In the Rokhed NFL Dynasty league, the Jaguars found themselves with the 12th pick in the draft, and boy did they make the most of it. With 21 rounds to work with, they managed to assemble a team that has the potential to achieve a record of 2-12-0, projected to finish a dismal 17th out of 20 teams. It's safe to say that the Jaguars' draft grade of D accurately reflects the level of excitement and anticipation surrounding their selections.
While the Jaguars did have a glimmer of hope with their best pick, Hunter Henry, who was drafted at 172 despite an ADP of 132, it was overshadowed by their worst pick, Zach Charbonnet, who was selected at 112 despite an ADP of 121. It seems the Jaguars have a knack for defying expectations, but not in a good way. To add insult to injury, they decided to draft not one, not two, but three players from the same team: Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley, and Evan Engram. Maybe they're hoping for some sort of team synergy, or maybe they just really like the team's colors. Either way, it's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for them.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 12 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 72 - 2022 Rank: 7
Lawrence made a second-year leap under new coach Doug Pederson, posting a 25:8 TD:INT after mustering a 12:17 mark during his forgettable rookie season. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft enters his third season as an established top-10 fantasy QB, but Lawrence's ceiling is higher than that, as he still has a few obvious areas for further improvement. Lawrence's 7.0 YPA in 2022 ranked a pedestrian 18th, and the underrated runner mustered only 291 yards on the ground after rushing for 334 as a rookie, though Lawrence increased his rushing TD total from two to five. He'll also be working with an improved supporting cast in 2023, as the Jaguars added WR Calvin Ridley - who had 1,374 receiving yards for the Falcons in 2020 but sat out 2022 entirely due to a gambling suspension - while retaining their top four skill position players from last season (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne). Playing in the underwhelming AFC South could be both a blessing and a curse for Lawrence. While the Jaguars are favored to repeat as division champs, they will likely spend the majority of their six games against the Titans, Colts and Texans playing from a lead, thus potentially limiting Lawrence's volume after he attempted 670 passes last year - sixth-most in the NFL.
- Round 2, Pick 32 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 81 - 2022 Rank: 172
If not for Russell Wilson's struggles and an ankle injury that cost Jeudy two games there would probably be more talk about how impressive Jeudy was in 2022. The former Alabama star is still just 24, yet last year he produced far above the Denver passing game base line while leading the team in receiving volume. The Broncos passing game completed 63.8 percent of its targets at 7.4 yards per target, but Jeudy finished with 67 receptions for 972 yards on 100 targets (67.0 percent catch rate, 9.7 yards per target). With numbers like that, it's no surprise the Broncos exercised the fifth-year option on Jeudy's rookie contract. If Jeudy can produce like that during a disaster season for Wilson then it makes sense to project a breakout season for Jeudy in 2023, especially if new coach Sean Payton can coax improvement out of Wilson. Even if Wilson doesn't improve, though, Jeudy has already shown an ability to produce despite a poor surrounding offense.
- Round 3, Pick 52 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 37 - 2022 Rank: 177
In the current iteration of the Seahawks offense, Metcalf isn't quite the explosive downfield threat that he was earlier in his career. Last year, he saw a career low 11.6 yards per reception while posting just a 10th-percentile yardage after the catch rate. After being targeted 129 times in each of the two prior seasons, Metcalf was targeted 141 times last year leading to a career high 90 catches. To this point, 2020 is looking like his career year, when he had 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. As long as the team continues to roll with Geno Smith as quarterback, it's unlikely that this becomes a team that consistently attacks downfield, which will limit Metcalf's upside. but his target volume should continue to help him be a strong weekly fantasy option. Based on volume and talent, he should remain in the top-15 conversation at wide receiver.
- Round 4, Pick 72 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 40 - 2022 Rank: 1483
Prior to sitting out most of the 2021 season to address mental health issues and subsequently being suspended for the 2022 campaign due to gambling, Ridley had established himself as an elite wide receiver. In his last full season, Ridley posted 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns with the Falcons. He'll likely take some time to get back up to game speed after the extended layoff, but Ridley has the skills to become the favorite target for rising star quarterback Trevor Lawrence in a Jacksonville passing game that also features WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, as well as TE Evan Engram. The 28-year-old Ridley should still be in his physical prime, but returning to elite form after an extended layoff isn't easy. For instance, former standout RB Le'Veon Bell was never the same after sitting out the 2018 season due to a contract dispute.
- Round 5, Pick 92 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 79 - 2022 Rank: 279
Engram earned a franchise tag this spring and then a three-year, $42 million contract this summer, cashing in big after his first season in Jacksonville concluded with career highs for catches (73) and receiving yards (766). The 2017 first-round pick mostly struggled in five seasons with the Giants, dropping 17 passes in his last two years with the team that drafted him, but Engram cut his drop total down to five with the Jaguars in 2022. Engram's 4.42 speed fits well into a Jacksonville offense predicated around quick passes by QB Trevor Lawrence. But Engram is undersized for a tight end at 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, which helps explain why he's surpassed last season's total of four TDs only once in his six-year career. Case in point, Engram tied for fourth among TEs with 98 targets last year, but only nine of those came in the red zone, which ranked outside the top 20 at the position. Wide receivers Christian Kirk (133) and Zay Jones (121) both had more targets than Engram last season, and with WR Calvin Ridley now joining the offense there are a lot of players deserving of Lawrence's attention. Engram's 2023 target count could decline.
- Round 6, Pick 112 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 113 - 2022 Rank: -
Even though the Seahawks had a strong rookie season from Kenneth Walker last year, the team used their second-round draft pick for the second year in a row to add Charbonnet. While in college, Charbonnet forced many missed tackles while also having the power to break tackles as well. In addition, he caught 37 passes and proved to be a solid receiver. It's possible that he was drafted to add depth to a thin backfield, but Seattle may also want Charbonnet to be a big factor in their backfield. It's likely that Walker has the edge for lead work going into the season, though Charbonnet should see significant work each week. However, if Charbonnet outplays Walker, don't be surprised if coach Pete Carroll changes the running back roles.
- Round 7, Pick 132 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 135 - 2022 Rank: -
The NFL hasn't seen a running back of Achane's undersized frame succeed as more than a gadget player since Warrick Dunn in 1997. On the other hand, smaller wide receivers have begun finding real success in the modern league, and Achane is a more than capable pass-catcher. It shouldn't be overlooked, though, that he did hold up to significant volume at Texas A&M. Neither of Raheem Mostert nor Jeff Wilson is a slouch, so it's not as though the rookie-third-round pick would have a clear path to workhorse status even if he did boast prototypical size. Excitement over Achane stems less from projections of the volume and more from what his tools and 4.32-40 speed might accomplish in coach Mike McDaniel's scheme. Schemed plays ought to be regularly featured for Achane, and if he's able to earn sizeable weekly volume in Miami's backfield timeshare, his production could surprise.
- Round 8, Pick 152 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 167 - 2022 Rank: 140
McKinnon's ability to improvise with Patrick Mahomes while phasing out of blitz pickup or play-action makes him difficult for defenses to keep track of, especially the longer a play goes on. The Chiefs offensive line is excellent and Mahomes might be the most dangerous improviser at quarterback the league has ever seen, so Mahomes extends plays regularly enough for McKinnon to make a fantasy impact even as a backup. It's not clear how locked in McKinnon might be relative to his 2022 workload - Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are both capable of poaching passing-down snaps - but in 2022 McKinnon just about had the Kansas City running back receiving production to himself. As much as it seems unlikely that McKinnon would play more than the 497 snaps he did in 2022, it's also not obvious why the Chiefs would scale it back too much. With that said, if McKinnon is to be a useful fantasy asset in 2023 then he'll likely need to make it happen as a receiver, so he can't afford to lose any passing-down snaps.
- Round 9, Pick 157 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 352 - 2022 Rank: -
Mayer probably shouldn't have fallen to the Raiders at the 35th pick. As much as it was fair for NFL teams to find some concern in his athletic testing (4.7-second 40 at 249 pounds), it was never a good basis for letting Mayer fall out of the first round. If Mayer had run any faster, he would have been worth a top-15 pick - his barely disappointing combine was a basis to have Mayer fall out of the top-15, not out of the first round. Dalton Kincaid wasn't nearly as good of a collegiate tight end as Mayer, and Sam LaPorta probably was worse too, yet both players went ahead of Mayer. Mayer will likely be a steal for the Raiders as a result - think a better version of Zach Ertz - so the question of when Mayer breaks out as a fantasy asset might be pending how soon he can overtake the veteran Austin Hooper. Mayer is a good bet to skip the rookie-year struggles that most tight ends face (Mayer caught 42 passes as a true freshman at Notre Dame), but Hooper could be just enough of an obstacle to delay Mayer's full arrival as a fantasy option by a year.
- Round 10, Pick 172 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 136 - 2022 Rank: 530
Henry's regression in his second season with the Patriots followed a trend set by the entire Mac Jones-led offense. After producing nine touchdowns in 2021, Henry scoring just twice in 2022 can be viewed as emblematic of New England's entire disappointing season. New offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien could spark some life into the passing game, though the fresh arrival Mike Gesicki could threaten Henry's domination of offensive snaps. On the other hand, Henry and Gesicki would make a dangerous combo in two-TE formations, and O'Brien is no stranger to scheming up 12-man personnel rotations. In all, Henry figures to remain a TD-dependent option for fantasy production, so his success will depend largely on Jones bouncing back after throwing just 14 scores last year.
- Round 11, Pick 192 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 126 - 2022 Rank: -
The Titans picked Spears in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft after an outstanding college career at Tulane that included 2,910 yards and 31 touchdowns on 427 carries (6.8 YPC) spread in 33 games. Elite production in the American Athletic Conference is far from a guarantee of success against NFL-level competition, especially since Spears' athletic profile is nothing special; he has 4.54 speed in a 5-foot-11, 201-pound frame. He may not be able to handle heavy workloads consistently at that size, but Spears probably won't get a chance to find that out for a few years, as workhorse Derrick Henry is firmly entrenched atop Tennessee's RB depth chart. Spears is the favorite to snag the primary backup role and begin his career operating in a change-of-pace capacity behind Henry. His main competition for the No. 2 spot is 2022 fourth-round pick Hassan Haskins, who had just 93 rushing yards as a rookie and was recently arrested following a domestic dispute.
DEF - Round 12, Pick 212 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 216 - 2022 Rank: 67
Coach Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme dragged Miami to a playoff appearance last season, but the need for improvements on defense were obvious. Enter DC extraordinaire Vic Fangio, who promises not only to unlock Bradley Chubb (traded to the Dolphins last November), but provide a salve across the board. Chubb isn't the only name of note up front, with the presence of 2021 first-rounder Jaelen Phillip also being notable. Free-agency additions LB David Long and S DeShon Elliott arrive to reinforce returning starters LB Jerome Baker and S Jevon Holland, giving Miami a well-rounded core before even accounting for the team's standout CB duo. Trading for CB Jalen Ramsey to pair with perennial Pro Bowler Xavien Howard puts legitimate top-5 upside within range for this defensive unit.
- Round 13, Pick 217 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 183 - 2022 Rank: 158
Wilson re-signs with Miami to spend a sixth straight season in coach Mike McDaniel's scheme. Four of those years were in San Francisco, where Wilson proved himself as a more than capable rotational option. Durability issues have remained constant as well, though. Wilson hasn't managed to suit up for double-digit games since 2020, and he's only managed that feat twice in his NFL career. After joining the Dolphins mid-season via trade from San Francisco last year, Wilson established himself in a roughly even timeshare alongside Raheem Mostert, though he was the volume leader prior to injuring his hip. Miami could proceed with an identical layout to open the 2023 slate, with Mostert also having re-signed this offseason, but rookie third-round pick De'Von Achane reportedly began pushing for opportunities early in OTAs. Wilson is a solid pass-catcher and showed elite efficiency last season (5.1 YPC), but he'll open this year on injured reserve and thus is set to miss at least four games.
- Round 14, Pick 218 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1294 - 2022 Rank: 565
- Round 15, Pick 232 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 580 - 2022 Rank: 316
- Round 16, Pick 252 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 166 - 2022 Rank: 147
Jones looked set to take a step forward after a promising rookie season, but in Year 2 he instead regressed across the board statistically, even being briefly benched for Bailey Zappe. Part of the blame can be placed on the functionality of last year's offensive coaching staff and the high-ankle sprain that forced Jones to the sideline for three contests, but finishing with only 14 TD passes in 14 games can't be overlooked. Now joined by pass-catchers Juju-Smith Schuster and Mike Gesicki, who will hope to make up for the departure of Jakobi Meyers, Jones will need to make the most of the 2023 campaign if he's going to entrench himself as New England's starter of the future. Swapping out the combination of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge for new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien is perhaps the biggest upgrade of the offseason, though Zappe could loom as a threat should Jones falter early. If Jones is to succeed, it may have to be with efficiency rather than volume due to his pass-catching corps, and the presence of Rhamondre Stevenson should O'Brien choose to lean on the run game to complement coach Bill Belichick's defense. While that may not set Jones up to light the fantasy world aflame, regular-season wins might not be as hard to come by for the Patriots as in 2022.
- Round 17, Pick 272 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1224 - 2022 Rank: 967
- Round 18, Pick 292 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 733 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 19, Pick 312 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1151 - 2022 Rank: 237
The Bills spent the 16th overall pick on Edmunds in the 2018 draft, and he delivered five seasons of more than 100 tackles. In need of an overhaul at linebacker, the Bears signed Edmunds to a four-year, $72 million contract this offseason. He'll be relied upon as a centerpiece of the rebuilt Bears defense, and the only potential thing that would hold him back from that is his ability to stay on the field. Though he hasn't suffered any major injuries, Edmunds has played in every game in a season only once in his career. Even so, he's a safe bet to pile up a boatload of tackles, his primary appeal for IDP formats. While he's never tallied more than two sacks in a campaign, Edmunds has enough athleticism to be strong in coverage and he's managed at least seven pass breakups in three separate campaigns.
- Round 20, Pick 352 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 496 - 2022 Rank: 201
- Round 21, Pick 372 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2490 - 2022 Rank: 97
York was a fourth-round pick last April but didn't look the part come autumn, converting only 75 percent of his field-goal attempts. He even missed three kicks from inside 40 yards, and his struggles weren't just limited to December when the weather in Cleveland was a factor. The Browns were ready to give York another chance this year but then decided against it in late August after a rough preseason. They waived York on Aug. 28 and traded for Dustin Hopkins to replace him.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
