In a draft that left fans scratching their heads, the Rams managed to secure a solid D- grade, signaling that their fantasy football prowess is about as elusive as a running back dodging tackles. With a projected record of 0-14-0, it seems the Rams are destined to be the laughingstock of the league, providing more entertainment off the field than on it. Despite picking 18th in the draft order, the Rams failed to capitalize on their position, leaving their opponents feeling as confident as a cornerback in single coverage against a star wide receiver.
While the Rams did manage to snag a potential steal in the later rounds with Michael Gallup, who was drafted at 178 despite an ADP of 125, their draft was marred by a questionable decision to reach for Marquise Brown at 118, when his ADP was a more reasonable 99. It seems the Rams are determined to keep their fans on their toes, drafting not one, not two, but four players from the same team. Perhaps they're hoping for some sort of fantasy football synergy, but it's more likely they're just trying to confuse their opponents with a convoluted game plan. With a schedule difficulty ranked as the 10th toughest out of 20 teams, the Rams are in for a bumpy ride this season. It's safe to say that the only thing the Rams will be ramming is their own hopes of success.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 18 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 103 - 2022 Rank: 44
For the second time in three years, injuries cost Prescott a significant portion of the season. Even when he was healthy though, a new issue arose as he tied for the league lead with 15 interceptions despite playing in only 12 games. Prescott's accuracy wasn't the problem, as he was as steady as ever, but a downgraded group of receivers that had little quality beyond top wideout CeeDee Lamb and dependable tight end Dalton Schultz gave the quarterback no margin for error. The inexperienced replacements for Amari Cooper couldn't gain much separation, and as a result Prescott kept having to try and fit the ball into windows that just weren't there. The Cowboys attempted to fix that problem in the offseason by trading for speedy veteran Brandin Cooks, and the team is also hoping Michael Gallup can return to form now that his ACL surgery is further behind him. The biggest change comes on the sidelines though, as offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was let go and head coach Mike McCarthy will now handle the play-calling. If McCarthy's scheme can accentuate Prescott's strengths, his production and efficiency should return to the level he displayed a couple years ago.
- Round 2, Pick 38 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 39 - 2022 Rank: 142
Aiyuk Is an excellent NFL receiver. He runs great routes, and he navigates traffic extremely well. He also had a solid 66th-percentile yards after the catch rate. Although he had the best season of his career with 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns, he was inconsistent. The main reason is that the 49ers often lean on their rushing attack, and they also have a number of weapons who they can choose to feature as receivers in any game. The problem for Aiyuk is that he can get ignored depending on the game script. He had 10 games in which he was targeted fewer than six times. That also led to him scoring fewer than 10 PPR points on eight occasions. He did have some upside by scoring at least 20 PPR points three times, but you get the picture. At the end of the season, good numbers will likely be there, but the path won't always be fun.
- Round 3, Pick 58 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 113
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 4, Pick 78 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 34 - 2022 Rank: 238
After having an incredible season in 2021, Samuel wasn't nearly as productive last year. He still was lethal with a 98th-percentile yards after the catch rate. And he was still used all over the formation, including 56 percent of the time in the slot. But in the 13 games he played, he averaged less than eight touches. Also, his 11.3 yards per reception was a career low. Although impressive, his 5.5 yards per rush was less than the 6.2 he had in 2021, and he also was limited to 42 rushing attempts. At age 27, it is possible that he had his career year in 2021, and although a very talented player, he is simply part of a bigger picture on the 49ers in which he'll never be featured to the level that would make him a fantasy superstar.
- Round 5, Pick 98 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 4 - 2022 Rank: 54
Pollard finally emerged from Ezekiel Elliott's shadow in 2022. The Memphis product turned a career-high workload into career-best volume numbers without losing any efficiency, as Pollard topped 5.0 yards per carry for the third time in four NFL seasons while delivering his best yards per catch average to date at 9.5. The Cowboys were also more willing to use Pollard in the red zone, resulting in 12 total touchdowns after he had only 10 in his first three years combined. The breakout performance, along with salary cap concerns, finally convinced Dallas to move on from a declining Elliott, but that doesn't necessarily mean Pollard's role has room to grow further as his thin frame may not be able to handle much more than last season's 233 touches. Then again, Zeke's 231 carries will have to go somewhere. The team did add Ronald Jones in the offseason, and Malik Davis looked capable enough as a rookie last year, but Pollard will head into 2023 as the clear top option in the backfield after getting the franchise tag from the club to keep him from reaching free agency.
- Round 6, Pick 118 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 102 - 2022 Rank: 356
Brown is at his best when he's used as a downfield target, however he had a career low 6.6 yards per target and 10.6 yards per reception with the Cardinals last year. It didn't help that Kyler Murray missed the end of the season with a knee injury, but regardless, this was far from a big play offense last year. There's also concern that Murray may not be ready to start the season due to his injury. Brown did miss Weeks 7 through 11 with an injury last year, but he had been coming on just before then. He posted at least 68 yards in each of the five games leading up to week 11. And during that stretch, he averaged 11.6 targets with no fewer than nine in any game. but once he returned, and specially due to the quarterback play, he never surpassed 61 yards the rest of the way. If Murray was going to be a full go for the season, Brown's fantasy value would be much higher. but if Murray misses time, the drop off in quarterback play is so significant that it hurts Brown's fantasy value.
- Round 7, Pick 158 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 131 - 2022 Rank: 446
Harris stays in the division after departing New England, inking a one-year deal with the Bills which sets him up as a key member of Buffalo's backfield. A thigh injury limited Harris to 11 games last season, but he remained efficient with 4.4 YPC. Durability is something of a concern, though, as Harris has combated lingering hamstring issues in back-to-back seasons. His lack of prowess as a pass catcher leaves clear room for James Cook to work in, almost certainly setting up the Bills for a committee backfield wherein quarterback Josh Allen is arguably still the top option. Harris is Buffalo's best RB option in goal-line and short-yardage scenarios, but Allen is a threat to siphon a substantial amount of those opportunities as well. The plus side for Harris' outlook is that the Bills project to find themselves in clock-killing situations more often than almost any team in the league, and Harris should be the clear go-to guy in those instances.
- Round 8, Pick 178 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 187 - 2022 Rank: 461
Injuries could well end up being the story of Gallup's career when it's all said and done. A third-round pick in 2018, the Colorado State product topped 1,100 receiving yards in his second NFL season and appeared poised for a big run in an explosive offense, but Gallup hasn't sniffed that kind of production since as he and quarterback Dak Prescott have rarely been 100 percent healthy at the same time. An ACL tear that shut the wideout down in the second half of 2021 also seemed to hamper Gallup in 2022, and he didn't have the same ability to gain separation once he was back in action. The Cowboys hope a healthy offseason will allow him to return to form, but the team also hedged its bets by trading for Brandin Cooks to be the No. 2 receiver behind CeeDee Lamb. Gallup has contributed in the No. 3 role before, but with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over play-calling duties from departed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, it's possible the Dallas passing game won't be able to support three receivers again to that extent.
- Round 9, Pick 198 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 177 - 2022 Rank: 65
Bass has proven to be one of the league's most accurate kickers since joining the Bills as a sixth-round pick back in 2020. He's logged back-to-back seasons with at least an 87 percent field-goal conversion rate, with 57, 51 and 48 PATs over the last three years. The weather conditions in Buffalo aren't ideal for a kicker, but Bass makes up for it in opportunities within one of the top offenses in the league. He's converted either 27 or 28 in each of his pro seasons.
DEF - Round 10, Pick 238 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 227 - 2022 Rank: 30
The Commanders' star-studded defensive line remained stout in 2022 even with Chase Young only playing three games, but issues in the secondary led to a poor overall first-half performance. The unit turned things around over the final couple months, and Washington finished the season in the top 10 in points per game allowed and 12th in sacks. 2023 first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes should reinforce the back end, while Cody Barton comes over from Seattle to bolster the linebacking corps, but Young finally living up to his potential will likely be the key to this defense being great instead of merely good.
- Round 11, Pick 258 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 171 - 2022 Rank: 717
While Thomas stayed mostly healthy last year after a torn Achilles ruined his 2021 campaign, he wasn't able to recapture the form he showed in his breakout 2020 season, when he posted a 72-670-6 line on 109 targets. Now 32 years old, it's possible he'll never regain those heights, but Thomas will get a near-ideal situation this year in which he'll try and prove that production wasn't a complete fluke. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell offers a potential solution for the franchise's long-running woes at that position, but more importantly, new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy brings with him a Kansas City scheme that helped put Travis Kelce on a Hall of Fame trajectory, Thomas is no Kelce, but he has little competition for the top spot on the depth chart if Bieniemy decides to lean on his starting tight end once again.
- Round 12, Pick 278 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 2030 - 2022 Rank: 597
Woods shined when given extended opportunities as a rookie last season. Across the three games in which he played at least 60 percent of offensive snaps, the 2022 third-round pick caught 14 of 18 targets for 160 yards. Woods topped 40 percent of snaps only once over the remainder of the season while splitting reps with Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson. All three tight ends are set to return in 2023, plus the Colts drafted Will Mallory in the fifth round, but Woods should have the opportunity to earn a more significant role in his sophomore season. Woods scored three times as a rookie, and his 6-foot-7, 265-pound frame should make him an enticing red-zone target for the Colts' new QB, whether that's rookie fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew.
- Round 13, Pick 298 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1376 - 2022 Rank: 666
- Round 14, Pick 318 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 639 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 15, Pick 320 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 710 - 2022 Rank: 537
- Round 16, Pick 338 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 755 - 2022 Rank: 860
- Round 17, Pick 358 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 330 - 2022 Rank: -
A lack of measurables or ideal size kept Gray from being an early round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, but after being taken in the fifth round by the Giants, he has a chance to carve out a role as a rookie. While he didn't show much power or explosiveness in college, Gray demonstrated solid passing-down skills out of the backfield, and his elusiveness made life difficult for would-be tacklers in space. He'll compete with veteran Matt Breida for what few touches are available behind Saquon Barkley, but both backups could have fantasy value if Barkley gets hurt or winds up in a contract holdout.
- Round 18, Pick 378 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2545 - 2022 Rank: 1256
Johnson's on the roster bubble heading into camp after signing a one-year deal with the Jaguars in the offseason. There's likely one more spot to be had behind starter Travis Etienne and rookie third-round pick Tank Bigsby, with Johnson competing against JaMycal Hasty, Snoop Conner and Qadree Ollison for the No. 3 role. Johnson's the most accomplished of the remaining RBs by virtue of having posted 671 scrimmage yards and three TDs as a member of the Browns in 2021. His ability to play on special teams also helps his case, but Johnson got just seven offensive touches in 2022, and he's likely an injury or two away from a prominent offensive role, even if he makes the team.
- Round 19, Pick 381 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 2477 - 2022 Rank: 627
The Patriots traded up to draft Thornton in the second round last year, but Thorton didn't do much as a rookie. An injury forced him to miss the first four games of the season and when he returned he was the odd man out among the WR competition. But this season, Jakobi Meyers is in Las Vegas and Nelson Agholor is in Baltimore, creating perhaps a sizable role for Thornton. If he can build upon his on-field rapport with Mac Jones, his 4.28 speed could bring a much needed big-play element to the Patriots' passing attack. Neither newcomer JuJu Smith-Schuster nor holdover DeVante Parker can stretch the field quite like Thorton, meaning he could also see play in two-TE sets alongside Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki. Thornton should improve on last year's numbers -- 22-247-2 on 45 targets in 13 games -- given the likelihood that he'll see increased volume with the chance to make his mark as a deep threat in 2023.
DEF - Round 20, Pick 398 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1934 - 2022 Rank: 49
In 2022, the Rams defense was close to average. They allowed 384 points, which was the 12th-most in the league. They were below average with 38 sacks, but they had 16 interceptions, which placed them in the top 10. Yes, Aaron Donald is still Superman, but the rest of this defense is in transition. Other than Donald, they have very little in the way of run stoppers or pass rushers. And the pass coverage is likely going to be a major issue after the team traded away Jalen Ramsey. This could compete to be the worst defense in the league as the Rams enter a transition phase. It's unlikely they'll have many good fantasy performances.
- Round 21, Pick 412 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 278 - 2022 Rank: -
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
