In the SMALL TOWN AMERICA II fantasy draft, the Black Unicorns showed their horned dominance by earning an impressive A+ draft grade. With a projected record of 13-1-0 and a projected finish in 1st place, it seems like the other teams will be chasing rainbows while the Unicorns bask in the glory of their draft success. Their projected points of 2055.97 are sure to leave their opponents feeling like they've been enchanted by a magical spell.
While the Black Unicorns may have been the 5th team to pick in the draft order, they proved that being fashionably late can still lead to draft greatness. With 30 rounds to work their magic, they made the best pick of the draft by selecting Bryce Young at 156, a steal considering his ADP of 123. However, not every pick was as enchanting, as they made their worst pick at 45 with Tyler Lockett, who had an ADP of 57. Despite this minor hiccup, the Unicorns managed to corral four players from the same team, showing that they're not afraid to bet on team chemistry. With their strong draft performance, the Black Unicorns are poised to trample their way to victory and leave their opponents in a state of awe and wonder.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 5 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1 - 2022 Rank: 16
After a pair of injury-marred seasons, McCaffrey played the entire season and looked as dominant as he had in prior seasons. His 4.7 yards per carry was his best since 2019. Although he didn't have some of the crazy yardage totals from earlier in his career, he posted 1,210 scrimmage yards and 85 receptions while scoring 10 times over 11 games with the 49ers after an in-season trade. When running the ball McCaffery had a solid 74th-percentile broken tackle rate, but he was able to turn that into 94th-percentile yardage after contact. He wasn't as lethal as a receiver, posting a 52nd-percentile yards after the catch rate. However, with another year in the Shanahan system, that certainly could change as the veteran back learns the nuances of the offense. Down the stretch McCaffrey was scoring a touchdown, posting 100 scrimmage yards and recording over 20 PPR points in almost every game. Now that he's in an offense in which defenses have to worry about a variety of players, McCaffrey still can be the top scoring fantasy running back without seeing 400 touches.
- Round 2, Pick 36 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 62 - 2022 Rank: 80
Kittle's receptions and yardage for 2022 were well below the numbers he put up in prior seasons. But the big difference last season was his nose for the end zone. After scoring 20 touchdowns over the first five seasons of his career, he scored 11 TD's last year. As usual, he was very volatile. He had seven games with single digit PPR points. He also went over 20 points on four occasions. When drafting Kittle, fantasy managers simply can't take him out of their lineup. When he appears to be in a slump, the magic happens. For instance, after three straight games with less than 40 yards receiving, he erupted for two straight two-TD, 90+ yard contests in week 15 and 16 and seven touchdowns over four weeks. Kittle should be drafted as the fourth or fifth tight end off the board in most drafts, and he should provide a strong. though erratic, return on investment.
- Round 3, Pick 45 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 57 - 2022 Rank: 58
Lockett has been one of the most consistent performers in the NFL over the last four years. During that time, he's posted between 1,033 and 1,175 yards. He's also scored between 8-10 touchdowns in five straight years. His targets have also been consistent, as he has seen between 107 and 117 in three of the last four years. Last year, he had an excellent weekly scoring floor. He posted at least 60 yards in 10 games. He's going into his age 31 season, so decline is likely on the horizon, but from what we've seen, he may likely have a gradual descent opposed to a complete loss of skills. Lockett will likely be a value in drafts like he was last year, and betting on his consistency over many years seems like a safe bet.
- Round 4, Pick 76 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 74 - 2022 Rank: 250
Starting his 2022 season in Week 7 after a suspension to start the year, Hopkins came out on fire the first few games. He then tailed off the rest of the way. Of course, the Cardinals did lose Kyler Murray in December to a knee injury, so the quarterback play was not good. However, Hopkins posted just a 14th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But with him seeing 10.6 targets per game, his production was always going to be solid. Aside from the suspension, he missed two games due to injury at the end of the season, on top of missing six games in 2021. Prior to those injuries, he only missed two games in his first eight seasons. Going into his age-31 season, we have to begin to wonder whether the durability issues have to do with him aging. The Titans are betting against it, as they signed Hopkins to a two-year contract in July after the Cardinals released him earlier in the offseason. The veteran wideout now joins an offense that's consistently prioritized the run under coach Mike Vrabel, but Hopkins at least won't have much competition for targets apart from 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks. The two wide receivers and RB Derrick Henry figure to account for a huge portion of Tennessee's offense.
- Round 5, Pick 85 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 99 - 2022 Rank: 215
Last season, Johnson set a standard for high-volume, low-efficiency receiving, catching 86 passes for 882 yards and nary a touchdown on 147 targets. Even on a team with poor quarterback play, such a performance raises concerns about his target workload moving forward. That's doubly true given that Pittsburgh's second- and third-most targeted players, WR George Pickens and TE Pat Freiermuth, both managed above-average numbers for pass-pass efficiency. Pickens and Freiermuth also happen to be younger than Johnson, both coming from the second round in recent drafts. On the other hand, Johnson is only two years removed from putting up 1,161 receiving yards and eight TDs -- albeit on 169 targets -- and he's still one of the better receivers in the league when it comes to lateral agility and elusiveness. The drawbacks, of course, are numerous, as he's struggled with drops and is neither big (5-10, 183) nor fast (4.53 40-yard dash) by NFL standards. Johnson is locked in for a starting job and lofty snap counts after the Steelers settled for a post-prime Allen Robinson as their "big" offseason addition to the WR room, but there's major risk of a step back when it comes to target volume. The efficiency almost has to improve, especially if the Pittsburgh offense takes a step forward in QB Kenny Pickett's second pro season.
- Round 6, Pick 116 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 48 - 2022 Rank: 1492
Flowers was chosen as the third pick among four consecutive WRs taken in the first round during this April's draft. He was selected one pick ahead of Jordan Addison and went right after Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quentin Johnston. During his four years in college, Flowers played in subpar-to-mediocre offenses at BC, where he finished strong as a senior with 78 catches, 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns. In total, he accumulated 3,056 yards and 29 touchdowns throughout his college career. The 5-foot-9 wideout showcased his athleticism at the combine with a 4.42 40, 127-inch broad jump and a 35.5-inch vertical. The downside is that he's small, even for a speed merchant, and is the oldest of the four WRs drafted in Round 1 this April (23 in September). Furthermore, Flowers faces stiff competition for targets in Baltimore, where Rashod Bateman is returning from a foot injury, Odell Beckham signed an $15 million contract and TE Mark Andrews remaining a threat to lead the team in any and all receiving stats. Even with the addition of new OC Todd Monken, the Ravens offense is unlikely to rank among the league leaders in pass attempts, in part because QB Lamar Jackson is such a scrambling threat. There's also some risk of Flowers primarily playing the slot and thus being left off the field in two-wide formations in favor of Beckham, Bateman and possibly even Nelson Agholor.
- Round 7, Pick 125 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 131 - 2022 Rank: 449
Harris stays in the division after departing New England, inking a one-year deal with the Bills which sets him up as a key member of Buffalo's backfield. A thigh injury limited Harris to 11 games last season, but he remained efficient with 4.4 YPC. Durability is something of a concern, though, as Harris has combated lingering hamstring issues in back-to-back seasons. His lack of prowess as a pass catcher leaves clear room for James Cook to work in, almost certainly setting up the Bills for a committee backfield wherein quarterback Josh Allen is arguably still the top option. Harris is Buffalo's best RB option in goal-line and short-yardage scenarios, but Allen is a threat to siphon a substantial amount of those opportunities as well. The plus side for Harris' outlook is that the Bills project to find themselves in clock-killing situations more often than almost any team in the league, and Harris should be the clear go-to guy in those instances.
- Round 8, Pick 156 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 238 - 2022 Rank: 1489
The good news is that Young will have an impressive pair of tackles (Ikem Okwonu and Taylor Moton) protecting him during his rookie season, which should ensure he's not overwhelmed by pressure. The bad news is that the rest of the team surrounding this year's No. 1 overall pick appears considerably less talented. The Panthers traded away top receiver DJ Moore as part of the deal to acquire Young, revamping their receiving corps with veterans Adam Thielen, DJ Chark and Hayden Hurst -- none of whom came anywhere close to 1,000 yards last season. There is at least some upside for the receiving corps in the form of rookie second-round pick Jonathan Mingo and third-year WR Terrace Marshall, though neither is a sure thing or even assured of a starting job. Young, of course, comes with question marks of his own despite being a first overall pick who put up massive numbers at Alabama. He's only 5-10, and lacks the speed of fellow undersized No. 1 pick Kyler Murray. While his accuracy and anticipation may be enough to overcome that in the long run, Young isn't likely to put up huge numbers as a rookie given that he's not a prolific rusher and isn't in a great situation for efficient passing in the first year of head coach Frank Reich's tenure in Carolina. A realistic hope is for the rookie to have value in superflex and two-QB formats, perhaps entering the streaming conversation in single-QB leagues once byes kick in later in the season.
- Round 9, Pick 165 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1207 - 2022 Rank: 99
Luvu entered the 2022 season known almost exclusively for his work on special teams. He had never totaled more than 43 tackles in any of his first four pro campaigns, but he enjoyed a breakout season with increased opportunity. Despite missing two games, he registered 111 stops to go with seven sacks - both marks were second on the Panthers - and four passes defended. Those numbers are impressive on their own, but he also displayed big-play ability by forcing a fumble and returning his only interception for a score. Looking forward, Luvu faces a transition to new coordinator Ejiro Evero's 3-4 scheme, but he is slated to start alongside Shaq Thompson at inside linebacker. Whether he can reproduce last year's success remains to be seen, but Luvu's stock nonetheless has never been higher.
- Round 10, Pick 196 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1151 - 2022 Rank: 210
The Bills spent the 16th overall pick on Edmunds in the 2018 draft, and he delivered five seasons of more than 100 tackles. In need of an overhaul at linebacker, the Bears signed Edmunds to a four-year, $72 million contract this offseason. He'll be relied upon as a centerpiece of the rebuilt Bears defense, and the only potential thing that would hold him back from that is his ability to stay on the field. Though he hasn't suffered any major injuries, Edmunds has played in every game in a season only once in his career. Even so, he's a safe bet to pile up a boatload of tackles, his primary appeal for IDP formats. While he's never tallied more than two sacks in a campaign, Edmunds has enough athleticism to be strong in coverage and he's managed at least seven pass breakups in three separate campaigns.
- Round 11, Pick 205 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 536 - 2022 Rank: 138
- Round 12, Pick 236 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 299
When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.
- Round 13, Pick 245 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1202 - 2022 Rank: 127
David signed a modest one-year, $1.1 million contract this offseason to remain with the Buccaneers for a 12th NFL campaign. Despite his relatively advanced age and heavy workload during his career, David managed 123 tackles last year -- his most since 2019. He also played more than 1,000 snaps for the third time in the last four seasons, an impeccable record of consistency and availability. It's possible that we see his role shift in 2023, however. Tampa Bay spent a fifth-round pick on SirVocea Dennis, whose instincts make him an ideal player to apprentice with the veteran linebacker. If the team elects to begin the transition this year - a possibility considering the likelihood that the Buccaneers aren't competing for the playoffs -- David's volume would suffer even if his per-play efficiency remains consistent.
- Round 14, Pick 276 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 87 - 2022 Rank: 209
Akers had a weird 2022 season. We'll never know if he was still recovering from the Achilles injury he suffered in 2021. In Weeks 1-10, he averaged 2.83 yards per carry and was benched for two games. Although he faced four of the top 10 defenses in those seven games, he looked as if he was struggling to get to the line of scrimmage before getting hit on most carries. After his banishment, he continued to struggle, as he played 21 snaps but ran for just 2.72 yards per carry. However, he was a completely different player during the last eight games of the season. He rushed for 4.8 yards per carry, though he did that against an easy schedule. He was specifically excellent in Weeks 15 through 18 when he faced defenses in the bottom 10 in three of the four games. He had at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of those games along with a three-touchdown performance. and during that stretch, he averaged 5.47 yards per carry while also catching nine passes. So the big question becomes whether his resurgence had to do with schedule or recovering from his injury. It's likely that the answer is somewhere in the middle. ranking him around RB20 seems safe, as he should get volume, though we're unsure as to what level he'll play at. If it was just a matter of Akers getting back to full health, he will be one of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts, but there is definitely a risk.
- Round 15, Pick 285 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 19 - 2022 Rank: 111
After missing his entire rookie season due to a Lisfranc injury, Etienne looked healthy and explosive in his return to action in 2022. Trevor Lawrence's Clemson teammate and fellow 2021 first-round pick averaged 5.1 yards per carry and posted 1,441 scrimmage yards while finding the end zone five times last season. Etienne still has room for improvement when it comes to focus and consistency. He had five fumbles and three drops last year while struggling to churn out reliable small gains to keep the Jaguars ahead of the chains in between his big runs. Etienne heads into 2023 as the clear lead option in Jacksonville's backfield, but if Etienne doesn't fix his weaknesses, that could open the door for 2023 third-round pick Tank Bigsby to cut into his workload. Bigsby might get the nod in goal-line situations, when fumbles are most costly. If Jacksonville can take another step forward after winning the weak AFC South with a 9-8 record, the Jags could find themselves playing with a lead more in 2023, providing Etienne with more rushing opportunities.
- Round 16, Pick 316 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 273 - 2022 Rank: 136
Lutz averaged nearly 30 made field goals during his first four years with the Saints. Unfortunately, the team's offense regressed the last two years. As a result, Lutz converted just 23 field goals in each of those seasons. In addition, he posted his two worst seasons in terms of field-goal accuracy. Now Lutz gets a chance to redeem himself with a new team after the Saints traded him to Denver, where he'll be reunited with coach Sean Payton.
- Round 17, Pick 325 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1324 - 2022 Rank: 287
Perryman signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Texans during the offseason - his third time in nine professional seasons. Houston is a particularly intriguing landing spot, as he'll pair with defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans. Perryman has maintained excellent per-game production consistently, though his overall numbers are underwhelming due to injury. He's played 15 games only once in his career and has played 12 or fewer contests in half of his campaigns. Perryman's 2022 season was cut short by a labrum injury that required surgery, but he participated in offseason activities and should take on as much of a workload in 2023 as his body can handle.
- Round 18, Pick 356 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 316 - 2022 Rank: 193
Since the Bears drafted Justin Fields in 2021, Santos has averaged fewer than six points per game. Despite his low fantasy production, he connected on 90.6 percent of his field-goal attempts, which has made him one of the most-accurate kickers in the league. For those who believe the Bears offense is on the verge of a breakout, Santos is defensible as a top-12 fantasy option. However, if the offense remains a work in progress, Santos will lack consistent fantasy value.
- Round 19, Pick 365 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1310 - 2022 Rank: 153
- Round 20, Pick 396 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 545 - 2022 Rank: 939
- Round 21, Pick 405 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 387 - 2022 Rank: 325
- Round 22, Pick 436 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 395 - 2022 Rank: 294
- Round 23, Pick 445 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1938 - 2022 Rank: 445
It appeared that Hooper might take up a three-down starting role for the Raiders after they traded Darren Waller to the Giants, as Hooper had rehabilitated his market a bit with a solid showing in Tennessee last year after a disastrous run with the Browns. Hooper was a free agent bust for the Browns, no doubt, but it was hard to believe he was truly one of the worst tight ends in the league, which his numbers with Cleveland would otherwise imply. Hooper's work with Tennessee was more encouraging, and it raised the possibility that he was written off a little too soon. It was a bit of tough luck for Hooper, then, that rookie Notre Dame product Michael Mayer fell to the Raiders in the second round. Tight ends are notorious for struggling as rookies, and Hooper could hold off Mayer for a year, but that's far from guaranteed. Mayer was a fast starter at Notre Dame and by all accounts is an uncommon natural at tight end.
- Round 24, Pick 476 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1288 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 25, Pick 485 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 310 - 2022 Rank: 339
Raymond has had a significant role with the Lions the last two years, averaging 47.5 receptions and 596 yards. He didn't find the end zone in 2021 but scored four times last year. He's best used as a rotational player, but when he gets extended playing time, Raymond has been productive. His best stretch was in Weeks 7 and 8 when he had 75- and 76-yard performances. But he also had a solid end of the season in which he posted 40-66 yards in each of his last four games. He could at least have early season value while Jameson Williams serves a six-game suspension. He'll need to beat out Marvin Jones and Josh Reynolds to see heavy snaps in those games.
- Round 26, Pick 516 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 287 - 2022 Rank: 538
Following Aaron Rodgers, Cobb joined the Jets, where he is expected to secure the team's No. 4 receiver position after the abrupt retirement of Corey Davis in August. Cobb played a part-time role for the Packers in recent seasons and likely will do so with the Jets. While his abilities in precise route running and chemistry with Rodgers may prove useful in converting key third downs, Cobb's age, 33, and his reduced ability to generate yards after the catch, pose a challenge. Since 2019, Cobb has not had more than 40 catches or 500 yards in a season.
- Round 27, Pick 525 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1149 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 28, Pick 556 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 531 - 2022 Rank: 1117
- Round 29, Pick 565 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2071 - 2022 Rank: 1639
- Round 30, Pick 596 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2413 - 2022 Rank: 1571
A seventh-round pick this spring, McIntosh rose to the top of Georgia RB depth chart last season, rushing for 829 yards and 10 scores on 150 carries and catching 43 passes for 504 yards and two touchdowns. His receiving skills could get him on the field for the Seahawks this season. Kenneth Walker and second-round pick Zach Charbonnet are the top options, but the team did not re-sign Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas is more of a kick-return asset at this point than anything, and McIntosh could make a push for the No. 3 job.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
