In the Rokhed NFL Dynasty draft, the Steelers found themselves in the 14th spot, hoping to make some magic happen. Unfortunately, their draft grade of D+ suggests that magic was in short supply. With a projected record of 4-10-0 and a projected finish of 15th, it seems the Steelers may have a tough road ahead. Their projected points of 1589.22 are nothing to write home about, and their schedule difficulty of 9th toughest out of 20 teams adds insult to injury. To make matters worse, they have 6 players on bye week 7, which could leave them scrambling for replacements.
While the Steelers did manage to make a few decent picks, such as D'Onta Foreman at 174 (ADP 129), their worst pick of Allen Lazard at 134 (ADP 127) leaves something to be desired. Additionally, the Steelers took a risk by drafting 3 players from the same team: Derek Carr, Rashid Shaheed, and Foster Moreau. Will this strategy pay off, or will it leave the Steelers with too many eggs in one basket? Only time will tell. One thing's for sure, though - the Steelers will need to step up their game if they want to live up to their name.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 14 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 117 - 2022 Rank: 38
Carr threw 24 or fewer TD passes in five of the last six years. He also has been held to fewer than 29 TD passes in nine of 10 seasons with a career high of 32 in 2015. It speaks volumes that the Raiders basically sent him home for the last three games of last season, eventually letting him walk with no real backup plan or compensation in return. Joey Bosa called it out a couple of years ago when he said that Carr folds under pressure. Last year, Carr had good blocking from his tackles, though the interior was a mess. Now with the Saints, he'll have solid RT play from Ryan Ramczyk. But unless the other linemen make jumps in previous effectiveness, this line will be a problem for Carr. Expect the Saints to hope their defense can keep them competitive. Also, look for a slow pace on offense with an emphasis on the running game when possible. The downfield passing could be a problem due to the OL, so Carr will need to have success in the short and intermediate areas. He'll likely be a borderline top-24 QB.
- Round 2, Pick 34 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 46 - 2022 Rank: 45
Barkley managed to stay mostly healthy last year for the first time since his rookie season, and the result was a career high in rushing yards. New head coach Brian Daboll made him the centerpiece of his offense in order to take some pressure off quarterback Daniel Jones, although Daboll may have had little choice given the state of the Giants' receiving corps. The new offensive scheme gave Barkley a career high in rushing attempts per game but didn't showcase his pass-catching skills, as he managed less than half the receiving yards he had in 2018 despite finishing fifth in the league among RBs in targets. While Barkley had an impressive rebound after some injury-plagued campaigns, question marks surround the running back headed into 2023. The veteran back presumably is not overjoyed with his new one year contract. In addition, a reinforced group of receivers and tight ends could encourage Daboll to lean more on Jones and the passing game. Barkley has the talent to put up elite numbers out of the backfield, but health and usage remain obstacles to the 26-year-old reaching his fantasy ceiling.
- Round 3, Pick 54 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 25 - 2022 Rank: 276
Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 last season just as he was emerging as a dominant workhorse RB, making the injury all the more frustrating. The 2022 second-round pick started slowly, with less than 50 rushing yards in his first three appearances, but the Jets finally shifted gears Week 4 and handed Hall the majority of backfield work. Hall hopes to return by Week 1, and New York's offense looks primed to take a significant step forward in 2023 with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. But the Jets likely will take their time with Hall, especially after signing Dalvin Cook in August. Cook could start Week 1, and even when Hall returns could still steal touches as the No. 2. That said, if Hall returns to his pre-injury form and Rodgers indeed boosts the offense this season, Hall could even see an uptick in scoring opportunities.
- Round 4, Pick 74 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 3 - 2022 Rank: 48
Hill's record of exceptional on-field play has been consistent enough that his first year in Miami may actually be flying under the radar. Wide receivers usually see a dip in production in their first year with a new team, but Hill's inaugural season with the Dolphins saw him rack up a career-high 1,710 receiving yards (11th most in NFL history) to go with eight total touchdowns. The speedster managed that feat despite enduring tumultuous injuries at the quarterback position, and catching passes from a third-stringer by the end of the season. Part of the credit needs to go to coach Mike McDaniel's outstanding offensive scheme, and to Tua Tagovailoa's play under center. But the ultimate takeaway is that Hill is a game-breaker still in his prime. In 17 games last season, Hill broke 100 yards on seven occasions and led the entire NFL with 3.20 yards per route run. He seems a likely candidate for positive touchdown regression, especially if Tagovailoa can put together an fully healthy season. With Jaylen Waddle present to keep defenses honest but no other target competition of real significance, Hill finds himself in the perfect situation to once again produce Top-5 wide receiver stats.
- Round 5, Pick 94 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 88 - 2022 Rank: 359
For a player with his physical gifts and consistent production, it's kind of remarkable that Cooks has never found a long-term home in the NFL. Since being selected in the first round in 2014, the speedster has played for four teams, and a March trade from the Texans has the Cowboys poised to be team No. 5. Through his travels, Cooks has topped 1,000 receiving yards six times in the last eight seasons, and the fact that he didn't reach that mark in Houston last year falls squarely on the shoulders of the erratic quarterback play. While he'll turn 30 in September, he still possesses the speed to force defenders back on their heels, and Dak Prescott should be the best QB he's worked with since he was Tom Brady's top option on the outside with the Patriots in 2017. CeeDee Lamb has that role in Dallas in 2023, but Cooks can still make an impact as the No. 2 wideout.
- Round 6, Pick 114 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 109 - 2022 Rank: 399
During his second NFL season last year, Freiermuth's involvement as a pass catcher increased significantly compared to his rookie campaign. However, he dipped from seven touchdowns in 2021 to only two in 2022, suffering from poor QB play and Pittsburgh's overall struggles in the red zone. It was otherwise a strong year, as the 2021 second-round pick set new highs with 63 catches, 732 yards, and 98 targets. Freiermuth tied for fourth among tight ends in overall targets but finished with only 13 red-zone targets, falling well short of the 20 he had in 2021. He has not yet caught a touchdown from Kenny Pickett. The Steelers added more focus on their offensive line during the offseason, settling for WR Allen Robinson and third-round rookie TE Darnell Washington as additions at the skill positions. While Freiermuth sprained the ACL and MCL in his left knee during Pittsburgh's season finale, he did not require surgery to recover and is expected to participate in training camp as usual. He figures to be one of the team's top three pass catchers, alongside WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.
- Round 7, Pick 134 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 156 - 2022 Rank: 234
Lazard joins quarterback Aaron Rodgers in moving from Green Bay to New York this season. Garrett Wilson is the clear No. 1 option for the passing game, and while no obvious No. 2 wideout stands out, Lazard has the likely inside track following the abrupt retirement of Corey Davis in August. Mecole Hardman will give him his biggest challenge with only Randall Cobb among the top-4 WR. Lazard is a uniquely superior blocker among the Jets' receiving corps, which should guarantee him a sizeable weekly snap share. His connection with Rodgers also shouldn't be overlooked as a mere narrative, as his 6-foot-5 frame and 14 touchdowns the last two seasons are proof that he's trusted by his QB in the red zone. Lazard's four-year, $44 million contract is also incentive to get him involved early and often.
- Round 8, Pick 154 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 162 - 2022 Rank: 759
A fourth-round pick out of Wisconsin in 2022, Ferguson didn't post big receiving numbers in college. As a rookie, though, he showed flashes of being more than just a depth option in the NFL when injuries to Dalton Schultz pushed him into a more prominent role. Schultz was allowed to leave in free agency, and while Ferguson moved to the top of the depth chart as a result, he will face real competition for that spot from 2023 second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker, as well as fellow second-year tight end Peyton Hendershot. Schoonmaker was viewed as the better prospect when he was drafted, although he did battle foot issues over the summer that may have cost him some key development time. Even if Ferguson wins the Week 1 starting job, all three tight ends could wind up splitting the receiving workload.
- Round 9, Pick 174 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 232 - 2022 Rank: 153
Foreman is one of the true success stories of a player making it back from an Achilles injury. Once Christian McCaffrey was traded away by the Panthers last year, Foreman stepped into a large role. His 203 carries was the first big workload he had in his career. And he responded very well by posting a career-high 4.5 yards per carry. Despite having just a 25th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was 76th percentile in yards after contact. But as good as some of his numbers looked, he was inconsistent. He had five games with at least 113 rushing yards. Conversely, he was held to fewer than 25 yards four times. And his performances weren't based on the level of competition. He had some excellent games against strong defenses while having some poor performances against weaker defenses. Now with Chicago, Foreman should bring the thunder to Khalil Herbert's lighting to form a one-two punch in the backfield. Foreman should profile as the primary goal-line back, though Justin Fields is sure to be a factor at the goal. Even though the Bears drafted Roschon Johnson in the fourth round, Foreman is likely a better RB at this stage, and Johnson may not be a major threat to Foreman's role. In his current situation, Foreman has RB2 or flex value in drafts.
- Round 10, Pick 194 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 130 - 2022 Rank: 452
Shaheed signed with the Saints in October last year and performed extremely well. Despite being targeted 34 times in 12 games, he posted 488 yards. His excellent speed helped him make four plays of at least 40 yards (and another two plays of at least 20 yards). At first, he was primarily a deep threat, running 40 percent of his snaps from the slot. But after the Week 14 bye, he went from averaging less than two targets per game to almost five targets in the last four games. He also was being used as a more versatile receiver down the stretch. His yards per target in each of the last three games was 10.3-13.2 Projecting Shaheed for 2023 isn't easy. He had the advantage of catching the league off guard. And then when his role changed a bit, he had another advantage. Also, with Derek Carr at QB and expected to play behind a poor pass-protecting OL, Shaheed may not be a huge downfield factor.
DEF - Round 11, Pick 214 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 245 - 2022 Rank: 27
Jacksonville was a better fantasy defense than real-life defense in 2022 by virtue of scoring four defensive touchdowns, which was third-most in the league. Otherwise, the Jaguars had 35 sacks (seventh-fewest) and allowed 353.3 scrimmage yards per game (ninth-most). This unit's largely returning its key personnel from last season, so the most obvious avenue for improvement is the potential evolution of 2022 first overall pick Travon Walker, who had just 3.5 sacks as a rookie. However, Jacksonville will likely face a far tougher schedule in 2023. Not only did the Jaguars win the AFC South last year after drafting first overall the previous two seasons, but two of the three other teams in their division (the Texans and Colts) could be much improved on offense after taking QBs with top-five draft picks.
- Round 12, Pick 234 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 394 - 2022 Rank: 105
The Texans haven't done much right in the past couple of seasons, but selecting Pitre in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft certainly appears to be one. The rookie out of Baylor excelled with 147 tackles and five interceptions, wildly exceeding expectations while topping the team in both categories. One thing to keep an eye on is Pitre's deployment moving forward. He opened the 2022 campaign at strong safety and appeared to be heading to a reserve role after a number of miscues. Instead, the team shifted him to free safety, where he seemingly found a groove and some comfort on the field. The Texans did a lot of work on defense during the offseason, but Pitre is expected to remain a starter alongside veteran Jimmie Ward. All told he'll be looking to prove his initial production in the NFL was no fluke.
- Round 13, Pick 254 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1160 - 2022 Rank: 109
- Round 14, Pick 274 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2343 - 2022 Rank: 549
Tonyan signed a one-year deal with the Bears and is expected to be the No. 2 tight end behind Cole Kmet. However, preseason reports indicate that Chicago will use more two tight end sets than they have in the past. As a result, Tonyan could be on the field for a majority of the snaps. Aside from the career year that Tonyan had in 2020 with Green Bay, when he caught 52 passes for 586 yards and 11 touchdowns, he averaged 213 yards and 1.5 touchdowns in his other four seasons. He should be a solid complement to Kmet, but Tonyan is likely to have an inconsistent role as a receiver. However, should Kmet miss time, Tonyan's fantasy value could take a significant jump.
- Round 15, Pick 294 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1184 - 2022 Rank: 122
Singleton has quickly gone from an undrafted free agent to a key cog in the Broncos' defense. The 2022 season marked his first with Denver, but he didn't miss a beat after moving on from the Eagles to rack up a career-high 163 tackles. It was his third campaign with at least 100 tackles. More specifically, Singleton recorded double-digit tackle totals in seven games last season, while also making at least 20 stops in two games. He signed a three-year deal worth up to $18 million with the Broncos in March, pushing him to the center of the team's defensive goals. It also means that Singleton is in a position to continue to make plays on a defense that could be one of the league's strongest units.
- Round 16, Pick 314 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1787 - 2022 Rank: 244
- Round 17, Pick 334 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1905 - 2022 Rank: -
Early in the offseason, it was reported that Moreau was battling Hodgkin's lymphoma. However, on July 3, everyone received tremendous news in hearing that he was in full remission. Moreau played his first four seasons with the Raiders, and he was the No. 2 TE to Darren Waller. Over the last two years, Waller missed time, and Moreau averaged 32 catches, 398 yards and 2.5 touchdowns. Now in New Orleans, he'll likely be more of a blocking tight end for the Saints while Juwan Johnson serves as the top receiving threat. New Orleans will likely play a significant number of snaps with two tight ends on the field, so Moreau should see targets as well. Nonetheless, it's likely he finishes outside of the top-24 tight ends unless Johnson misses time.
- Round 18, Pick 354 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 302 - 2022 Rank: 62
Over the course of the last four years spent in New England, the 38-year-old kicker, Folk, experienced what could arguably be considered the prime of his lengthy career. During this period, he was able to convert an impressive 89.3 percent of his field-goal attempts and 91.3 percent of PATs. Additionally, Folk exceeded expectations by hitting nine kicks from 50-plus yards in just two seasons, despite having never made more than three kicks from that range in a single year previously. Although his offensive teammates were not always up to par, Folk still managed to rank top-5 in total field-goals made in both years. Despite his achievements, the team did not seem too impressed and opted to use a fourth-round pick in 2023 on Maryland kicker, Chad Ryland, who possesses a stronger leg and may eventually take over Folk's role.
- Round 19, Pick 374 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 195 - 2022 Rank: 746
It's difficult to evaluate Ridder on the four games he started as a rookie to close out last season for the Falcons. They had a run-heavy offense with little interest in leaning on the pass and had already lost TE Kyle Pitts for the season by the time Ridder took over. Even though Pitts was having a disappointing year, his presence would've helped in an offense that otherwise had little beyond rookie WR Drake London. The good news is that Ridder took care of the football, finishing without any interceptions while attempting 26-to-33 passes in each game. On the other hand, he averaged better than 6.6 YPA just once and wasn't exactly taking a lot of risks or moving the offense consistently. And although the 2022 third-round pick was a running threat in college, he finished three of his four starts last year with fewer than 10 rushing yards. The Falcons apparently saw enough to make him their starter entering Week 1 this year, but they did sign a high-end backup in Taylor Heinicke in case things don't work out with the second-year pro.
- Round 20, Pick 394 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 2336 - 2022 Rank: -
Since going undrafted out of Virginia in 2019, Zaccheaus has improved his numbers every season while carving out a role in the Falcons' offense behind bigger-names targets like Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Drake London. That experience in making the most of his opportunities could serve him well in Philadelphia after he signed a modest one-year contract with the NFC champs in the offseason. The Eagles' passing game is dominated by A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, and the focus on utilizing Jalen Hurts' running ability limits the looks for any other receivers. Zaccheaus will compete for snaps and touches with Quez Watkins, who managed only 33 catches as the No. 3 wideout for the team last year.
- Round 21, Pick 414 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 262 - 2022 Rank: 493
When Reynolds was given volume last year, he was productive. The Lions needed to use him when they suffered injuries during Weeks 3 through 5. During those games he had 81-96 yards, six or seven catches and 8-10 targets. But in terms of his playing ability, he posted a 21st-percentile yards after the catch rate. It's likely that he'll be considered a depth role, and it seems improbable that he'll be a regular starter as he enters his age-28 season. He could win an early-season role over Kalif Raymond and Marvin Jones while Jameson Williams serves his six-game suspension. So if he gets put into a situation in which he is a temporary starting option, he may be useful for fantasy. That could give him early-season value.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
