In the SMALL TOWN AMERICA II fantasy draft, the CATS had high hopes as they entered the fray with the 4th pick. However, their dreams of glory quickly turned into a nightmare as they stumbled their way through 30 rounds of drafting, earning themselves a dismal F grade. With a projected record of 1-13-0 and a finish in 17th place, it seems the CATS may have used up all their nine lives before the season even began.
The CATS' draft strategy left many scratching their heads, as they managed to draft a whopping 5 cornerbacks, far surpassing the league average of 1.7. Perhaps they were hoping to corner the market on interceptions, but it's safe to say they missed the mark. Adding insult to injury, the CATS made a questionable decision with their picks, reaching for Marquise Brown at 84 when their ADP was 99, and passing up on Darnell Mooney until pick 164, despite an ADP of 132. It's clear that the CATS have some serious catching up to do if they want to avoid being the laughingstock of the league this season.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 4 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 103 - 2022 Rank: 19
For the second time in three years, injuries cost Prescott a significant portion of the season. Even when he was healthy though, a new issue arose as he tied for the league lead with 15 interceptions despite playing in only 12 games. Prescott's accuracy wasn't the problem, as he was as steady as ever, but a downgraded group of receivers that had little quality beyond top wideout CeeDee Lamb and dependable tight end Dalton Schultz gave the quarterback no margin for error. The inexperienced replacements for Amari Cooper couldn't gain much separation, and as a result Prescott kept having to try and fit the ball into windows that just weren't there. The Cowboys attempted to fix that problem in the offseason by trading for speedy veteran Brandin Cooks, and the team is also hoping Michael Gallup can return to form now that his ACL surgery is further behind him. The biggest change comes on the sidelines though, as offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was let go and head coach Mike McCarthy will now handle the play-calling. If McCarthy's scheme can accentuate Prescott's strengths, his production and efficiency should return to the level he displayed a couple years ago.
- Round 2, Pick 37 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 82 - 2022 Rank: 183
Pierce was a pleasant surprise for the Texans as a rookie, even if the 2022 fourth-round pick's heroics didn't translate to many wins. After averaging 5.5 YPC as part of a platoon in college at Florida, Pierce rushed for 939 yards and four TDs in 13 games for the Texans before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. Pierce's 4.3 YPC in Houston was nothing to write home about, but that production came in the context of few threats in the passing game to keep defenses from keying on the run. The Texans are hoping to have changed that by drafting QB C.J. Stroud second overall in 2023. While they also bolstered their backfield depth by signing former Bills RB Devin Singletary, Pierce should continue to handle the majority of the workload as long as he's healthy. To that end, Pierce has been practicing at full speed at OTAs, suggesting he has long since put the ankle injury behind him. There's also room for further growth as a pass catcher for Pierce, as Houston still has an underwhelming receiving corps. Pierce caught 30 of 39 passes for 165 yards and one touchdown as a rookie.
- Round 3, Pick 44 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 14 - 2022 Rank: 96
Walker proved to be a very explosive running back in his rookie season. He finished the season with at least 100 yards rushing in each of his last three games and in five of his last 10 contests. On the season, he ended up with 1,215 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns on 255 touches. Although Walker had an outstanding 96th-percentile broken tackle rate, he posted just 54th-percentile yards after contact. He was very good as a receiver by posting a 67th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But Walker has a bit of a boom-or-bust nature to his game. He often will have a number of short runs before breaking off a long strike, but there are plenty of running backs in the past that have lived that way and been successful. However, Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second-round of this year's draft, which is not good news for Walker. It seems that Walker will enter the season as the lead runner, with Charbonnet having at least a significant change-of-pace role. Charbonnet required too much draft capital to sit on the bench. The situation will be enough of a timeshare to view Walker as a fantasy RB2 option, instead of the RB1 scenario he was shaping up to be before the Draft.
- Round 4, Pick 77 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 50 - 2022 Rank: 110
Much of the discussion surrounding Kamara the past couple years has focused on a potential suspension, and the NFL finally made a decision in early August with the announcement of a three-game ban. Otherwise, Kamara is no longer the top-three running back he was the first few years of his career, though he's still recorded at least 1,300 scrimmage yards in each of his six seasons. The past two years he got more carries (240 and 223) but fewer targets (67, 77) after starting his career with four straight seasons of at least 97 targets and fewer than 200 carries. Much of that was related to the Saints transitioning to a run-first offense after Drew Brees' retirement, and it's possible Kamara shifts back toward more receiving work after the team signed a veteran QB (Derek Carr) and a 224-pound RB (Jamaal Williams) and spent a third-round pick on RB Kendre Miller. Less likely is Kamara recovering the TD prowess and remarkable per-touch efficiency of his early years, in part because he's lost a step and in part because Williams and QB/TE Taysom Hill figure to get most of the goal-line carries. There's still potential for Kamara to be an every-week fantasy starter once he completes the three-game suspension, but a high-end-RB1 ceiling is no longer within his range of outcomes.
- Round 5, Pick 84 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 102 - 2022 Rank: 243
Brown is at his best when he's used as a downfield target, however he had a career low 6.6 yards per target and 10.6 yards per reception with the Cardinals last year. It didn't help that Kyler Murray missed the end of the season with a knee injury, but regardless, this was far from a big play offense last year. There's also concern that Murray may not be ready to start the season due to his injury. Brown did miss Weeks 7 through 11 with an injury last year, but he had been coming on just before then. He posted at least 68 yards in each of the five games leading up to week 11. And during that stretch, he averaged 11.6 targets with no fewer than nine in any game. but once he returned, and specially due to the quarterback play, he never surpassed 61 yards the rest of the way. If Murray was going to be a full go for the season, Brown's fantasy value would be much higher. but if Murray misses time, the drop off in quarterback play is so significant that it hurts Brown's fantasy value.
- Round 6, Pick 117 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 107 - 2022 Rank: 1496
Kincaid was selected as the No. 1 tight end off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, No. 25 overall, by virtue of his pass-catching chops. Dawson Knox is already established as a red zone threat and capable blocker, and he's spent years building chemistry with Josh Allen, meaning it could be difficult for Kincaid to get a foothold out of the gate. Of course, the draft capital invested in Kincaid solidifies him as Buffalo's future, and though rookies at his position usually get off to a slow start, Kincaid is a rare talent. He could be capable of taking the field at the same times as Knox on occasion, by virtue of operating out of the slot, as long as he's able to get up to speed at the NFL level early. Buffalo's offense is high-octane enough to feed multiple mouths, but in the end, it's more likely that Kincaid emerges down the stretch than in the early weeks of the season.
- Round 7, Pick 124 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 173 - 2022 Rank: 152
Thielen scored six touchdowns last year and 30 total in his final three seasons in Minnesota, but every other stat points to decline, including his 2022 averages of 4.1 catches for 42.1 yards per game. Undeterred, the Panthers signed Thielen to a three-year, $25 million contract that includes $14 million guaranteed at signing, ensuring No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young will have at least one experienced starting wideout to target. The team also brought in WR DJ Chark and TE Hayden Hurst, later adding WR Jonathan Mingo in the second round of the draft. It was a full revamp of the skill positions, while the offensive line has more stability after making huge strides throughout last season. A full-on renaissance is unlikely for Thielen in his age-33 season, but he does at least seem locked in for a starting job and at least a handful of targets per week. Whether that translates to low-end fantasy value or not partially depends on how Young develops under new Panthers head coach Frank Reich.
- Round 8, Pick 157 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 76 - 2022 Rank: 190
Pickens, a 2022 second-round pick, had a sluggish and injury-ridden conclusion to his time at Georgia on account of an ACL tear suffered during spring practices in 2021. He recovered during his rookie season with the Steelers, fetching 52 receptions for 801 yards and four touchdowns. He made several remarkable catches and showed a knack for snagging contested ones, yet struggled with obtaining separation from cornerbacks. As a result, he drew only 84 targets in 17 games despite playing 882 snaps. At 6-foot-3, with 4.47 speed and strong hands, Pickens doesn't necessarily need to be a great route-runner to thrive. He does figure to make at least small steps forward in that regard, and he enters Year 2 locked in alongside Diontae Johnson and TE Pat Freiermuth as the main targets for QB Kenny Pickett. As bad as Pickett's overall numbers were last season, he showed progress throughout the year and figures to benefit from the Steelers' sizable offseason investment in blocking. There's also the matter of Johnson finishing with no TDs and fewer than 900 yards on nearly 150 targets last year, which would seem to point toward other players -- namely Pickens and Freiermuth -- taking on more of the team's receiving volume this season.
- Round 9, Pick 164 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 150 - 2022 Rank: 424
Mooney had a strong season in 202, but with the Bears starting the 2022 season with an offense that had no intention of passing the football, he got off to a horrible start. He had four catches for 27 yards through the first three games. Finally, Chicago started to address their passing attack. Mooney went on to post at least 50 yards in each of his next five games, and in his final eight games, he averaged 58 yards per game. He then suffered an ankle injury that sidelined him for the rest of the season. With the Bears adding DJ Moore to the wide receiver rotation, Mooney now should slot in as the second option. And with the full expectation that the team will try to feature Justin Fields as a passer, the offense has a chance to explode. If that happens, Mooney is in a great position to have a bounce-back season. Even if he doesn't see the massive target share he saw in 2021, he'll see less attention, and the quality of targets could improve. Mooney can win routes at all levels of the field. He'll have every opportunity to have a productive season. He may be severely undervalued in fantasy drafts if the Bears offense breaks out.
- Round 10, Pick 197 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1185 - 2022 Rank: 958
Leonard was on the way to establishing himself as one of the most well-rounded middle linebackers in the league. Across his first four relatively healthy seasons in the league, he posted 15 sacks, 30 passes defended, and 11 interceptions. That doesn't account for the fact that he also had over 120 tackles in each of those campaigns. Unfortunately, both his long and short-term future in the league may be in jeopardy. Leonard had two surgeries on his neck and back in the span of roughly five months in 2022. That limited him to only three games last year and has also kept him off the field during off-season team activities in 2023. Both Leonard and the team have publicly stated they hope he is available to begin the regular season, but his potential IDP value will depend entirely on his health outlook come training camp.
- Round 11, Pick 204 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 97 - 2022 Rank: 382
Doubs had a lot of opportunities early in the season when the Packers were aggressively trying to find an answer at receiver to complement Allen Lazard. Doubs impressed in some game, but often looked like the rookie that he was. It didn't help that Aaron Rodgers probably lost confidence in him from time to time. But due to a lack of weapons, Rodgers had to keep going back to him. Doubs then dealt with a high-ankle sprain that cost him time. If Doubs is to take a big second-year leap, it will be with a new quarterback in Jordan Love. If Love struggles, Doubs will as well, though he has an excellent opportunity to be a starting outside receiver across from Christian Watson, with Lazard joining Rodgers in New York. Doubs' season likely will hinge on how quickly Love develops.
- Round 12, Pick 237 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 183 - 2022 Rank: 191
Wilson re-signs with Miami to spend a sixth straight season in coach Mike McDaniel's scheme. Four of those years were in San Francisco, where Wilson proved himself as a more than capable rotational option. Durability issues have remained constant as well, though. Wilson hasn't managed to suit up for double-digit games since 2020, and he's only managed that feat twice in his NFL career. After joining the Dolphins mid-season via trade from San Francisco last year, Wilson established himself in a roughly even timeshare alongside Raheem Mostert, though he was the volume leader prior to injuring his hip. Miami could proceed with an identical layout to open the 2023 slate, with Mostert also having re-signed this offseason, but rookie third-round pick De'Von Achane reportedly began pushing for opportunities early in OTAs. Wilson is a solid pass-catcher and showed elite efficiency last season (5.1 YPC), but he'll open this year on injured reserve and thus is set to miss at least four games.
- Round 13, Pick 244 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 225 - 2022 Rank: 208
Dicker faced a tough competition against Dustin Hopkins for the chance to kick for the Chargers in 2023. Dicker was the incumbent, however, and ended up winning the job this August. Dicker isn't just any incumbent, moreover - he made all 24 of his extra point attempts and all but one of his 22 field goal attempts in 2022. The one field goal Dicker missed highlights his potential vulnerability, however; it was the only field goal he attempted from 50-plus yards.
- Round 14, Pick 277 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 710 - 2022 Rank: 524
- Round 15, Pick 284 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 724 - 2022 Rank: 975
- Round 16, Pick 317 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1347 - 2022 Rank: 1677
- Round 17, Pick 324 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1345 - 2022 Rank: 1843
- Round 18, Pick 357 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 947 - 2022 Rank: 1207
- Round 19, Pick 364 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 952 - 2022 Rank: 1686
- Round 20, Pick 397 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 954 - 2022 Rank: 1196
- Round 21, Pick 404 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 171 - 2022 Rank: 567
While Thomas stayed mostly healthy last year after a torn Achilles ruined his 2021 campaign, he wasn't able to recapture the form he showed in his breakout 2020 season, when he posted a 72-670-6 line on 109 targets. Now 32 years old, it's possible he'll never regain those heights, but Thomas will get a near-ideal situation this year in which he'll try and prove that production wasn't a complete fluke. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell offers a potential solution for the franchise's long-running woes at that position, but more importantly, new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy brings with him a Kansas City scheme that helped put Travis Kelce on a Hall of Fame trajectory, Thomas is no Kelce, but he has little competition for the top spot on the depth chart if Bieniemy decides to lean on his starting tight end once again.
- Round 22, Pick 437 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2631 - 2022 Rank: 1911
The Buccaneers selected Trask in the second-round of the 2021 draft. After watching Tom Brady for two years, he got the chance to compete with Baker Mayfield in training camp but didn't end up winning the job. Last year, Trask attempted nine passes in the season finale, so he basically has no NFL game experience. Even though Mayfield has struggled in recent years, his edge in experience seems to have convinced the Tampa coaching staff. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin leading the receiver group, the Bucs still have plenty of firepower to put points on the board. So it's unlikely the team treats this year as a rebuild. Should Trask eventually take over the starting role, his weapons would put him in the top-24 QB discussion, though perhaps not the Top 16 given his minimal potential as a rushing threat.
- Round 23, Pick 444 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 2482 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 24, Pick 477 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 734 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 25, Pick 484 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1584 - 2022 Rank: 490
- Round 26, Pick 517 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 757 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 27, Pick 524 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 972 - 2022 Rank: 1813
- Round 28, Pick 557 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 996 - 2022 Rank: 1310
- Round 29, Pick 564 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 354 - 2022 Rank: -
Now in his fourth year at tight end after playing college wide receiver at Stetson, we're about at the point in Parham's career arc where we might start to seem like a more finished product. Parham has always been an intriguing athlete, boasting sub-4.7 speed at over 6-foot-8, so if his skill set catches up to his athletic tools, he could be a force on the field. Parham has been a good backup in the meantime, and he might have broken out already in 2022 if he hadn't had the season derailed by injury. Parham was only able to play 137 snaps in 2022 after playing 368 snaps the prior year, and he showed an improved target rate in 2022. It's a small sample, but it's encouraging that Parham drew 12 targets on those 137 snaps after drawing only 47 targets on the prior 588 snaps. While Gerald Everett appears locked in as the Chargers' starting tight end, Everett was not and has never been as efficient as Parham on a per-target basis.
- Round 30, Pick 597 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2386 - 2022 Rank: -
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
