In the Rokhed NFL Dynasty draft, the Packers managed to secure the coveted 1st overall pick. However, their draft performance left much to be desired, earning them a disappointing D- grade. With a projected record of 1-13-0 and a projected finish in 18th place, it seems the Packers are destined for a season of disappointment. Their projected points of 1507.3 may sound impressive, but it's nothing compared to the challenge they'll face with the toughest schedule in the league. To make matters worse, they'll have to navigate through week 9 with four players on bye, leaving them scrambling for replacements.
While the Packers did manage to make one solid pick with Bijan Robinson at 101, snagging him well below his ADP of 10, their draft took a turn for the worse with their selection of Skyy Moore at 121, a far cry from his ADP of 126. It seems the Packers were determined to make every wrong move possible in this draft. With their lackluster performance and questionable picks, it's clear that the Packers are living up to their name by packing it in before the season even begins. It's going to be a long and painful journey for this team, and they'll need more than just cheeseheads to help them survive.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 1 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 153 - 2022 Rank: 217
A 2022 first-round pick, Pickett took over as Pittsburgh's starting quarterback in Week 4 last year and maintained the position for the remainder of the year whenever he was healthy. He struggled mightily early on but showed improvement as the season progressed. All in all, Pickett's average pass target depth was 8.2 yards, placing him in the middle of the pack, while his YPA was 6.2, second worst in the league. His receivers' low YAC average of 4.0 partially contributed to this. Additionally, he was adversely affected by a dropped-pass percentage of 11.9, which was the fourth-highest in the league. The team didn't add much receiving help in the offseason, apart from post-prime Allen Robinson. However, George Pickens had an impressive rookie season in 2022 with over 800 yards, and TE Pat Freiermuth finished with over 700 yards. There's hope for a bounce-back year from Diontae Johnson, who was the league's least efficient high-volume receiver last year. Even if Johnson struggles again, Pickett's league-low 10.9 TD pass percentage in the red zone can only improve. The Steelers are expected to focus on running the ball with Najee Harris as the lead RB, but Pickett's ability to add to the ground game -- three TDs and an average of 18.2 yards per game last season -- should not be underestimated.
- Round 2, Pick 21 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 108 - 2022 Rank: 227
Jones is coming off a breakout season in which he set career highs in targets (121), catches (82) and receiving yards (823). He also had five touchdowns, which was the 28-year-old's second most behind his seven TDs with Buffalo in 2018. After being used deeper downfield by the Bills and Raiders, Jones' increased success coincided with a change in role after joining Jacksonville. His average depth of target dropped from 14.0 yards with the Raiders in 2021 to 8.6 with the Jaguars in 2022, as Trevor Lawrence peppered Jones with targets underneath and set the wide receiver up to do damage after the catch. Jones should play a similar role in 2023, though matching last season's volume will be difficult, as Jacksonville added WR Calvin Ridley while retaining WR Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram, who soaked up 133 and 98 targets in 2022. If Jones can cut down on his drops -- he led the league with 13 last season - and improve on last year's lackluster 6.8 yards per target, he could replicate last year's production despite the expected dip in volume.
- Round 3, Pick 41 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 83 - 2022 Rank: 350
Sutton could remain a trade candidate if the Broncos see an opportunity to move him, only because his cap hit is very high for the next three years, but if they can't move Sutton then they might as well make good use of him in 2023. Disappointing as his last two seasons have been, the first was his initial return from an ACL tear the prior year, and both seasons were defined by memorably poor quarterback play. It's also worth noting that Sutton drew 12 defensive pass interference calls those two years -- a high figure. Fellow receiver Jerry Jeudy drew only three defensive pass interference calls over the same time span, for instance. If a handful of those DPI calls had been catches for the according yardage then that would have been enough for Sutton's numbers to look a little better. Hopefully, this season gives Sutton a chance to remind what he can do when he's healthy and has decent quarterback play to work with, because the production from Sutton's first two NFL seasons made him look like a future star.
- Round 4, Pick 61 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1630 - 2022 Rank: 146
- Round 5, Pick 81 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 62 - 2022 Rank: 130
Kittle's receptions and yardage for 2022 were well below the numbers he put up in prior seasons. But the big difference last season was his nose for the end zone. After scoring 20 touchdowns over the first five seasons of his career, he scored 11 TD's last year. As usual, he was very volatile. He had seven games with single digit PPR points. He also went over 20 points on four occasions. When drafting Kittle, fantasy managers simply can't take him out of their lineup. When he appears to be in a slump, the magic happens. For instance, after three straight games with less than 40 yards receiving, he erupted for two straight two-TD, 90+ yard contests in week 15 and 16 and seven touchdowns over four weeks. Kittle should be drafted as the fourth or fifth tight end off the board in most drafts, and he should provide a strong. though erratic, return on investment.
- Round 6, Pick 101 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: -
One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.
- Round 7, Pick 121 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 124 - 2022 Rank: 873
As much as it's fair to find Moore's 2022 rookie season disappointing, it would be harsh to describe it as a failure. The Chiefs run a sophisticated offense and went into 2022 with plenty of veteran wide receiver depth, so there was never much realistic room for Moore to draw usage as a rookie. Moore was a slot specialist out of the MAC, not to mention an underclassman, so it's to be expected that he couldn't reliably earn slot snaps over the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Smith-Schuster and Hardman are no longer on the team, moreover, so there's less slot competition for Moore going into 2023. Valdes-Scantling can only draw so many targets and Kadarius Toney has seen persistent injury issues in the NFL, so there's a good chance that the Chiefs lean on Moore for a meaningful workload behind Travis Kelce. Moore just needs to polish his game enough to hold off free-agent pickup Richie James, a lesser talent than Moore but one good enough to steal slot snaps if Moore struggles.
- Round 8, Pick 138 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 86 - 2022 Rank: 470
Gainwell gave a glimpse of what he might be able to accomplish in a bigger role in last season's wild-card win over the Giants, erupting for 112 rushing yards and a touchdown, but that could well end up being the high point of his Eagles tenure. A fifth-round pick in 2021, Gainwell's a valuable depth option in Nick Siranni's scheme, but his biggest asset is receiving skills that often go under-utilized in an offense that would rather have Jalen Hurts keep the ball himself than dump it off to a running back. Miles Sanders, another back who didn't get the workload his talent may have warranted, left for Carolina in the offseason, but Gainwell's shot at rising up the depth chart got thwarted when the team signed Rashaad Penny in free agency and traded for D'Andre Swift. The two imports have long injury histories though, so Gainwell might yet get a look as the Eagles' starter if both Swift and Penny happen to be on the shelf at the same time.
DEF - Round 9, Pick 141 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 158 - 2022 Rank: 10
Even though the 49ers' 44 sacks last year placed them outside of the top 10, the pressure they applied helped their secondary record 20 interceptions, which was the second-most in the league. Overall, this was the closest thing in this high-scoring era to a shutdown defense, as they gave up the fewest points (277) in the league. The strength of the defense is the trio of Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. They also have strong defensive tackles in free agent addition Javon Hargrave along with holdovers Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead -- they should keep the linebackers freed up to wreak havoc on opposing offenses. The cornerback play should be good, not great, and they lack depth behind Charvarius Ward and Isaiah Oliver. With the four superstars up front, this should be a top-five defense.
- Round 10, Pick 161 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 160 - 2022 Rank: 373
Now in the second year of a two-year contract with the Chargers, Everett heads into 2023 after a Chargers debut that was more busy than it was effective. Everett's target rate was excellent - 87 targets on 648 snaps should be major currency in such an enviable passing game - but the returns for those targets were underwhelming. It's a theme throughout Everett's career: despite being fast and making the occasional big play, his efficiency leaves something to be desired. To be fair to Everett, his 2022 production looks better if you include his performance in the Chargers' wildcard round loss to the Jaguars. If you include that game, then Everett finished 2022 with 64 catches for 663 yards and five touchdowns on 95 targets - an improved 67.4 percent catch rate at 7.0 yards per target compared to 66.7 percent at 6.4 YPT from the regular season - but it's worth remembering that Mike Williams missed that game and the Jaguars clearly sold out to stop Keenan Allen (six catches for 61 yards on 13 targets) and Austin Ekeler (two catches for eight yards on four targets). Everett is likely an excellent fantasy TE2 who could provide TE1 returns with a little luck, just don't expect the Jaguars game to be the norm.
- Round 11, Pick 181 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 193 - 2022 Rank: 165
Singletary spent most of the past four years as Buffalo's starting RB after being selected in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. He averaged a respectable 4.7 YPC over that span, and after scoring just six scrimmage touchdowns in his first two seasons, Singletary found the end zone 14 times over the last two years. Despite underwhelming measurables (5-foot-8 and 203 pounds with 4.66 speed), Singletary has proven to be a capable NFL running back, but he's looking at a massive downgrade in the situation heading into 2023. After playing the lead RB role in one of the league's most prolific offenses, Singletary's expected to be bumped to the backup spot behind Dameon Pierce in a Houston offense that's been one of the least effective in recent years. The Texans are going through a makeover on offense, and the addition of Singletary on a one-year deal is part of that effort, but there isn't much upside here barring an injury to Pierce. Perhaps Singletary can carve out more playing time on passing downs since Pierce is unproven as a receiver, though Singletary's career mark of 5.0 yards per target doesn't inspire much confidence in that regard, either.
- Round 12, Pick 200 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 212 - 2022 Rank: 94
Though McPherson's second pro season did not quite match up to his 2021 debut, he confirmed he's one of the better kickers in the league. He converted 9 out of 14 tries from 40-49 yards and all five from beyond 50 yards, also tying for sixth in PAT attempts (44) and seventh in PAT conversions (40). If anyone is to challenge Baltimore's Justin Tucker for the fantasy kicking throne, the 2021 fifth-round pick from his own division just might be the player to do so. While McPherson hasn't been as reliable as Tucker from close range, McPherson has an outstanding record from 50-plus yards (14 for 16) and is attached to a Cincinnati offense that's been considerably better than Baltimore's the past couple years.
- Round 13, Pick 201 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 704 - 2022 Rank: 1171
- Round 14, Pick 221 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1542 - 2022 Rank: 603
- Round 15, Pick 241 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 493 - 2022 Rank: 305
- Round 16, Pick 261 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 209 - 2022 Rank: 283
Peoples-Jones, a 2020 sixth-round pick, progressed from being a part-time deep threat his first two seasons to a regular starter in 2022. In 17 games played last season, he had a receiving line of 61 catches, 839 yards and three touchdowns on 96 targets. Compared to the previous year, Peoples-Jones had 38 more targets but recorded a drop in his average depth of target (aDOT) from 15.4 to 11.7. Furthermore, his yards per catch (YPC) and yards per target (YPT) decreased from 17.6 to 13.8 and 10.3 to 8.7, respectively. However, the Browns swung a trade this offseason for fellow wide receiver Elijah Moore, a 2021 second-round pick who is much smaller than Peoples-Jones at 5-10, 178, but also far more agile and faster (4.35 40). Although it's unclear whether Peoples-Jones and Moore will compete for a starting job or if Moore will be limited to being the No. 3 receiver in the slot, there is tough target competition behind Amari Cooper this year either way. The Browns also added WR Cedric Tillman in the third round to assist QB Deshaun Watson, and they already have a legitimate receiving threat at tight end in David Njoku.
- Round 17, Pick 281 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 946 - 2022 Rank: 1649
- Round 18, Pick 301 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 207 - 2022 Rank: 405
After a disappointing 2021 campaign, it wasn't clear Slayton still had a future with the Giants, but he re-established himself as a downfield threat under new coach Brian Daboll. It took a few games and a few injuries ahead of him on the depth chart for that to happen, though, as Slayton didn't make his first catch until Week 4 before going on to set new career highs in yards per catch and yards per target. The Giants brought in plenty of competition in the offseason, adding Parris Campbell in free agency, Jalin Hyatt in the draft and tight end Darren Waller via trade, but Slayton's elite speed should still give him a role in the offense. Slayton, 26, signed a two-year, $12 million contract in March to stay in New York, but less than half that money is guaranteed, so if he tumbles down the depth chart again he may not get another chance to regain his standing with the team.
- Round 19, Pick 321 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 251 - 2022 Rank: 322
Mayfield has been right around a 60% passer in his career. As a rookie in 2018, he completed 63.8% and then last year in five games with Sean McVay, he completed 63.6%, the second-best mark of his career. Actually, his 2020 in-season was probably his best (his rookie year was close) when he attempted just 486 passes in a run-heavy offense but had a 26:8 TD: INT. He played with a messed-up shoulder in 2021. And then last year he went between Carolina and the Rams. It seems that during his time in Cleveland, he didn't mesh with Odell Beckham because Beckham was one of the greatest freelancers of our time while Mayfield needs plays to run on schedule. Before Mayfield's injury-plagued 2021 season, Jarvis Landry averaged 79/997/4 (152) in three seasons with him, so Chris Godwin, who is significantly better than Landry was, could easily explode in this offense. Mayfield may not be a very good QB, but with two excellent weapons in Godwin and Mike Evans, he has potential for top-24 QB value.
- Round 20, Pick 341 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 214 - 2022 Rank: 1370
- Round 21, Pick 361 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 333 - 2022 Rank: 1166
Spiller's rookie season last year was disappointing, and he enters 2023 completely unproven. Spiller was on the field for just 53 snaps last season, taking 18 carries for 41 yards. Much more was expected of Spiller when the Chargers selected him in the fourth round of the 2022 draft. That said, Spiller is still more of a blank slate than a dirtied one. He only turned 21 on the Aug. 9 last year, meaning even a year later he's still younger than many running backs still in the college ranks. If Spiller improves with experience -- and conventional prospect trajectory says he will -- then the former Texas A&M star could put pressure on Joshua Kelley for the privilege of backing up Austin Ekeler in 2023.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
