In the wild jungle of the Rokhed NFL Dynasty, the Lions made their presence known with a mighty roar. With a draft grade of B+, they pounced on the opportunity to build a formidable team. Despite their 4th pick in the draft order, they clawed their way through 21 rounds, selecting players with cunning precision. Their projected record of 8-6-0 shows that they're ready to sink their teeth into the competition, aiming for a 7th place finish.
While the Lions may not have landed the king of the jungle, they did manage to snag a hidden gem. At pick 104, they selected J.K. Dobbins, who had an ADP of 47. Talk about a steal! However, not every pick was as majestic. The Lions' worst pick came at 124, where they chose Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had an ADP of 111. It seems they got a little too caught up in the heat of the moment. Additionally, the Lions showed their loyalty by drafting 4 players from the same team, creating a prideful bond within their roster. Let's hope they don't get too distracted by their shared roar!
Share
ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 4 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 101 - 2022 Rank: 4
Last season was Burrow's second in a row leading the NFL in on-target percentage (76.7) while finishing second in completion percentage (68.3). However, there was a slight dip in these stats in 2022 compared to the previous year, which is perhaps surprising because Burrow decreased his rate of deep throws significantly. In 2022, Burrow threw 20-plus yards downfield on only 7.5 percent of his attempts, ranking him 30th in the league. Meanwhile, his rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage rose to 19.6 percent. Nevertheless, he finished as QB4 in fantasy with the help of five touchdown runs and 257 rushing yards. Burrow also remained efficient on deep throws, tying Geno Smith for the highest on-target rate on 20-plus-yard attempts (60.0 percent). The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line did not meet preseason expectations, which could explain Burrow's increase in dump-offs. However, the team has since signed standout left tackle Orlando Brown and moved Jonah Williams to right tackle. Burrow's top three wide receivers, including Ja'marr Chase, are still on the team, and Irv Smith is replacing Hayden Hurst at tight end. Burrow's efficiency could improve, and even with some expected regression in his rushing touchdowns he stands a decent chance to remain in the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.
- Round 2, Pick 24 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 66 - 2022 Rank: 264
London had a great start and a great finish to his rookie season, but the nine games that fell between those periods of production were uninspiring. In the first three games of the season, the eighth overall pick averaged 5.3 receptions for 71 yards and scored two touchdowns. Over the last five games of the year, he fell below 70 yards just once. In between those two stretches, he had 40 or fewer yards in nine consecutive games. Some of his downswing may have been due to Marcus Mariota being the QB, especially after defenses had an idea how the Falcons wanted to 'run' their offense. However, the fact that London played his best football with Desmond Ridder under center bodes well for his future. Utilized both outside and in the slot, London was able to win matchups even when defenses focused on him after TE Kyle Pitts suffered a season-ending injury. London's overall numbers didn't look great, but he had enough big games to show that he has the makings of a star. While the Falcons figure to sport a run-first offense again, it's a safe bet London and Pitts dominate whatever volume the passing game provides.
- Round 3, Pick 44 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 95 - 2022 Rank: 277
Dotson came out of the gates firing as a rookie after being the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft, scoring four touchdowns in his first four NFL games, but a hamstring injury cut short his momentum for the next couple months. He found his groove again down the stretch, though, posting a 21-344-3 line from Week 13 on, and the Penn State product could be poised for a classic Year 2 breakout. While Terry McLaurin remains the Commanders' most reliable wideout, Dotson's speed and ability to make catches in traffic positions him as the better deep threat, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could take full advantage of those traits. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell also offers more upside than last year's starters, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke, did. Dotson saw one more target than McLaurin over those final five games of 2022, and he has a reasonable chance of emerging as the team's No. 1 receiver this season.
- Round 4, Pick 64 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 56 - 2022 Rank: 93
Despite dealing with some nagging injuries last year, Harris managed to play all 17 games and scored 10 touchdowns for the second time in two pro seasons, albeit within the confines of a sluggish Pittsburgh offense. The 2021 first-round pick fell shy of 4.0 yards per carry for a second straight year, with big plays few and far between while his receiving volume dipped from 93 targets in 2021 to 54 in 2022. Part of that was due to the Steelers throwing less and part due to backup Jaylen Warren getting a lot of playing time on passing downs. Warren is back this season and should have a sizable role off the bench again, but there's still room for Harris to have his best year yet if the Steelers take a step forward in QB Kenny Pickett's second pro year. As much as the young quarterback remains a huge question mark, the team's blocking should be better after Pittsburgh added former Eagles G Isaac Seumalo, rookie OT Broderick Jones (14th overall pick) and 264-pound rookie TE Darnell Washington (93rd pick). The Steelers could have above-average blocking for the first time in years. The lack of backfield depth behind the top two on the depth chart leaves room for Harris to push for 300 touches even if Warren also has a regular role in the offense.
- Round 5, Pick 84 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1 - 2022 Rank: 16
After a pair of injury-marred seasons, McCaffrey played the entire season and looked as dominant as he had in prior seasons. His 4.7 yards per carry was his best since 2019. Although he didn't have some of the crazy yardage totals from earlier in his career, he posted 1,210 scrimmage yards and 85 receptions while scoring 10 times over 11 games with the 49ers after an in-season trade. When running the ball McCaffery had a solid 74th-percentile broken tackle rate, but he was able to turn that into 94th-percentile yardage after contact. He wasn't as lethal as a receiver, posting a 52nd-percentile yards after the catch rate. However, with another year in the Shanahan system, that certainly could change as the veteran back learns the nuances of the offense. Down the stretch McCaffrey was scoring a touchdown, posting 100 scrimmage yards and recording over 20 PPR points in almost every game. Now that he's in an offense in which defenses have to worry about a variety of players, McCaffrey still can be the top scoring fantasy running back without seeing 400 touches.
- Round 6, Pick 104 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2415 - 2022 Rank: 367
A 2020 second-round pick, Dobbins has played only eight games since his rookie season, but has a big opportunity ahead in the final year of his contract. He was also a breakout candidate the past two years, but a major, multi-ligament knee injury ended his 2021 campaign before it started and had a major impact on his 2022. Early last year, Dobbins missed the first two weeks and then averaged only 8.8 carries for 30.8 yards in his first four games. After that, he missed six games to have an arthroscopic procedure on his surgically repaired knee, later returning in December revitalized to average 14.3 carries for 99.3 yards (7.0 YPC) over a four-game stretch. Dobbins now appears locked in for the starting job under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who doesn't figure to call as many runs as former OC Greg Roman, but should find a way to get his lead back more involved in the passing game (Dobbins has only 25 career receptions). The Ravens lack depth behind Dobbins, with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill the returning veterans and no incoming draft picks at the position.
- Round 7, Pick 124 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 129 - 2022 Rank: -
Smith-Njigba was selected with the 20th pick in this year's draft, profiling as a difference-making slot receiver. Although his 40 time was unimpressive, he showed excellent agility at the NFL Combine, which is what great slot receivers need, with elite marks in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and short shuttle (3.93). His biggest roadblock to fantasy relevance is his landing spot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will take the majority of WR targets on a team that wants to dominate on the ground. Metcalf is the No. 1 receiver and Lockett, even in his 30s, is still playing at a high level. Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the third wide receiver it has lacked in recent years and could make an immediate impact in three-receiver sets.
- Round 8, Pick 144 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 92 - 2022 Rank: 404
Although the Rams had a terrible season on offense, the same cannot be said for Higbee. He had career highs with 72 receptions and 108 targets. However, due to the crumbling offensive line and carousel at quarterback, his 8.6 yards per reception was the lowest since his 2016 rookie season. Higbee was frequently used on tight end screens, so his 64th-percentile yards after the catch rate helped him to post decent yardage totals, but he was very inconsistent (he had 15 or fewer yards in seven of his last 12 games). Nonetheless, in Weeks 1-5 when the offense was decent, he had between 39 and 73 yards in each game. Going into his age-30 season, it's unlikely Higbee will finish inside the top-12 tight ends, but he should be in the tier below that.
- Round 9, Pick 164 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 159 - 2022 Rank: 1496
Beckham missed all last season to rehab his ACL tear from the previous year's Super Bowl, waiting until April before signing a one-year deal with Baltimore worth $15 million, mostly guaranteed. It's a surprisingly large number for a wideout four years removed from this last 1,000-yard season, and he'll even have the chance to earn an additional $3 million in incentives. Beckham, 30, is a big part of Baltimore's passing-game makeover under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, whose brief tenure with the team has also been marked by QB Lamar Jackson signing an extension and the front office using a first-round pick on WR Zay Flowers. While both Jackson and Beckham seem happy, fantasy managers should be wary of Beckham's injury history and decrease in production. Even if he returns to form and stays healthy, he'll have sturdy competition for targets in what figures to be a balanced offense. In addition to Flowers and Beckham, the Ravens have 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman coming back from a foot injury and TE Mark Andrews looming as an annual threat to lead the team in targets. Beckham might help the Ravens more than he helps fantasy teams.
- Round 10, Pick 184 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 218 - 2022 Rank: 35
It's tough to compete with Justin Tucker for the title of the NFL's best kicker, but Carlson sure is putting together a strong challenge to this point in his career. The former Auburn standout has played at an All-Decade level in four of the last five years, the one exception being 2019 season where he only made 19 of 26 field goals. In the other four seasons Carlson has been pretty much perfect, even with high field goal attempt volume and with many of those kicks occurring from long range. Indeed, Carlson's 2022 season was quietly incredible due to the fact that he made 11 of 13 field goals from 50 yards or more. Carlson is a high-volume, long-range shooter who very rarely misses. Few kickers affect the game as much as Carlson.
- Round 11, Pick 204 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2073 - 2022 Rank: -
The 2023 draft class was seen as one of the best ever when it came to tight end depth, so the fact that the Cowboys used a second-round pick to make Schoonmaker the fifth tight end off the board is a strong indicator of his upside. The Michigan product offers good size and in-line blocking skills while also flashing plus athleticism and route-running, which is essentially the template Dallas has been using at the position ever since Jason Witten's heyday. Schoonmaker did deal with plantar fasciitis over the summer, which could limit him in his first training camp, and Jake Ferguson has a similar all-around profile while also having the advantage of an extra year in the system. Schoonmaker might end up being the team's future starter, but he has some obstacles to overcome to make a splash as a rookie.
- Round 12, Pick 224 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 223 - 2022 Rank: 650
It would be hasty to count Renfrow out after one bad season, especially since he was so solid in all of the three prior years. But his 2022 season could hardly have been more concerning. A concussion and oblique issue played a role, but for Renfrow to return just 36 receptions for 330 yards and two touchdowns on 50 targets in 10 games is the kind of dysfunction that could hint at a poor system fit. It's possible that Josh McDaniels just doesn't have much idea of how to use Renfrow, a fear that was made worse when the Raiders signed New England slot standout Jakobi Meyers to a three-year, $33 million contract this offseason. Then the Raiders bizarrely targeted two more slot specialists -- former Chargers wideout DeAndre Carter in free agency and Cincinnati wideout Tre Tucker in the third round of the draft. Renfrow himself is on a two-year, $31.7 million extension signed before the 2022 season, so the Raiders are on the hook for a lot of cash either way. Even if it's not his first inclination, McDaniels has plenty of incentive to figure out how to use Renfrow more properly in 2023. It's just not clear if McDaniels is any closer to getting there.
DEF - Round 13, Pick 244 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 163 - 2022 Rank: 82
In 2022, the Browns' secondary was solid, but their defense struggled significantly against the run. Their fantasy performance was also disappointing, as they ranked 20th with 20 takeaways and 27th with 34 sacks. The Browns have made significant changes in the offseason to improve, however, namely trading for pass rusher Za'Darius Smith and signing DT Dalvin Tomlinson to a large contract. With those two joining DE Myles Garrett up front, the Browns suddenly look strong on paper at all three levels, though it's fair to be skeptical given their track record of underperforming with talented rosters.
- Round 14, Pick 264 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 176 - 2022 Rank: 84
There's some concern about the foot that Garoppolo injured in December and underwent surgical repair in March. That concern led the Raiders to word Garoppolo's three-year, $72.75 million contract such that he can be cut with no cap penalty unless he passes a physical at some unspecified point. The Raiders presumably plan on Garoppolo passing said physical, or else they (A) wouldn't have bothered pursuing him with such a high-dollar contract and (B) they would have done something more about the quarterback position otherwise than just signing Brian Hoyer and spending a fourth-round pick on Aidan Hutchinson. If Garoppolo is toast then so is the Raiders offense, and coach Josh McDaniels certainly doesn't want that, especially after such a disastrous 2022 season. If Garoppolo can stay healthy then he should be a stabilizing presence for the Raiders as they move on from Derek Carr, who did not take well to McDaniels' scheme. Garoppolo's familiarity with McDaniels from their New England days should hopefully make Garoppolo a better fit in 2023 than Carr was in 2022. With Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow to throw to, it would seem like Garoppolo has the necessary help to move the ball as long as that foot cooperates.
- Round 15, Pick 280 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1098 - 2022 Rank: 174
As could be expected for a first-round pick, Walker was immediately slotted into a starting role among the Packers' linebacker corps in 2022. He led the team in tackles - an impressive feat - despite tallying five or fewer stops in six contests. That was a sign of his immaturity as a player, as were the two games from which he was ejected for making contact with an opposing coach. While there are areas to smooth out, Walker also proved quickly why he was worthy of a first-round selection. In addition to his aforementioned run-stopping ability, Walker was also able to quickly translate his athleticism into effective coverage by breaking up seven passes. Assuming he can become more consistent in his decision-making and level of play, Walker has every opportunity to vault up these rankings and is a prime breakout candidate.
- Round 16, Pick 284 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 298 - 2022 Rank: 844
Shakir handled a depth role for Buffalo as a rookie last year, after being drafted in the fifth round. He mixed in with Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder and Cole Beasley behind No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs, ending the year with a 10-161-1 in 14 appearances. With McKenzie, Crowder and Beasley no longer in Buffalo, Shakir is facing a clear path to establishing himself as the team's No. 3 wideout, and he's a better fit for the slot than either Diggs or Davis. The downside is that rookie first-round tight end Dalton Kincaid may hog snaps as a "big slot" option, and the Bills have invested substantially more in him than Shakir.
- Round 17, Pick 304 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 474 - 2022 Rank: 251
- Round 18, Pick 324 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2362 - 2022 Rank: -
A seventh-round pick in this year's draft, McBride has a path to touches after the Vikings released Dalvin Cook in June. Alexander Mattison is the starter, though he hasn't surpassed 3.7 yards per carry in either of the last two seasons. And last year's fifth-round pick, Ty Chandler, handled just six carries as the third-string back. McBride forced many missed tackles at UAB and runs in a physical manner could lead to him being an interior runner. However, he did not consistently pull away from defenders in the open field and was often passive when hitting the hole. He also wasn't much of a factor as a receiver. It would appear that he's more likely to battle with Kene Nwangwu for the No. 3 role than with Chandler for the No. 2 role, but McBride will get his chance in training camp.
- Round 19, Pick 364 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1938 - 2022 Rank: 571
It appeared that Hooper might take up a three-down starting role for the Raiders after they traded Darren Waller to the Giants, as Hooper had rehabilitated his market a bit with a solid showing in Tennessee last year after a disastrous run with the Browns. Hooper was a free agent bust for the Browns, no doubt, but it was hard to believe he was truly one of the worst tight ends in the league, which his numbers with Cleveland would otherwise imply. Hooper's work with Tennessee was more encouraging, and it raised the possibility that he was written off a little too soon. It was a bit of tough luck for Hooper, then, that rookie Notre Dame product Michael Mayer fell to the Raiders in the second round. Tight ends are notorious for struggling as rookies, and Hooper could hold off Mayer for a year, but that's far from guaranteed. Mayer was a fast starter at Notre Dame and by all accounts is an uncommon natural at tight end.
- Round 20, Pick 384 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1101 - 2022 Rank: 125
White is entering the final season of his rookie contract with his future is in limbo. He requested a trade from the Buccaneers this offseason, though the team made it clear they have no interest in dealing him. They've stuck to that position, and White remains on the roster, though he made his displeasure known by sitting out mandatory minicamp. He'll gain no tangible benefit by sitting out game action, however, so we can expect him to be on the field come August and September. Once the pads come on, there are far fewer questions, as he has posted 252 tackles and nine sacks across the last two seasons. The addition of first-round pick Calijah Kancey gives Todd Bowles another disruptive defender to scheme with, but White will pair with Lavonte David as the heart of the defense again in 2023.
- Round 21, Pick 404 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1637 - 2022 Rank: 427
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
