed to balance their roster by drafting 3 players from the same team, Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Burrow, and Trey Hendrickson. Perhaps they're hoping for some chemistry on the field, or maybe they just really like that team's jerseys.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 2 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 52
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 2, Pick 39 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 101 - 2022 Rank: 3
Last season was Burrow's second in a row leading the NFL in on-target percentage (76.7) while finishing second in completion percentage (68.3). However, there was a slight dip in these stats in 2022 compared to the previous year, which is perhaps surprising because Burrow decreased his rate of deep throws significantly. In 2022, Burrow threw 20-plus yards downfield on only 7.5 percent of his attempts, ranking him 30th in the league. Meanwhile, his rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage rose to 19.6 percent. Nevertheless, he finished as QB4 in fantasy with the help of five touchdown runs and 257 rushing yards. Burrow also remained efficient on deep throws, tying Geno Smith for the highest on-target rate on 20-plus-yard attempts (60.0 percent). The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line did not meet preseason expectations, which could explain Burrow's increase in dump-offs. However, the team has since signed standout left tackle Orlando Brown and moved Jonah Williams to right tackle. Burrow's top three wide receivers, including Ja'marr Chase, are still on the team, and Irv Smith is replacing Hayden Hurst at tight end. Burrow's efficiency could improve, and even with some expected regression in his rushing touchdowns he stands a decent chance to remain in the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.
- Round 3, Pick 42 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 25 - 2022 Rank: 308
Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 last season just as he was emerging as a dominant workhorse RB, making the injury all the more frustrating. The 2022 second-round pick started slowly, with less than 50 rushing yards in his first three appearances, but the Jets finally shifted gears Week 4 and handed Hall the majority of backfield work. Hall hopes to return by Week 1, and New York's offense looks primed to take a significant step forward in 2023 with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. But the Jets likely will take their time with Hall, especially after signing Dalvin Cook in August. Cook could start Week 1, and even when Hall returns could still steal touches as the No. 2. That said, if Hall returns to his pre-injury form and Rodgers indeed boosts the offense this season, Hall could even see an uptick in scoring opportunities.
- Round 4, Pick 79 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 81 - 2022 Rank: 119
If not for Russell Wilson's struggles and an ankle injury that cost Jeudy two games there would probably be more talk about how impressive Jeudy was in 2022. The former Alabama star is still just 24, yet last year he produced far above the Denver passing game base line while leading the team in receiving volume. The Broncos passing game completed 63.8 percent of its targets at 7.4 yards per target, but Jeudy finished with 67 receptions for 972 yards on 100 targets (67.0 percent catch rate, 9.7 yards per target). With numbers like that, it's no surprise the Broncos exercised the fifth-year option on Jeudy's rookie contract. If Jeudy can produce like that during a disaster season for Wilson then it makes sense to project a breakout season for Jeudy in 2023, especially if new coach Sean Payton can coax improvement out of Wilson. Even if Wilson doesn't improve, though, Jeudy has already shown an ability to produce despite a poor surrounding offense.
- Round 5, Pick 82 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 191 - 2022 Rank: 672
The opposite of a lucky Penny, the San Diego State product has never been able to put together a full, healthy season in the NFL, topping out at 14 games in his rookie campaign and playing just 28 of a possible 66 games in the four years since due to a number of injuries, mainly to his lower body. Seattle let him hobble out the door after his rookie contract expired, and the Eagles were able to sign him to a cheap one-year deal despite the fact the 2018 first-round pick has been incredibly productive the last couple of years when he's been on the field. Penny heads into this season as part of a backfield committee that also includes fellow injury-prone newcomer D'Andre Swift and depth options with plenty of experience in the offense in Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, and the reduced workload that comes with that set-up might just allow the former Seahawk to stay mostly healthy. Penny averaged 6.2 yards per carry over the last two seasons for Seattle, and he gets a massive upgrade in blocking with the elite Philadelphia offensive line in front of him, so the per-touch upside is there if he manages to avoid breaking down again.
- Round 6, Pick 119 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 352 - 2022 Rank: 1503
Mayer probably shouldn't have fallen to the Raiders at the 35th pick. As much as it was fair for NFL teams to find some concern in his athletic testing (4.7-second 40 at 249 pounds), it was never a good basis for letting Mayer fall out of the first round. If Mayer had run any faster, he would have been worth a top-15 pick - his barely disappointing combine was a basis to have Mayer fall out of the top-15, not out of the first round. Dalton Kincaid wasn't nearly as good of a collegiate tight end as Mayer, and Sam LaPorta probably was worse too, yet both players went ahead of Mayer. Mayer will likely be a steal for the Raiders as a result - think a better version of Zach Ertz - so the question of when Mayer breaks out as a fantasy asset might be pending how soon he can overtake the veteran Austin Hooper. Mayer is a good bet to skip the rookie-year struggles that most tight ends face (Mayer caught 42 passes as a true freshman at Notre Dame), but Hooper could be just enough of an obstacle to delay Mayer's full arrival as a fantasy option by a year.
- Round 7, Pick 122 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 146 - 2022 Rank: 653
Selected 27th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft after a prolific college career, Bateman has seen his pro career defined by injuries. After undergoing abdominal surgery in the summer of his rookie season, Bateman missed the first five games. He then sustained a Lisfranc injury early last October, causing him to miss the final 11 weeks of the 2022 season. Bateman showed promise early last year in catching eight of 16 targets for 226 yards and two touchdowns in the first three weeks, supported by two long-distance scores on which his 4.39 speed was evident. Bateman is only 23 and remains a promising prospect, but he confronts greater competition for targets after the Ravens signed WRs Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor and spent a first-round pick on WR Zay Flowers. There should at least be more receiving production to go around in Baltimore this year, as the change in offensive coordinator from Greg Roman to Todd Monken implies a more pass-oriented offense. This modification gives Bateman a chance at a third-year breakout even with more competition for QB Lamar Jackson's attention.
- Round 8, Pick 159 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 251 - 2022 Rank: 134
Mayfield has been right around a 60% passer in his career. As a rookie in 2018, he completed 63.8% and then last year in five games with Sean McVay, he completed 63.6%, the second-best mark of his career. Actually, his 2020 in-season was probably his best (his rookie year was close) when he attempted just 486 passes in a run-heavy offense but had a 26:8 TD: INT. He played with a messed-up shoulder in 2021. And then last year he went between Carolina and the Rams. It seems that during his time in Cleveland, he didn't mesh with Odell Beckham because Beckham was one of the greatest freelancers of our time while Mayfield needs plays to run on schedule. Before Mayfield's injury-plagued 2021 season, Jarvis Landry averaged 79/997/4 (152) in three seasons with him, so Chris Godwin, who is significantly better than Landry was, could easily explode in this offense. Mayfield may not be a very good QB, but with two excellent weapons in Godwin and Mike Evans, he has potential for top-24 QB value.
- Round 9, Pick 162 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 274 - 2022 Rank: 312
Carter regressed as a sophomore last year as his yards per carry dropped to 3.5 after averaging 4.3 as a rookie. His total scrimmage yardage also declined from 964 to 690, despite Breece Hall missing most of the year with an ACL tear after having established himself as the No. 1 option. Once Hall is back to full health there may not be much work left for Carter, especially after the Jets signed Dalvin Cook in August. The 5-foot-8, 201-pound Carter is best suited for a change-of-pace role, as he boasts elusiveness and pass-catching chops, but he'll likely have to compete to secure any such complementary gig behind Hall and Cook.
- Round 10, Pick 199 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1291 - 2022 Rank: 399
- Round 11, Pick 202 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1128 - 2022 Rank: 98
Queen has struggled for much of his time with Baltimore, failing to make a significant positive impact. This offseason, the team both declined his fifth-year option and inked Roquan Smith to a massive extension. The Ravens then proceeded to select Trenton Simpson in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft, either with the plan to replace Queen next offseason or perhaps in middle of the 2023 campaign. For now, we should expect Queen should still have the inside track at one of the starting inside linebacker spots and there should be meaningful production in his profile if he gets enough playing time. There's some reason to believe that his form can improve, as he logged a career-best 117 tackles and five sacks while boosting his coverage ability by holding opposing QBs to a 69.1 rating when targeting him in 2022. While he may be on his way out of Baltimore, Queen should've plenty motivated to ensure he receives a second contract.
- Round 12, Pick 239 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 168 - 2022 Rank: 1506
After his impressive showing at the combine this spring, Mingo was the fifth wide receiver taken in the 2023 NFL Draft, going to Carolina with the 39th overall pick. He displayed his potential by running a 4.46 40, bench-pressing 22 reps, broad-jumping 129 inches and posting a 39.5-inch vertical at 6-foot-2, 220. Although his college career at Ole Miss initially lacked luster, Mingo broke out with a 15-290-3 line in his first three games of his junior season (2021) before fracturing his foot during practice. He made a comeback last year but was far from dominant, finishing second on the team in catches, yards, and touchdowns, behind Malik Heath (who ran a 4.64 40 and went undrafted). Despite the largely underwhelming college career, Mingo has a chance to quickly earn a significant amount of playing time in Carolina, where he may even reprise his college role as an oversized slot receiver. His main competition for snaps figures to come from Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Terrace Marshall in an offense led by coach Frank Reich and quarterback Bryce Young.
- Round 13, Pick 242 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 581 - 2022 Rank: 272
- Round 14, Pick 279 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2490 - 2022 Rank: 124
York was a fourth-round pick last April but didn't look the part come autumn, converting only 75 percent of his field-goal attempts. He even missed three kicks from inside 40 yards, and his struggles weren't just limited to December when the weather in Cleveland was a factor. The Browns were ready to give York another chance this year but then decided against it in late August after a rough preseason. They waived York on Aug. 28 and traded for Dustin Hopkins to replace him.
- Round 15, Pick 282 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1462 - 2022 Rank: 324
- Round 16, Pick 319 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1624 - 2022 Rank: 181
- Round 17, Pick 322 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1299 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 18, Pick 359 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 495 - 2022 Rank: 331
- Round 19, Pick 362 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1308 - 2022 Rank: 293
- Round 20, Pick 399 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 2498 - 2022 Rank: 1668
Going into training camp, Brown sits atop the depth chart as the Rams kicker. Although he could hang onto the job, the undrafted free agent could face additional competition. If the Rams had a high-powered offense, taking a flier on their kicker would make sense, but this could be a year of transition for the team. It may be wise to invest elsewhere at kicker.
- Round 21, Pick 402 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1388 - 2022 Rank: 373
- Round 22, Pick 439 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 282 - 2022 Rank: 388
Claypool was traded midseason from the Steelers to the Bears last year. He played seven games with Chicago but had only 14 receptions for 140 yards as a part-timer in a run-heavy offense. This season, Claypool should slot in behind DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney as the third option in the passing attack. Tight end Cole Kmet will be involved as well, and Claypool will have to work for targets. At 6-foot-4, 238, with 4.42 speed, Claypool has both the size and speed to grow into a big role. Of course, Claypool didn't show much improvement during his years with the Steelers, so it's possible that a breakout will never occur.
- Round 23, Pick 442 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1218 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 24, Pick 479 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 455 - 2022 Rank: 221
- Round 25, Pick 482 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2073 - 2022 Rank: 1500
The 2023 draft class was seen as one of the best ever when it came to tight end depth, so the fact that the Cowboys used a second-round pick to make Schoonmaker the fifth tight end off the board is a strong indicator of his upside. The Michigan product offers good size and in-line blocking skills while also flashing plus athleticism and route-running, which is essentially the template Dallas has been using at the position ever since Jason Witten's heyday. Schoonmaker did deal with plantar fasciitis over the summer, which could limit him in his first training camp, and Jake Ferguson has a similar all-around profile while also having the advantage of an extra year in the system. Schoonmaker might end up being the team's future starter, but he has some obstacles to overcome to make a splash as a rookie.
- Round 26, Pick 519 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1637 - 2022 Rank: 438
- Round 27, Pick 522 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1787 - 2022 Rank: 233
- Round 28, Pick 559 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1422 - 2022 Rank: 918
- Round 29, Pick 562 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1399 - 2022 Rank: 156
- Round 30, Pick 599 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 523 - 2022 Rank: 315
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
