In the SMALL TOWN AMERICA II draft, Bird Dog Mash made quite the impression, and by 'impression' we mean they left a lasting mark on the draft grade scale with a solid F. With a projected finish of 17th and a projected record of 1-13-0, it's safe to say that Bird Dog Mash is aiming for the stars... and landing in the dirt. They managed to secure a total of 30 players, but quantity doesn't always mean quality, as evidenced by their questionable picks.
One shining moment for Bird Dog Mash was their best pick of the draft, when they managed to snag Jonathan Taylor at 30, despite an ADP of 16. It's a small victory in a sea of questionable decisions. Speaking of questionable decisions, their worst pick award goes to Daniel Jones, who was drafted at 51, despite having an ADP of 98. Maybe Bird Dog Mash knows something we don't, or maybe they just enjoy keeping us on our toes. And let's not forget the bold move of drafting not one, not two, but three players from the same team. Marcus Jones, Nick Folk, and Tyquan Thornton are now the Bird Dog Mash's very own triple threat. With a whopping five cornerbacks drafted, Bird Dog Mash is clearly taking the 'defense wins championships' mantra to heart. Or maybe they just really, really like cornerbacks. Either way, they're certainly not following the league average of 1.7 CBs drafted. Good luck to Bird Dog Mash this season, they're going to need it!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 11 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: 1498
One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.
- Round 2, Pick 30 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 49 - 2022 Rank: 236
Taylor has more fantasy risk than any of the top running backs this year thanks to offseason ankle surgery and a contract dispute. He started training camp on the PUP list, still working his way back to full strength after a season-ending high ankle sprain in Week 15 last year. His contract situation might be an even bigger issue. Taylor demanded a contract extension; the Colts refused but gave him permission to seek a trade. He's since moved to the regular-season PUP list, making him ineligible for the first four games of the season, though the Colts can still trade him in the meantime. If he returns to the Colts, he'll look for a delayed bounce-back year after last season's disappointment. Expectations were sky high heading into 2022 after he led the league in rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18) in 2021, but his season was derailed by injuries and poor play from the imploding Indianapolis offense. A Week 4 ankle sprain limited his effectiveness for a time, but his production also suffered from the ineptitude of the players around him -- the biggest culprit being QB Matt Ryan. Taylor's touchdowns dropped to four after he posted 12 and 20 in his first two seasons, and his 3.6 yards per target was less than half of his career average of 7.3. Quarterback remains a question mark for Indianapolis this season, but it's hard to imagine fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson faring worse than the now-retired Ryan. The big questions now are whether Taylor will be ready to play by Week 5 and if he'll still be a member of the Colts at that point.
- Round 3, Pick 51 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 105 - 2022 Rank: 11
Jones wound up as a top-10 fantasy quarterback last year thanks to his rushing production, as his passing totals remained flat under new coach Brian Daboll. He did improve his accuracy though and threw fewer interceptions, as Daboll largely removed the downfield pass from the playbook and had the 26-year-old dink and dunk to keep the chains moving. While Jones may not have the downfield accuracy to test secondaries consistently, he also didn't have a lot to work with as injuries decimated an already lackluster receiving corps. The Giants made some effort to address that in the offseason, notably adding tight end Darren Waller in a trade with the Raiders. Jones was given a four-year, $160 million contract in March, which is a pretty clear sign Daboll think there's more untapped potential in the 2019 first-round pick, but expecting him to turn into the next Josh Allen is probably asking too much. As a positive, the resolution of Saquon Barkley's contract status (a one year deal) should maintain balance in the Giants' attack. Barkley's presence makes it difficult to for defenses to also spy on Jones' scrambling opportunities.
- Round 4, Pick 70 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 169 - 2022 Rank: 40
Last year, Tucker's PAT volume decreased due to the Ravens' difficulty finishing off drives and putting the ball in the end zone. Naturally, he compensated by leading the league in field-goal attempts (43), field-goals made (37), and attempts from 50-plus yards (14). Even though he's averaged 7.2 tries from 50-plus yards in his 11 NFL seasons, Tucker remains the all-time leader in career FG percentage (90.5). He'll once again enter a season universally regarded as one of the top two or three fantasy options at his position, offering an unmatched combination of accuracy and leg strength.
- Round 5, Pick 91 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 620 - 2022 Rank: 451
- Round 6, Pick 110 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 645 - 2022 Rank: 978
- Round 7, Pick 131 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1891 - 2022 Rank: 751
- Round 8, Pick 150 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 790 - 2022 Rank: 1120
- Round 9, Pick 171 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1885 - 2022 Rank: 202
- Round 10, Pick 190 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 704 - 2022 Rank: 1176
- Round 11, Pick 211 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 755 - 2022 Rank: 871
- Round 12, Pick 230 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 89 - 2022 Rank: 141
Meyers continues to ascend as an NFL wideout, a conversion project that started in 2016 after he arrived to North Carolina State as a quarterback recruit. Perhaps Meyers will unveil a trick pass now and then, but at this point he's established himself as a natural wide receiver. After primarily lining up as a slot receiver in New England, Josh McDaniels might envision more of an all-around role for Meyers with the Raiders, if only because it's impossible to see how slot specialist Hunter Renfrow would see the field if it were Meyers in the slot. It's not a given that Meyers thrives outside -- his 4.63-second 40 is not normally what you look for in a boundary wideout -- but his lack of speed can be mitigated somewhat if the Raiders line up with tight splits. If the Raiders line up in narrow formations then it places Meyers a little closer to the slot than if he were lining up closer to the sideline, and perhaps that's all the accommodation he needs. With 303 targets on his last 2,180 snaps (118 per 850 snaps) and a three-year, $33 million contract in hand it's safe to say that Meyers will be busy with the Raiders one way or another. As long as Jimmy Garoppolo (foot) stays healthy, Meyers should be a decent bet to surpass 70 catches on the year, even with Davante Adams raking ahead of him.
- Round 13, Pick 251 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 946 - 2022 Rank: 1784
- Round 14, Pick 270 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 79 - 2022 Rank: 175
Engram earned a franchise tag this spring and then a three-year, $42 million contract this summer, cashing in big after his first season in Jacksonville concluded with career highs for catches (73) and receiving yards (766). The 2017 first-round pick mostly struggled in five seasons with the Giants, dropping 17 passes in his last two years with the team that drafted him, but Engram cut his drop total down to five with the Jaguars in 2022. Engram's 4.42 speed fits well into a Jacksonville offense predicated around quick passes by QB Trevor Lawrence. But Engram is undersized for a tight end at 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, which helps explain why he's surpassed last season's total of four TDs only once in his six-year career. Case in point, Engram tied for fourth among TEs with 98 targets last year, but only nine of those came in the red zone, which ranked outside the top 20 at the position. Wide receivers Christian Kirk (133) and Zay Jones (121) both had more targets than Engram last season, and with WR Calvin Ridley now joining the offense there are a lot of players deserving of Lawrence's attention. Engram's 2023 target count could decline.
- Round 15, Pick 291 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 211 - 2022 Rank: 409
Chark hasn't done much for fantasy managers since breaking out in his second season (2019) for 1,008 receiving yards and eight TDs. He was stuck in terrible Jacksonville offenses until last year, and he then missed six games last season in Detroit, bringing his three-year total to 22 absences. He did come on strong late in the year for the Lions, averaging 3.3 catches for 57.7 yards on 4.7 targets over the final seven games (two TDs). It was enough to land a one-year contract with significant guarantees for a second consecutive offseason, though the 2018 second-rounder settled for $5 million from Carolina after getting twice that from Detroit a year earlier. In Carolina, the 26-year-old joins Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall and second-round pick Jonathan Mingo at wide receiver as the likely top options for QB Bryce Young, the first overall pick in this year's draft. Chark underwent offseason ankle surgery but is expected to be ready for training camp, where he could quickly emerge as the team's best downfield option under new head coach Frank Reich.
- Round 16, Pick 310 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 148 - 2022 Rank: 463
Hubbard, a 2021 fourth-round pick, partnered with D'Onta Foreman last year to lead Carolina's rushing attack after the Christian McCaffrey trade. Following a midseason ankle injury, Hubbard bounced back strong to accumulate 490 yards in the last six games while averaging 5.0 yards per rush. Although Foreman is no longer with the team, the signing of Miles Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million contract leaves Hubbard in a backup role. While there's little question Sanders will be the lead runner, his struggles in the passing game suggest Hubbard could be the top choice for clear passing situations. Neither player is as strong a receiver as probable RB3 Raheem Blackshear, but Hubbard at least showed improvement last year with 1.66 yards per route run, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs. If nothing else, the lack of experience behind the top two on the depth chart suggests Hubbard could get a lot of touches if Sanders misses games this year.
- Round 17, Pick 331 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 182 - 2022 Rank: 499
Offseason knee surgery kept Jefferson out until Week 8 last season. When he returned, he had every opportunity to capitalize in the Rams' injury-riddled offense. By the time the team was down to a third-string quarterback and a bunch of depth pieces at wide receiver, Jefferson was seeing close to five targets per game. But he didn't do much with his opportunity, finishing with 24 receptions, 369 yards and three scores. He never caught more than three passes in a game. And that was with playing 64 percent of his snaps in the slot, so he frequently would get a free release from the line. The Rams traded Allen Robinson to the Steelers this offseason, leaving Jefferson as the No. 2 wideout to Cooper Kupp. That should give him plenty of opportunities this season to be a weekly threat in the passing game.
- Round 18, Pick 350 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 252 - 2022 Rank: 464
Otton was targeted a respectable 65 times as a rookie. After posting 64 and 68 yards in Weeks 7 and 9, it was beginning to look like he'd be a fantasy factor down the stretch. Unfortunately, he fell off after those solid games, as Otton was held to fewer than 30 yards in each of his last seven contests. It also didn't help that he dropped four passes, and his 38th-percentile yards after the catch was ordinary. With Tom Brady gone, there's no telling how the offense will do. It may be tough for Otton to match the nine games in which he had five or more targets. He'll likely be a depth tight end going into 2023 drafts.
- Round 19, Pick 371 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 196 - 2022 Rank: 597
Few NFL players have as much upside intrigue as Toney, but it's also true that few NFL players are half as confusing. It's a given that Toney is a unique, maybe even one-of-a-kind threat when he has the ball, but his durability struggles and mercurial relationship with the Giants made it difficult to tell whether he has anything else to his game. To this point, Toney has never run a legitimate combination of routes, so while he certainly has the athleticism to be an all-around receiver it's not clear whether he'll ever develop the route-running acumen necessary to do so. Now 24, Toney has some but not much time to demonstrate skills growth before we have to stare down the possibility that he simply is what he already is. Even if Toney never improves a bit, though, he should still be a nightmarish after-the-catch threat as an underneath specialist for the Chiefs. The Chiefs want him to step up as their WR1, so if he makes the necessary improvements then the fantasy rewards could be enormous. Very little is truly guaranteed, though.
- Round 20, Pick 390 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 302 - 2022 Rank: 66
Over the course of the last four years spent in New England, the 38-year-old kicker, Folk, experienced what could arguably be considered the prime of his lengthy career. During this period, he was able to convert an impressive 89.3 percent of his field-goal attempts and 91.3 percent of PATs. Additionally, Folk exceeded expectations by hitting nine kicks from 50-plus yards in just two seasons, despite having never made more than three kicks from that range in a single year previously. Although his offensive teammates were not always up to par, Folk still managed to rank top-5 in total field-goals made in both years. Despite his achievements, the team did not seem too impressed and opted to use a fourth-round pick in 2023 on Maryland kicker, Chad Ryland, who possesses a stronger leg and may eventually take over Folk's role.
- Round 21, Pick 411 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 326 - 2022 Rank: 41
Brissett has played for three different teams over the last four seasons, but everywhere he goes he seemed to find himself in a starting role for a stretch. After starting 15 games for the Colts in 2019, he moved on to the Dolphins in 2021 and got five starts while Tua Tagovailoa was sidelined, seeing action in six other contests as well. Last year with the Browns, Brissett was the replacement for Deshaun Watson while the latter served out his 11-game suspension. Brissett's numbers weren't remarkable in any of those stops, and while the 30-year-old struggles to attack downfield, he's accurate enough on shorter routes and still has some mobility. Now with the Commanders, Brissett heads into training camp as the backup to second-year quarterback Sam Howell, but the veteran's track record suggests he'll be called upon at some point in 2023. If he is, Washington's solid depth at wideout should allow him to post adequate passing numbers once again.
- Round 22, Pick 430 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 725 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 23, Pick 451 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1348 - 2022 Rank: 1327
- Round 24, Pick 470 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1578 - 2022 Rank: 466
- Round 25, Pick 491 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 956 - 2022 Rank: 1674
- Round 26, Pick 510 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 958 - 2022 Rank: 1698
- Round 27, Pick 531 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 22 - 2022 Rank: 1537
- Round 28, Pick 550 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 2477 - 2022 Rank: 564
The Patriots traded up to draft Thornton in the second round last year, but Thorton didn't do much as a rookie. An injury forced him to miss the first four games of the season and when he returned he was the odd man out among the WR competition. But this season, Jakobi Meyers is in Las Vegas and Nelson Agholor is in Baltimore, creating perhaps a sizable role for Thornton. If he can build upon his on-field rapport with Mac Jones, his 4.28 speed could bring a much needed big-play element to the Patriots' passing attack. Neither newcomer JuJu Smith-Schuster nor holdover DeVante Parker can stretch the field quite like Thorton, meaning he could also see play in two-TE sets alongside Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki. Thornton should improve on last year's numbers -- 22-247-2 on 45 targets in 13 games -- given the likelihood that he'll see increased volume with the chance to make his mark as a deep threat in 2023.
- Round 29, Pick 571 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 313 - 2022 Rank: 852
An undrafted rookie last season, Mason won a roster spot in training camp and then impressed late in the year when Elijah Mitchell was out with an injury. Mason performed particularly well over a three-game stretch from Weeks 13-15, when he rushed for 171 yards on just 23 attempts, surpassing third-round pick Tyrion Davis-Price on the depth chart. For the season (43 attempts), he had a 73rd-percentile broken tackle rate along with a 100th percentile yards after contact. He enters camp as the No. 3 back to Christian McCaffrey and Mitchell, both of whom have extensive injury histories. If an injury opportunity arises this season, Mason likely will get a shot at a bigger role.
- Round 30, Pick 590 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 324 - 2022 Rank: 1142
A third-round pick last season, Davis-Price turned in a disappointing rookie year, even after Elijah Mitchell's Week 1 injury gave him increased opportunity. As the lead back in the first game after Mitchell was hurt, Davis-Price rushed 14 times for 33 yards. By mid-season, he fell to No. 4 on the depth chart, surpassed by undrafted rookie Jordan Mason on the depth chart. It's possible that he has a better training camp this year, and both Christian McCaffrey and Mitchell have extensive injury histories. If there's a perfect storm, and if Davis-Price can outplay Mason, there is a path to touches. Anything shy of that, though, likely will relegate him to the No. 4 role.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
