In a draft that left fans clucking their tongues, the Red Chickens swooped in with a draft grade of D, signaling a bumpy road ahead. Projected to finish a lowly 15th, this team is setting their sights on the bottom of the pecking order. With a projected record of 4-10-0 and a schedule difficulty ranked 8th toughest out of 20 teams, it seems the Red Chickens will be scratching for wins this season.
While the Red Chickens may have found a few hidden gems, such as snagging Tank Bigsby at pick 169 (ADP 129), their worst pick of Jahan Dotson at pick 72 (ADP 104) left fans squawking in disbelief. To make matters worse, this team went all-in on one nest, drafting three players from the same team: Deebo Samuel, Javon Hargrave, and Sam Darnold. Perhaps they're hoping for some sort of poultry-based synergy, but it's more likely to result in a whole lot of feathers flying.
Share
ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 9 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 24 - 2022 Rank: 2
Allen has been strikingly consistent the last three seasons, though his 4,283 passing yards in 2022 took a slight dip, after he finished with over 4,400 the previous two years. He's had 37, 36 and 35 passing touchdowns consecutively, and his 2022 rushing line of 124-762-7 was almost identical to 2021's mark. Consistency and excellence don't often overlap, but it's a feat that Allen has unquestionably managed. The Bills are likewise running it back with a relatively similar roster, despite having yet again failed to advance past the AFC divisional round, though the addition of first-round TE Dalton Kincaid certainly provides upside. Allen managed to excel in 2022 despite playing through a serious elbow injury, though he's expected to be fully healthy by Week 1. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis return as his top receivers, while tight ends Dawson Knox and Kincaid should perform well as a tandem, even if the learning curve for rookies at the position is steep. Damien Harris could be a more helpful power rusher than Devin Singletary, who departed in free agency, but the stage is set for Allen to once again thrive on the ground as much as through the air.
- Round 2, Pick 32 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 34 - 2022 Rank: 176
After having an incredible season in 2021, Samuel wasn't nearly as productive last year. He still was lethal with a 98th-percentile yards after the catch rate. And he was still used all over the formation, including 56 percent of the time in the slot. But in the 13 games he played, he averaged less than eight touches. Also, his 11.3 yards per reception was a career low. Although impressive, his 5.5 yards per rush was less than the 6.2 he had in 2021, and he also was limited to 42 rushing attempts. At age 27, it is possible that he had his career year in 2021, and although a very talented player, he is simply part of a bigger picture on the 49ers in which he'll never be featured to the level that would make him a fantasy superstar.
- Round 3, Pick 49 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 42 - 2022 Rank: 151
Watson dealt with a nagging injury to start last season and didn't really come on until the second half of the season. He had an incredible stretch of four games between weeks 10 and 13 when he posted 323 yards, 49 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He was still good down the stretch, posting between 46 and 49 yards in each of his last four games, though he didn't score during that span. His speed is difference making, but his route running is still questionable. The drop off from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love could be problematic for him. However, he should be the clear No. 1 receiver, so he should get targeted often. But he's difficult to predict because if he doesn't improve his route running, defenses already understand that he can get over the top, which will allow them to prepare for that. Those who believe he'll figure out the route running, should project him aggressively, but that's not a guarantee to happen. Those who aren't sold on Watson building his versatility may require a more conservative projection than many analysts who are focusing solely on the upside.
- Round 4, Pick 72 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 95 - 2022 Rank: 242
Dotson came out of the gates firing as a rookie after being the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft, scoring four touchdowns in his first four NFL games, but a hamstring injury cut short his momentum for the next couple months. He found his groove again down the stretch, though, posting a 21-344-3 line from Week 13 on, and the Penn State product could be poised for a classic Year 2 breakout. While Terry McLaurin remains the Commanders' most reliable wideout, Dotson's speed and ability to make catches in traffic positions him as the better deep threat, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could take full advantage of those traits. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell also offers more upside than last year's starters, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke, did. Dotson saw one more target than McLaurin over those final five games of 2022, and he has a reasonable chance of emerging as the team's No. 1 receiver this season.
- Round 5, Pick 89 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 129 - 2022 Rank: 1494
Smith-Njigba was selected with the 20th pick in this year's draft, profiling as a difference-making slot receiver. Although his 40 time was unimpressive, he showed excellent agility at the NFL Combine, which is what great slot receivers need, with elite marks in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and short shuttle (3.93). His biggest roadblock to fantasy relevance is his landing spot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will take the majority of WR targets on a team that wants to dominate on the ground. Metcalf is the No. 1 receiver and Lockett, even in his 30s, is still playing at a high level. Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the third wide receiver it has lacked in recent years and could make an immediate impact in three-receiver sets.
- Round 6, Pick 112 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 272 - 2022 Rank: 45
Tannehill has been a game manager for the run-first Titans over the past few years, and the 35-year-old quarterback should be headed for a similar role in 2023. He produced a 33:7 TD: INT in 2020 while throwing to a receiving corps headlined by A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, but Tannehill has just a 34:20 TD: INT across 29 games over the two subsequent seasons, and the Titans haven't done much to restock their cupboard of pass-catching options. His top targets in 2023 apart from summer signing DeAndre Hopkins figure to be WR Treylon Burks and TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, a pair of second-year pros who combined for 894 receiving yards last year. Tannehill chipped in seven rushing TDs apiece in 2020 and 2021, but at age 35 and coming off a season-ending ankle injury, he's unlikely to replicate that production. Tannehill should hang onto the starting job as long as Derrick Henry's legs and the defense have Tennessee in the mix for a playoff spot in the weak AFC South, but this is the last year of Tannehill's contract, so the Titans won't hesitate to turn to rookie second-round pick Will Levis under center the moment they drop out of playoff contention.
- Round 7, Pick 129 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 118 - 2022 Rank: 1497
While it remains to be seen how quickly and how well Johnston adapts to the NFL, the first-round pick out of TCU has a lot of positive indicators in his prospect profile, and the Chargers have an interest in making him look good after selecting him 21st overall in the 2023 draft. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both target hogs, and Joshua Palmer can't be entirely written off after drawing 107 targets in 2022, but Johnston offers something new and exciting that the Chargers badly lacked previously: a convincing downfield threat. Williams and especially Allen are less than threatening downfield, which is a waste when you consider how great of a downfield passer Justin Herbert is. Drafting Johnston shows the Chargers considered it a priority to unlock the downfield part of Herbert's game. Since Johnston runs different routes than Allen and Williams it should also mean the three can coexist as fantasy assets. Johnston isn't eligible for the kind of target rates Allen and Williams are likely to draw, but as the Chargers' main home run threat it's possible that he makes up for the target deficit by providing a better yards-per-target and touchdown rate.
- Round 8, Pick 152 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 106 - 2022 Rank: 213
There's always concern about sustainability when a running back flashes in a small sample. But Allgeier definitely made the most of his opportunities as a rookie last year. The fifth-round pick averaged 4.9 yards per carry while ranking in the 92nd percentile for broken-tackle rate and 87th percentile for yards after contact. The 220-pound back had six runs of at least 20 yards (with three of those going over 40 yards) on 210 total carries. And his role increased as the season wound down. His four highest-usage games came in the last four weeks of the year, and he averaged 5.5 yards per carry in that stretch. Only one of those games came against a bad run defense, and he also caught six of seven targets for 52 yards during that span. Despite the impressive rookie year, Atlanta drafted RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall in April, leaving Allgeier without much of a fantasy ceiling unless his new teammates miss time.
- Round 9, Pick 169 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 133 - 2022 Rank: 1514
Bigsby was selected in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Jaguars after posting 2,903 yards and 25 touchdowns on 540 carries (5.4 YPC) in 35 games over the past three years at Auburn. The 6-foot, 210-pound Bigsby reportedly impressed as both a rusher and pass catcher at OTAs, further entrenching his standing as the top backup to Travis Etienne. While Etienne was a big play machine in his first NFL season last year, he struggled to churn out consistent gains at times, so Bigsby has a direct path to a prominent role in clock-killing situations, which could be plentiful if the Jaguars play up to their billing as favorites in the AFC South. Bigsby will need to hold off RBs D'Ernest Johnson, JaMycal Hasty, Snoop Conner, and Qadree Ollison in camp and preseason, but the rookie is the clear favorite to open his NFL career as the No. 2 option behind Etienne, if not the 1B in a platoon.
- Round 10, Pick 192 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 288 - 2022 Rank: 67
After being a roughly average kicker through his first eight years in the NFL, Gano made some adjustments and has been one of the league's most accurate and reliable legs since 2017. His fantasy value has wavered along with the efficiency of the offenses supporting him, but Brian Daboll turned the Giants into a solid unit last season, and the New York offense could take another step forward in 2023 if quarterback Daniel Jones continues his development and takes advantage of an improved collection of receiving options. Gano has seen either 32 or 33 field-goal attempts in each of his three seasons with the team, but there are reasons to believe his opportunities will increase this year.
- Round 11, Pick 209 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1116 - 2022 Rank: 195
Baker doesn't have the gaudy tackle total of some of his fellow inside linebackers, but he's turned in reliable production across all five seasons of his career. He's notched no fewer than 79 stops - that mark came in his rookie season - and has three 100-tackle campaigns on his ledger. Unlike most other inside linebackers, he also has pass-rush upside, tallying at least four sacks in each of the last three years. Baker has also proven reliable in coverage, breaking up four passes in three different seasons. Baker could find more room to make plays in 2023 as the new defensive coordinator introduces his system and playmaker Bradley Chubb gets fully integrated into the defensive scheme.
- Round 12, Pick 232 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 186 - 2022 Rank: 1292
After being selected in the fifth round of the 2023 draft, Chandler handled just six carries as the third-string running back. With Dalvin Cook no longer on the team, Chandler could be in line to take on an increased role behind Alexander Mattison. However, Chandler could have competition from Myles Gaskin and Kene Nwangwu. It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that Chandler pushes Mattison for work, after Mattison failed to surpass 3.7 yards per carry both of the last two seasons.
- Round 13, Pick 249 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 230 - 2022 Rank: 120
Sometimes, an offense can be too good, at least when it comes to providing value for its kicker. Elliott led the league in PATs in 2022, but he saw only 23 field-goal attempts as the Eagles' efficiency in the red zone and aggressiveness in going for the big play helped carry the team to the Super Bowl, but didn't leave it settling for three points often. There's little reason to think Elliott's opportunities will increase significantly this season. Philadelphia's scheme and main skill players, including quarterback Jalen Hurts, are unchanged, and coach Nick Siranni will keep calling Hurts' numbers at the goal line until defenses prove they can stop him. Elliott has a decent fantasy floor due to all those PATs, but his upside is lacking.
- Round 14, Pick 272 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 214 - 2022 Rank: 1359
- Round 15, Pick 289 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 143 - 2022 Rank: 611
Kelley held off 2022 rookie fourth-round pick Isaiah Spiller throughout last year, but Kelley was once again a non-factor from scrimmage (4.2 yards per carry, 4.0 yards per target). That makes three years in a row where Kelley was non-viable with his snaps, so you can see why the Chargers signed retread Sony Michel last year to split snaps with Kelley behind Ekeler. Michel is no longer on the team, but Spiller is a year older now and might be better prepared to compete with Kelley for playing time in 2023. Kelley needs to produce better to hold off Spiller for a second year. It's worth remembering that Spiller was regarded more highly as a prospect out of Texas A&M than Kelley was out of UCLA. The Chargers also have enough cap room to add a veteran runner behind Ekeler if they're not pleased with the progress of Kelley and/or Spiller.
- Round 16, Pick 312 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1301 - 2022 Rank: 220
- Round 17, Pick 329 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1293 - 2022 Rank: 171
- Round 18, Pick 352 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 206 - 2022 Rank: 306
Only seven tight ends have recorded at least 550 yards in each of the past two seasons, and Conklin quietly counts himself among that mark. In similarly under-the-radar fashion, he finished second on the Jets in targets (87), catches (58), receiving yards (552) and TDs (three) last year, behind Garrett Wilson in each category. New York's new-look offense brings a more crowded receiving corps to join Aaron Rodgers, as Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman both resemble new competition for targets, but this is also a passing game that looks primed to take a significant step forward as a whole. Conklin remains likely to operate as the team's No. 1 tight end, ahead of C.J. Uzomah and 2022 third-round pick Jeremy Ruckert. It remains to be seen whether that role can lead to an uptick in receiving utility.
- Round 19, Pick 369 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1890 - 2022 Rank: 482
While Westbrook-Ikhine has topped 650 offensive snaps in each of the last two seasons, he failed to reach 500 yards in either campaign. Tennessee's lack of established WRs should allow Westbrook-Ikhine to once again command plenty of playing time in his fourth NFL season. However, his inability to create separation and the run-first nature of the Titans' offense will likely continue to limit Westbrook-Ikhine's production. He had a 119-yard, two-touchdown outburst against Denver in Week 10 last season, but Westbrook-Ikhine scored just one TD in the other 16 games and exceeded 50 yards on only two other occasions. DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks and TE Chigoziem Okonkwo figure to lead the Titans in targets, with Westbrook-Ikhine battling second-year pro Kyle Philips and offseason addition Chris Moore for whatever is left.
- Round 20, Pick 392 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1360 - 2022 Rank: 377
- Round 21, Pick 409 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1141 - 2022 Rank: 326
- Round 22, Pick 432 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1226 - 2022 Rank: 218
- Round 23, Pick 449 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 562 - 2022 Rank: 685
- Round 24, Pick 472 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 586 - 2022 Rank: 260
- Round 25, Pick 489 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1920 - 2022 Rank: 494
- Round 26, Pick 512 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1781 - 2022 Rank: 240
- Round 27, Pick 529 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 323 - 2022 Rank: 271
Darnold definitely has talent. There is always the possibility that he has a big game or two. But it's just as likely that the bottom falls out on him. The six games he played for the Panthers last year were indicative of his career. He had three games in which he scored 13-18 fantasy points, which is not desirable. Darnold had a pair of consecutive high-end games with 24 and 31 fantasy points. But right after those performances, he imploded with a 5.4-point effort. And that's the problem. By the time a fantasy manager sees enough good to trust him, the terrible game is often right around the corner. However, he could have new life in San Francisco. There are few better situations for a quarterback than with the 49ers. Receivers are schemed open quickly. And the team has four players who are dynamic after the catch. If Brock Purdy's elbow is an issue in August, Darnold could be a very useful fantasy option if he gets to start games.
- Round 28, Pick 552 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1446 - 2022 Rank: 508
- Round 29, Pick 569 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1668 - 2022 Rank: 338
- Round 30, Pick 592 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 321 - 2022 Rank: 701
Dallas has struggled to get on the field during his three years in Seattle, receiving 51-54 touches each season. While his rushing average increased each season -- he finished with 5.3 YPC last year -- he was fairly ordinary last season with a 39th percentile broken tackle rate. Heading into the final year of his rookie deal, Dallas likely will have a limited role. Kenneth Walker returns as the starter and the team drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round this spring. But Travis Homer left and seventh-round pick Kenny McIntosh is his only serious competition for the No. 3 role.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
