In the SMALL TOWN AMERICA II fantasy draft, the Soulard Saints proved that being 19th in the draft order is no obstacle to success. With a whopping 30 rounds to work their magic, this team managed to secure an impressive A+ draft grade. Their projected record of 13-1-0 has the competition shaking in their boots, as the Saints are poised to dominate the league. With a projected points total of 2051.88, they're clearly not here to play around. And while they may have the 15th toughest schedule out of 20 teams, it's safe to say that their opponents should be the ones worried.
The Soulard Saints showed their draft prowess by making the best pick of the draft, snagging Nico Collins at 179, well below his ADP of 131. Talk about a steal! However, not every pick was a home run, as they made their worst pick at 62, drafting Geno Smith who had an ADP of 117. But hey, nobody's perfect, right? One thing that stood out about this draft was the Saints' affinity for a particular team, as they drafted four players from the same squad. It's clear they have faith in the chemistry and teamwork of Harrison Butker, Isiah Pacheco, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Justyn Ross. With such a cohesive group, the Saints are ready to take the league by storm. Watch out, SMALL TOWN AMERICA II, the Saints are marching in!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 19 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 4 - 2022 Rank: 44
Pollard finally emerged from Ezekiel Elliott's shadow in 2022. The Memphis product turned a career-high workload into career-best volume numbers without losing any efficiency, as Pollard topped 5.0 yards per carry for the third time in four NFL seasons while delivering his best yards per catch average to date at 9.5. The Cowboys were also more willing to use Pollard in the red zone, resulting in 12 total touchdowns after he had only 10 in his first three years combined. The breakout performance, along with salary cap concerns, finally convinced Dallas to move on from a declining Elliott, but that doesn't necessarily mean Pollard's role has room to grow further as his thin frame may not be able to handle much more than last season's 233 touches. Then again, Zeke's 231 carries will have to go somewhere. The team did add Ronald Jones in the offseason, and Malik Davis looked capable enough as a rookie last year, but Pollard will head into 2023 as the clear top option in the backfield after getting the franchise tag from the club to keep him from reaching free agency.
- Round 2, Pick 22 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 7 - 2022 Rank: 21
It doesn't diminish his legacy with Aaron Rodgers any in hindsight, but it's quite a testament to Adams' abilities that he moved from Green Bay to the Raiders and had almost no drop off in his production. Although it took an extra game in 2022 than 2021, Adams eclipsed 100 catches and 1,500 yards for the second year in a row last year. Adams even improved on the touchdown production from Green Bay to Las Vegas, scoring 14 times on his 100 catches last year compared to 11 times on 123 catches his final year with the Packers. Adams expressed dissatisfaction with the Raiders organization and its direction following the 2022 season, but that realization probably hit him at some point before then, yet it didn't stop Adams from producing at an elite level. What could perhaps harm Adams' production is the Raiders quarterback situation. Free agent pickup Jimmy Garoppolo should be good enough for Adams to thrive, but Garoppolo's surgically-repaired foot is such a concern that the Raiders wrote an out clause in Garoppolo's contract that allows them to cut him with no cap penalty. Brian Hoyer would be the likely backup if Garoppolo were to miss time, and it's difficult to feel totally secure with Adams if that's the type of quarterbacking he might have to deal with.
- Round 3, Pick 59 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 54 - 2022 Rank: 477
Injuries put a damper on Waller's numbers over the last two seasons, but in the two years prior to that he established himself as one of the NFL's most dangerous tight ends. Only Travis Kelce had more receiving yards at the position in 2019 and 2020. Injuries weren't the only things that seemed to limit Waller's production in 2022 though. He took a back seat to Davante Adams in the Raiders' offense, and Waller had trouble finding a fit in Josh McDaniels' scheme. An offseason trade to the Giants gives Waller a fresh start. While he's arguably the most talented pass-catcher quarterback Daniel Jones has ever had to work with, Brian Daboll's scheme has even less of a track record of TE production than McDaniels' offense. Waller will turn 31 in September, and while he could return to elite status this season as Jones' top option, he'll also carry a lot of risk even if he manages to stay healthy.
- Round 4, Pick 62 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 116 - 2022 Rank: 5
After throwing 34 touchdowns in 45 career games, Smith threw 30 touchdown passes last year. Before throwing for 4,282 yards last year, his best prior season was his 2013 rookie season when he threw for 3,046. He was an incredible success story after being written off as a fantasy option, and he didn't even win the Seahawks starting job until the last game of the preseason. For most of last season, Smith was very consistent. He threw multiple touchdowns in 10 of 11 games between Weeks 3 and 14. However, Smith ended the season slowly. He threw exactly one touchdown pass in three of his last four games while also throwing for 215 or fewer yards in each of his last three games. There's always concern about paying up for a career year in fantasy football, and with Smith's career year coming at age 31, it raises a lot of red flags. However, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's offense requires a strong processor at quarterback, and Smith has always been that. In addition, he has excellent wide receiver weapons along with a good running game. Seattle also addressed their offensive line last season, so that it was no longer a liability. Overall, Smith is definitely in position to succeed with another strong season. It's also possible the stars aligned perfectly and his great prior season may see him regress back to career form. Since he is typically being selected outside the top quarterback options in fantasy drafts, there isn't a lot of risk in selecting him.
- Round 5, Pick 99 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1210 - 2022 Rank: 42
Smith was dealt by the Bears just before the trade deadline last season after it became clear the sides wouldn't agree to terms on a long-term extension. He didn't take much time to acclimate to his new surroundings in Baltimore, as he managed 94 tackles, two sacks, three passes defended, and an interception across 10 games. Smith was rewarded with a five-year, $100 million contract extension in January, and will now be the long-term centerpiece of the Ravens' defense. After an offseason to learn the defense, Smith will officially become the leader of the unit and wear the green dot. While others around the league will have more gaudy sack totals, Smith has topped 160 tackles in consecutive seasons. We should expect more of the same in 2023, which makes him among the safest IDP selections available.
- Round 6, Pick 102 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 66 - 2022 Rank: 163
London had a great start and a great finish to his rookie season, but the nine games that fell between those periods of production were uninspiring. In the first three games of the season, the eighth overall pick averaged 5.3 receptions for 71 yards and scored two touchdowns. Over the last five games of the year, he fell below 70 yards just once. In between those two stretches, he had 40 or fewer yards in nine consecutive games. Some of his downswing may have been due to Marcus Mariota being the QB, especially after defenses had an idea how the Falcons wanted to 'run' their offense. However, the fact that London played his best football with Desmond Ridder under center bodes well for his future. Utilized both outside and in the slot, London was able to win matchups even when defenses focused on him after TE Kyle Pitts suffered a season-ending injury. London's overall numbers didn't look great, but he had enough big games to show that he has the makings of a star. While the Falcons figure to sport a run-first offense again, it's a safe bet London and Pitts dominate whatever volume the passing game provides.
- Round 7, Pick 139 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 181 - 2022 Rank: 192
The 2022 season was a frustrating one for Butker, a kicker not used to struggling. An ankle injury in Week 1 seemed to stick with Butker for most of the year, and he ended up converting just 18 of his 24 field goal attempts in 13 games. If Butker had stayed healthy he would have likely posted a much better conversion rate. In each of the five prior seasons Butker finished with a field goal percentage of 88.9 or better, even while kicking often and regularly from long range. Now healthy again, Butker should resume his pre-2022 functions as a high-volume, high-efficiency kicker in one of the league's best offenses. Before 2022 Butker averaged 29 field goals and 47 PATs made per season.
- Round 8, Pick 142 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1167 - 2022 Rank: 224
Campbell has been the model of consistency across his seven-year career in the NFL, topping 90 tackles in each of his last six. In part, his production has been dictated by model health, as he played 16 games in each season from 2017-2021. That run ended in 2022, when a knee injury cost Campbell four contests. However, his production was otherwise right on target, and he was on pace for 137 tackles if he'd played the same number of snaps as the year before. One unique area that Campbell has produced is in coverage, as he has two picks in three of the last four campaigns. Overall, he's been an excellent fit for coordinator Joe Barry's 3-4 scheme since the duo arrived in Green Bay in 2021, and Campbell has been free to focus on chasing after ball carriers.
- Round 9, Pick 179 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 110 - 2022 Rank: 447
Collins finished third on the Texans with 66 targets last season, and he's remarkably the only player among the team's top six in that category returning in 2023 for a remade Houston passing attack that also will be helmed by a new QB -- rookie second overall pick C.J. Stroud. Brandin Cooks (93 targets in 2022) and Chris Moore (74) both left for greener pastures, but the Texans brought in a bevy of WRs to replace those outgoing options. Houston signed Robert Woods and Noah Bown in free agency, drafted Nathaniel Dell (third round) and Xavier Hutchinson (sixth round), and should get 2022 second-round pick John Metchie back after he missed his entire rookie season. The Texans also have a new offensive coordinator in Bobby Slowik, so Collins won't have much of an incumbent advantage, but the 2021 third-round pick should be ticketed for a prominent role if he can stay healthy after missing 10 games due to injuries over his first two seasons. In the 24 games he played, Collins caught 70 of 126 targets for 927 yards and three touchdowns, but his efficiency could improve significantly if Stroud proves to be an upgrade over Davis Mills, who remains on the roster after starting at QB in each of Collins' first two seasons. Collins' 6-foot-4 frame could theoretically make him an enticing target in the red zone, though such success hasn't materialized in what's been a lackluster Houston offense in recent years.
- Round 10, Pick 182 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 126 - 2022 Rank: 1522
The Titans picked Spears in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft after an outstanding college career at Tulane that included 2,910 yards and 31 touchdowns on 427 carries (6.8 YPC) spread in 33 games. Elite production in the American Athletic Conference is far from a guarantee of success against NFL-level competition, especially since Spears' athletic profile is nothing special; he has 4.54 speed in a 5-foot-11, 201-pound frame. He may not be able to handle heavy workloads consistently at that size, but Spears probably won't get a chance to find that out for a few years, as workhorse Derrick Henry is firmly entrenched atop Tennessee's RB depth chart. Spears is the favorite to snag the primary backup role and begin his career operating in a change-of-pace capacity behind Henry. His main competition for the No. 2 spot is 2022 fourth-round pick Hassan Haskins, who had just 93 rushing yards as a rookie and was recently arrested following a domestic dispute.
- Round 11, Pick 219 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1118 - 2022 Rank: 204
Jones took a significant step forward in his sophomore season as measured by both skill and role. He increased his snap count from 452 to 693, and he should take another step forward in that area after the offseason departure of Bobby Wagner. Jones also proved he knew what to do with that playing time, notching 114 tackles (66 solo), two passes defended, an interception, and a forced fumble. Heading into 2023, Jones will be asked to lead a young and unproven linebacker corps in Los Angeles. While that will prove to be significant pressure on a third-year player, it also gives him the chance to take another step forward and perhaps replicate Wagner's stat line from last season.
- Round 12, Pick 222 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1314 - 2022 Rank: 187
Washington took Davis 19th overall in the 2021 Draft, capital driven primarily by his size and athleticism after he ran a 4.47 40-yard dash while posting a 132-inch broad jump and 42-inch vertical at the Kentucky Pro Day. However, he entered the NFL with relatively little experience, which limited him to a 59 percent snap share as a rookie. That mark jumped to 85 percent last season, and he should take another step forward in 2023 after the departure of Cole Holcomb. We got a preview of what could be in store for Davis, as he averaged 7.9 tackles after Holcomb's season-ending injury in Week 7. Davis is working his way back from a relatively minor knee procedure, which will be something to monitor during training camp. Assuming he begins the season at full strength as expected, he can be projected to post new career-high marks in both tackles and sacks.
- Round 13, Pick 259 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 128 - 2022 Rank: 1501
A 2023 second-round draft pick, Reed has a chance to earn a significant role in the Packers' offense this season. The Packers are young and inexperienced at wide receiver with second-year wideouts Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs his main competition for targets. Reed showed versatility in college and should have little trouble earning a spot in the top-three WRs, even if he doesn't over take Watson or Doubs. But the Packers are likely to remain a run-heavy offense, which could limit the WR targers. New quarterback Jordan Love is also a factor. Reed's development could hinge on Love's development.
- Round 14, Pick 262 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 73 - 2022 Rank: 199
Pacheco's rookie season was a smashing success, and one the former Rutgers standout could potentially build on in his second NFL season. Pacheco's hard-charging, high-speed approach as a runner between the tackles makes him difficult for defenses to handle as they more so concern themselves with Patrick Mahomes, so there's not much reason to fear regression from Pacheco's average of 4.9 yards per carry from 2022. Pacheco has the speed to score from long range, yet in 2022 he had only three carries over 20 yards and none over 40 - both of those numbers would be good bets to rise in 2023. There's also room for growth in Pacheco's pass-catching production. The Chiefs increased his route-running workload as the season progressed, and Pacheco was occasionally effective as a receiver in his Rutgers days. Jerick McKinnon is still around to poach passing-down snaps if Pacheco slips up, and former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire can't be written off entirely either, but Pacheco has the clear lead in this backfield and plenty of momentum behind him.
- Round 15, Pick 299 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1179 - 2022 Rank: -
Barton was forced to bide his time in Seattle for most of his rookie contract, blocked from playing time by franchise legend Bobby Wagner. All told he started only five games in his first three years with the Seahawks. However, with the departure of Wagner, Barton finally had the chance to break out in 2022 and he took advantage to post 136 tackles in 17 games and 11 starts. He also chipped in two sacks and a pair of interceptions. In March, Barton settled for a one-year, $3.5 million contract in Washington, where he'll join Jamin Davis as the key to the middle of the Washington defense. Barton should get a lot of snaps and will have the opportunity to prove his 2022 production was no fluke.
- Round 16, Pick 302 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 166 - 2022 Rank: 38
Jones looked set to take a step forward after a promising rookie season, but in Year 2 he instead regressed across the board statistically, even being briefly benched for Bailey Zappe. Part of the blame can be placed on the functionality of last year's offensive coaching staff and the high-ankle sprain that forced Jones to the sideline for three contests, but finishing with only 14 TD passes in 14 games can't be overlooked. Now joined by pass-catchers Juju-Smith Schuster and Mike Gesicki, who will hope to make up for the departure of Jakobi Meyers, Jones will need to make the most of the 2023 campaign if he's going to entrench himself as New England's starter of the future. Swapping out the combination of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge for new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien is perhaps the biggest upgrade of the offseason, though Zappe could loom as a threat should Jones falter early. If Jones is to succeed, it may have to be with efficiency rather than volume due to his pass-catching corps, and the presence of Rhamondre Stevenson should O'Brien choose to lean on the run game to complement coach Bill Belichick's defense. While that may not set Jones up to light the fantasy world aflame, regular-season wins might not be as hard to come by for the Patriots as in 2022.
- Round 17, Pick 339 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 500 - 2022 Rank: 172
- Round 18, Pick 342 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 192 - 2022 Rank: 348
Valdes-Scantling is a textbook example of a player who's more useful on the real football field than in fantasy football. He has speed that forces the safety to stay over the top, a useful decoy function that helps buy cover for Travis Kelce underneath, and if the safety doesn't defend MVS over the top then Patrick Mahomes is prepared to strike against the single coverage. If the defense tries to counter MVS' speed with a similarly speedy corner, then that corner is usually much smaller and thus someone MVS can bully as a blocker in the ground game. The problem is neither of these scenarios result in fantasy points for MVS, even though he's playing a very real role in making the Chiefs offense succeed. Dropped passes have always been an issue and will likely continue to cap MVS' per-snap target upside. The result is that MVS can't credibly draw targets in the underneath or intermediate, leaving him mostly dependent on hit-or-miss production on sporadic downfield targets.
- Round 19, Pick 379 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 498 - 2022 Rank: 231
- Round 20, Pick 382 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 305 - 2022 Rank: 523
Edmonds started last year with the Dolphins and was paid to be the lead back, but he didn't seem to fit with the system and fell into a minor role. Then after being shipped to Denver at the trade deadline, he suffered a high-ankle sprain. However, with his 26 carries for the Broncos, he looked more like the version of himself when he was with the Cardinals the previous four years. Now with the Buccaneers, he only has to beat out Rachaad White for a role in the offense. As an afterthought in drafts, spending a late pick makes sense due to potential role and upside.
- Round 21, Pick 419 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 229 - 2022 Rank: 446
Although backup tight ends typically go unnoticed for fantasy football, Likely quickly became an exception last preseason as a rookie, catching 12 passes for 144 yards within the first two weeks of the exhibition calendar. While obviously stuck behind standout teammate Mark Andrews, the fourth-round pick shined whenever he had the opportunity to play extra minutes. In the three games that Andrews was absent/limited -- he played only 10 snaps Week 8 and sat out entirely Weeks 9 and 18 -- Likely caught 15 out of 25 targets for 204 yards and two touchdowns. As for the other 13 games, Likely gathered 21 catches, 169 yards, and one touchdown out of 35 targets. Offseason upgrades to the WR group may limit Likely's snaps/targets alongside Andrews again, but the second-year pro is one of the few backup TEs in the league capable of becoming a solid fantasy starter if the guy ahead of him misses time.
- Round 22, Pick 422 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 259 - 2022 Rank: 1435
- Round 23, Pick 459 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2362 - 2022 Rank: 1575
A seventh-round pick in this year's draft, McBride has a path to touches after the Vikings released Dalvin Cook in June. Alexander Mattison is the starter, though he hasn't surpassed 3.7 yards per carry in either of the last two seasons. And last year's fifth-round pick, Ty Chandler, handled just six carries as the third-string back. McBride forced many missed tackles at UAB and runs in a physical manner could lead to him being an interior runner. However, he did not consistently pull away from defenders in the open field and was often passive when hitting the hole. He also wasn't much of a factor as a receiver. It would appear that he's more likely to battle with Kene Nwangwu for the No. 3 role than with Chandler for the No. 2 role, but McBride will get his chance in training camp.
- Round 24, Pick 462 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 2368 - 2022 Rank: 1538
A fifth-round pick this spring, Hull has the opportunity to carve out a significant role as a pass catcher out of the backfield as a rookie. The Colts traded receiving back Nyheim Hines last season, and Hull caught 55 passes as a senior at Northwestern in 2022. He also rushed for 913 yards in his senior year, though he averaged just 4.1 YPC after mustering 1,009 rushing yards at a 5.1 YPC clip in 2021. Hull is unlikely to cut into Jonathan Taylor's workhorse role on early downs, but backup Zack Moss hasn't done much as a pass catcher in the NFL, so Hull could quickly earn playing time if he can beat out Deon Jackson in passing situations.
- Round 25, Pick 499 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 390 - 2022 Rank: 159
The Bears selected Brisker in the second round of the 2022 Draft, and he immediately proved to be an impact player. Though he plays in the secondary, he made plays all over the field by proving adept at rushing the passer as illustrated by his four sacks. He was steady as a tackler and willing to help stop the run game, racking up 104 stops in 15 games. Of course, he also had responsibilities in coverage and chipped in two passes defended and a pick. Working alongside veteran safety Eddie Jackson should allow Brisker to continue to improve and potentially begin to approach top-flight status as an IDP. That's particularly true because his production isn't reliant solely upon racking up tackles.
- Round 26, Pick 502 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 568 - 2022 Rank: 270
- Round 27, Pick 539 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 529 - 2022 Rank: 310
- Round 28, Pick 542 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 290 - 2022 Rank: 1555
A 2023 sixth-round pick, Palmer has 4.33 speed at 6-foot, 192. He showed a good catch radius in college, though he didn't always run crisp routes or show consistent footwork. He also struggled with drops. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin dominating snaps and Russell Gage penciled into the No. 3 WR job, Palmer might compete for a low-volume rotational role as a deep threat this season. He may also be an asset on special teams.
- Round 29, Pick 579 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1902 - 2022 Rank: 1528
- Round 30, Pick 582 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1946 - 2022 Rank: 900
The since-fired Nathaniel Hackett dropped Okwuegbunam on the depth chart in training camp last year, anointing Greg Dulcich as the only Broncos tight end eligible for receiving work. Okwuegbunam was then criticized by his head coach for "failing" to block as well as blocking specialists like Eric Tomlinson and Eric Saubert, but 258-pound tight ends with 4.49 speed shouldn't be blockers anyway. They should be running routes downfield, where their size and speed makes them a compelling big-play threat down the seam. If Okwuegbunam is given a chance to show off his wheels this season under new coach Sean Payton then he could become a factor again for Denver. He has a lot of ground to make up in Denver's crowded offense, which features incumbent starting tight end Greg Dulcich as well as trade acquisition Adam Trautman. If given the chance to compete with Dulcich, Okwuegbunam could still resurface.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
