The Smoked Lucky Dogs had the honor of picking first in the SMALL TOWN AMERICA II draft, but unfortunately, that didn't translate into a top-notch draft grade. Despite their lofty position, they managed to secure a solid B grade, which is about as exciting as watching paint dry. With a projected record of 10-4-0, the Lucky Dogs are hoping their draft performance doesn't foreshadow their actual season. They may have snagged C.J. Stroud at a steal in the 160th spot, but their worst pick, Khalil Herbert, came at the expense of their overall draft grade. It seems like the Lucky Dogs were too busy chasing their tails to make the best decisions.
While the Smoked Lucky Dogs may have been top dogs in the draft order, their projected finish of 6th place leaves much to be desired. With a projected point total of 1953.26, they'll need more than just luck to secure a playoff spot in this 20-team league. The schedule difficulty doesn't seem to be in their favor either, as they're facing the 18th toughest lineup out of the 20 teams. To make matters worse, they'll have to deal with the absence of 5 players on bye week 13. It seems like the Lucky Dogs will need more than just a few lucky breaks to come out on top this season. Maybe they should consider changing their team name to the Unlucky Dogs instead.
Share
ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 1 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2 - 2022 Rank: 18
After posting 1,400 yards as a rookie in 2021, Jefferson's production has increased by roughly a shocking 200 yards each season. He's also seen his targets go from 125 as a rookie to 184 last year. These are staggering numbers. He played 54% of the snaps in the slot, so the coaching staff definitely knows how to get him open and into space in many different ways. Jefferson had an incredible 10 games with at least a 100 yards with four of those games going for at least 150 yards. Jefferson scored between seven and 10 touchdowns in each of his three seasons. Not only is he as talented as any other receiver in the league, but his coaching staff understands the value of getting the ball in his hands frequently. The only minor concern is that he had a few games in which he mostly disappeared. He had six games with less than 50 yards receiving. In those games, the defense worked to take him out of the contest, and the coaching staff wasn't imaginative enough to overcome it. Regardless, the AP Offensive Player of the Year is still the safest option as the top player on draft boards.
- Round 2, Pick 40 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 30 - 2022 Rank: 56
Last year, Jones was typically drafted as a top-10 running back. He ended the season with 1,516 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. That made Jones a very good early pick. So what happened this offseason? He took a $5 million pay cut. The big difference in the offense is that Aaron Rodgers is out and Jordan Love is in at quarterback. Rodgers was excellent when throwing to running backs, though we don't know how Love will be in that capacity. In early drafts, Jones is being selected outside of the top-15 running backs. His stock may be dropping because he's entering his age-28 season. In addition, fantasy managers may not be excited about the direction of the offense with Rodgers gone. Regardless, Jones has averaged over five yards per carry over his career, including a 5.3 mark last year. In addition, he's posted at least 355 receiving yards in the last four years. He had taken on the lead role over AJ Dillon last year, but once Jones was dealing with late-season injury issues, Dillon cut significantly into the workload. Jones may be the best player on the Green Bay offense, and the coaching staff may need to make him the focal point. If they do, Jones would become a great value in fantasy drafts.
- Round 3, Pick 41 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 29 - 2022 Rank: 95
Hockenson could become the No. 2 receiver for the Vikings in 2023. Adam Thielen is no longer on the team, though Minnesota used a first-round pick to select wide receiver Jordan Addison. It's possible that Addison is the second option right away. But Hockenson was a big part of the offense last year while gaining valuable chemistry with Kirk Cousins. Hockenson was heavily targeted since being acquired by the Vikings in the middle of last season. He had at least eight targets in seven of his last nine games before the meaningless week 18 contest. However, the young tight end posted fewer than 60 yards in seven of his last nine games. And his two big games for Minnesota both came against the New York Giants, one of which was in the playoffs. Overall, Hockenson should maintain an excellent scoring floor, which is rare at the tight end position. That said, he has a limited ceiling based on last year second-half performance and the addition of Addison. Hockenson's potential scoring floor will have some fantasy managers projecting Hockenson as a top-three tight end.
- Round 4, Pick 80 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 55 - 2022 Rank: 90
Evans is coming off an odd season. The numbers ended up where they needed to be, as his 1,124 receiving yards were his most since 2019. In addition, his 77 receptions and 127 targets were his most since 2018. With touchdowns being unpredictable, the fact he scored six, which was his fewest since 2017, was understandable. From a week-to-week standpoint, his performance was frustrating. He had eight games with two-to-four receptions. And over his last eight games, he surpassed 60 yards twice. And he really had just two big games all year, though one of those was in Week 17, and it may have helped win leagues, as he surpassed 200 yards with three TDs. With Tom Brady gone and Baker Mayfield in, that may not be optimal. But having shown that he hasn't slowed down entering his age-30 season, if he gets reasonable QB play, he should have a chance for a top-20 season.
- Round 5, Pick 81 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 94 - 2022 Rank: 295
Herbert was used sparingly during the first two years of his career. Despite significantly out-producing teammate David Montgomery on a yards-per-carry basis, he had just 129 rushing attempts last year. His 5.7 yards per carry was earned on a 90th percentile broken tackle rate and 94th percentile yards after contact. Despite playing in nine games in which he had 10 or fewer carries, he still ended up with more than 50 rushing yards in seven games. He was very seldom used as a receiver. However, that may have much to do with Montgomery having been a strong receiver for the team. After the team added D'Onta Foreman in free agency and Roschon Johnson in the fourth round of the draft, Herbert's role is uncertain. It would seem that at best, he'll be an early-down change of pace along with work on receiving downs. The worst-case scenario would have him seeing a handful of touches each week. A reasonable expectation is that he'll see 5-10 carries and 1-4 targets in most games.
- Round 6, Pick 120 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 212 - 2022 Rank: 100
Though McPherson's second pro season did not quite match up to his 2021 debut, he confirmed he's one of the better kickers in the league. He converted 9 out of 14 tries from 40-49 yards and all five from beyond 50 yards, also tying for sixth in PAT attempts (44) and seventh in PAT conversions (40). If anyone is to challenge Baltimore's Justin Tucker for the fantasy kicking throne, the 2021 fifth-round pick from his own division just might be the player to do so. While McPherson hasn't been as reliable as Tucker from close range, McPherson has an outstanding record from 50-plus yards (14 for 16) and is attached to a Cincinnati offense that's been considerably better than Baltimore's the past couple years.
- Round 7, Pick 121 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 140 - 2022 Rank: 456
Burks struggled to find a rhythm as a rookie despite the lack of alternatives in Tennessee's passing game. The 2022 first-round pick out of Arkansas had breathing problems in camp and was ultimately limited to 11 appearances as a rookie due to turf toe and a concussion. Despite those limitations, Burks finished third on the team with 54 targets. Both players who ranked ahead of him -- WR Robert Woods (91) and TE Austin Hooper (60) -- are no longer on the Titans, but the team did sign veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins in July. The 6-foot-2, 225-pound Burks has shown no signs of breathing problems in camp this year, and whether it's veteran Ryan Tannehill or rookie second-round pick Will Levis throwing him the ball, Burks should at least be Option B in Tennessee's passing game.
- Round 8, Pick 160 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 170 - 2022 Rank: 1491
The Texans selected Stroud second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, and the highly touted rookie out of Ohio State is expected to start right away over Davis Mills and Case Keenum. Stroud has all the physical tools to succeed out of the gate, but his processing ability was shaky in pre-draft testing, and he'll have to buck the trend of NFL underperformance for quarterbacks coming out of Ohio State. An even bigger issue for Stroud early on could be Houston's lack of playmakers. After posting an 85:12 TD: INT over the past two seasons in an Ohio State offense that included Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Stroud will helm a Houston offense without a single player that reached 600 receiving yards last season. His top weapons figure to be WRs Robert Woods and Nico Collins, along with TE Dalton Schultz, but Houston's offense will likely revolve around second-year RB Dameon Pierce. Perhaps the decently mobile Stroud can find some fantasy relevance by using his legs, but that wasn't a strong suit of his in college, as Stroud didn't post a single regular season rushing TD in his two years as the starter at Ohio State.
- Round 9, Pick 161 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 199 - 2022 Rank: 26
Murray has been able to do some incredible things on the football field since coming into the league. but between personnel issues on offense and questionable coaching, it's fair to say we haven't seen the best out of him yet. Unfortunately, after suffering an ACL tear on December 12th, he's expected to miss at least the first four games of 2023. Much of last year's problems can be placed on external factors, but there's no certainty those will be any better this season. Murray had a career low 6.1 yards per attempt last year, and his 14.7 TD:INT ratio was the first time he wasn't over 2:1 since his 2019 rookie season. Of course, Murray continued to do well as a runner. He had at least 25 rushing yards in all but one game while going over 40 four times. Because of the knee injury, it's hard to recommend Murray as any more than a QB2 this season. And that is mostly in single quarterback leagues where fantasy managers take a second quarterback. To count on him in superflex leagues is difficult until we have a firm timetable for his return to complete health.
- Round 10, Pick 200 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1265 - 2022 Rank: 108
Greenlaw has been held back by injuries for a significant portion of his career, the prime example being 2021 when he played only three games while limited by multiple groin issues. His abilities shouldn't be in question, however. In a healthy 2022 campaign, Greenlaw posted a new career-high mark in tackles (127) over 15 active games. He also showcased some big-play ability, forcing two fumbles while recording a pick-six -- the second of his four-year career. Fred Warner is the big name on San Francisco's linebacking crew, but Greenlaw proved that he can play at a near Pro-Bowl level alongside the team's defensive leader, so long as the 26-year-old stays on the field. Unfortunately, he's already on the injury report, having missed OTAs while recovering from off-season surgery on his finger.
- Round 11, Pick 201 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 130 - 2022 Rank: 335
Shaheed signed with the Saints in October last year and performed extremely well. Despite being targeted 34 times in 12 games, he posted 488 yards. His excellent speed helped him make four plays of at least 40 yards (and another two plays of at least 20 yards). At first, he was primarily a deep threat, running 40 percent of his snaps from the slot. But after the Week 14 bye, he went from averaging less than two targets per game to almost five targets in the last four games. He also was being used as a more versatile receiver down the stretch. His yards per target in each of the last three games was 10.3-13.2 Projecting Shaheed for 2023 isn't easy. He had the advantage of catching the league off guard. And then when his role changed a bit, he had another advantage. Also, with Derek Carr at QB and expected to play behind a poor pass-protecting OL, Shaheed may not be a huge downfield factor.
- Round 12, Pick 240 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 175 - 2022 Rank: 349
It's been a star-crossed NFL career for Edwards-Helaire to this point, and he heads into 2023 in a place almost unimaginable back when the Chiefs made him the first running back selected in the 2020 NFL Draft. Once selected ahead of players like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, and D'Andre Swift, Edwards-Helaire now finds himself on the Chiefs roster bubble and presumably no more than their RB3 behind Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. Bitter as fantasy investors might be after three disappointing years with Edwards-Helaire, he hasn't failed so much as he's been a victim of circumstances. Injuries are a recurring issue, and it was when Edwards-Helaire sat out over the last three years that players like Pacheco and McKinnon got their feet in the door. When Edwards-Helaire has been healthy enough to play, though, he's been reasonably productive. Edwards-Helaire's career total of 371 carries has yielded 1,622 yards (4.4 YPC) and 11 touchdowns, which is too good for him to be a total waste of space. With that said a change of scenery might be best for Edwards-Helaire's career and fantasy interests.
- Round 13, Pick 241 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 178 - 2022 Rank: 251
Knox managed a similar receiving line from 2021 to 2022, hovering within the 500-yard range each season, with the exception of his touchdown total dropping from nine to six. He earned his first Pro Bowl with scores in each of Buffalo's last four games, plus the team's playoff opener. Knox has momentum and clear chemistry with Allen on his side, making him a lock to retain a key role on offense for the Bills, but the selection of first-round rookie TE Dalton Kincaid clouds things. Though Knox is under contract for three more seasons, Kincaid represents Buffalo's future at the position, and he could begin competing for snaps as early as Year 1. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis remain the top options in this passing game, making Knox the No. 3 look for Allen at best, with the danger of Kincaid earning work out of the slot. In all likelihood, the best path for Knox to maintain valuable production will be in the end zone.
- Round 14, Pick 280 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1169 - 2022 Rank: 189
Williams is outshined by his brother Quinnen, but that doesn't mean he hasn't been productive in his own right. He's coming off consecutive 100-tackle seasons with the Jets, and he's become a staple at outside linebacker for the team. The Jets showed their dedication to Williams by re-signing him to a three-year, $18 million contract this offseason. That should safely lock in his starting role for at least the 2023 campaign. There are some drawbacks to his game, as he can sometimes get lost in coverage and also takes bad angles while supporting the run defense at times. On the other hand, he's also one of the biggest hitters in the NFL and will continue to rack up plenty of tackles.
- Round 15, Pick 281 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1423 - 2022 Rank: 112
- Round 16, Pick 320 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1212 - 2022 Rank: 173
- Round 17, Pick 321 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1553 - 2022 Rank: 167
- Round 18, Pick 360 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 270 - 2022 Rank: 311
Although he's going into his age-25 season, things are not looking up for Fant. Despite seemingly having more opportunity last year in Seattle than he did in Denver, he posted career lows in yardage, targets and yards per reception. Although he's a great athlete, Fant was in the 40th percentile in yardage after the catch. To make matters worse, Seattle moved Colby Parkinson ahead of Fant as a receiver in the second half of the season. It seems unlikely that things will turn around for Fant anytime soon, and he may not be worth a draft pick in many fantasy leagues.
- Round 19, Pick 361 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2579 - 2022 Rank: 1141
Lance earned the starting job last year only to see his season end in Week 2 thanks to a broken right ankle. What's more, Brock Purdy thrived when thrust into the starting job late in the season, putting Lance's career with the 49ers on life support. The plug was pulled in late August when the 49ers traded Lance to the Cowboys for a fourth-round pick after Purdy proved healthy following offseason elbow surgery. Lance still has plenty of upside. At 6-foot-4, 224, he has a strong arm with the legs to be an excellent dual threat. But his accuracy and anticipation remain a concern. In Dallas, Lance will compete with Cooper Rush to back up Dak Prescott.
- Round 20, Pick 400 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 353 - 2022 Rank: 78
McLaughlin has been on six NFL teams during his four-year career. Before playing for the Colts last year, he had only attempted 49 field goals in three seasons. In 2022, he connected on 30 field goals while converting 83.3 percent of his attempts. If McLaughlin maintains that level of accuracy in training camp, he could win the starting job, though his battle with Rodrigo Blankenship will be tough. Regardless, the Bucs offense is likely going to be low-volume, so there may not be enough opportunities to make McLaughlin a top-15 fantasy option.
- Round 21, Pick 401 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 506 - 2022 Rank: 368
- Round 22, Pick 440 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1245 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 23, Pick 441 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 563 - 2022 Rank: 296
- Round 24, Pick 480 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 517 - 2022 Rank: 249
- Round 25, Pick 481 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2556 - 2022 Rank: 256
Duvernay was poised to surpass his prior career highs for receiving in 2022, only to be sidelined for the remainder of the season after breaking his foot in December. His prospects for involvement in the Baltimore offense have not improved in recent months. While the Ravens hired OC Todd Monken to lead an offense with a greater emphasis on passing, the team also prioritized its WR room this offseason. Notably, the Ravens added Odell Beckham in free agency, drafted Zay Flowers in the first round, and brought on Nelson Agholor for depth. Additionally, 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman is expected to start if he returns healthy from his own 2022 foot injury. Duvernay remains the favorite to handle kick and punt returns, but that may be the full extent of his role some weeks.
- Round 26, Pick 520 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 537 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 27, Pick 521 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1235 - 2022 Rank: 540
- Round 28, Pick 560 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 340 - 2022 Rank: -
Robinson has been in the league for seven years, most of those with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. However, he has yet to record 50 receptions or 470 yards in a season. But now that he's with the Rams, he'll compete with Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek and Tutu Atwell for either the No. 2 or No. 3 receiver role. There's a reasonable chance that Robinson plays significant snaps in three-receiver sets. He could become a depth player in deeper fantasy leagues.
- Round 29, Pick 561 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 203 - 2022 Rank: 620
When the Rams had few options to turn to at wide receiver last season, Atwell got some run. He played 81 percent of the snaps in the slot and turned his 8.5 yards per target into 16.6 yards per reception due to a 50th-percentile yards-after-catch rate. Atwell will compete with Ben Skowronek, Demarcus Robinson and fifth-round pick Puka Nacua for a rotational role, but durability always is a concern for the 5-foot-9, 165-pound wideout.
- Round 30, Pick 600 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1097 - 2022 Rank: 1799
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
