In the SMALL TOWN AMERICA II draft, the Tampa Hobo Camp had the privilege of selecting 8th out of 20 teams. With 30 rounds to fill, they certainly had their work cut out for them. Unfortunately, their draft grade of D suggests that their efforts may have fallen a bit short. The experts predict a lackluster 5-9-0 record for the team, landing them in a disappointing 13th place. It seems like the Tampa Hobo Camp may be setting up camp at the bottom of the standings this season.
While the Tampa Hobo Camp did manage to make a solid pick with Allen Lazard at 168, surpassing his ADP of 127, they stumbled with their selection of Anthony Richardson at 73, who had an ADP of 120. It's always a gamble in the draft, and it seems like Lady Luck wasn't on their side this time. Adding insult to injury, the team ended up drafting not one, not two, but four players from the same team. Perhaps they were hoping for some kind of magical synergy, but it's more likely they just weren't paying attention. With a schedule difficulty ranked as the 11th toughest out of 20 teams and five players on bye week 13, the Tampa Hobo Camp is in for a rough ride this season. Looks like they'll be hobbling their way to 13th place, living up to their team name in more ways than one.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 8 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 3 - 2022 Rank: 24
Hill's record of exceptional on-field play has been consistent enough that his first year in Miami may actually be flying under the radar. Wide receivers usually see a dip in production in their first year with a new team, but Hill's inaugural season with the Dolphins saw him rack up a career-high 1,710 receiving yards (11th most in NFL history) to go with eight total touchdowns. The speedster managed that feat despite enduring tumultuous injuries at the quarterback position, and catching passes from a third-stringer by the end of the season. Part of the credit needs to go to coach Mike McDaniel's outstanding offensive scheme, and to Tua Tagovailoa's play under center. But the ultimate takeaway is that Hill is a game-breaker still in his prime. In 17 games last season, Hill broke 100 yards on seven occasions and led the entire NFL with 3.20 yards per route run. He seems a likely candidate for positive touchdown regression, especially if Tagovailoa can put together an fully healthy season. With Jaylen Waddle present to keep defenses honest but no other target competition of real significance, Hill finds himself in the perfect situation to once again produce Top-5 wide receiver stats.
- Round 2, Pick 33 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 56 - 2022 Rank: 63
Despite dealing with some nagging injuries last year, Harris managed to play all 17 games and scored 10 touchdowns for the second time in two pro seasons, albeit within the confines of a sluggish Pittsburgh offense. The 2021 first-round pick fell shy of 4.0 yards per carry for a second straight year, with big plays few and far between while his receiving volume dipped from 93 targets in 2021 to 54 in 2022. Part of that was due to the Steelers throwing less and part due to backup Jaylen Warren getting a lot of playing time on passing downs. Warren is back this season and should have a sizable role off the bench again, but there's still room for Harris to have his best year yet if the Steelers take a step forward in QB Kenny Pickett's second pro year. As much as the young quarterback remains a huge question mark, the team's blocking should be better after Pittsburgh added former Eagles G Isaac Seumalo, rookie OT Broderick Jones (14th overall pick) and 264-pound rookie TE Darnell Washington (93rd pick). The Steelers could have above-average blocking for the first time in years. The lack of backfield depth behind the top two on the depth chart leaves room for Harris to push for 300 touches even if Warren also has a regular role in the offense.
- Round 3, Pick 48 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2415 - 2022 Rank: 486
A 2020 second-round pick, Dobbins has played only eight games since his rookie season, but has a big opportunity ahead in the final year of his contract. He was also a breakout candidate the past two years, but a major, multi-ligament knee injury ended his 2021 campaign before it started and had a major impact on his 2022. Early last year, Dobbins missed the first two weeks and then averaged only 8.8 carries for 30.8 yards in his first four games. After that, he missed six games to have an arthroscopic procedure on his surgically repaired knee, later returning in December revitalized to average 14.3 carries for 99.3 yards (7.0 YPC) over a four-game stretch. Dobbins now appears locked in for the starting job under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who doesn't figure to call as many runs as former OC Greg Roman, but should find a way to get his lead back more involved in the passing game (Dobbins has only 25 career receptions). The Ravens lack depth behind Dobbins, with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill the returning veterans and no incoming draft picks at the position.
- Round 4, Pick 73 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 44 - 2022 Rank: 1493
The Colts couldn't pass up Richardson's tremendous athletic upside with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The rookie out of Florida is raw, having completed only 53.8 percent of his passes last season, but Richardson has one of the most impressive physical profiles ever among QB prospects. Richarson has a cannon for an arm at 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds, plus he boasts 4.44 speed and set the QB record at the NFL Combine with a 40.5-inch vertical jump. Indianapolis also brought in Gardner Minshew in free agency, but it's likely just a matter of time until Richardson is handed the reins to the offense, and the rookie should be involved in short yardage and goal-line packages from the get-go. Even under the tutelage of head coach Shane Steichen, who oversaw the meteoric rise of fellow dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts as Philadelphia's offensive coordinator over the past two seasons, Richardson will likely struggle as a passer early in his NFL career, especially with few established targets to throw to besides Michael Pittman in a run-first offense centered around RB Jonathan Taylor. Still, Richardson's rushing ability (nine rushing TDs in 2022) makes him the most intriguing member of this rookie QB class from a fantasy perspective, as Justin Fields proved last year that you don't need to be a proficient passer to find significant fantasy success as a QB in the modern NFL.
- Round 5, Pick 88 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 75 - 2022 Rank: 60
A move from Arizona to Jacksonville in free agency last year helped Kirk take his game to the next level. Kirk established himself as the favorite target for QB Trevor Lawrence en route to career highs in targets (133), catches (84), receiving yards (1,108) and touchdowns (eight). Repeating that volume will be difficult in 2023, as Kirk will have to compete for targets with Calvin Ridley, who has played only five games since the 2020 season but posted 1,374 receiving yards in that 2020 campaign. The Jaguars are also bringing back Zay Jones and Evan Engram, who ranked second and third behind Kirk in targets last season, with 121 and 98, respectively. A potential drop in targets could be canceled out by improved efficiency for Kirk in 2023, as Lawrence could take another step forward in his third NFL season, and defenses will likely have to divert attention away from Kirk to contain Ridley. Kirk turns 27 in November, so he's in no danger of losing a step due to age as he enters the second season of his four-year, $72 million deal with the Jaguars.
- Round 6, Pick 113 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 159 - 2022 Rank: 1484
Beckham missed all last season to rehab his ACL tear from the previous year's Super Bowl, waiting until April before signing a one-year deal with Baltimore worth $15 million, mostly guaranteed. It's a surprisingly large number for a wideout four years removed from this last 1,000-yard season, and he'll even have the chance to earn an additional $3 million in incentives. Beckham, 30, is a big part of Baltimore's passing-game makeover under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, whose brief tenure with the team has also been marked by QB Lamar Jackson signing an extension and the front office using a first-round pick on WR Zay Flowers. While both Jackson and Beckham seem happy, fantasy managers should be wary of Beckham's injury history and decrease in production. Even if he returns to form and stays healthy, he'll have sturdy competition for targets in what figures to be a balanced offense. In addition to Flowers and Beckham, the Ravens have 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman coming back from a foot injury and TE Mark Andrews looming as an annual threat to lead the team in targets. Beckham might help the Ravens more than he helps fantasy teams.
- Round 7, Pick 128 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 157 - 2022 Rank: 123
The Rams had a terrible offensive line last year, and their running game was stuck in neutral. As a result, Stafford paid the price with 29 sacks in 11 games. Last year, the team added Allen Robinson in free agency, but either the team didn't properly use him, or Robinson was on the downside of his career. So with very little going his way, Stafford was consistently getting hit, which kept him unable to put up consistent fantasy points. Stafford's 10:8 TD:INT ratio was his worst since 2012. And due to the constant pressure, his 6.9 yards per attempt was significantly lower than any of his last three seasons. Although Stafford had at least 240 passing yards in each of his first six games, he failed to crack 190 in any of his last three. He then suffered a neck injury and was shut down for the season. Going into 2023, Stafford may see an improvement from the offensive line, as a number of starters will return from injuries, and the Rams added guard Steve Avila in the second round of the draft. Coach Sean McVay will have had time to consider different ways for Stafford to attack defenses while hopefully getting the ball out of his hands quicker to keep him healthy. Still, the Rams seem a bit of a rebuilding mess. Stafford shouldn't be considered more than a backup in typical fantasy leagues.
- Round 8, Pick 153 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 145 - 2022 Rank: 718
Mitchell is an incredibly talented running back. He had an excellent 89th percentile broken tackle rate, and when he was in a rotation of Christian McCaffrey, he often piled up significant yardage in limited opportunities. However, he was injured three separate times last year. And that came after a rookie season in which he missed time as well. Obviously, injuries are difficult to predict, but the amount of injuries he's had in such a short time makes him a significant injury risk. And the fact that he was getting hurt in a backup role is even more concerning. If he was able to stay healthy and had to take over the starting role for McCaffrey for a period of time, he would be a strong fantasy option. However, Mitchell carries quite a bit of risk.
- Round 9, Pick 168 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 156 - 2022 Rank: 162
Lazard joins quarterback Aaron Rodgers in moving from Green Bay to New York this season. Garrett Wilson is the clear No. 1 option for the passing game, and while no obvious No. 2 wideout stands out, Lazard has the likely inside track following the abrupt retirement of Corey Davis in August. Mecole Hardman will give him his biggest challenge with only Randall Cobb among the top-4 WR. Lazard is a uniquely superior blocker among the Jets' receiving corps, which should guarantee him a sizeable weekly snap share. His connection with Rodgers also shouldn't be overlooked as a mere narrative, as his 6-foot-5 frame and 14 touchdowns the last two seasons are proof that he's trusted by his QB in the red zone. Lazard's four-year, $44 million contract is also incentive to get him involved early and often.
- Round 10, Pick 193 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 58 - 2022 Rank: 379
Mattison's value in the last few years has simply been that he did pretty well when Dalvin Cook missed time. However, he was inconsistent in the games he had to take over as a starter. With Cook no longer on the team, Mattison enters the season as the lead running back. As he's shown in limited opportunities, the weekly upside can be great, but without him having a consistent role in the past, it's unclear how he'll function in that role. He's never had more than 134 carries in any of his four years in the league. After averaging 4.6 and 4.5 yards per carry in his first two years, he dropped to 3.8 and 3.7 in the last two years. Although he had an impressive 79th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was only in the 34th percentile in yards after contact, which may mean that some of his early-career explosiveness has been lacking. He could have competition from players the team has drafted in each of the past two years, Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride, in addition to Kene Nwangwu. Mattison is attractive for fantasy based on the potential for heavy volume. However, his recent production and potential competition could be problematic.
- Round 11, Pick 208 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 32 - 2022 Rank: 64
Stevenson's raw athletic numbers don't jump off the page, but he makes up for a lack of elite speed or quickness with contact balance, vision and a versatile skillset. Stevenson's style breeds elusiveness with the ball in his hands, and he's proven to be a superior pass-catcher as well. Last season, he added a 69-421-1 line through the air in addition to 210 carries for 1,040 yards and five scores on the ground. Stevenson passed the eye-test as New England's undisputed RB1. Damien Harris left for Buffalo, but the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott in August. Stevenson's workload might not increase much this season with Elliott vying for touches, but he's still the lead back and first receiving option out of the backfield. As long as Elliott doesn't snipe too many goal-line carries, the explosive Stevenson is efficient enough to make up for a slight dip volume.
- Round 12, Pick 233 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 77 - 2022 Rank: 148
Mostert re-signs in Miami to return to an ideal scheme fit with coach Mike McDaniel, and also one of the league's more crowded backfields. He and fellow 49ers holdover Jeff Wilson figure to open the season as effectively a 1a/1b tandem, regardless of whoever is officially the starter, just as was the case last season whenever both veterans were simultaneously available. Wilson saw more work as a pass-catcher in 2022 while Mostert's skillset allows him to manufacture big plays more regularly. However, Mostert's role could overlap more with rookie third-round pick Devon Achane. Both are speedsters of slighter frames, although Mostert is far closer to a back or prototypical size than Achane. It seems almost a likely event that the Dolphins ultimately roll out a three-headed committee, one which would almost certainly prove productive, but make week-to-week performances difficult to predict.
- Round 13, Pick 248 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 160 - 2022 Rank: 269
Now in the second year of a two-year contract with the Chargers, Everett heads into 2023 after a Chargers debut that was more busy than it was effective. Everett's target rate was excellent - 87 targets on 648 snaps should be major currency in such an enviable passing game - but the returns for those targets were underwhelming. It's a theme throughout Everett's career: despite being fast and making the occasional big play, his efficiency leaves something to be desired. To be fair to Everett, his 2022 production looks better if you include his performance in the Chargers' wildcard round loss to the Jaguars. If you include that game, then Everett finished 2022 with 64 catches for 663 yards and five touchdowns on 95 targets - an improved 67.4 percent catch rate at 7.0 yards per target compared to 66.7 percent at 6.4 YPT from the regular season - but it's worth remembering that Mike Williams missed that game and the Jaguars clearly sold out to stop Keenan Allen (six catches for 61 yards on 13 targets) and Austin Ekeler (two catches for eight yards on four targets). Everett is likely an excellent fantasy TE2 who could provide TE1 returns with a little luck, just don't expect the Jaguars game to be the norm.
- Round 14, Pick 273 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 236 - 2022 Rank: 48
After averaging 21 made field goals between 2019-2021, the Seahawks offense finally had a successful year. As a result, Myers connected on 34 field goals, which was the most he has had in any of his eight seasons. Although he's had a couple down years from an accuracy standpoint, Myers has made at least 91.7 percent of his field goals in three of the last five years. He just signed a four-year contract, so he has job security. And if the Seahawks continue their positive direction on offense, he should be a top-eight kicking option.
- Round 15, Pick 288 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 215 - 2022 Rank: 1662
With Robbie Gould no longer with the 49ers, the team drafted Moody with a third-round pick. With that type of investment, Moody, who converted 87 percent of his field-goal attempts at Michigan, has a strong chance to enter the year as the starter. Due to the explosiveness of the 49ers offense, Moody should have a solid weekly scoring floor, and is worth considering as a top-12 option at his position.
- Round 16, Pick 313 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 257 - 2022 Rank: 142
Hill remained in the hybrid role he's been in for years. But last year, his primary job was running the ball. He threw 19 passes and caught nine balls, but he rushed 96 times. HIll was excellent as a runner, averaging a career-high 6.0 yards per carry. Hill will realize his best fantasy value in leagues where he is TE-eligible. But going into his age-33 season, it's fair to question whether he'll enter the decline phase of his career. However, he didn't show those signs last year. Consistent usage is probably the bigger problem, especially if new Saint QB Derek Carr stays healthy. Hill could see an increase in work if Alvin Kamara receives league discipline based on his July 31 court case from a battery charge. Hill is an intriguing upside pick should you miss out on the more standard, Top-10 tight end options.
- Round 17, Pick 328 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 123 - 2022 Rank: 598
When healthy, Edwards has been a dependable player for Baltimore, providing a reliable source of power running off the bench and making several starts when J.K. Dobbins couldn't play. While limited to just nine games last season after an ACL tear the year before, Edwards once again managed to average 5.0 yards per carry -- a mark he's never failed to reach. The arrival of new offensive coordinator Todd Monken may create some challenges and puts the streak in serious jeopardy. Former OC Greg Roman's heavy-package runs suited Edwards well, allowing him to focus on running between the tackles while defenses had to account for the threat of QB Lamar Jackson running around the end. Monken's expected emphasis on the passing game likely will come with fewer option plays, which means Edwards must demonstrate competence as a blocker and/or pass catcher to earn significant playing time. If the Ravens run less, as anticipated, Dobbins' superiority in these areas could result in fewer snaps for Edwards, especially since he is in the final year of his contract following a pay cut.
- Round 18, Pick 353 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1231 - 2022 Rank: 333
- Round 19, Pick 368 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 368 - 2022 Rank: 648
Minshew signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Colts in the offseason, and he'll compete for the starting job in training camp against 2023 fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson. With 24 starts under his belt over the past four seasons - 20 with Jacksonville, and four with Philadelphia - Minshew has plenty of NFL experience, which could give him the early edge over the raw Richardson. It's likely just a matter of time until Richardson takes over under center, but Minshew's career 44:15 TD: INT suggests he could be a serviceable option in two-QB or Superflex formats if he begins the year atop the depth chart. RB Jonathan Taylor is the focal point of the Colts' offense, but Indianapolis also has an established No. 1 WR in Michael Pittman and a pair of intriguing youngsters behind Pittman in 2022 second-round pick Alec Pierce and 2023 third-rounder Josh Downs. Unfortunately for Minshew, Richardson's dual-threat skill set makes him a strong candidate to sub in under center for goal-line packages, which could cut into Minshew's TD opportunities even if the veteran beats out the rookie for the starting job.
- Round 20, Pick 393 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1221 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 21, Pick 408 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 268 - 2022 Rank: 1512
Although the Browns had more pressing needs on the defensive line, they selected Tillman in the third round of April's draft. The team had already traded for WR Elijah Moore earlier in the offseason but nonetheless decided to take a chance on the 6-foot-3, 215-pound Tillman, who could be a red-zone threat for quarterback Deshaun Watson. Tillman found the end zone 12 times in 2021 at Tennessee, but he was then hindered by an ankle injury in 2022. Tillman has a challenging task ahead of him trying to prove himself among a crowded position group, and he'll likely start his career fourth or fifth on the depth chart. Moore, Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones are favorites to handle the top three spots, likely leaving Tillman to compete with Marquise Goodwin and others for depth roles.
- Round 22, Pick 433 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1903 - 2022 Rank: 1520
- Round 23, Pick 448 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2522 - 2022 Rank: 1527
Not many expected Davis to go as high as he did in the 2023 draft, but it was obvious why the Chargers took the TCU standout in the fourth round (125th overall). As much as Davis should provide a handful of productive wide receiver snaps off the bench, for all practical purposes he was targeted for his punt return abilities. Davis was only a rotational target at TCU, even as a fifth-year player in 2022, and that doesn't bode well for his ability to draw targets in the NFL, especially on a team with as many distinguished receivers as the Chargers. Even so, Davis could change games if his punt returning ability translates at the NFL level. Davis scored a touchdown for every nine punts he returned at TCU, averaging 15.0 yards per return and crossing the goal line five times. He's certainly someone to keep in mind in return yardage leagues.
- Round 24, Pick 473 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1489 - 2022 Rank: 261
- Round 25, Pick 488 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 442 - 2022 Rank: 305
- Round 26, Pick 513 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1367 - 2022 Rank: 452
- Round 27, Pick 528 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2239 - 2022 Rank: 1536
- Round 28, Pick 553 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1232 - 2022 Rank: 708
- Round 29, Pick 568 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1171 - 2022 Rank: 716
- Round 30, Pick 593 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1258 - 2022 Rank: 506
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
