In the SMALL TOWN AMERICA II fantasy draft, Dead RB Walking Returns II found themselves in the 14th spot of the draft order. With 30 rounds to navigate, they managed to secure a solid B draft grade. However, their projected finish of 7th out of 20 teams leaves something to be desired. Despite their best efforts, Dead RB Walking Returns II will have to overcome the second toughest schedule in the league. To make matters worse, they will have to navigate through a bye week 5 with 4 players on the sidelines.
While Dead RB Walking Returns II did have a shining moment with their best pick of Jameson Williams at 174, surpassing his ADP of 127, they also stumbled with their worst pick of Tua Tagovailoa at 14, far below his ADP of 92. Additionally, they took a risky strategy by drafting 5 players from the same team, including Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, Aidan Hutchinson, Riley Patterson, and Teddy Bridgewater. It remains to be seen if this team synergy will pay off or lead to a lackluster performance. With a team name like Dead RB Walking Returns II, it seems fitting that their draft performance may leave them walking on thin ice this season.
Share
ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 14 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 85 - 2022 Rank: 15
Tagovailoa finally looked like an elite playmaker on the NFL stage for stretches last season, proving that he's an obvious fit for coach Mike McDaniel's scheme, before concussions derailed his what appeared to be a decisive breakout. He nonetheless finished the season with a QB rating of 105.5, third best in the league, and a first-place 8.9 yards per pass attempt. A top-three wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle cements Tagovailoa's situation as elite, especially after an offseason of minor additions to the offensive line. The only significant question still looming over the fourth-year QB is one of durability, as even before last season's concussion issues he'd never played more than 13 games in a single year. As long as Tagovailoa can stay upright, though, he should produce at one of the league's highest rates, and over the offseason he was cleared of additional risk for suffering future concussions. It seems unfair to demand another 'prove-it' season from Tua after his accomplishments in 2022, but even after the Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option, he still needs to demonstrate he can put it all together for a full campaign.
- Round 2, Pick 27 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 37 - 2022 Rank: 82
In the current iteration of the Seahawks offense, Metcalf isn't quite the explosive downfield threat that he was earlier in his career. Last year, he saw a career low 11.6 yards per reception while posting just a 10th-percentile yardage after the catch rate. After being targeted 129 times in each of the two prior seasons, Metcalf was targeted 141 times last year leading to a career high 90 catches. To this point, 2020 is looking like his career year, when he had 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. As long as the team continues to roll with Geno Smith as quarterback, it's unlikely that this becomes a team that consistently attacks downfield, which will limit Metcalf's upside. but his target volume should continue to help him be a strong weekly fantasy option. Based on volume and talent, he should remain in the top-15 conversation at wide receiver.
- Round 3, Pick 54 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 67 - 2022 Rank: 791
Williams is racing to return to the field after his 2022 season cruelly ended with an ACL/LCL tear in Week 4, an injury that presumably led the Broncos to pursue Samaje Perine in free agency. Perine's contract is a modest one (two years, $7.5 million), so it's likely safe to assume that Broncos consider Perine a stopgap option until Williams is back to full strength. Once he's healthy Williams will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of the arrival of coach Sean Payton, who should prove to be a night-and-day improvement over the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. Through 21 career games, Williams has run for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns while adding 59 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns on 75 targets (78.7 percent catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). While those numbers don't jump off the page, they're pretty good, especially considering how bad the Denver offense was those two years. Perine should shift into a proper backup role once Williams' knee is ready to go, but it's tough to guess his specific timeline after Williams was a limited participant in May OTAs.
- Round 4, Pick 67 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2160 - 2022 Rank: 182
Back injuries are always concerning, and maybe even more so for Williams given the neck injury he suffered in his Clemson days, but the minor back fracture suffered by Williams in Week 18 appears to be a non-issue. More specifically, Williams said in June that the back had been fully recovered since the spring. So long as he's healthy, then Williams should plug back in to a high-volume role in one of the league's most enviable passing games. Williams' target rate rose significantly over the last two years, a span in which he averaged about 120 targets per 850 snaps after averaging only about 85 targets per 850 snaps in his first four seasons. If he can maintain that elevated target rate for a third year and stay healthy all season then 2023 could shape up to be a career year for Williams. There's a possible concern with the introduction of first-round pick Quentin Johnston, but Johnston is more of a downfield specialist than someone who can run the same intermediate routes as Williams. Rather than Williams' usage, Johnston should instead raid the comparatively inefficient targets that went to Joshua Palmer (107) and Gerald Everett (87).
- Round 5, Pick 94 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 27 - 2022 Rank: 358
A third-round pick in 2022 out of Alabama, Robinson's rookie campaign started out in shocking fashion when he was shot during an attempted robbery. He made his debut in Week 5 and was quickly pushed into a prominent early-down role by former offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who seemed to blame Antonio Gibson for his own failures. While Robinson delivered decent volume numbers, his inability to shed tacklers and gain yards after contact kept him from separating himself from his competition and establishing himself as the Commanders' lead back of the future. Turner has since been replaced by former Kansas City coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and it's not clear whether Robinson, Gibson, or even 2023 sixth-round pick Chris Rodriguez will emerge as the top option in Washington's backfield. If Robinson isn't in a workhorse role though, it's tough to see him making much of an impact due to his lack of passing-down work and ineffectiveness in short-yardage situations.
- Round 6, Pick 107 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 60 - 2022 Rank: 1502
Laporta has solid athleticism, but he seems like a typical rookie tight end who needs time to develop. However, being drafted in the second round on a team that has no credible receiving threat at his position puts Laporta in the equation as an immediate fantasy option. He's more of a seam-stretcher than a possession receiver, so even if he gets targets, he may be hit-or-miss from week-to-week. It seems likely he'll finish outside the top-20 at his position, though there is some upside if he develops quickly. Four tight ends combined to catch 12 touchdowns in Detroit's offense in 2022, proving this is a favorable scheme for the position in the red zone. Furthermore, projected No. 2 receiver Jameson Williams will serve a suspension for the season's first six games, potentially opening up more targets in the passing game.
- Round 7, Pick 134 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1131 - 2022 Rank: 128
Not all careers progress linearly, but Wilson's certainly has. A third-round pick in 2020, Wilson served primarily on special teams as a rookie. He took a step forward in 2021, only to truly break out in 2022 by tallying 123 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Though he's not overly athletic, Wilson has shown enough intelligence to be an asset in coverage as he has racked up 11 passes defended and seven interceptions across 40 career games. He's a true three-down linebacker. Heading into the final year of his rookie contract, Wilson will certainly be a key member of the Bengals defense yet again. The only question is his health, as he's missed eight games in his three-year career.
- Round 8, Pick 147 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 492 - 2022 Rank: 197
- Round 9, Pick 174 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 154 - 2022 Rank: 1008
Williams will miss the first six games of the year due to suspension. As a rookie last year, he was eased into the lineup after suffering an ACL injury during his last year in college. He was targeted nine times, but he showed game-breaking speed -- his only catch was a 41-yard touchdown. Even when he was running routes on which he wasn't targeted, he usually looked like the fastest player on the field. And although it didn't show up on the stat sheet, he had a 66-yard touchdown called back by penalty. In fantasy drafts, he should be treated with the uncertainty of a supremely talented rookie with a ceiling of 11 games played. But the traits that led him to be a first-round pick are apparent.
- Round 10, Pick 187 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 554 - 2022 Rank: 147
Grant had a modest rookie season, playing nearly as much on special teams as he did on the Falcons' defensive unit. However, he took a major step forward after winning a starting job in 2022 and became a near-every-down player. That allowed him to total 123 tackles, seven pass defenses, two interceptions, one forced fumble, and one fumble recovery across 17 games. Despite that production, the Falcons added Jessie Bates to their secondary this offseason, creating competition for Grant. Specifically, he will have to compete with Jaylinn Hawkins for the starting strong safety job. The end result could be a rotation at the position, so Grant comes with significant risk to take a step back from his 2022 production.
- Round 11, Pick 214 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1110 - 2022 Rank: 178
- Round 12, Pick 227 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1159 - 2022 Rank: 383
Owusu-Koramoah made an instant impact among the Browns linebacker corps as a rookie in 2021, playing 584 snaps. He was still in a rotational role in year two but was set to take a step forward before a foot injury sidelined him for the final four games of the campaign. He was on the field for OTAs, so he should be back and fully healthy for the upcoming campaign. There's no doubt that Owusu-Koramoah has a diverse skill set, and he's been asked by the Browns to fill a weakside linebacker role. That leaves him a lot of responsibility in coverage, which he's responded to by tallying a combined eight passes defended through two seasons. He similarly chips in against the run, racking up a combined 146 tackles as a pro. The only thing Owusu-Koramoah hasn't shown is consistent ability as a pass rusher, though perhaps that will come if he finds his way onto the field more in 2023.
- Round 13, Pick 254 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 702 - 2022 Rank: 131
- Round 14, Pick 267 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 217 - 2022 Rank: 165
After playing only five games in his first season with Washington in 2021, Samuel stayed healthy last year and posted solid numbers as the No. 3 wideout behind Terry McLaurin and first-round rookie Jahan Dotson. Samuel saw significant usage on the ground to supplement his 64 catches, the second-highest total of his career, but his ceiling would appear to be firmly capped given his role in a middle-of-the-pack offense. There are reasons to think the unit as a whole could take a big step forward in 2023, however. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell takes the reins under new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who brings a Super Bowl-winning scheme with him from Kansas City. Barring an injury to McLaurin or Dotson though, it's hard to see a path by which Samuel would get featured prominently.
- Round 15, Pick 294 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 243 - 2022 Rank: 367
Gesicki is a uniquely athletic pass-catcher for a tight end, but for the first time in his NFL career, he'll have to contend with another competent No. 1 option at the same position. Hunter Henry is more than capable of moving the chains, and he's a much more proficient blocker than Gesicki. Henry has even historically been more effective in the end zone, but Gesicki's explosiveness could give him an edge on obvious passing downs. Offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien may well implement multi-TE formations as a fixture of New England's identity, but it doesn't seem likely that Mac Jones will air it out enough to guarantee Gesicki consistent weekly volume. That could mean he repeats as a low-floor, high-upside option, reminiscent of his time in Miami.
- Round 16, Pick 307 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 213 - 2022 Rank: 352
After leading the Titans in targets (91), catches (53) and receiving yards (527) last season, Woods is set to play a prominent role in a different AFC South receiving corps. He's the most established option in a Texans wide receiver room that also includes Nico Collins, John Metchie (hamstring), Noah Brown, Nathaniel Dell and Xavier Hutchinson. Three of those WRs have yet to play a down in the NFL, and the other two have topped 500 yards in a season once between them. As a two-time 1,000-yard receiver, the 31-year-old Woods will be an experienced option for rookie second overall pick C.J. Stroud to lean on, and Woods likely will be penciled into a starting role after signing a two-year, $15.25 million contract. The veteran WR has topped 500 yards in all 10 of his previous NFL campaigns, and it's possible Woods will get back some of the burst he lacked last season after tearing his ACL in Nov. 2021. The Texans have won four or fewer games in each of the past three seasons, so they could find themselves in frequent pass-heavy game scripts playing from behind.
- Round 17, Pick 334 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 253 - 2022 Rank: 200
Murray's one-year deal with the Bills likely only positions him as a depth option, but his performance with the Broncos last year shouldn't be overlooked. Despite Denver's offense being held back by bottom-of-the-league QB play courtesy of Russell Wilson, Murray sustained an impressive 4.4 YPC for a total of 160-703-5 on the ground in 12 appearances. James Cook and Damien Harris do look like the clear favorites atop this depth chart, but Murray could prove more than capable if he ends up being called upon. The 33-year-old veteran may not have too much left in the tank, however.
- Round 18, Pick 347 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1216 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 19, Pick 374 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1270 - 2022 Rank: 1001
- Round 20, Pick 387 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1425 - 2022 Rank: 314
- Round 21, Pick 414 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 286 - 2022 Rank: 934
Evans was expected to compete for a passing-down role coming out of Michigan in 2021, but he's spent most of his pro career buried on the depth chart. In 2022, he was often a healthy scratch and did not see much playing time on offense. Evans fell behind Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine and even Trayveon Williams on the team's depth chart by the end of the year. Although Perine has now moved to Denver, the Bengals subsequently drafted Chase Brown to enter the competition for backup roles behind Mixon, whose contract and off-field issues do create a potential complication. But even if Mixon is rendered unavailable for one reason or another, the Bengals might just sign another veteran back rather than leaning on an unproven player like Evans.
- Round 22, Pick 427 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 534 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 23, Pick 454 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1543 - 2022 Rank: 246
- Round 24, Pick 467 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 246 - 2022 Rank: 74
In 2021, Patterson played seven games for the Lions, missing just one kick. He maintained this impressive performance in 2022 by converting 30 out of 35 field goals and 36 out of 37 attempts on PATs while playing for the Jaguars. Although only attempting four FGs from 50-plus yards, he boasts career conversion rates of 87.8 percent and 97.3 percent on FGs and PATs, respectively. Despite his successes, the Jags decided to trade him to the Lions, as they preferred the experience of Brandon McManus. Patterson now has the opportunity to compete for a kicker position with John Parker Romo in Detroit. The victor may end up having fantasy value, kicking for a dome team that scored a lot of points last season.
- Round 25, Pick 494 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1352 - 2022 Rank: 398
- Round 26, Pick 507 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2612 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 27, Pick 534 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2343 - 2022 Rank: 381
Tonyan signed a one-year deal with the Bears and is expected to be the No. 2 tight end behind Cole Kmet. However, preseason reports indicate that Chicago will use more two tight end sets than they have in the past. As a result, Tonyan could be on the field for a majority of the snaps. Aside from the career year that Tonyan had in 2020 with Green Bay, when he caught 52 passes for 586 yards and 11 touchdowns, he averaged 213 yards and 1.5 touchdowns in his other four seasons. He should be a solid complement to Kmet, but Tonyan is likely to have an inconsistent role as a receiver. However, should Kmet miss time, Tonyan's fantasy value could take a significant jump.
- Round 28, Pick 547 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1630 - 2022 Rank: 122
- Round 29, Pick 574 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1631 - 2022 Rank: 276
- Round 30, Pick 587 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 339 - 2022 Rank: 347
After totaling just 425 yards without a touchdown his first four NFL seasons, Brown racked up 43 catches for 555 yards and three touchdowns on 74 targets for the Cowboys in 2022. That's actually the highest 2022 yardage total for any wide receiver set to play for the Texans in 2023, so it isn't a given that Brown will be buried deep down the depth chart after signing a one-year, $2.6 million contract with Houston in March. His competition for snaps includes Robert Woods and Nico Collins, as well as John Metchie (hamstring), Nathaniel Dell and Xavier Hutchinson. The last three have yet to play a snap in the NFL, so Brown's experience could help him build an early rapport with rookie QB C.J. Stroud and earn a prominent role with his new team.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
