In a draft that can only be described as 'meh,' the Broncos managed to secure a solid B- grade. With the 10th pick in a 21-round draft, they had the opportunity to make some waves, but instead opted for a lukewarm approach. Their projected record of 8-6-0 and projected finish in 7th place perfectly encapsulate their lackluster performance. It seems the Broncos are destined for a season of mediocrity, but hey, at least they're consistent!
One shining moment in an otherwise forgettable draft was the Broncos' best pick, snagging Dawson Knox at 170 when their ADP was 124. It's a small victory, but a victory nonetheless. On the flip side, their worst pick was reaching for Tyler Allgeier at 130, when their ADP was a slightly more reasonable 127. Perhaps the Broncos were trying to make a statement, but it seems they missed the mark. And let's not forget the four players they drafted from the same team. It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for them. With a draft like this, the Broncos might as well change their team name to the 'Broncos of Average.'
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 10 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 85 - 2022 Rank: 24
Tagovailoa finally looked like an elite playmaker on the NFL stage for stretches last season, proving that he's an obvious fit for coach Mike McDaniel's scheme, before concussions derailed his what appeared to be a decisive breakout. He nonetheless finished the season with a QB rating of 105.5, third best in the league, and a first-place 8.9 yards per pass attempt. A top-three wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle cements Tagovailoa's situation as elite, especially after an offseason of minor additions to the offensive line. The only significant question still looming over the fourth-year QB is one of durability, as even before last season's concussion issues he'd never played more than 13 games in a single year. As long as Tagovailoa can stay upright, though, he should produce at one of the league's highest rates, and over the offseason he was cleared of additional risk for suffering future concussions. It seems unfair to demand another 'prove-it' season from Tua after his accomplishments in 2022, but even after the Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option, he still needs to demonstrate he can put it all together for a full campaign.
- Round 2, Pick 30 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 87 - 2022 Rank: 154
Akers had a weird 2022 season. We'll never know if he was still recovering from the Achilles injury he suffered in 2021. In Weeks 1-10, he averaged 2.83 yards per carry and was benched for two games. Although he faced four of the top 10 defenses in those seven games, he looked as if he was struggling to get to the line of scrimmage before getting hit on most carries. After his banishment, he continued to struggle, as he played 21 snaps but ran for just 2.72 yards per carry. However, he was a completely different player during the last eight games of the season. He rushed for 4.8 yards per carry, though he did that against an easy schedule. He was specifically excellent in Weeks 15 through 18 when he faced defenses in the bottom 10 in three of the four games. He had at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of those games along with a three-touchdown performance. and during that stretch, he averaged 5.47 yards per carry while also catching nine passes. So the big question becomes whether his resurgence had to do with schedule or recovering from his injury. It's likely that the answer is somewhere in the middle. ranking him around RB20 seems safe, as he should get volume, though we're unsure as to what level he'll play at. If it was just a matter of Akers getting back to full health, he will be one of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts, but there is definitely a risk.
- Round 3, Pick 50 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 78 - 2022 Rank: 127
Higgins is well established as a high-quality WR2 in both real life and fantasy football. There's been some talk of him getting a WR1 opportunity as he enters the final year of his contract, but the Bengals don't seem interested in succumbing to trade rumors. Higgins showed up for the offseason program, and the team can keep him around next year with a franchise tag even if he doesn't sign an extension this summer/fall. He had at least 908 yards and six touchdowns in each of his first three NFL seasons, including back-to-back 1,000 yard campaigns the past two years. At 6-4, he excels on jump balls and contested catches, and although he is not as fast as teammate Ja'Marr Chase or as much of a YAC threat, Higgins nonetheless has proven quite useful on short and intermediate passes. In terms of fantasy upside beyond the 1,200-yard range or so, that'll probably only happen for Higgins in Cincinnati if Chase misses extended time -- a scenario that would leave the talented 2020 second-round pick as Joe Burrow's unquestioned top option.
- Round 4, Pick 70 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 140 - 2022 Rank: 517
Burks struggled to find a rhythm as a rookie despite the lack of alternatives in Tennessee's passing game. The 2022 first-round pick out of Arkansas had breathing problems in camp and was ultimately limited to 11 appearances as a rookie due to turf toe and a concussion. Despite those limitations, Burks finished third on the team with 54 targets. Both players who ranked ahead of him -- WR Robert Woods (91) and TE Austin Hooper (60) -- are no longer on the Titans, but the team did sign veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins in July. The 6-foot-2, 225-pound Burks has shown no signs of breathing problems in camp this year, and whether it's veteran Ryan Tannehill or rookie second-round pick Will Levis throwing him the ball, Burks should at least be Option B in Tennessee's passing game.
- Round 5, Pick 90 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 121 - 2022 Rank: 637
Pitts took a big step back between his rookie year in 2021 and his sophomore campaign in 2022. Before suffering a knee injury in his 11th game, he had scored twice while averaging 35.6 yards per game. Pitts had two solid games with 80 and 87 yards but was held under 30 yards seven times. Although Pitts didn't do much with his chances, he at least was targeted between five and nine times in each of his last five games. He remained the focal point of a low-volume passing game. Going into 2023, we're not questioning Pitts' talent. He's still one of the most physically gifted tight ends to ever come out of the college ranks, and it's highly likely he increases his production from last year. But if the offense is still run-heavy and sophomore WR Drake London is also handling a large target share, Pitts might not put up huge numbers even if he performs better. A shaky QB situation adds to the concern, with second-year pro Desmond Ridder having averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt in four games as a rookie last year.
- Round 6, Pick 110 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 98 - 2022 Rank: 198
Davis may be the posterchild definition of a post-hype sleeper. After endless debate last offseason, Davis ended 2022 with an underwhelming 48-836-7 on 93 targets in 15 games, career highs almost across the board, but disappointing compared to the 201 yards and four touchdowns he put up in a playoff loss to Kansas City he put up to end the previous season. When remembering that Davis managed this while playing second fiddle to Stefon Diggs, a top-5 wideout in the league by almost any metric, his Year 3 step forward looks a bit more favorable. The Bills added a first-round tight end in Dalton Kincaid this offseason, but Davis remains primed to play a key role in this passing game, potentially as a more trusted No. 2 option for Josh Allen. After a boom-or-bust 2022 campaign, it's possible Davis could manage more consistency this season.
- Round 7, Pick 130 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 106 - 2022 Rank: 173
There's always concern about sustainability when a running back flashes in a small sample. But Allgeier definitely made the most of his opportunities as a rookie last year. The fifth-round pick averaged 4.9 yards per carry while ranking in the 92nd percentile for broken-tackle rate and 87th percentile for yards after contact. The 220-pound back had six runs of at least 20 yards (with three of those going over 40 yards) on 210 total carries. And his role increased as the season wound down. His four highest-usage games came in the last four weeks of the year, and he averaged 5.5 yards per carry in that stretch. Only one of those games came against a bad run defense, and he also caught six of seven targets for 52 yards during that span. Despite the impressive rookie year, Atlanta drafted RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall in April, leaving Allgeier without much of a fantasy ceiling unless his new teammates miss time.
- Round 8, Pick 133 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 84 - 2022 Rank: 690
Thomas played just 10 games the last three seasons. And now he's entering his age-30 season. In each of the three games he played last year, he caught at least five passes, posted 49-65 yards and scored three times. He still showed he could run routes, but he was often catching the ball and going right down without producing yardage after the catch. Is it possible he regains health and moves back into a lead role? Yes. Is it something that the recent past has shown that it is a possibility? That's a hard "no." Regardless of how good Thomas looks, it's also possible that second-year receiver Chris Olave may have taken on the mantle as the Saints' top receiver. The later Thomas falls in drafts, the more the injury and risk ratios are reduced.
DEF - Round 9, Pick 150 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 165 - 2022 Rank: 18
The Bills are staring down a worrying amount of turnover on the defensive side of the ball, with DC Leslie Frazier moving away from coaching and MLB Tremaine Edmunds now in Chicago. Von Miller is working his way back from an ACL tear and in danger of getting off to a slow start, but this is a unit that should return 10 of 11 starters. Coach Sean McDermott reportedly intends to call plays, which should provide this unit with a reasonable floor at least. However, the Bills are facing an extremely difficult schedule and won't have many victories handed to them, and the addition of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets places Buffalo in perhaps the NFL's toughest division. The Dolphins offense should again be high-scoring, while Mac Jones and the Patriots seem situated for improvement with new OC Bill O'Brien at the helm.
- Round 10, Pick 170 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 178 - 2022 Rank: 324
Knox managed a similar receiving line from 2021 to 2022, hovering within the 500-yard range each season, with the exception of his touchdown total dropping from nine to six. He earned his first Pro Bowl with scores in each of Buffalo's last four games, plus the team's playoff opener. Knox has momentum and clear chemistry with Allen on his side, making him a lock to retain a key role on offense for the Bills, but the selection of first-round rookie TE Dalton Kincaid clouds things. Though Knox is under contract for three more seasons, Kincaid represents Buffalo's future at the position, and he could begin competing for snaps as early as Year 1. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis remain the top options in this passing game, making Knox the No. 3 look for Allen at best, with the danger of Kincaid earning work out of the slot. In all likelihood, the best path for Knox to maintain valuable production will be in the end zone.
- Round 11, Pick 190 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 182 - 2022 Rank: 547
Offseason knee surgery kept Jefferson out until Week 8 last season. When he returned, he had every opportunity to capitalize in the Rams' injury-riddled offense. By the time the team was down to a third-string quarterback and a bunch of depth pieces at wide receiver, Jefferson was seeing close to five targets per game. But he didn't do much with his opportunity, finishing with 24 receptions, 369 yards and three scores. He never caught more than three passes in a game. And that was with playing 64 percent of his snaps in the slot, so he frequently would get a free release from the line. The Rams traded Allen Robinson to the Steelers this offseason, leaving Jefferson as the No. 2 wideout to Cooper Kupp. That should give him plenty of opportunities this season to be a weekly threat in the passing game.
- Round 12, Pick 230 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 161 - 2022 Rank: 926
Howell made only one start last year as a rookie, and that came in Week 18, but the North Carolina product appears poised to begin 2023 as the starting quarterback for Washington. The team cleared the way for the 2022 fifth-round pick to take over by releasing Carson Wentz and letting Taylor Heinicke walk in free agency. Howell has the arm talent to succeed in the NFL, but he lacks game-changing mobility and has to prove he can diagnose coverage quickly enough to take full advantage of a solid group of wideouts led by Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. The Commanders brought in Eric Bieniemy to run the offense, and the former Kansas City offensive coordinator will likely focus on setting Howell up for quick strikes rather than leave him hanging in the pocket behind what was one of the league's poorer offensive lines in 2022. If Howell stumbles badly, veteran Jacoby Brissett is a capable backup, but the younger QB will get every chance to show he can solve the franchise's long-running woes at the position.
- Round 13, Pick 250 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 234 - 2022 Rank: 1138
Some had hoped White would compete with Josh Jacobs and perhaps even win the starting Raiders running back role as a rookie, but that of course was a bit hasty. Jacobs is a very good three-down back, whereas White even in theory was more of a rushing specialist, ideally one who plays off the bench. White has real speed to work with and runs with a hot motor, so his tenacity combined with adequate wheels should make him a useful runner in the NFL, just as he was at Georgia when he started over James Cook and Kenny McIntosh. White couldn't earn playing time as a rookie is somewhat disappointing, but it was never a fair expectation that he compete immediately with Jacobs as a rookie fourth-round pick. If Jacobs were to miss time then White would be a good bet to start for the Raiders, with passing-down specialist Ameer Abdullah likely still the main pass catcher. White had an injury history at Georgia, a predictable result of his intense running style at a relatively high build (6-feet, 214 pounds), so it should be understood that even if Jacobs were to miss time White would likely not see as many carries, or targets for workload limitation reasons.
- Round 14, Pick 270 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 201 - 2022 Rank: 81
Sanders managed a career-high 41 PATs in coach Mike McDaniel's high-flying offense last season, while also converting 81 percent of his 32 field-goal attempts. He went an impressive 12 of 13 from the 40-49 range, but only converted 2 of 6 from 50+ yards out. Though he may not be more than a slightly above league-average kicker, Sanders' leg strength allows his number to be dialed from a wide range of positions on the field. The Dolphins' offense projects to be among one of the league's better scoring units, and if the team's additions on defense also work out, Sanders could find himself in position to close out games more often.
- Round 15, Pick 290 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1585 - 2022 Rank: 266
- Round 16, Pick 310 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1853 - 2022 Rank: 245
- Round 17, Pick 330 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 581 - 2022 Rank: 273
- Round 18, Pick 350 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 279 - 2022 Rank: 674
Gray is a useful structural player for the Chiefs and a legitimately good athlete who demands honest acknowledgment from the defense when running routes. The problem is that Gray is easily neutralized as a receiver, and there's not much room for him to operate in the first place with Travis Kelce around. Even if Kelce were to miss time, Gray wouldn't be able to do the things Kelce does. There's no shame in that - no one can do what Kelce does - but at 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, Gray is built more like a fullback than a true tight end. Despite his limitations from scrimmage, Gray appears locked into a regular role in the Chiefs offense after logging 576 snaps last year.
- Round 19, Pick 370 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 241 - 2022 Rank: -
Downs was highly productive at UNC, but the 2023 third-round pick's measurables are nothing to write home about. His 4.48 speed isn't all that impressive given his size at 5-foot-10, 175. But Downs played faster than his 40 time suggests in college en route to 195 catches, 2,364 yards and 19 touchdowns in 24 games his last two seasons. Downs will compete with former Bills WR Isaiah McKenzie for the starting job in the slot for a Colts passing game with few established pass catchers after Michael Pittman. If Downs beats out McKenzie, he and second-year wideout Alec Pierce would likely see the majority of targets behind Pittman, but there may not be all that many looks to go around. The Colts are planning to implement a run-first approach around RB Jonathan Taylor, especially if rookie fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson starts right away at QB. The strong-armed Richardson should contribute to the run-heavy nature of Indianapolis' attack with his legs, and there are questions about his accuracy, so Downs could have an easier path to early success if Richardson loses the QB competition to veteran Gardner Minshew.
- Round 20, Pick 390 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 268 - 2022 Rank: -
Although the Browns had more pressing needs on the defensive line, they selected Tillman in the third round of April's draft. The team had already traded for WR Elijah Moore earlier in the offseason but nonetheless decided to take a chance on the 6-foot-3, 215-pound Tillman, who could be a red-zone threat for quarterback Deshaun Watson. Tillman found the end zone 12 times in 2021 at Tennessee, but he was then hindered by an ankle injury in 2022. Tillman has a challenging task ahead of him trying to prove himself among a crowded position group, and he'll likely start his career fourth or fifth on the depth chart. Moore, Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones are favorites to handle the top three spots, likely leaving Tillman to compete with Marquise Goodwin and others for depth roles.
- Round 21, Pick 410 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1166 - 2022 Rank: 156
Milano is as steady as they come and served in a prime role in the Bills' defense since 2018. He's topped 100 tackles only once in his career, which doesn't keep pace with his peers at the position. However, Milano stands out for his ability in coverage, as he has 38 pass breakups and eight picks across 85 career games. He inked a two-year extension with the Buffalo this offseason and is still in his prime heading into his age-29 campaign. Milano is set to once again anchor a strong defense while working as a core piece at outside linebacker.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
