In a draft that can only be described as 'meh', the Trafalgar Stalkers managed to secure a solid B- grade. With the 13th pick in a 30-round draft, they had high hopes of snagging some hidden gems, but unfortunately, their selections left much to be desired. Despite their lackluster performance, the Stalkers are projected to finish 7th in the league with a record of 9-5-0 and a total of 1944.19 points. It seems like their opponents should be more worried about their own performance than the Stalkers' formidable lineup.
One shining moment in the Stalkers' draft was their best pick, where they managed to grab Travis Kelce at the 13th spot, even though his average draft position was 7th. It's a small victory, but hey, we'll take what we can get. On the other hand, their worst pick was a head-scratcher. They reached for Russell Wilson at 93, despite his average draft position being a more reasonable 130. Maybe they know something we don't, or maybe they just got caught up in the excitement of the moment. Who knows? One thing's for sure, the Stalkers seem to have a thing for stacking their team with players from the same team. With Jalin Hyatt, Isaiah Hodgins, and Eric Gray all on their roster, they're hoping for some serious team chemistry. Let's just hope it doesn't turn into a case of too much of a good thing.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 13 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 8 - 2022 Rank: 27
A tight end only in title, Kelce is the WR1 of the Chiefs for all practical purposes. If one figures Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league and Kelce is basically his WR1, then it's easy to see why Kelce is a consensus first-round fantasy pick, and one who often goes as high as the top five. There's no historical precedent for tight ends to be drafted so high in fantasy, but Kelce continues to justify the expense year after year. The question is how much longer Kelce can continue to produce at these unprecedented levels. Unpleasant as it is to think about, the specter of decline looms with Kelce turning 34 in October, and it's unclear how easily he'll run his current route tree if he loses a step. Kelce certainly didn't look like a player facing decline in 2022, as his 152 targets and 12 touchdowns were both career highs. So long as Kelce remains in full form he has no imitators and is worthy of first round selection.
- Round 2, Pick 28 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 21 - 2022 Rank: 54
The 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Smith followed up his strong rookie campaign with an even better Year 2. Rather than being overshadowed by A.J. Brown after he was acquired from the Titans, the different skill sets of the two wideouts proved to complement each other perfectly, and their presence downfield allowed Jalen Hurts to break out and join the ranks of elite NFL quarterbacks. The two receivers saw similar volumes, and while Brown's size and athleticism made him a better deep threat, Smith's sharp route-running allowed him to pick apart defenses in the intermediate parts of the field. The Eagles had little turnover on the offensive side of the ball after their NFC Championship, so Smith's role figures to remain stable in 2023. He should continue to feature prominently in debates about who the best No. 2 receiver in the league is, alongside Tee Higgins and Jaylen Waddle.
- Round 3, Pick 53 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 59 - 2022 Rank: 104
Conner overcame a rough team situation for the second year in a row to post excellent production. In 13 games, He totaled 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite terrible run blocking from the Cardinals, he was able to produce due to a 73rd percentile broken tackle rate and 72nd percentile yards after contact. His 4.3 yards per carry equaled his best total since 2018 when he was running behind a strong offensive line in Pittsburgh. He continues to be an excellent receiver, recording 65th percentile yards after the catch rate. His 46 receptions represented the second most of his career. Of course, Conner will miss time. He's missed between two and six games over the last six seasons, but as the running back position goes, that's not terrible either. He continues to be disrespected in fantasy drafts. it's likely that people overrate his injury history. It's also possible that they remember the weak start to the season that he had last year. But going into his age-28 season, he still should have another year of solid production. and as long as you're prepared for him missing some time, drafting him to be an RB2 makes sense.
- Round 4, Pick 68 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 142 - 2022 Rank: 50
Cook had strong season numbers last year, but as the season wore on, he began to look like a running back in decline. Although he started the season with six games between 90 and 119 rushing yards in Weeks 1 through 10, he only had two games with at least 72 yards in his last nine games (including playoffs ). His 69 rushing yards per game was his lowest total since 2018. He also lost his explosive element. He only rushed for more than 20 yards on 1.8 percent of his carries. After the Vikings released him in June, Cook signed with the Jets in August to provide depth behind Breece Hall. But Hall is coming off a torn ACL and might not be ready for Week 1. If not, then Cook would step into the lead-back role. Even when Hall is healthy, Cook should siphon a fair amount of touches. But Cook's best days are likely behind him, and a committee role would lower his fantasy value along with his declining skills.
- Round 5, Pick 93 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 132 - 2022 Rank: 22
Wilson's first season in Denver was a disaster of inconceivable proportions, especially since he was stepping into an offense that was pre-stocked with on-paper talent. The consensus assumption was that Pete Carroll and the Seahawks had held Wilson back for so many years, so the scale of disappointment is difficult to put into words. Luckily for Wilson and the Broncos offense, they'll be replacing one of the worst coaches of recent memory with one of the best, and one specifically noted for building high-octane offenses. Not all of Wilson's 2022 struggles can be blamed on the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett, but the distance between Hackett and new hire Sean Payton is enormous. If Payton can get Wilson back in his element then the Broncos skill position players will be in position to produce more like what was expected going into 2022. There's depth at all of running back, wide receiver and tight end, so Wilson almost has to bounce back from last year's brutal total of 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.
- Round 6, Pick 108 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 88 - 2022 Rank: 274
For a player with his physical gifts and consistent production, it's kind of remarkable that Cooks has never found a long-term home in the NFL. Since being selected in the first round in 2014, the speedster has played for four teams, and a March trade from the Texans has the Cowboys poised to be team No. 5. Through his travels, Cooks has topped 1,000 receiving yards six times in the last eight seasons, and the fact that he didn't reach that mark in Houston last year falls squarely on the shoulders of the erratic quarterback play. While he'll turn 30 in September, he still possesses the speed to force defenders back on their heels, and Dak Prescott should be the best QB he's worked with since he was Tom Brady's top option on the outside with the Patriots in 2017. CeeDee Lamb has that role in Dallas in 2023, but Cooks can still make an impact as the No. 2 wideout.
- Round 7, Pick 133 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1143 - 2022 Rank: 121
Warner is entering his sixth season in the NFL and has been the picture of consistency. He's been available for either 16 or 17 games in every campaign, benefitting from playing a major role in an excellent defense but also getting some rest due to the excellent depth the team boasts. Warner has no fewer than 118 tackles in a given season and has at least 79 solo tackles in all five of his professional campaigns. If there's a downside to his game, it's a lack of production as a pass rusher, as he has only 6.5 career sacks. On the other hand, it's hard to argue with his work in coverage as he has 35 passes defended and four picks to his ledger. All told, he's an extremely reliable fantasy option due to both his skill and role in a prolific defense.
- Round 8, Pick 148 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1203 - 2022 Rank: 118
Jewell was limited to only two games in 2021 due to a torn pectoral, and he appeared to be in for another injury-marred season in 2022. He managed to suit up for only three of Denver's first seven games due to calf and knee injuries. However, he showed exactly what he's capable of when healthy across the second half of the campaign by racking up double-digit tackles across seven of his final nine matchups. All told, he managed a career-high 128 stops and surpassed the century mark for the second time in his career. Jewell is heading into the final year of his rookie contract, and he'll be locked into a starting inside linebacker along fellow prolific tackler Alex Singleton. Assuming health is on his side, Jewell is a decent bet to top 150 tackles to go along with some sacks, pass breakups, and forced fumbles.
- Round 9, Pick 173 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1195 - 2022 Rank: 68
- Round 10, Pick 188 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1300 - 2022 Rank: 425
After working in a reserve role during his rookie season of 2021, Deablo looked to be gaining the trust of his team in his sophomore year. Through eight games, he had played 441 defensive snaps and tallied an impressive 74 total tackles. However, his season ended in Week 9 after suffering a significant forearm injury. Deablo proved to be a strong defender against the run, but moving forward, he'll have to prove he can be effective in coverage while. In an ideal world, he'd also add some pass-rushing ability to his skills profile, as he has yet to record a sack in his career. While he's not yet a complete player, Deablo is a safe bet to work with the first team this season he should have the chance to post some gaudy tackle totals.
- Round 11, Pick 213 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 392 - 2022 Rank: 179
- Round 12, Pick 228 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 239 - 2022 Rank: 1526
The most encouraging sign for Hyatt as a rookie might be the fact that the Giants traded up to select him in the third round this spring. The Tennessee product showed explosiveness in college and has the speed and length to be a deep threat in the NFL, but he joins a crowded and unsettled depth chart in New York. Hyatt mainly played the slot for the Volunteers, but the Giants already have free-agent signing Parris Campbell and 2022 second-round pick Wan'Dale Robinson competing for that role, and Sterling Shepard can't be ruled out of the mix either if he comes back healthy from his latest injury. Hyatt might have the highest upside of that group and is the player the team sees as part of its future at wide receiver, but he'll need to earn his snaps in 2023.
- Round 13, Pick 253 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 551 - 2022 Rank: 309
- Round 14, Pick 268 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 194 - 2022 Rank: 366
Hodgins had only four catches in his first two NFL seasons with the Bills and had trouble escaping Buffalo's practice squad in the first half of 2022 before finally being cut loose. Claimed off waivers by the injury-ravaged Giants, the Oregon State product quickly climbed the depth chart once he got his chance and emerged as Daniel Jones' most dependable target. Hodgins was especially impressive down the stretch, catching TDs in five of six games through the end of the regular season and into the playoffs before capping that run with an eight-game, 105-yard performance in a wild-card win over the Vikings. New York added plenty of competition for targets in the offseason, bringing in Parris Campbell from the Colts and tight end Darren Waller from the Raiders before drafting Jalin Hyatt in the third round, and a healthy Wan'Dale Robinson could also make an impact. The chemistry Hodgins established with Jones last year should serve him well though, and he figures to maintain a key role in the Giants' passing attack.
- Round 15, Pick 293 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 235 - 2022 Rank: 969
A sixth-round pick last season, Ingram had an uninspiring but inconclusive rookie year as a "low floor, high ceiling" prospect. He averaged just 2.2 yards per carry, but had only 27 rushing attempts. Ingram, though, is an above-average athlete with a 4.53 40 and 122-inch broad jump at 221 pounds. And he doesn't face a lot of competition in the Arizona backfield behind injury-prone James Conner with only Corey Clement, Ty'Son Williams and undrafted free agent Emari Demercado with whom to contend. A strong camp should solidify his spot as Conner's backup and put him in line for more work than he had last season.
- Round 16, Pick 308 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 289 - 2022 Rank: 1400
Metchie sat out his entire rookie season after being diagnosed with leukemia, but the 2022 second-round pick is expected to return healthy this season. He had 1,142 yards and eight TDs at Alabama in 2021 prior to being drafted 44th overall by the Texans. Metchie will have a chance to carve out a prominent role in Houston's new-look passing attack once he recovers from the hamstring strain he suffered during offseason workouts. Metchie, along with 2023 draft picks Nathaniel Dell (third round) and Xavier Hutchinson (sixth round) have yet to suit up in the NFL, while the more experienced Robert Woods, Nico Collins and Noah Brown all fell short of 600 receiving yards last season. Metchie's capable of emerging out of that underwhelming group as the top wide receiver for rookie second overall pick C.J. Stroud, or at least as a starter. While Metchie's floor is low after a year away from football, there's certainly upside here given the lack of established options ahead of him and the high likelihood that Houston will be forced to pass while playing from behind after going 11-38-1 over the previous three seasons.
- Round 17, Pick 333 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 240 - 2022 Rank: 1516
Dell didn't have to travel too far between college and the NFL, as the wide receiver out of Houston was selected 69th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft by the Texans. What Dell lacks in size (5-foot-8 and 165 pounds), he made up for with production in college, leading the NCAA in both receiving yards (1,398) and touchdowns (17) last season. Due to his modest frame, Dell will likely operate as a slot receiver in the NFL, but he could have an opportunity to carve out a substantial role out of the gate in an underwhelming Houston receiving corps. No WR on Houston's roster reached 600 yards last season, and the entire team will be adapting to new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and new QB C.J. Stroud. Dell could also be the team's punt and kickoff returner on special teams. He plays faster than his good-not-great 4.49 40-yard dash but will need to bulk up without sacrificing speed to hang around in the NFL and avoid injuries.
- Round 18, Pick 348 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 294 - 2022 Rank: 196
Last year, Boswell only made 71.4 percent of his field-goal attempts, which ended his streak of at least 90 percent in each of the previous three years. However, it should be taken into account that he attempted only 28 field goals, 19 of which were from 40 yards or longer. He only made half of the 40-49 yard attempts, but impressively went 7-for-9 from 50 yards or more, following his 8-for-9 record from the previous year. It's of course worth noting that Boswell missed five games and was attached to a terrible offense. He'll likely be healthier this year, but improvement from the Pittsburgh offense appears closer to a 50/50 proposition, largely depending on the progress of second-year QB Kenny Pickett.
- Round 19, Pick 373 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 298 - 2022 Rank: 789
Shakir handled a depth role for Buffalo as a rookie last year, after being drafted in the fifth round. He mixed in with Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder and Cole Beasley behind No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs, ending the year with a 10-161-1 in 14 appearances. With McKenzie, Crowder and Beasley no longer in Buffalo, Shakir is facing a clear path to establishing himself as the team's No. 3 wideout, and he's a better fit for the slot than either Diggs or Davis. The downside is that rookie first-round tight end Dalton Kincaid may hog snaps as a "big slot" option, and the Bills have invested substantially more in him than Shakir.
- Round 20, Pick 388 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 261 - 2022 Rank: 1548
Given his performance as both a runner and receiver at Illinois and his impressive athletic performance at the 2023 Scouting Combine, Brown should be taken more seriously than the average fifth-round pick. He also did well to land in Cincinnati, where his impressive speed (4.43 40) and quickness (127-inch broad jump) could play well in a pass-first offense. Over his final two collegiate seasons, Brown ran for 2,648 yards (5.3 yards per carry) and 15 touchdowns and caught 41 of his 49 targets for 382 yards and three touchdowns (83.7 percent catch rate, 7.8 yards per target) in 22 games for Illinois. Notably, Brown is faster and more skilled than both Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans, the two veterans he'll challenge for depth roles behind Joe Mixon. The competition becomes all the more interesting given Mixon's off-field issues and lack of guaranteed salary, though the Bengals thus far have suggested they expect Mixon to stay on the team and handle a key role again.
- Round 21, Pick 413 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2549 - 2022 Rank: 290
McKenzie signed a one-year deal with the Colts after posting career highs in targets (65), catches (42) and receiving yards (423) with the Bills in 2022. He'll compete for the slot receiver role against rookie third-round pick Josh Downs, and Downs is likely the preseason favorite in that competition over the 28-year-old McKenzie. Michael Pittman should continue to operate as the team's No. 1 WR, and Alec Pierce is the clear favorite to start opposite Pittman on the outside. McKenzie mustered four TDs in 2022 and five TDs in 2020 despite operating as the No. 3 WR at best in Buffalo, but replicating that success will be difficult in Indianapolis while catching passes from either rookie fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew. Even if Richardson hits his most optimistic projection out of the gate, McKenzie's likely in for a QB downgrade compared to Josh Allen. Throw in the run-first nature of the Colts' offense, and there's limited upside to be found with McKenzie, even if he holds off Downs for a starting spot.
- Round 22, Pick 428 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 195 - 2022 Rank: 621
It's difficult to evaluate Ridder on the four games he started as a rookie to close out last season for the Falcons. They had a run-heavy offense with little interest in leaning on the pass and had already lost TE Kyle Pitts for the season by the time Ridder took over. Even though Pitts was having a disappointing year, his presence would've helped in an offense that otherwise had little beyond rookie WR Drake London. The good news is that Ridder took care of the football, finishing without any interceptions while attempting 26-to-33 passes in each game. On the other hand, he averaged better than 6.6 YPA just once and wasn't exactly taking a lot of risks or moving the offense consistently. And although the 2022 third-round pick was a running threat in college, he finished three of his four starts last year with fewer than 10 rushing yards. The Falcons apparently saw enough to make him their starter entering Week 1 this year, but they did sign a high-end backup in Taylor Heinicke in case things don't work out with the second-year pro.
- Round 23, Pick 453 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 394 - 2022 Rank: 61
The Texans haven't done much right in the past couple of seasons, but selecting Pitre in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft certainly appears to be one. The rookie out of Baylor excelled with 147 tackles and five interceptions, wildly exceeding expectations while topping the team in both categories. One thing to keep an eye on is Pitre's deployment moving forward. He opened the 2022 campaign at strong safety and appeared to be heading to a reserve role after a number of miscues. Instead, the team shifted him to free safety, where he seemingly found a groove and some comfort on the field. The Texans did a lot of work on defense during the offseason, but Pitre is expected to remain a starter alongside veteran Jimmie Ward. All told he'll be looking to prove his initial production in the NFL was no fluke.
- Round 24, Pick 468 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 330 - 2022 Rank: 1550
A lack of measurables or ideal size kept Gray from being an early round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but after being taken in the fifth round by the Giants, he has a chance to carve out a role as a rookie. While he didn't show much power or explosiveness in college, Gray demonstrated solid passing-down skills out of the backfield, and his elusiveness made life difficult for would-be tacklers in space. He'll compete with veteran Matt Breida for what few touches are available behind Saquon Barkley, but both backups could have fantasy value if Barkley gets hurt or winds up in a contract holdout.
- Round 25, Pick 493 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 2351 - 2022 Rank: 1403
Austin topped 1,000 receiving yards his final two seasons at Memphis in 2020 and 2021. Unfortunately, the fourth-round pick suffered a foot injury during training camp last August and had to start his rookie year on injured reserve. Although he was able to return to practice by early October, he ultimately wasn't activated from IR and thus finished his rookie season without playing in a game. While he is anticipated to be fit for the 2023 season, he's unlikely to start training camp any higher than fourth or fifth on the depth chart after Allen Robinson joined the Steelers in the offseason. Austin faces a difficult path to fantasy relevance, competing for a spot at the end of the depth chart in an offense that isn't likely to have one of the better passing attacks in the league.
- Round 26, Pick 508 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 303 - 2022 Rank: 1558
Rodriguez heads to the Commanders after an impressive college career at Kentucky that saw him grind out 33 rushing touchdowns in 39 games in the four seasons in which he had a significant role in the Wildcats' backfield. While the 2023 sixth-round pick doesn't have breakaway speed or explosiveness, Rodriguez can crash through would-be tacklers and pick up yards after contact, an important trait now that he'll be running behind a Washington offensive line that was lackluster at best in 2022. Rodriguez could beat out Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson for the No. 1 job in training camp, as the former fell out of favor and the latter didn't do much as a rookie last year, but Rodriguez wouldn't likely dislodge Gibson from his passing-down role. A backfield committee under new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is a distinct possibility.
- Round 27, Pick 533 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 367 - 2022 Rank: 277
- Round 28, Pick 548 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 2552 - 2022 Rank: 491
Zappe flashed enough in his four appearances as a rookie, throwing for 781 yards with five TDs and three interceptions. He drew two starts while Mac Jones dealt with an ankle injury, but played 65-plus percent of snaps in the other two contests. There's been some buzz that the 2022 fourth-rounder out of Western Kentucky could compete with Jones for the Week 1 starting job this season, but Zappe's likelier path to lining up under center would be if Jones struggles mid-season. Zappe was a prolific passer in the NCAA, where he posted a record 62 passing touchdowns, so his upside shouldn't be discounted if he does get a chance to start.
- Round 29, Pick 573 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2354 - 2022 Rank: 827
An undrafted rookie free agent out of Florida, Davis wound up serving as the Cowboys' No. 3 running back most of last year behind Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard after Rico Dowdle suffered a season-ending ankle injury. Davis was up to the task, averaging a decent 4.2 yards per carry on his limited volume. However, he fell down the depth chart this summer and ultimately was waived at the end of August, leaving Dowdle and rookie Deuce Vaughn as depth behind Pollard in Dallas.
- Round 30, Pick 588 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2606 - 2022 Rank: 1515
Although Hooker may be considered a potential future quarterback for Detroit, his chances of playing as a rookie are slim. Jared Goff currently holds the top spot on the depth chart, and Hooker is still recovering from a torn ACL he sustained in November of 2022, with no definite timeline for his return. Coach Dan Campbell has said that Hooker is likely to have a "redshirt" year. Nevertheless, the Lions don't have significant commitments to Goff once the current season ends, creating a small opportunity for Hooker to compete for a starting position in 2024.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
