In the depths of the Rokhed NFL Dynasty draft, the Dolphins found themselves swimming against the current. With a draft grade of D and a projected finish of 18th, it seems like they may have been better off splashing around in a kiddie pool. Despite their 3rd overall pick, their selections left much to be desired. The Dolphins' 21-round draft left them with a projected record of 1-13-0, which is about as promising as a dolphin trying to climb a tree.
While there were a few bright spots in their draft, such as snagging Jahmyr Gibbs at 103, a steal considering his ADP of 37, the Dolphins also made some questionable choices. Taking JuJu Smith-Schuster at 143, far earlier than his ADP of 126, was like jumping into shark-infested waters without a life jacket. It's safe to say that the Dolphins' draft strategy was about as effective as teaching a dolphin to play football. With their tough schedule and two players on bye week 13, it looks like the Dolphins are in for a rough ride this season. Perhaps they should consider changing their team name to the Floundering Fish.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 3 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 24 - 2022 Rank: 2
Allen has been strikingly consistent the last three seasons, though his 4,283 passing yards in 2022 took a slight dip, after he finished with over 4,400 the previous two years. He's had 37, 36 and 35 passing touchdowns consecutively, and his 2022 rushing line of 124-762-7 was almost identical to 2021's mark. Consistency and excellence don't often overlap, but it's a feat that Allen has unquestionably managed. The Bills are likewise running it back with a relatively similar roster, despite having yet again failed to advance past the AFC divisional round, though the addition of first-round TE Dalton Kincaid certainly provides upside. Allen managed to excel in 2022 despite playing through a serious elbow injury, though he's expected to be fully healthy by Week 1. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis return as his top receivers, while tight ends Dawson Knox and Kincaid should perform well as a tandem, even if the learning curve for rookies at the position is steep. Damien Harris could be a more helpful power rusher than Devin Singletary, who departed in free agency, but the stage is set for Allen to once again thrive on the ground as much as through the air.
- Round 2, Pick 23 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 14 - 2022 Rank: 85
Walker proved to be a very explosive running back in his rookie season. He finished the season with at least 100 yards rushing in each of his last three games and in five of his last 10 contests. On the season, he ended up with 1,215 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns on 255 touches. Although Walker had an outstanding 96th-percentile broken tackle rate, he posted just 54th-percentile yards after contact. He was very good as a receiver by posting a 67th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But Walker has a bit of a boom-or-bust nature to his game. He often will have a number of short runs before breaking off a long strike, but there are plenty of running backs in the past that have lived that way and been successful. However, Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second-round of this year's draft, which is not good news for Walker. It seems that Walker will enter the season as the lead runner, with Charbonnet having at least a significant change-of-pace role. Charbonnet required too much draft capital to sit on the bench. The situation will be enough of a timeshare to view Walker as a fantasy RB2 option, instead of the RB1 scenario he was shaping up to be before the Draft.
- Round 3, Pick 43 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 57 - 2022 Rank: 117
Lockett has been one of the most consistent performers in the NFL over the last four years. During that time, he's posted between 1,033 and 1,175 yards. He's also scored between 8-10 touchdowns in five straight years. His targets have also been consistent, as he has seen between 107 and 117 in three of the last four years. Last year, he had an excellent weekly scoring floor. He posted at least 60 yards in 10 games. He's going into his age 31 season, so decline is likely on the horizon, but from what we've seen, he may likely have a gradual descent opposed to a complete loss of skills. Lockett will likely be a value in drafts like he was last year, and betting on his consistency over many years seems like a safe bet.
- Round 4, Pick 63 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 58 - 2022 Rank: 374
Mattison's value in the last few years has simply been that he did pretty well when Dalvin Cook missed time. However, he was inconsistent in the games he had to take over as a starter. With Cook no longer on the team, Mattison enters the season as the lead running back. As he's shown in limited opportunities, the weekly upside can be great, but without him having a consistent role in the past, it's unclear how he'll function in that role. He's never had more than 134 carries in any of his four years in the league. After averaging 4.6 and 4.5 yards per carry in his first two years, he dropped to 3.8 and 3.7 in the last two years. Although he had an impressive 79th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was only in the 34th percentile in yards after contact, which may mean that some of his early-career explosiveness has been lacking. He could have competition from players the team has drafted in each of the past two years, Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride, in addition to Kene Nwangwu. Mattison is attractive for fantasy based on the potential for heavy volume. However, his recent production and potential competition could be problematic.
- Round 5, Pick 83 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 74 - 2022 Rank: 334
Starting his 2022 season in Week 7 after a suspension to start the year, Hopkins came out on fire the first few games. He then tailed off the rest of the way. Of course, the Cardinals did lose Kyler Murray in December to a knee injury, so the quarterback play was not good. However, Hopkins posted just a 14th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But with him seeing 10.6 targets per game, his production was always going to be solid. Aside from the suspension, he missed two games due to injury at the end of the season, on top of missing six games in 2021. Prior to those injuries, he only missed two games in his first eight seasons. Going into his age-31 season, we have to begin to wonder whether the durability issues have to do with him aging. The Titans are betting against it, as they signed Hopkins to a two-year contract in July after the Cardinals released him earlier in the offseason. The veteran wideout now joins an offense that's consistently prioritized the run under coach Mike Vrabel, but Hopkins at least won't have much competition for targets apart from 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks. The two wide receivers and RB Derrick Henry figure to account for a huge portion of Tennessee's offense.
- Round 6, Pick 103 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 31 - 2022 Rank: -
The Lions clearly think Gibbs is a franchise RB after using the 12th pick in the draft on him. He doesn't have an ideal lead RB size, but he's not a small back either. However, he doesn't profile as a strong interior runner. His game is vision and speed, and he has elite skills in those areas. Getting him in space as a runner and receiver would make the ideal situation for him. Since the team has David Montgomery, Gibbs could be held below 250 touches and lose red-zone opportunities, though that isn't a guarantee. His range of outcomes is vast. Those who believe he'll be a game-breaker from Day One should aggressively target him in drafts. The concerns are that his touches will be limited and will lessen his potential upside. Though drafting him outside the top-12 running backs would still make him very valuable if he sees fewer touches than the top-backs in the league.
- Round 7, Pick 123 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 50 - 2022 Rank: 134
Much of the discussion surrounding Kamara the past couple years has focused on a potential suspension, and the NFL finally made a decision in early August with the announcement of a three-game ban. Otherwise, Kamara is no longer the top-three running back he was the first few years of his career, though he's still recorded at least 1,300 scrimmage yards in each of his six seasons. The past two years he got more carries (240 and 223) but fewer targets (67, 77) after starting his career with four straight seasons of at least 97 targets and fewer than 200 carries. Much of that was related to the Saints transitioning to a run-first offense after Drew Brees' retirement, and it's possible Kamara shifts back toward more receiving work after the team signed a veteran QB (Derek Carr) and a 224-pound RB (Jamaal Williams) and spent a third-round pick on RB Kendre Miller. Less likely is Kamara recovering the TD prowess and remarkable per-touch efficiency of his early years, in part because he's lost a step and in part because Williams and QB/TE Taysom Hill figure to get most of the goal-line carries. There's still potential for Kamara to be an every-week fantasy starter once he completes the three-game suspension, but a high-end-RB1 ceiling is no longer within his range of outcomes.
- Round 8, Pick 143 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 122 - 2022 Rank: 272
Smith-Schuster technically operated as the Chiefs' top wide receiver during last season's Super Bowl run, putting up a 78-833-3 line in the regular season. In reality, though, he served as a true No. 2 receiving option behind tight end Travis Kelce. The Patriots saw fit to seemingly swap out Jakobi Meyers for Smith-Schuster, presumably setting up to handle a similar big-slot role, which does bode well, but production may be harder to come from while catching passes from Mac Jones instead of Patrick Mahomes. The acquisition of Mike Gesicki to pair with Hunter Henry could also forebode the Patriots running more two-TE sets, in which case an outside WR would likely share the field rather than a slot man. Still, Smith-Schuster's three-year, $25.5 million deal with $16 million guaranteed at signing is a nice guarantee of his involvement as a key pillar on offense. His base salaries for 2023 and 2024 are guaranteed, so he figures to remain in New England for at minimum a two-year stint.
- Round 9, Pick 163 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 138 - 2022 Rank: 343
After racking up 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns the last three seasons for the Cowboys, Schultz made the intrastate move to Houston on a one-year, $9 million contract. The 27-year-old tight end should emerge as one of the top targets for rookie QB C.J. Stroud. Schultz's 577 yards last season were more than any other pass catcher currently on Houston's roster posted in 2022, and Schultz was even better in 2021, when he set career highs in both yards (808) and touchdowns (eight). The lack of alternatives could lead to more targets for the 6-foot-5 tight end, who was targeted at least 89 times in each of his last three seasons with Dallas. However, that extra volume will likely be accompanied by increased scrutiny from opposing defenses without the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard around to occupy most of the defense's attention.
DEF - Round 10, Pick 183 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 222 - 2022 Rank: 60
It's a major setback that the Broncos lost 2022 defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero in a lateral move to the Panthers, because Evero authored one of the best defensive coordinator showings of the past 10 years or so by making the Broncos defense one of the best in the league last year. Even with the offense hanging them out to dry every single week, the Broncos played stingy coverage and found ways to routinely stump opposing quarterbacks. Evero's replacement isn't a bad one. Vance Joseph has done solid defensive work in the past and was one of the few things holding the Kliff Kingsbury Cardinals together the last few years, but anyone would be hard-pressed to match Evero's excellent work. The Broncos run defense in particular looks dubious, but the pass rush and coverage personnel could be quite good. The Broncos have three capable edge rushers between Randy Gregory, Baron Browning and Frank Clark, while Patrick Surtain, K'Waun Williams, Damarri Mathis and Riley Moss could prove to be one of the better four-deep cornerback rotations in the league.
- Round 11, Pick 203 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 243 - 2022 Rank: 436
Gesicki is a uniquely athletic pass-catcher for a tight end, but for the first time in his NFL career, he'll have to contend with another competent No. 1 option at the same position. Hunter Henry is more than capable of moving the chains, and he's a much more proficient blocker than Gesicki. Henry has even historically been more effective in the end zone, but Gesicki's explosiveness could give him an edge on obvious passing downs. Offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien may well implement multi-TE formations as a fixture of New England's identity, but it doesn't seem likely that Mac Jones will air it out enough to guarantee Gesicki consistent weekly volume. That could mean he repeats as a low-floor, high-upside option, reminiscent of his time in Miami.
- Round 12, Pick 223 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 190 - 2022 Rank: 46
Koo has proven to be one of the league's finest kickers over the course of three and a half seasons with Atlanta. Despite being tied to subpar offenses, he's often been a top fantasy performer, albeit with some help from the team's dome. He has demonstrated his prowess from 50-plus yards, boasting an impressive record of 20-for-25, and he's also gone 31-for-39 from 40-49 yards. Koo's talent keeps him on the fantasy map again this year even with Falcons QB Desmond Ridder projecting as one of the lesser starting quarterbacks in the league. If the Falcons offense can merely become competent behind a strong running game, Koo is good enough to place among the top fantasy kickers.
- Round 13, Pick 243 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 645 - 2022 Rank: 957
- Round 14, Pick 263 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1891 - 2022 Rank: 740
- Round 15, Pick 283 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 790 - 2022 Rank: 1119
- Round 16, Pick 303 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1885 - 2022 Rank: 216
- Round 17, Pick 323 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 219 - 2022 Rank: 572
Robinson had an impressive two years with the Bears in 2019 and 2020, surpassing 1,000 receiving yards both times. However, he had a setback during the 2021 season, only catching 38 passes for 410 yards and one touchdown across 12 games. In 2022, he signed with the Rams for three years but struggled to make an impact while playing under coach Sean McVay. Robinson ended up with only 33 catches for 339 yards and three touchdowns over 10 matches before being sidelined for the remaining seven weeks due to a foot injury. During the offseason, he was traded to the Steelers, giving them a third option at wide receiver alongside Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. Given Robinson's age -- 30 in August -- and lack of production the last two years, he may only be the No. 3 WR in what's unlikely to be a pass-heavy offense. He did at least return healthy for the offseason program, and there's not much competition for the third receiver spot even if he continues to struggle.
- Round 18, Pick 343 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 269 - 2022 Rank: 143
Patterson has had the best two years of his 10-year career while with the Falcons. As good as he was running the football in 2021, he was even better in 2022. He went from 4.0 to 4.8 yards per carry and doubled his runs of more than 20 yards from two to four. He had an excellent 82nd-percentile broken-tackle rate and turned that into a 62nd-percentile yards after contact. But after handling 22 and 17 carries in Weeks 1 and 3 last season, he never had more than 14 carries thereafter. And he finished the season with 18 carries over his last three games. Also, his work as a receiver was drastically reduced. After catching 52 passes for 548 yards and five touchdowns in 2021, his targets fell from 69 to 31 and his yards per target were slashed by more than half from 7.9 to 3.9. It's difficult to imagine his role increasing as he heads into his age-33 season. With rookie Bijan Robinson the starter, it's hard to imagine Patterson will have a reliable role, unless it's at wide receiver.
- Round 19, Pick 363 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2531 - 2022 Rank: 885
DEF - Round 20, Pick 383 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 297 - 2022 Rank: 61
The Panthers defense placed in the lower half of the league in almost every significant category last season. While they bolstered their secondary by acquiring safety Vonn Bell, they waited until the third round of the draft to add more help with the selection of pass rusher DJ Johnson. The Panthers did use a bunch of first-round picks on defenders in previous drafts, including DT Derrick Brown and CB Jaycee Horn, so a big step forward isn't entirely out of the question. Still, they should be treated as a potential streamer rather than a likely week-to-week starter for fantasy.
- Round 21, Pick 403 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 359 - 2022 Rank: 120
Although he missed four games last year, Prater converted more than 84 percent of his field goals for the first time since 2018. Despite not being one of the more accurate kickers in the league, his leg strength is among the best in the NFL. Prater has converted at least five field goals of at least 50 yards on nine different occasions during his career. The biggest obstacle to Prater being a useful fantasy option is the state of the Arizona offense. Kyler Murray is a question mark to start the season, DeAndre Hopkins is no longer with the team and the offensive line projects to struggle again. If the team can't move the ball, Prater won't get the needed opportunities to be a weekly fantasy option.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
