In the SMALL TOWN AMERICA II fantasy draft, Blood Sweat & Beers had the unfortunate luck of landing the 6th pick. With 30 rounds to work with, they managed to put together a team that left the experts scratching their heads and reaching for a cold one. Their draft grade of D reflects the questionable choices made throughout the night. Projected to finish 15th with a dismal 4-10-0 record, it seems like this team will be drowning their sorrows in beer rather than celebrating victories.
One bright spot for Blood Sweat & Beers was their best pick of the night, snagging Zay Jones at 195, well below his ADP of 130. It's a glimmer of hope in an otherwise bleak draft. On the other hand, their worst pick of the night was Brock Purdy, taken at 86 when his ADP was 126. It seems like they were reaching for a player who may not deliver the expected results. Adding to the confusion, Blood Sweat & Beers decided to stack their team with three players from the same team: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Eric Kendricks. While this strategy can pay off, it also puts all their eggs in one basket, which may not be the wisest move for a team with already low expectations. Looks like Blood Sweat & Beers will have to rely on more than just their team name to quench their thirst for victory.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 6 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 13 - 2022 Rank: 14
There are very few players in NFL history who compare to Ekeler, and aside from maybe Jahmyr Gibbs, none are in the league today. Among active players Ekeler is one of a kind, and the Chargers offense would be in a lot of trouble without him. Ekeler has reached volume/efficiency thresholds as a pass catcher otherwise only matched historically by Marshall Faulk, so when a pass catcher that productive adds 25 rushing touchdowns over two years it's unsurprising that Ekeler is now a consensus first-round fantasy pick. Ekeler is too small to hold up with a big rushing workload (that's why he's not Faulk), but his per-carry returns are excellent and his effectiveness as a runner should never be questioned. As much as Ekeler might be vulnerable to rushing touchdown regression, it won't occur on the basis of ability - if the touchdown carries are there for the taking, Ekeler is still a great bet to claim them. After a brief contract standoff earlier in the offseason, Ekeler raised the white flag and clarified that he will report for training camp.
- Round 2, Pick 35 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 33 - 2022 Rank: 203
Decline will come for Allen some day, and perhaps as soon as the 2023 season. There were no signs in 2022, though. The early-season hamstring injury was a major frustration, but upon his return Allen pretty much torched in the final eight weeks. Allen finished the year with 66 catches for 752 yards on 89 targets and 505 snaps - an extremely high target rate and with exceptional efficiency. To draw that many targets per snap and still provide a catch rate of 74.2 percent at 8.5 yards per target is dominance, and not the kind of thing declining players are known for. Age-related decline can be harsh and sudden, so it's an understandable concern with Allen now 31 years old, but his recent play was some of the best of his career. The Chargers will remain a pass-happy offense in 2023 and there's even some hope of improvement with new coordinator Kellen Moore replacing the disappointing Joe Lombardi. Based on all material evidence, Allen should once again be a good bet for 100-plus catches.
- Round 3, Pick 46 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 39 - 2022 Rank: 75
Aiyuk Is an excellent NFL receiver. He runs great routes, and he navigates traffic extremely well. He also had a solid 66th-percentile yards after the catch rate. Although he had the best season of his career with 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns, he was inconsistent. The main reason is that the 49ers often lean on their rushing attack, and they also have a number of weapons who they can choose to feature as receivers in any game. The problem for Aiyuk is that he can get ignored depending on the game script. He had 10 games in which he was targeted fewer than six times. That also led to him scoring fewer than 10 PPR points on eight occasions. He did have some upside by scoring at least 20 PPR points three times, but you get the picture. At the end of the season, good numbers will likely be there, but the path won't always be fun.
- Round 4, Pick 75 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 119 - 2022 Rank: 158
Taken in the third round out of Memphis in 2020, Gibson found himself falling out of favor with former offensive coordinator Scott Turner last year and was reduced to primarily a passing-down role despite having rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2021. While he's an outstanding athlete with great speed and good receiving skills, Gibson's instincts as a runner have never really developed, and he lost early-down touches to rookie Brian Robinson. Robinson was unimpressive though, and Turner was replaced by former Kansas City coordinator Eric Bieniemy in the offseason. While Gibson's profile more closely resembles the kind of backs who thrived in the scheme Bieniemy brings with him, 2023 sixth-round pick Chris Rodriguez is also a legitimate threat to claim the starting job, which would once again relegate Gibson to passing-down and change-of-pace work.
- Round 5, Pick 86 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 125 - 2022 Rank: 125
After undergoing UCL (elbow) surgery on March 10th, it's hard to know what we can expect from Purdy this season. Was he just a poster child for any quarterback being placed in the Kyle Shanahan system? Or was he truly a special quarterback who was completely unnoticed until the very last pick of the NFL draft? He won each of the eight games he started before his injury, including two NFL playoff games. However, he threw for 220 or fewer yards in five of eight games. The best game he had was in the Wild Card round against Seattle when he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns. He did throw for at least two touchdowns in each of his first seven starts. He also had an impressive 67.1 percent completion percentage along with a 13:4 TD: INT. If he does get the starting job and is healthy, there's little reason to expect he'll be any less effective than he was last year. Even if film comes out on him that exposes flaws, the offense he's in creates optimal passing windows, and he has incredibly talented weapons at his disposal. But the injury he suffered is significant and it's also possible that he is not 100% to start the season.
- Round 6, Pick 115 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 141 - 2022 Rank: 403
Okonkwo was brought along slowly for the first half of his rookie season, but the 2022 fourth-round pick out of Maryland flourished down the stretch. He caught at least three passes in six of Tennessee's final seven games, racking up 24 catches for 278 yards and two touchdowns over that span. Veteran WR Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, who worked ahead of Okonkwo at TE for most of last season, both left in free agency. Okonkwo and fellow 2022 draft pick Treylon Burks are thus set to take on expanded roles in the Tennessee passing game alongside offseason signing DeAndre Hopkins. Okonkwo's undersized at 6-foot-2 and 244 pounds, but if he blocks well enough to earn an every-down role in the Titans' run-first offense, the tight end should continue to cause mismatches for defenses with his 4.52 speed, which was the best among all tight ends in his draft class. Tennessee didn't bring in a veteran replacement for Hooper, settling for 2023 fifth-round pick Josh Whyle, so Okonkwo should get every opportunity to expand his role in 2023 after playing more than half of the team's offensive snaps only twice in 2022.
- Round 7, Pick 126 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 122 - 2022 Rank: 168
Smith-Schuster technically operated as the Chiefs' top wide receiver during last season's Super Bowl run, putting up a 78-833-3 line in the regular season. In reality, though, he served as a true No. 2 receiving option behind tight end Travis Kelce. The Patriots saw fit to seemingly swap out Jakobi Meyers for Smith-Schuster, presumably setting up to handle a similar big-slot role, which does bode well, but production may be harder to come from while catching passes from Mac Jones instead of Patrick Mahomes. The acquisition of Mike Gesicki to pair with Hunter Henry could also forebode the Patriots running more two-TE sets, in which case an outside WR would likely share the field rather than a slot man. Still, Smith-Schuster's three-year, $25.5 million deal with $16 million guaranteed at signing is a nice guarantee of his involvement as a key pillar on offense. His base salaries for 2023 and 2024 are guaranteed, so he figures to remain in New England for at minimum a two-year stint.
- Round 8, Pick 155 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 161 - 2022 Rank: 898
Howell made only one start last year as a rookie, and that came in Week 18, but the North Carolina product appears poised to begin 2023 as the starting quarterback for Washington. The team cleared the way for the 2022 fifth-round pick to take over by releasing Carson Wentz and letting Taylor Heinicke walk in free agency. Howell has the arm talent to succeed in the NFL, but he lacks game-changing mobility and has to prove he can diagnose coverage quickly enough to take full advantage of a solid group of wideouts led by Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. The Commanders brought in Eric Bieniemy to run the offense, and the former Kansas City offensive coordinator will likely focus on setting Howell up for quick strikes rather than leave him hanging in the pocket behind what was one of the league's poorer offensive lines in 2022. If Howell stumbles badly, veteran Jacoby Brissett is a capable backup, but the younger QB will get every chance to show he can solve the franchise's long-running woes at the position.
- Round 9, Pick 166 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1248 - 2022 Rank: 101
Kendricks has established himself as one of the premier inside linebackers across his prolific eight-year career. He can safely be penciled in for 100 tackles, as he even managed 107 stops across 11 games in an injury-plagued 2021 campaign. In addition to his run-stuffing abilities, Kendricks is also excellent in coverage, as he's managed at least six passes defended in all but two seasons. His work as a pass rusher is a bit more inconsistent, though he did rack up five sacks as recently as 2021. The one thing that has changed for the first time in his career is Kendricks' team, as he left Minnesota to join the Chargers in the offseason. That should mean little in terms of a change in role, as the team committed $13.3 million to him across the next two seasons. Despite the shift in scenery, expect more of the same from Kendricks in 2023.
- Round 10, Pick 195 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 108 - 2022 Rank: 130
Jones is coming off a breakout season in which he set career highs in targets (121), catches (82) and receiving yards (823). He also had five touchdowns, which was the 28-year-old's second most behind his seven TDs with Buffalo in 2018. After being used deeper downfield by the Bills and Raiders, Jones' increased success coincided with a change in role after joining Jacksonville. His average depth of target dropped from 14.0 yards with the Raiders in 2021 to 8.6 with the Jaguars in 2022, as Trevor Lawrence peppered Jones with targets underneath and set the wide receiver up to do damage after the catch. Jones should play a similar role in 2023, though matching last season's volume will be difficult, as Jacksonville added WR Calvin Ridley while retaining WR Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram, who soaked up 133 and 98 targets in 2022. If Jones can cut down on his drops -- he led the league with 13 last season - and improve on last year's lackluster 6.8 yards per target, he could replicate last year's production despite the expected dip in volume.
- Round 11, Pick 206 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 234 - 2022 Rank: 1175
Some had hoped White would compete with Josh Jacobs and perhaps even win the starting Raiders running back role as a rookie, but that of course was a bit hasty. Jacobs is a very good three-down back, whereas White even in theory was more of a rushing specialist, ideally one who plays off the bench. White has real speed to work with and runs with a hot motor, so his tenacity combined with adequate wheels should make him a useful runner in the NFL, just as he was at Georgia when he started over James Cook and Kenny McIntosh. White couldn't earn playing time as a rookie is somewhat disappointing, but it was never a fair expectation that he compete immediately with Jacobs as a rookie fourth-round pick. If Jacobs were to miss time then White would be a good bet to start for the Raiders, with passing-down specialist Ameer Abdullah likely still the main pass catcher. White had an injury history at Georgia, a predictable result of his intense running style at a relatively high build (6-feet, 214 pounds), so it should be understood that even if Jacobs were to miss time White would likely not see as many carries, or targets for workload limitation reasons.
- Round 12, Pick 235 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1117 - 2022 Rank: 651
Al-Shaair has had an impressive rise in his professional career, progressing from undrafted free agent to a key figure in the 49ers defense. Primarily a special teams contributor for the two seasons of his career, Al-Shaair emerged as an impressive per-game producer in both 2021 and 2022. The biggest issue for him has been his ability to stay on the field, as he's played only 25 games combined across the last two seasons. In that same span, he racked up a combined 146 tackles with two sacks, five passes defended, and two picks. Even when healthy, the 49ers used Al-Shaair in a rotational role due to their impressive defensive personnel. That isn't the case in Tennessee -- especially after the departure of David Long - so Al-Shaair should have the chance to further improve his production if he can stay on the field.
- Round 13, Pick 246 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1098 - 2022 Rank: 145
As could be expected for a first-round pick, Walker was immediately slotted into a starting role among the Packers' linebacker corps in 2022. He led the team in tackles - an impressive feat - despite tallying five or fewer stops in six contests. That was a sign of his immaturity as a player, as were the two games from which he was ejected for making contact with an opposing coach. While there are areas to smooth out, Walker also proved quickly why he was worthy of a first-round selection. In addition to his aforementioned run-stopping ability, Walker was also able to quickly translate his athleticism into effective coverage by breaking up seven passes. Assuming he can become more consistent in his decision-making and level of play, Walker has every opportunity to vault up these rankings and is a prime breakout candidate.
- Round 14, Pick 275 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1173 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 15, Pick 286 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 189 - 2022 Rank: 655
Smith is on track to become the Bengals' third starting tight end in as many seasons. In 2022, Hayden Hurst filled that role and caught 52 passes for 414 yards and two touchdowns on 68 targets in 13 games, after C.J. Uzomah caught 49 passes for 493 yards and five TDs on 63 targets in 2021. A 2019 second-round pick, Smith is getting an interesting second chance after signing a one-year, $1.75 million contract this offseason. His last two years in Minnesota were undone by knee surgery and a major ankle injury, with the Vikings opting to trade for fellow tight end T.J. Hockenson after Smith disappointed early last season and then went down with the high-ankle sprain. Now healthy, Smith turns 25 in August and will compete for snaps in a weak TE room that includes Drew Sample, a 2019 second-round pick who suffered a season-ending knee injury after two games last year.
- Round 16, Pick 315 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1162 - 2022 Rank: 201
White took several years to break out, though he progressively ramped up both his snap count and production with the Chargers until he broke out in 2021. He took a modest step back in terms of tackles in 2022 with the Eagles, but he still topped the century mark for the second consecutive campaign. One key skill he displayed in Philly was his work in coverage. After breaking up only 10 passes combined across his first four seasons in the league, he logged seven in 2022 alone. White signed a two-year deal with the Cardinals this offseason and will be a key figure in turning around a defense that struggled at nearly every level in 2022. As a result, he's a good bet to rack up tackles and perhaps some other peripheral stats once again in 2023.
- Round 17, Pick 326 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 301 - 2022 Rank: 1663
Ryland joins the Patriots as a fourth-round pick, replacing steady veteran Nick Folk. Ryland, a Maryland product, boasts a bigger leg than Folk, which could be a significant factor if New England can keep games close this season. The Patriots saw enough from the rookie during training camp to trade Folk away in late August, leaving Ryland unchallenged for Week 1 kicks.
- Round 18, Pick 355 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 200 - 2022 Rank: 212
Osborn came alive late last season, showing upside for a bigger role this season. After averaging 23 receiving yards per game in his first 13 games with three touchdowns, Osborn had games of 157 and 117 yards in the last four weeks, averaging 87.5 yards per game and scoring twice. But increased targets is far from guaranteed after the Vikings used a first-round pick on WR Jordan Addison this spring, and Osborn likely will remain in the No. 3 role, even though the team moved on from Adam Thielen. Plus, tight end T.J. Hockenson could get more work after joining the team midseason last year. At 5-foot-11, 203, with 4.48 speed, Osborn could produce if given the chance. But he'll likely need an injury to Justin Jefferson or Addison for that to happen.
- Round 19, Pick 366 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 269 - 2022 Rank: 143
Patterson has had the best two years of his 10-year career while with the Falcons. As good as he was running the football in 2021, he was even better in 2022. He went from 4.0 to 4.8 yards per carry and doubled his runs of more than 20 yards from two to four. He had an excellent 82nd-percentile broken-tackle rate and turned that into a 62nd-percentile yards after contact. But after handling 22 and 17 carries in Weeks 1 and 3 last season, he never had more than 14 carries thereafter. And he finished the season with 18 carries over his last three games. Also, his work as a receiver was drastically reduced. After catching 52 passes for 548 yards and five touchdowns in 2021, his targets fell from 69 to 31 and his yards per target were slashed by more than half from 7.9 to 3.9. It's difficult to imagine his role increasing as he heads into his age-33 season. With rookie Bijan Robinson the starter, it's hard to imagine Patterson will have a reliable role, unless it's at wide receiver.
- Round 20, Pick 395 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 574 - 2022 Rank: 520
- Round 21, Pick 406 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 35 - 2022 Rank: 907
A fifth-round pick last season, Williams broke his foot in preseason and then suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 1 that kept him sidelined until Week 10. When he returned he had an opportunity for touches but didn't show enough to earn a larger role. He had 30-plus snaps in Weeks 11 and 12 and totaled 104 yards on 22 touches, and once Cam Akers got hot down the stretch, Williams was hardly heard from again -- he played zero offensive snaps Week 18. Williams is undersized at 5-foot-9, 194, and not particularly athletic (4.65-second 40, 32-inch vertical and 116-inch broad jump). Nevertheless, he'll compete in camp to back up Akers with Sony Michel and fellow fringe prospects Zach Evans, Ronnie Rivers and Tiyon Evans.
- Round 22, Pick 435 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 325 - 2022 Rank: 1564
Evans, a former blue-chip recruit, performed consistently well at both TCU and Mississippi despite being just three picks away from dropping to the seventh round in this year's draft. Although he was overshadowed by Kendre Miller and Quinshon Judkins at TCU and Mississippi, respectively, there is no disgrace in being outplayed by two potential NFL standouts. Evans' statistics in rushing throughout his career were reliably efficient on a moderate volume. This should make him a competent off-the-bench running back at worst. His athletic testing was not outstanding, with his size-adjusted speed below that of a starter quality, as seen in his 4.51 pro day 40 at 5-foot-11, 208. This means that his potential as a good backup is limited. However, Evans is the Rams' best pure runner after Cam Akers, which means he has a chance at receiving some touches.
- Round 23, Pick 446 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 378 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 24, Pick 475 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 265 - 2022 Rank: 539
In 2022, Marshall started his second season on a low note but gradually became more involved, making 28 catches (out of 47 targets) for 490 yards and one touchdown in 14 games. This offseason, the Panthers traded their top wideout, DJ Moore, to the Bears. Even so, Marshall is far from assured of a starting job after the Panthers signed WRs Adam Thielen and DJ Chark and used a second-round pick on Jonathan Mingo. There is a chance Marshall emerges as one of the better options from that group, considering he's a recent second-round pick (2021) and still only 23 years old. Marshall and Chark might end up competing for the same snaps and targets, offering similar builds and skill sets, in addition to some coincidental similarities (both were second-round picks out of LSU). Thielen and Mingo, on the other hand, seem more likely to see passes in the short areas of the field.
- Round 25, Pick 486 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1188 - 2022 Rank: 677
- Round 26, Pick 515 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1252 - 2022 Rank: 1829
- Round 27, Pick 526 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 522 - 2022 Rank: 528
- Round 28, Pick 555 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 524 - 2022 Rank: 161
- Round 29, Pick 566 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 329 - 2022 Rank: 1127
With less than 100 touches in his three-year career, Vaughn has been used more on special teams than in the offense -- 383 special-teams snaps to 242 snaps from scrimmage. But he might have a better opportunity to carve out a more meaningful role this season. When Leonard Fournette was released, the No. 2 role behind Rachaad White became up for grabs. Tampa Bay signed Chase Edmonds, seemingly given the backfield a speedy option, but Vaughn will get a shot in training camp to earn touches in a change-of-pace role.
- Round 30, Pick 595 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 369 - 2022 Rank: 455
While Watkins is the No. 3 wide receiver on paper in a high-powered offense, his numbers in 2022 didn't reflect that role. Tight end Dallas Goedert is the actual third option for quarterback Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia's scheme, and even when Goedert was out of action last year, the Eagles showed they would rather keep the ball in Hurts' hands as a runner or feed it to A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith more often rather than dish it off to players with less big-play potential. Watkins is still viewed as dependable depth, but the 2020 sixth-round pick isn't ever likely to rise above that, and even his current target volume now faces a threat from former Falcons wideout Olamide Zaccheaus.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
