In the Rokhed NFL Dynasty league, the Chiefs found themselves picking 16th out of 20 teams. With 21 rounds to fill their roster, they had high hopes for a successful draft. Unfortunately, their efforts only earned them a lackluster D+ grade. Projected to finish 11th with a record of 6-8-0, it seems the Chiefs have a long road ahead. Their projected points of 1653.61 may not be enough to secure a playoff spot, as only 8 teams make the cut. To make matters worse, they face the 12th toughest schedule out of all 20 teams, adding an extra challenge to their quest for victory.
While the Chiefs may not have hit it out of the park with their draft, they did manage to snag a steal in the later rounds. With the 176th pick, they selected Hayden Hurst, who had an average draft position of 127. This unexpected gem could prove to be a valuable asset to the team. On the flip side, their worst pick came at 116, just one spot ahead of the player's average draft position. It's a classic case of almost getting it right, but not quite. With three players on bye week 13, the Chiefs will need to strategize carefully to navigate this obstacle. All in all, the Chiefs' draft may not have been a roaring success, but hey, at least they got a bargain!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 16 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 199 - 2022 Rank: 74
Murray has been able to do some incredible things on the football field since coming into the league. but between personnel issues on offense and questionable coaching, it's fair to say we haven't seen the best out of him yet. Unfortunately, after suffering an ACL tear on December 12th, he's expected to miss at least the first four games of 2023. Much of last year's problems can be placed on external factors, but there's no certainty those will be any better this season. Murray had a career low 6.1 yards per attempt last year, and his 14.7 TD:INT ratio was the first time he wasn't over 2:1 since his 2019 rookie season. Of course, Murray continued to do well as a runner. He had at least 25 rushing yards in all but one game while going over 40 four times. Because of the knee injury, it's hard to recommend Murray as any more than a QB2 this season. And that is mostly in single quarterback leagues where fantasy managers take a second quarterback. To count on him in superflex leagues is difficult until we have a firm timetable for his return to complete health.
- Round 2, Pick 36 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 6 - 2022 Rank: 56
Diggs' couldn't have asked for a better career development than being traded to Buffalo back in 2020, as each of his three seasons with the Bills resulted in more receiving yards and more catches than any of his five years in Minnesota. Heading into his age-30 season, Diggs is coming off three straight Pro Bowls and a 2022 campaign that saw him set a new career-high TD mark with 11 scores, including three in Week 2 alone. As the clear No. 1 target for Josh Allen, Diggs has averaged 112.7 catches for 1,396.3 yards and 9.7 touchdowns per season in his time with the Bills, solidifying himself as one of the few true alpha wideouts in the league. First-round rookie TE Dalton Kincaid a crowded cast of complementary options, but none of Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir or Dawson Knox are a true threat to Diggs' target share. As he approaches his age-30 season, remember that Diggs will some day begin to slow down. But he hasn't shown any signs of that yet. For now, the veteran is attached to an elite quarterback and established as the unquestioned No. 1 option amid his offense.
- Round 3, Pick 56 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 30 - 2022 Rank: 76
Last year, Jones was typically drafted as a top-10 running back. He ended the season with 1,516 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. That made Jones a very good early pick. So what happened this offseason? He took a $5 million pay cut. The big difference in the offense is that Aaron Rodgers is out and Jordan Love is in at quarterback. Rodgers was excellent when throwing to running backs, though we don't know how Love will be in that capacity. In early drafts, Jones is being selected outside of the top-15 running backs. His stock may be dropping because he's entering his age-28 season. In addition, fantasy managers may not be excited about the direction of the offense with Rodgers gone. Regardless, Jones has averaged over five yards per carry over his career, including a 5.3 mark last year. In addition, he's posted at least 355 receiving yards in the last four years. He had taken on the lead role over AJ Dillon last year, but once Jones was dealing with late-season injury issues, Dillon cut significantly into the workload. Jones may be the best player on the Green Bay offense, and the coaching staff may need to make him the focal point. If they do, Jones would become a great value in fantasy drafts.
- Round 4, Pick 76 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 65 - 2022 Rank: 162
Moore hadn't been able to catch a break with the quarterbacks he's played with throughout his career. He is one of the most gifted receivers in the league, but we've yet to see him unlocked. Last year's 888 yards was the first time since his rookie year he's posted less than 1,157 yards. Of course, in his worst yardage season, he scored seven touchdowns, which was the first time in his career he had more than four. Using him in fantasy lineups was a rollercoaster ride. He had four games with fewer than 10 yards but three games with more than 100. He also was limited to 10-30 yards on four other occasions. He's still young as he enters his age-26 season. The good news is that even though we've yet to see it, Justin Fields should be the best QB he's ever played with. And if Fields plays to his perceived ability, Moore could be in line for a career year. But even if Fields doesn't show major improvement, with Moore as the clear lead receiver on the team, his floor should be the 1,150 yards and four touchdowns he averaged between 2019-2021.
- Round 5, Pick 96 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 73 - 2022 Rank: 211
Pacheco's rookie season was a smashing success, and one the former Rutgers standout could potentially build on in his second NFL season. Pacheco's hard-charging, high-speed approach as a runner between the tackles makes him difficult for defenses to handle as they more so concern themselves with Patrick Mahomes, so there's not much reason to fear regression from Pacheco's average of 4.9 yards per carry from 2022. Pacheco has the speed to score from long range, yet in 2022 he had only three carries over 20 yards and none over 40 - both of those numbers would be good bets to rise in 2023. There's also room for growth in Pacheco's pass-catching production. The Chiefs increased his route-running workload as the season progressed, and Pacheco was occasionally effective as a receiver in his Rutgers days. Jerick McKinnon is still around to poach passing-down snaps if Pacheco slips up, and former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire can't be written off entirely either, but Pacheco has the clear lead in this backfield and plenty of momentum behind him.
- Round 6, Pick 116 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 125 - 2022 Rank: 180
After undergoing UCL (elbow) surgery on March 10th, it's hard to know what we can expect from Purdy this season. Was he just a poster child for any quarterback being placed in the Kyle Shanahan system? Or was he truly a special quarterback who was completely unnoticed until the very last pick of the NFL draft? He won each of the eight games he started before his injury, including two NFL playoff games. However, he threw for 220 or fewer yards in five of eight games. The best game he had was in the Wild Card round against Seattle when he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns. He did throw for at least two touchdowns in each of his first seven starts. He also had an impressive 67.1 percent completion percentage along with a 13:4 TD: INT. If he does get the starting job and is healthy, there's little reason to expect he'll be any less effective than he was last year. Even if film comes out on him that exposes flaws, the offense he's in creates optimal passing windows, and he has incredibly talented weapons at his disposal. But the injury he suffered is significant and it's also possible that he is not 100% to start the season.
- Round 7, Pick 136 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 141 - 2022 Rank: 492
Okonkwo was brought along slowly for the first half of his rookie season, but the 2022 fourth-round pick out of Maryland flourished down the stretch. He caught at least three passes in six of Tennessee's final seven games, racking up 24 catches for 278 yards and two touchdowns over that span. Veteran WR Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, who worked ahead of Okonkwo at TE for most of last season, both left in free agency. Okonkwo and fellow 2022 draft pick Treylon Burks are thus set to take on expanded roles in the Tennessee passing game alongside offseason signing DeAndre Hopkins. Okonkwo's undersized at 6-foot-2 and 244 pounds, but if he blocks well enough to earn an every-down role in the Titans' run-first offense, the tight end should continue to cause mismatches for defenses with his 4.52 speed, which was the best among all tight ends in his draft class. Tennessee didn't bring in a veteran replacement for Hooper, settling for 2023 fifth-round pick Josh Whyle, so Okonkwo should get every opportunity to expand his role in 2023 after playing more than half of the team's offensive snaps only twice in 2022.
- Round 8, Pick 156 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 111 - 2022 Rank: 540
Warren's performance during his college years was unremarkable, and his athletic testing ahead of the 2022 NFL Draft was average. Nonetheless, he quickly made an impact with the Steelers after signing as an undrafted free agent last spring. He not only earned a roster spot but also surpassed two fourth-round picks from previous drafts on the Pittsburgh depth chart, becoming Najee Harris's backup and playing mostly in passing situations. At 5-8, 215, Warren's low center of gravity and reliable hands made him a nuisance for defenses on check-down throws. Although he's a valuable complementary player for Pittsburgh, he won't necessarily become a high-volume starter even if Harris misses time. Warren struggled to average 5.0 YPC in college, and though he achieved 4.9 YPC in 2022, it was partially due to the Steelers limiting his carries to low-stakes situations or snaps where the defense was expecting a pass. He does appear secure in his spot on the depth chart, as the Steelers still have little in the backfield beyond Harris and Warren.
- Round 9, Pick 176 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 137 - 2022 Rank: 598
Hurst signed a three-year contract with the Panthers in the offseason, joining his third team in three years and fourth NFL franchise overall. From a fantasy perspective, it is a favorable landing spot for a tight end who would only be a backup for some teams. The Panthers lack not only competition at Hurst's position but also talented pass catchers overall, as they traded away WR DJ Moore to select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young first overall. While far from explosive, Hurst has enjoyed spurts of fantasy utility in which he drew a handful of targets per week, including last season in Cincinnati as the fourth option in a WR-heavy passing game. With fewer standout players to compete with in Carolina, he could even challenge his 2020 career high of 88 targets, which resulted in a 56-571-6 receiving line for the Falcons that year. Heading into 2023, snap competition is weak, to say the least, with fellow Panthers tight ends Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble having repeatedly proven themselves non-factors in the passing game.
- Round 10, Pick 196 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 240 - 2022 Rank: -
Dell didn't have to travel too far between college and the NFL, as the wide receiver out of Houston was selected 69th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft by the Texans. What Dell lacks in size (5-foot-8 and 165 pounds), he made up for with production in college, leading the NCAA in both receiving yards (1,398) and touchdowns (17) last season. Due to his modest frame, Dell will likely operate as a slot receiver in the NFL, but he could have an opportunity to carve out a substantial role out of the gate in an underwhelming Houston receiving corps. No WR on Houston's roster reached 600 yards last season, and the entire team will be adapting to new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and new QB C.J. Stroud. Dell could also be the team's punt and kickoff returner on special teams. He plays faster than his good-not-great 4.49 40-yard dash but will need to bulk up without sacrificing speed to hang around in the NFL and avoid injuries.
- Round 11, Pick 216 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 192 - 2022 Rank: 403
Valdes-Scantling is a textbook example of a player who's more useful on the real football field than in fantasy football. He has speed that forces the safety to stay over the top, a useful decoy function that helps buy cover for Travis Kelce underneath, and if the safety doesn't defend MVS over the top then Patrick Mahomes is prepared to strike against the single coverage. If the defense tries to counter MVS' speed with a similarly speedy corner, then that corner is usually much smaller and thus someone MVS can bully as a blocker in the ground game. The problem is neither of these scenarios result in fantasy points for MVS, even though he's playing a very real role in making the Chiefs offense succeed. Dropped passes have always been an issue and will likely continue to cap MVS' per-snap target upside. The result is that MVS can't credibly draw targets in the underneath or intermediate, leaving him mostly dependent on hit-or-miss production on sporadic downfield targets.
- Round 12, Pick 236 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 186 - 2022 Rank: 1274
After being selected in the fifth round of the 2023 draft, Chandler handled just six carries as the third-string running back. With Dalvin Cook no longer on the team, Chandler could be in line to take on an increased role behind Alexander Mattison. However, Chandler could have competition from Myles Gaskin and Kene Nwangwu. It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that Chandler pushes Mattison for work, after Mattison failed to surpass 3.7 yards per carry both of the last two seasons.
DEF - Round 13, Pick 256 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 311 - 2022 Rank: 64
The Chargers defense lost defensive coordinator Renaldo Hill to the Dolphins in what was actually a demotion in title (defensive backs coach), a strange twist given that Hill seemed to have a good thing going with the Chargers. At least they were able to replace Hill with Derrick Ansley, who hopefully won't miss a beat after serving as the defensive backs coach under Hill the last two years. If Ansley can keep the system working, then the Chargers otherwise have the player talent to field a strong defense in 2023. Cornerback is the main question following the devastating patellar tendon tear suffered by high-dollar pickup J.C. Jackson, but the good news is the secondary should have help from a strong pass rush, especially if Joey Bosa can stay healthy. Bosa, Khalil Mack and second-round rookie Tuli Tuipulotu could form a fierce edge rush, and inside linebacker signing Eric Kendricks could improve the run defense and tight end coverage both. Durability has been the main undoing of the Chargers defense lately, so some better luck might be all it takes for them to break out in 2023.
- Round 14, Pick 276 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 235 - 2022 Rank: 982
A sixth-round pick last season, Ingram had an uninspiring but inconclusive rookie year as a "low floor, high ceiling" prospect. He averaged just 2.2 yards per carry, but had only 27 rushing attempts. Ingram, though, is an above-average athlete with a 4.53 40 and 122-inch broad jump at 221 pounds. And he doesn't face a lot of competition in the Arizona backfield behind injury-prone James Conner with only Corey Clement, Ty'Son Williams and undrafted free agent Emari Demercado with whom to contend. A strong camp should solidify his spot as Conner's backup and put him in line for more work than he had last season.
- Round 15, Pick 296 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 260 - 2022 Rank: 307
Although he was probably overmatched as a WR3 and has limited big-play ability in general, Palmer provides the Chargers with good, versatile depth behind the lead trio of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and rookie first-round pick Quentin Johnston. Now in a more suitable swing backup role, Palmer's efficiency should improve with lessened exposure. This is all to say that Palmer's fantasy value is on the downswing with Johnston on the team, but it should make the Chargers offense better overall. After drawing 107 targets on 870 snaps last year, something more in the range of 50 targets on 500 snaps should be expected if all of Allen, Williams and Johnston stay healthy. It's even conceivable that Palmer could lose some snaps and/or targets to fourth-round pick Derius Davis. That said, Palmer would be the first man up if any of Allen, Williams or Johnston should miss time. The veterans Allen and Williams both have lengthy injury histories, so Palmer has high upside as far as the backup category goes.
- Round 16, Pick 316 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 236 - 2022 Rank: 36
After averaging 21 made field goals between 2019-2021, the Seahawks offense finally had a successful year. As a result, Myers connected on 34 field goals, which was the most he has had in any of his eight seasons. Although he's had a couple down years from an accuracy standpoint, Myers has made at least 91.7 percent of his field goals in three of the last five years. He just signed a four-year contract, so he has job security. And if the Seahawks continue their positive direction on offense, he should be a top-eight kicking option.
- Round 17, Pick 336 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1118 - 2022 Rank: 236
Jones took a significant step forward in his sophomore season as measured by both skill and role. He increased his snap count from 452 to 693, and he should take another step forward in that area after the offseason departure of Bobby Wagner. Jones also proved he knew what to do with that playing time, notching 114 tackles (66 solo), two passes defended, an interception, and a forced fumble. Heading into 2023, Jones will be asked to lead a young and unproven linebacker corps in Los Angeles. While that will prove to be significant pressure on a third-year player, it also gives him the chance to take another step forward and perhaps replicate Wagner's stat line from last season.
- Round 18, Pick 356 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 392 - 2022 Rank: 195
- Round 19, Pick 376 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 553 - 2022 Rank: 377
- Round 20, Pick 396 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1186 - 2022 Rank: -
Campbell is an off-ball linebacker, which made him something of a curious chance at 18th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, there are certain athletic traits that he possesses that simply can't be taught - highlighted by a 4.65 40-yard dash, 128-inch broad jump, and a 6.74-second three-cone drill - so that isn't to say he won't be productive. His draft capital also all but ensures that he'll get regular reps among the Lions' linebacker corps immediately. After that, nothing is guaranteed. It will be interesting to see how Campbell adjusts to the NFL after he didn't post particularly compelling numbers in run defense or as a pass rusher while at Iowa. Specifically, he never recorded more than one sack in a season and never had more than 5.5 tackles for loss in a single season.
- Round 21, Pick 416 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1679 - 2022 Rank: 409
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
