In the SMALL TOWN AMERICA II league, Twisted took the stage as the 20th pick in the draft order, ready to spin their way to fantasy glory. With 30 rounds to navigate, they managed to secure an impressive A- draft grade, leaving their competitors twisted in envy. Projected to finish 7th with a record of 9-5-0, Twisted seems poised to weave their way into the playoffs, with a projected points total of 1988.15. However, they'll have to untangle the toughest schedule in the league, a challenge that even the most skilled fantasy weavers would find daunting. Adding to the intrigue, Twisted will have to navigate a bye week 7 blackout, with 5 of their players taking a well-deserved break.
Twisted's draft strategy was a mix of triumph and tragedy. Their best pick came at 181, when they snagged Deuce Vaughn, who had an ADP of 124. A true steal that left their opponents in knots. However, not all picks were as successful. The worst pick of the draft came at 61, when they selected Jared Goff, who had an ADP of 126. A slight misstep that left them twisted in regret. Adding to the drama, Twisted took a bold approach by drafting 5 players from the same team, including CeeDee Lamb, Deuce Vaughn, Leighton Vander Esch, Donovan Wilson, and Ronald Jones. A risky move that could either lead to fantasy glory or a tangled mess of disappointment.
Share
ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 20 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 11 - 2022 Rank: 34
The 17th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Lamb's numbers have climbed steadily through his first three seasons. He emerged as Dak Prescott's clear top option in 2022 after Amari Cooper was traded to the Browns. Lamb's production really took off last year once Prescott put a thumb injury behind him, and after the Cowboys' Week 9 bye, the wideout averaged nearly 90 yards a game through 11 regular-season and postseason contests while finding the end zone seven times. That breakthrough was more impressive considering the Oklahoma product was essentially a one-man show downfield for Dallas last year, as the front office never found an adequate replacement for Cooper, but that shouldn't be an issue in 2023. Lamb's supporting cast got a significant boost in the spring with the addition of Brandin Cooks, whose ability to stretch the field should open things up underneath on the routes where Lamb thrives. While it is hard to project Lamb's target volume to increase much beyond the 9.2 passes per game he saw in 2022, his efficiency might find another gear if Cooks can draw attention from defenders.
- Round 2, Pick 21 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 16 - 2022 Rank: 23
Not much went right for the Raiders in 2022, but Jacobs' season was one glaring exception. After a merely 'good' first three years to his NFL career, Jacobs went nuts and matched or set career highs in all of carries (340), rushing yardage (1,653), rushing touchdowns (12), yards per carry (4.9), targets (64) and receiving yardage (400) in 2022. Jacobs also logged a career high in snaps, his 783 in 2022 blazing past the previous high of 616 (2020). As much as coach Josh McDaniels struggled to run the Raiders in general, there does seem to be a solid link between the arrival of McDaniels (and Davante Adams) and this new level of production from Jacobs. McDaniels seems to have found a collection of playcalls that allows the two threats to play off of each other, keeping defenses off balance despite knowing either Jacobs or Adams will get the ball on most plays.
- Round 3, Pick 60 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2601 - 2022 Rank: 12
The Rodgers era in Green Bay came to a less-than-ceremonious end, but following in the footsteps of Brett Favre before him, the future HOFer stays wearing green by moving on to the Jets. The 39-year-old didn't come cheap, costing New York a handful of early picks, but that will be unquestionably worth the investment if he can truly stabilize a plus roster that was held down last season by unconscionably poor QB play. There is a question of how much Rodgers has left in the tank, though, as his 12 interceptions in 2022 were the most he'd thrown since 2008, his first year as a starter, and just one off totaling his INT mark for the previous three seasons combined. His 3,695 were likewise a career-low mark for a full season. Much can be blamed on Rodgers' lack of playmakers in Green Bay, but it's not as though his arrival in New York comes without any concerns. The Jets' roster will put Rodgers in prime position to avoid another slump, at least, with Garret Wilson headlining an improved receiving corps. Wilson's 1,103 receiving yards as a rookie came in spite of league-worst QB play, while Allen Lazard joined Rodgers as a free agent, allowing speedster Mecole Hardman to slot in as the No. 3 man. If Breece Hall can get back to full speed from his ACL tear, Rodgers will command a plus grouping of offensive skill players, which when paired with Robert Saleh's defense should set the stage for a long awaited playoff run in New York.
- Round 4, Pick 61 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 115 - 2022 Rank: 8
In many fantasy leagues, Goff was an afterthought going into the 2022 season. He ended up being a very strong fantasy performer. His 29:7 TD:INT was the best of his seven-year career. He also had an impressive 65.1% completion rate. Although that percentage was 2% lower than his previous two seasons, that could be explained away by his 7.6 yards per attempt, which was his highest in the previous four years. Goff completed 12 passes of at least 40 yards while posting 300 yards in five games. The only knock on his season was that he was very different at home versus on the road. He threw 23 touchdown passes at home but only six in away games. Goff has very good weapons going into the season, though Jameson Williams will miss the first six games (suspension). It's clear that the Detroit coaching staff is willing to let their quarterback air the ball out. Since it's possible that Goff's road struggles continue, he may be best viewed as a streaming option in leagues that require one starting quarterback.
- Round 5, Pick 100 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 90 - 2022 Rank: 259
The Browns' displayed immense confidence in Njoku last offseason when they gave him a franchise tag and then signed him to a four-year extension. It was a bit surprising on the heels of back-to-back years with modest receiving production while sharing snaps with fellow tight end Austin Hooper. But then with Hooper moving to Tennessee last year, Njoku took over a three-down role and was on pace for career highs in nearly every significant receiving category before lower-body injuries cost him three full games and parts of two others in the middle of the year. Njoku nonetheless managed personal bests for receptions (58) and catch rate (72.5 percent) and fell only 11 yards shy (628) of his 2018 total. Njoku turns 27 this summer - he's young for a seventh-year pro - and should have a similarly crucial role in the Browns offense, creating upside for big-time production if Deshaun Watson gets back to his Houston level of play at QB. There's more competition for targets after the Browns added WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman and TE Jordan Akins, but the new additions won't necessarily threaten Njoku's standing as a three-down tight end who rarely leaves the field. A more comfortable Watson could see Njoku score more than last year's four touchdowns.
- Round 6, Pick 101 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 84 - 2022 Rank: 643
Thomas played just 10 games the last three seasons. And now he's entering his age-30 season. In each of the three games he played last year, he caught at least five passes, posted 49-65 yards and scored three times. He still showed he could run routes, but he was often catching the ball and going right down without producing yardage after the catch. Is it possible he regains health and moves back into a lead role? Yes. Is it something that the recent past has shown that it is a possibility? That's a hard "no." Regardless of how good Thomas looks, it's also possible that second-year receiver Chris Olave may have taken on the mantle as the Saints' top receiver. The later Thomas falls in drafts, the more the injury and risk ratios are reduced.
- Round 7, Pick 140 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 20 - 2022 Rank: 135
Olave's rookie situation was relatively solid when compared to many of the top rookies wideouts who were stuck with terrible quarterback play. Andy Dalton played capably and understood the importance of getting the ball to his star receiver. As a result, Olave never had fewer than 41 yards in a game. However, after a strong start to the season in which Olave had at least 80 yards in four of his first 10 games, he didn't surpass 65 yards in any of his last five contests. Even though he had 13 catches of more than 20 yards (and four of those catches gained at least 40 yards), he only had a 17th-percentile yards after the catch rate. That is something he'll need to improve on in 2023. New QB Derek Carr, who's expected to play behind a weak pass-protecting OL, could hinder Olave's downfield potential. Carr will likely need to pound Olave with targets in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Olave is already a top-20 receiver, but if he can work well with Carr, he could end up in the top 15. If Olave's QB showed more big-play potential, the sophomore wideout would be considered a top-10 WR.
- Round 8, Pick 141 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 177 - 2022 Rank: 69
Bass has proven to be one of the league's most accurate kickers since joining the Bills as a sixth-round pick back in 2020. He's logged back-to-back seasons with at least an 87 percent field-goal conversion rate, with 57, 51 and 48 PATs over the last three years. The weather conditions in Buffalo aren't ideal for a kicker, but Bass makes up for it in opportunities within one of the top offenses in the league. He's converted either 27 or 28 in each of his pro seasons.
- Round 9, Pick 180 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 190 - 2022 Rank: 53
Koo has proven to be one of the league's finest kickers over the course of three and a half seasons with Atlanta. Despite being tied to subpar offenses, he's often been a top fantasy performer, albeit with some help from the team's dome. He has demonstrated his prowess from 50-plus yards, boasting an impressive record of 20-for-25, and he's also gone 31-for-39 from 40-49 yards. Koo's talent keeps him on the fantasy map again this year even with Falcons QB Desmond Ridder projecting as one of the lesser starting quarterbacks in the league. If the Falcons offense can merely become competent behind a strong running game, Koo is good enough to place among the top fantasy kickers.
- Round 10, Pick 181 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 242 - 2022 Rank: 1562
Tiny by NFL running back standards, Vaughn's 5-foot-5 frame didn't stop him from being incredibly productive at Kansas State, and the Cowboys decided to invest a sixth-round pick in him rather than try to sign him as a priority UDFA. There are advantages to being a David in a land of Goliaths, and Darren Sproles made a career out of getting lost behind his offensive line before exploding into open space, but Vaughn has a lot to prove before he'll be at that level. If he's going to carve out a role it will likely come via his plus receiving skills. Dallas' backfield is wide open behind Tony Pollard, and while Vaughn almost certainly won't be a factor on early downs, he could inherit a sliver of the multi-purpose role Pollard held before ascending to the starting spot.
- Round 11, Pick 220 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 890 - 2022 Rank: 418
Andersen, a 2022 second-round pick, began his rookie season in a reserve role but steadily increased his workload as the season progressed. Ultimately, he replaced Mykal Walker as a starting inside linebacker after Atlanta's Week 14 bye and posted 21 tackles across his final four games. He finished his rookie campaign with 69 stops, one forced fumble, and one pass defended. Andersen is known for his speed, which should allow him to stick with opposing backs and tight ends in coverage. It could also mean an increase in pass-rushing responsibility, as he had zero sacks in his rookie campaign. Overall, Andersen should be viewed as a full-time starter heading into his sophomore season, though Walker remains on the roster and could be a threat to Andersen's role if he stumbles.
- Round 12, Pick 221 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1205 - 2022 Rank: 298
Vander Esch had his most productive season as a rookie in 2018 and has had his progress slowed since by a series of upper body injuries. He was on pace to top the 100-tackle mark in 2022 until he was sidelined by a neck issue from Weeks 16-18. Despite his checkered health history, the Cowboys signed the 27-year-old to a one-year, $2 million prove-it deal this offseason. Given his experience, Vander Esch will likely begin 2023 with a starting role, but the team also boasts a collection of young, athletic talent at linebacker that now includes 2023 third-round pick DeMarvion Overshown. Add in his extended injury history and Vander Esch seems likely to see his snap count diminish this season.
- Round 13, Pick 260 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 528 - 2022 Rank: 849
- Round 14, Pick 261 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 237 - 2022 Rank: 380
Pierce is coming off a boom-or-bust rookie season. The 2022 second-round pick out of Cincinnati caught 41 of 78 targets for 593 yards and two touchdowns, including seven catches for 243 yards and a touchdown on his 15 deep targets. Pierce ranked third on the team in targets as a rookie, but the speedy big-play threat is penciled into a starting role opposite Michael Pittman (141 targets in 2022) after the Colts let Parris Campbell (91 targets) walk in free agency. Indianapolis added slot receivers Josh Downs and Isaiah McKenzie to replace Campbell, but the team's most impactful offseason changes came under center. The Colts parted ways with Matt Ryan and brought in fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson, as well as free agent Gardner Minshew. Richardson's strong arm and Pierce's 4.41 speed could make for an intriguing downfield combination, but it remains to be seen if the raw rookie has the accuracy to consistently link up with the second-year wideout.
- Round 15, Pick 300 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 136 - 2022 Rank: 415
Henry's regression in his second season with the Patriots followed a trend set by the entire Mac Jones-led offense. After producing nine touchdowns in 2021, Henry scoring just twice in 2022 can be viewed as emblematic of New England's entire disappointing season. New offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien could spark some life into the passing game, though the fresh arrival Mike Gesicki could threaten Henry's domination of offensive snaps. On the other hand, Henry and Gesicki would make a dangerous combo in two-TE formations, and O'Brien is no stranger to scheming up 12-man personnel rotations. In all, Henry figures to remain a TD-dependent option for fantasy production, so his success will depend largely on Jones bouncing back after throwing just 14 scores last year.
- Round 16, Pick 301 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1186 - 2022 Rank: -
Campbell is an off-ball linebacker, which made him something of a curious chance at 18th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, there are certain athletic traits that he possesses that simply can't be taught - highlighted by a 4.65 40-yard dash, 128-inch broad jump, and a 6.74-second three-cone drill - so that isn't to say he won't be productive. His draft capital also all but ensures that he'll get regular reps among the Lions' linebacker corps immediately. After that, nothing is guaranteed. It will be interesting to see how Campbell adjusts to the NFL after he didn't post particularly compelling numbers in run defense or as a pass rusher while at Iowa. Specifically, he never recorded more than one sack in a season and never had more than 5.5 tackles for loss in a single season.
- Round 17, Pick 340 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 254 - 2022 Rank: 92
Fournette will no longer be in Tampa Bay. Although he had 3.5 yards per carry last year, which was his worst since 2018, the Bucs offensive line was terrible in scheme and run blocking. So his performance may not be indicative of how the 28 year old is actually playing. However, some of the blame may be on him, as he had a seventh-percentile broken-tackle rate and 25th-percentile yards after contact. With Tom Brady getting the ball out at a very quick rate, Fournette set career highs with 73 receptions, 523 yards, and three touchdowns. Overall, he had 1,191 scrimmage yards on 262 touches. But after posting at least 15 PPR points in four of his first six games, he only did so once in his last 10 games. If his landing spot is favorable, drafting him outside of the top-20 running backs makes sense. But he could enter the decline phase of his career quickly, so there is a definite risk.
- Round 18, Pick 341 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 567 - 2022 Rank: 345
- Round 19, Pick 380 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1240 - 2022 Rank: 362
- Round 20, Pick 381 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1249 - 2022 Rank: 166
- Round 21, Pick 420 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1844 - 2022 Rank: 230
- Round 22, Pick 421 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 576 - 2022 Rank: 139
Wilson has overcome the odds as a sixth-round pick in 2019 to become a key part of the Dallas secondary. The 28-year-old rebounded from an injury-marred 2021 campaign, topping 100 tackles for the first time in his four-year career last season. He possesses a versatile skillset, as he regularly gets to the quarterback on blitzes and tallied a career-best five sacks in 2022. He rounds out his profile with good coverage skills, making him an outstanding fit for coordinator Dan Quinn's defense. Wilson was rewarded with a three-year contract this offseason worth up to $24 million. If he can stay healthy, Wilson again should post excellent all-around production again in 2023.
- Round 23, Pick 460 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 546 - 2022 Rank: 266
- Round 24, Pick 461 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 393 - 2022 Rank: 986
- Round 25, Pick 500 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2337 - 2022 Rank: 391
Agnew's a key contributor on special teams, but his role in Jacksonville's offense will likely remain limited to gadget plays. The Jaguars let Marvin Jones walk but will be replacing him with Calvin Ridley, leaving Agnew as the team's WR4 at best behind Ridley, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. Agnew had 23 catches for 187 yards and three touchdowns on 30 targets last season while adding 86 rushing yards on 12 attempts. His career high in scrimmage yards is 340, and Agnew's unlikely to see a drastic change in role at age 28. Agnew averaged 26.0 yards per kick return and 8.2 yards per punt return last season. He has four punt return TDs and two kickoff return TDs in his six-year NFL career.
- Round 26, Pick 501 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1642 - 2022 Rank: 394
- Round 27, Pick 540 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 759 - 2022 Rank: 1253
- Round 28, Pick 541 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 2511 - 2022 Rank: 450
McCloud's main role on the 49ers is as a kick returner, but he proved a useful took in coach Kyle Shanahan's playbook as he had 18 touches for 321 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in 17 games last season. McCloud will continue to return kicks and serve as the No. 4 wide receiver. A injury could give him a bigger role, but the 49ers have so many weapons that even in that scenario he might not get consistent targets.
- Round 29, Pick 580 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1795 - 2022 Rank: 292
- Round 30, Pick 581 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 327 - 2022 Rank: 995
After a frustrating end to his time in Tampa Bay, Jones signed a one-year deal last offseason to try to turn his career around in Kansas City. While the decision did get him a Super Bowl ring, he had a career low in touches as seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco outperformed Jones in training camp and never looked back. Jones topped 1,000 scrimmage yards as recently as 2020, but at this stage he looks primarily like an early down option who relies more on athleticism and elusiveness to gain yards than size and power. He heads to Dallas looking to win a backup role behind Tony Pollard, and while nothing is guaranteed, the departure of Ezekiel Elliott does leave more than 200 carries up for grabs in the Cowboys' backfield. If Jones shows he still has something left in the tank, he could win a significant share of those available totes as the team tries to make sure Pollard doesn't wear down in his first season as the unquestioned starter.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
