In the Rokhed NFL Dynasty draft, the Houston Oilers made a splash with their impressive performance, earning them a well-deserved A grade. With a projected record of 11-3-0, this team is poised to make a big splash in the league. Despite picking 6th in the draft order, the Oilers managed to secure some top-notch talent, including the steal of the draft with James Cook at pick 106, well below his ADP of 81. It seems like the Oilers have struck oil with this pick, and they'll be laughing all the way to the bank as their opponents scramble to contain him on the field.
While the Oilers made some great choices, they did stumble a bit with their worst pick, selecting Ezekiel Elliott at pick 126, slightly higher than his ADP of 122. But hey, even oil tycoons have their off days, right? The Oilers also took a risk by drafting three players from the same team, Tyler Conklin, New York, and C.J. Mosley. It's a bold move that could pay off big if that team performs well, but it also means the Oilers will be at the mercy of that team's bye week. With five players on bye week 7, the Oilers might need to tap into their reserves to keep their engines running smoothly. Nevertheless, with their draft grade and projected finish, the Houston Oilers are ready to strike fear into the hearts of their opponents and prove that they're the true rulers of the fantasy gridiron.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 6 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 61 - 2022 Rank: 17
By now it's safe to call Herbert one of the league's elite quarterbacks, even after a somewhat disappointing 2022 season saw his touchdown rate and per-pass yardage decline from his 2021 and 2020 seasons. It didn't make much sense for Herbert to only throw for 25 touchdowns in 2022 after throwing for 69 touchdowns over the two prior seasons, so the Chargers decided to make a switch at offensive coordinator, deleting Joe Lombardi's dink-and-dunk offense for a Kellen Moore scheme that will hopefully do more to unleash Herbert's standout downfield passing ability. Between Moore's addition and the selection of first-round wide receiver Quentin Johnston, it's shaping up to be a bounce-back season for Herbert and the Chargers offense. Although it seems Herbert won't ever be inclined to run much, he still has the athleticism to do so. He could provide fantasy production similar to Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen if he can just get his per-pass yardage up over 8.0 yards per attempt. If Herbert's pass attempt volume stabilizes while his per-pass returns spike upward, something like a 5,000-yard, 40-touchdown season could be on the table. He was already close in 2021, when he threw for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns.
- Round 2, Pick 26 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 11 - 2022 Rank: 83
The 17th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Lamb's numbers have climbed steadily through his first three seasons. He emerged as Dak Prescott's clear top option in 2022 after Amari Cooper was traded to the Browns. Lamb's production really took off last year once Prescott put a thumb injury behind him, and after the Cowboys' Week 9 bye, the wideout averaged nearly 90 yards a game through 11 regular-season and postseason contests while finding the end zone seven times. That breakthrough was more impressive considering the Oklahoma product was essentially a one-man show downfield for Dallas last year, as the front office never found an adequate replacement for Cooper, but that shouldn't be an issue in 2023. Lamb's supporting cast got a significant boost in the spring with the addition of Brandin Cooks, whose ability to stretch the field should open things up underneath on the routes where Lamb thrives. While it is hard to project Lamb's target volume to increase much beyond the 9.2 passes per game he saw in 2022, his efficiency might find another gear if Cooks can draw attention from defenders.
- Round 3, Pick 46 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 20 - 2022 Rank: 196
Olave's rookie situation was relatively solid when compared to many of the top rookies wideouts who were stuck with terrible quarterback play. Andy Dalton played capably and understood the importance of getting the ball to his star receiver. As a result, Olave never had fewer than 41 yards in a game. However, after a strong start to the season in which Olave had at least 80 yards in four of his first 10 games, he didn't surpass 65 yards in any of his last five contests. Even though he had 13 catches of more than 20 yards (and four of those catches gained at least 40 yards), he only had a 17th-percentile yards after the catch rate. That is something he'll need to improve on in 2023. New QB Derek Carr, who's expected to play behind a weak pass-protecting OL, could hinder Olave's downfield potential. Carr will likely need to pound Olave with targets in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Olave is already a top-20 receiver, but if he can work well with Carr, he could end up in the top 15. If Olave's QB showed more big-play potential, the sophomore wideout would be considered a top-10 WR.
- Round 4, Pick 66 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 64 - 2022 Rank: 141
McLaurin has posted four straight strong seasons in the NFL despite playing with a litany of unimpressive quarterbacks that includes Case Keenum, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell will get a chance this year to stop the carousel and establish himself as the Commanders' QB of the future, but until he proves himself, McLaurin's ceiling could remain capped even if his floor seems rock solid. There are reasons for optimism even beyond Howell's development, however. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy brings an explosive scheme with him from Kansas City, and second-year wideout Jahan Dotson could give defenses someone else to account for downfield. McLaurin has the measurables and skills to take another step forward in his production if things click with Washington's new-look passing game, but at 27 years old his window to make that leap could be closing.
- Round 5, Pick 86 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 59 - 2022 Rank: 123
Conner overcame a rough team situation for the second year in a row to post excellent production. In 13 games, He totaled 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite terrible run blocking from the Cardinals, he was able to produce due to a 73rd percentile broken tackle rate and 72nd percentile yards after contact. His 4.3 yards per carry equaled his best total since 2018 when he was running behind a strong offensive line in Pittsburgh. He continues to be an excellent receiver, recording 65th percentile yards after the catch rate. His 46 receptions represented the second most of his career. Of course, Conner will miss time. He's missed between two and six games over the last six seasons, but as the running back position goes, that's not terrible either. He continues to be disrespected in fantasy drafts. it's likely that people overrate his injury history. It's also possible that they remember the weak start to the season that he had last year. But going into his age-28 season, he still should have another year of solid production. and as long as you're prepared for him missing some time, drafting him to be an RB2 makes sense.
- Round 6, Pick 106 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 45 - 2022 Rank: 375
Cook's role was limited as a rookie, but he showcased impressive efficiency (5.7 YPC) in those contained flashes. The departure of Devin Singletary should make it easy for Cook to build upon last season's 89 carries and 32 targets, though new arrival Damien Harris represents significant competition, especially for between-the-tackles and goal-line work. Cook's best path to production will be to translate his efficiency to the receiving game, though he didn't exactly impress in that respect as a rookie. Cook caught just 65.6 percent of his targets for 5.6 YPT last season, but as he was never more than a rotational back at Georgia, he could benefit even more than the usual RB from a second offseason to get up to speed at the NFL level. Veteran Latavius Murray is also capable of rotating in for carries. And Josh Allen's elite rushing abilities further reduce the opportunities up for grabs in Buffalo's backfield. A scenario where Cook truly emerges isn't impossible, but he'll need to distinguish himself from the crowd.
- Round 7, Pick 126 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 184 - 2022 Rank: 106
Elliott posted a career-low 3.8 yards per carry last season as his rushing attempts fell for the fourth consecutive year. As a receiver, his yards per reception decreased in each of the last few years as well, bottoming out at 5.4 last year. No surprise, the Cowboys released him in March. However, Elliott scored 12 touchdowns 15 games and likely will be used in a similar goal-line role after signing with the Patriots in August. Rhamondre Stevenson is the lead back, but Elliott could at least cut into a share of his carries, especially in short yardage. Elliott is 28 and definitely on the downside of his career, but injuries were part of his trouble the last two seasons and if he stays healthy he could again have some fantasy value as a goal-line runner.
- Round 8, Pick 146 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 206 - 2022 Rank: 449
Only seven tight ends have recorded at least 550 yards in each of the past two seasons, and Conklin quietly counts himself among that mark. In similarly under-the-radar fashion, he finished second on the Jets in targets (87), catches (58), receiving yards (552) and TDs (three) last year, behind Garrett Wilson in each category. New York's new-look offense brings a more crowded receiving corps to join Aaron Rodgers, as Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman both resemble new competition for targets, but this is also a passing game that looks primed to take a significant step forward as a whole. Conklin remains likely to operate as the team's No. 1 tight end, ahead of C.J. Uzomah and 2022 third-round pick Jeremy Ruckert. It remains to be seen whether that role can lead to an uptick in receiving utility.
DEF - Round 9, Pick 166 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 164 - 2022 Rank: 25
Head coach Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich guided the Jets defense to a massive step forward in Year 2 of their regime. The unit finished fourth in points and yardage, an accomplishment facilitated in no small part by rookie fourth overall pick Sauce Gardner. 2019 third overall pick Quinnen Williams emerged with 28 QB hits and 12 sacks, and the addition of Chuck Clark to the secondary leaves room for improvement in 2023. Last season, of course, New York's defense couldn't make up for abysmal play on the offensive side of the ball, but the addition of QB Aaron Rodgers promises to stabilize things on that front. Barring regression at multiple positions, the Jets' defense looks primed to position the team for a playoff run, as long as the offense can take its promised step forward.
- Round 10, Pick 186 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1282 - 2022 Rank: 110
Entering his ninth NFL season, Mosley has emerged as one of the most consistent tacklers in the league, topping 100 stops on six occasions. However, he's particularly blossomed under coach Robert Saleh in the last two years, posting his two highest tackle-total seasons and totaling 326 stops. Even at a relatively advanced age of 31, Mosley has recently shown the ability to improve his skills. He tallied seven passes defensed in 2022, his highest mark since the 2017 season. Given the wear and tear on his body, there will be some risk that Mosley will either lose a step or lose out on playing time due to injury in 2023 and beyond. However, it's hard to argue with his track record until he shows tangible signs of slowing down.
- Round 11, Pick 206 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1579 - 2022 Rank: 170
- Round 12, Pick 226 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 200 - 2022 Rank: 291
Osborn came alive late last season, showing upside for a bigger role this season. After averaging 23 receiving yards per game in his first 13 games with three touchdowns, Osborn had games of 157 and 117 yards in the last four weeks, averaging 87.5 yards per game and scoring twice. But increased targets is far from guaranteed after the Vikings used a first-round pick on WR Jordan Addison this spring, and Osborn likely will remain in the No. 3 role, even though the team moved on from Adam Thielen. Plus, tight end T.J. Hockenson could get more work after joining the team midseason last year. At 5-foot-11, 203, with 4.48 speed, Osborn could produce if given the chance. But he'll likely need an injury to Justin Jefferson or Addison for that to happen.
- Round 13, Pick 246 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 270 - 2022 Rank: 419
Although he's going into his age-25 season, things are not looking up for Fant. Despite seemingly having more opportunity last year in Seattle than he did in Denver, he posted career lows in yardage, targets and yards per reception. Although he's a great athlete, Fant was in the 40th percentile in yardage after the catch. To make matters worse, Seattle moved Colby Parkinson ahead of Fant as a receiver in the second half of the season. It seems unlikely that things will turn around for Fant anytime soon, and he may not be worth a draft pick in many fantasy leagues.
- Round 14, Pick 266 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 230 - 2022 Rank: 103
Sometimes, an offense can be too good, at least when it comes to providing value for its kicker. Elliott led the league in PATs in 2022, but he saw only 23 field-goal attempts as the Eagles' efficiency in the red zone and aggressiveness in going for the big play helped carry the team to the Super Bowl, but didn't leave it settling for three points often. There's little reason to think Elliott's opportunities will increase significantly this season. Philadelphia's scheme and main skill players, including quarterback Jalen Hurts, are unchanged, and coach Nick Siranni will keep calling Hurts' numbers at the goal line until defenses prove they can stop him. Elliott has a decent fantasy floor due to all those PATs, but his upside is lacking.
- Round 15, Pick 286 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 549 - 2022 Rank: 128
- Round 16, Pick 306 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2549 - 2022 Rank: 376
McKenzie signed a one-year deal with the Colts after posting career highs in targets (65), catches (42) and receiving yards (423) with the Bills in 2022. He'll compete for the slot receiver role against rookie third-round pick Josh Downs, and Downs is likely the preseason favorite in that competition over the 28-year-old McKenzie. Michael Pittman should continue to operate as the team's No. 1 WR, and Alec Pierce is the clear favorite to start opposite Pittman on the outside. McKenzie mustered four TDs in 2022 and five TDs in 2020 despite operating as the No. 3 WR at best in Buffalo, but replicating that success will be difficult in Indianapolis while catching passes from either rookie fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew. Even if Richardson hits his most optimistic projection out of the gate, McKenzie's likely in for a QB downgrade compared to Josh Allen. Throw in the run-first nature of the Colts' offense, and there's limited upside to be found with McKenzie, even if he holds off Downs for a starting spot.
- Round 17, Pick 326 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 22 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 18, Pick 346 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1781 - 2022 Rank: 260
DEF - Round 19, Pick 366 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 300 - 2022 Rank: 52
A top-notch group of pass rushers headlined by Leonard Williams and Kayvon Thibodeaux didn't translate into much fantasy production last year, as the Giants finished outside the top 10 in sacks and in the bottom eight in turnovers. Having Azeez Ojulari healthy for a full season would help, and free-agent tackling machine Bobby Okereke should bolster a shaky run defense, but the secondary lost safety Julian Love in the offseason and will likely need 2023 first-round pick Deonte Banks to make an immediate impact at cornerback if the unit as a whole is going to take a step forward.
- Round 20, Pick 386 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 2465 - 2022 Rank: -
Washington's collegiate stat line from three seasons at Georgia may be considered underwhelming, with a total of only 45 receptions, 774 yards and three touchdowns. Nevertheless, he displayed good speed and agility at the 2023 Scouting Combine and had some first-round hype due to his massive frame (264 pounds) and impressive blocking skills. Ultimately, Washington was drafted by Pittsburgh in the third round, with reports suggesting he dropped due to medical concerns with his knee. Although Pat Freiermuth is locked in as the team's top tight end, Washington could quickly unseat Zach Gentry for the No. 2 role and might find his way to rookie-year fantasy value in the event of a Freiermuth injury. If nothing else, Washington gives the Steelers more versatility to use multi-TE sets and help the running game.
- Round 21, Pick 406 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 340 - 2022 Rank: -
Robinson has been in the league for seven years, most of those with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. However, he has yet to record 50 receptions or 470 yards in a season. But now that he's with the Rams, he'll compete with Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek and Tutu Atwell for either the No. 2 or No. 3 receiver role. There's a reasonable chance that Robinson plays significant snaps in three-receiver sets. He could become a depth player in deeper fantasy leagues.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
