In the highly anticipated Rokhed NFL Dynasty draft, the Falcons took flight with a solid but unremarkable performance. With a draft grade of C+, they managed to secure the 5th spot in the draft order, but unfortunately, their picks failed to make a lasting impression. Projected to finish 7th with a record of 8-6-0, the Falcons seem destined for a season of mediocrity. However, hope flickers like a distant candle as they prepare to unleash their projected points of 1685.98 on the unsuspecting league.
While the Falcons' draft had its highs and lows, one shining moment came when they snagged T.J. Hockenson at pick 105, a steal considering his ADP of 42. This unexpected gem promises to be a valuable asset for the team. On the other hand, the Falcons stumbled with their worst pick, Romeo Doubs, who was selected at pick 125 despite having an ADP of 129. It seems the Falcons were a bit too optimistic about this player's potential. Additionally, the Falcons took a bold approach by drafting four players from the same team, Parris Campbell, Isaiah Hodgins, Graham Gano, and Dexter Lawrence II. Will this strategy lead to a harmonious symphony of success or a cacophony of disappointment? Only time will tell, but one thing's for sure: the Falcons are ready to spread their wings and take on the Rokhed NFL Dynasty with gusto!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 5 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 17 - 2022 Rank: 3
Hurts ascended to elite status in 2022, finishing as QB3 for fantasy purposes while posting MVP-quality numbers and leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl. The improvements he made as a passer during his first two seasons in the league paid dividends after the team added A.J. Brown to a receiving corps already headlined by DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Hurts emerged as one of the NFL's most accurate passers in his third campaign. It's his running ability, however, that takes his production to another level. Nick Sirianni's scheme is designed around his game-breaking ability on the ground, and Hurts' 13 rushing touchdowns were the second most in NFL history by a quarterback. While it's hard to bank on that kind of record-setting performance repeating itself, the league elected not to legislate away the team's "tush push" rugby scrum approach to gaining short yards and getting the ball across the goal line, so double-digit rushing TDs could well be his floor. Hurts may not match the volume or pure passing upside of the likes of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, but at 24 years old, his best days should still be ahead of him.
- Round 2, Pick 25 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 228 - 2022 Rank: 378
Campbell played more games in 2022 than in his first three NFL seasons combined, but the Colts' quarterback issues kept him from truly capitalizing on his good health last season. The 2019 second-round pick still has enticing size and athleticism and posted solid numbers while working primarily out of the slot, earning a one-year, $4.7 million contract from the Giants this offseason. Campbell will have plenty of competition for targets on his new team, and if he doesn't establish some early chemistry with quarterback Daniel Jones he could become a forgotten man in an offense that also features holdovers Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson, plus new tight end Darren Waller and 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt.
- Round 3, Pick 45 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 33 - 2022 Rank: 292
Decline will come for Allen some day, and perhaps as soon as the 2023 season. There were no signs in 2022, though. The early-season hamstring injury was a major frustration, but upon his return Allen pretty much torched in the final eight weeks. Allen finished the year with 66 catches for 752 yards on 89 targets and 505 snaps - an extremely high target rate and with exceptional efficiency. To draw that many targets per snap and still provide a catch rate of 74.2 percent at 8.5 yards per target is dominance, and not the kind of thing declining players are known for. Age-related decline can be harsh and sudden, so it's an understandable concern with Allen now 31 years old, but his recent play was some of the best of his career. The Chargers will remain a pass-happy offense in 2023 and there's even some hope of improvement with new coordinator Kellen Moore replacing the disappointing Joe Lombardi. Based on all material evidence, Allen should once again be a good bet for 100-plus catches.
- Round 4, Pick 65 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 142 - 2022 Rank: 79
Cook had strong season numbers last year, but as the season wore on, he began to look like a running back in decline. Although he started the season with six games between 90 and 119 rushing yards in Weeks 1 through 10, he only had two games with at least 72 yards in his last nine games (including playoffs ). His 69 rushing yards per game was his lowest total since 2018. He also lost his explosive element. He only rushed for more than 20 yards on 1.8 percent of his carries. After the Vikings released him in June, Cook signed with the Jets in August to provide depth behind Breece Hall. But Hall is coming off a torn ACL and might not be ready for Week 1. If not, then Cook would step into the lead-back role. Even when Hall is healthy, Cook should siphon a fair amount of touches. But Cook's best days are likely behind him, and a committee role would lower his fantasy value along with his declining skills.
- Round 5, Pick 85 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 19 - 2022 Rank: 95
After missing his entire rookie season due to a Lisfranc injury, Etienne looked healthy and explosive in his return to action in 2022. Trevor Lawrence's Clemson teammate and fellow 2021 first-round pick averaged 5.1 yards per carry and posted 1,441 scrimmage yards while finding the end zone five times last season. Etienne still has room for improvement when it comes to focus and consistency. He had five fumbles and three drops last year while struggling to churn out reliable small gains to keep the Jaguars ahead of the chains in between his big runs. Etienne heads into 2023 as the clear lead option in Jacksonville's backfield, but if Etienne doesn't fix his weaknesses, that could open the door for 2023 third-round pick Tank Bigsby to cut into his workload. Bigsby might get the nod in goal-line situations, when fumbles are most costly. If Jacksonville can take another step forward after winning the weak AFC South with a 9-8 record, the Jags could find themselves playing with a lead more in 2023, providing Etienne with more rushing opportunities.
- Round 6, Pick 105 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 29 - 2022 Rank: 186
Hockenson could become the No. 2 receiver for the Vikings in 2023. Adam Thielen is no longer on the team, though Minnesota used a first-round pick to select wide receiver Jordan Addison. It's possible that Addison is the second option right away. But Hockenson was a big part of the offense last year while gaining valuable chemistry with Kirk Cousins. Hockenson was heavily targeted since being acquired by the Vikings in the middle of last season. He had at least eight targets in seven of his last nine games before the meaningless week 18 contest. However, the young tight end posted fewer than 60 yards in seven of his last nine games. And his two big games for Minnesota both came against the New York Giants, one of which was in the playoffs. Overall, Hockenson should maintain an excellent scoring floor, which is rare at the tight end position. That said, he has a limited ceiling based on last year second-half performance and the addition of Addison. Hockenson's potential scoring floor will have some fantasy managers projecting Hockenson as a top-three tight end.
- Round 7, Pick 125 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 97 - 2022 Rank: 509
Doubs had a lot of opportunities early in the season when the Packers were aggressively trying to find an answer at receiver to complement Allen Lazard. Doubs impressed in some game, but often looked like the rookie that he was. It didn't help that Aaron Rodgers probably lost confidence in him from time to time. But due to a lack of weapons, Rodgers had to keep going back to him. Doubs then dealt with a high-ankle sprain that cost him time. If Doubs is to take a big second-year leap, it will be with a new quarterback in Jordan Love. If Love struggles, Doubs will as well, though he has an excellent opportunity to be a starting outside receiver across from Christian Watson, with Lazard joining Rodgers in New York. Doubs' season likely will hinge on how quickly Love develops.
- Round 8, Pick 145 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 145 - 2022 Rank: 682
Mitchell is an incredibly talented running back. He had an excellent 89th percentile broken tackle rate, and when he was in a rotation of Christian McCaffrey, he often piled up significant yardage in limited opportunities. However, he was injured three separate times last year. And that came after a rookie season in which he missed time as well. Obviously, injuries are difficult to predict, but the amount of injuries he's had in such a short time makes him a significant injury risk. And the fact that he was getting hurt in a backup role is even more concerning. If he was able to stay healthy and had to take over the starting role for McCaffrey for a period of time, he would be a strong fantasy option. However, Mitchell carries quite a bit of risk.
- Round 9, Pick 165 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 257 - 2022 Rank: 144
Hill remained in the hybrid role he's been in for years. But last year, his primary job was running the ball. He threw 19 passes and caught nine balls, but he rushed 96 times. HIll was excellent as a runner, averaging a career-high 6.0 yards per carry. Hill will realize his best fantasy value in leagues where he is TE-eligible. But going into his age-33 season, it's fair to question whether he'll enter the decline phase of his career. However, he didn't show those signs last year. Consistent usage is probably the bigger problem, especially if new Saint QB Derek Carr stays healthy. Hill could see an increase in work if Alvin Kamara receives league discipline based on his July 31 court case from a battery charge. Hill is an intriguing upside pick should you miss out on the more standard, Top-10 tight end options.
DEF - Round 10, Pick 185 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 208 - 2022 Rank: 28
The one good stat from the Saints defense last year was that they allowed the seventh-fewest points in the league. They registered the fifth-most sacks but the third-fewest interceptions. This should remain a 'good enough' defense from an NFL standpoint, as they are decent in all phases. The Saints will look to retain their solid pass rush after adding a pair of top-40 picks drafted to bolster the line. If they hit, the whole defense could see a big jump. Aside from Marshon Lattimore, the CB room is hit or miss. They should be fine against limited offenses, but they'll likely have issues when playing the better ones. Their ability to pressure the QB puts them in the discussion as a top-10 fantasy defense.
- Round 11, Pick 205 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 220 - 2022 Rank: 673
Going back to college, injuries have been an issue for Moore. After missing three games in 2021, he missed nine more last year. In 2022, it was hamstring, knee and groin injuries that limited him. In the offseason, he had surgery on both sides of his groin to repair a sports hernia, and he also had surgery on his pinky. When he was on the field, he looked like the real deal. He posted a 93rd percentile yards-after-catch rate, and he recorded 49-94 yards in five of his last six games. The injury history is too significant to ignore, but the same argument can be made for his talent. As long as the draft cost is minimal, he's definitely worth a late-round pick in the hopes that he stays healthy. and with him playing largely in the slot, he may be the one Cardinal skill position player that's immune to weak quarterback play.
- Round 12, Pick 225 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 194 - 2022 Rank: 462
Hodgins had only four catches in his first two NFL seasons with the Bills and had trouble escaping Buffalo's practice squad in the first half of 2022 before finally being cut loose. Claimed off waivers by the injury-ravaged Giants, the Oregon State product quickly climbed the depth chart once he got his chance and emerged as Daniel Jones' most dependable target. Hodgins was especially impressive down the stretch, catching TDs in five of six games through the end of the regular season and into the playoffs before capping that run with an eight-game, 105-yard performance in a wild-card win over the Vikings. New York added plenty of competition for targets in the offseason, bringing in Parris Campbell from the Colts and tight end Darren Waller from the Raiders before drafting Jalin Hyatt in the third round, and a healthy Wan'Dale Robinson could also make an impact. The chemistry Hodgins established with Jones last year should serve him well though, and he figures to maintain a key role in the Giants' passing attack.
- Round 13, Pick 245 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 149 - 2022 Rank: 923
Love is an unknown commodity for fantasy football this year. He's had 83 pass attempts during his short time in the league. Love will be taking over an offense that has questions at tight end and wide receiver. It's possible that Christian Watson will be a star, but it's also possible that he's just an outstanding deep threat. At 6-4, 219, Love has demonstrated decent mobility. That could give Love a stable rushing floor while the passing game rounds into form, though a larger sample size of rushing attempts would be nice. Last year, Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst seasons of his career. Whether that was due to decline or the talent that surrounded him is uncertain. Also, Green Bay has been a run-heavy team for the past couple years, and their quarterback pass attempts have been below league average. Drafting Love as a boom-or-bust option makes sense, due to the uncertainty that surrounds him. He also could be a player who gets better as the season moves forward and he gets more experience.
- Round 14, Pick 265 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 266 - 2022 Rank: 379
James was the beneficiary of Giants' injuries woes at wide receiver last year, as he turned a one-year deal into 57 catches, 569 yards and four touchdowns on 70 targets. That production didn't land him a big free-agent deal, though, as he signed with Kansas City on a one-year, $1.2 million contract. But with the Chiefs he joins another wide-receiver room that is not particularly impressive. Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling top the depth chart, but James likely has a shot at carving out a role out of the slot, which would give him fantasy value in deeper formats.
- Round 15, Pick 285 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1423 - 2022 Rank: 132
- Round 16, Pick 305 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1359 - 2022 Rank: 249
- Round 17, Pick 325 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1185 - 2022 Rank: 956
Leonard was on the way to establishing himself as one of the most well-rounded middle linebackers in the league. Across his first four relatively healthy seasons in the league, he posted 15 sacks, 30 passes defended, and 11 interceptions. That doesn't account for the fact that he also had over 120 tackles in each of those campaigns. Unfortunately, both his long and short-term future in the league may be in jeopardy. Leonard had two surgeries on his neck and back in the span of roughly five months in 2022. That limited him to only three games last year and has also kept him off the field during off-season team activities in 2023. Both Leonard and the team have publicly stated they hope he is available to begin the regular season, but his potential IDP value will depend entirely on his health outlook come training camp.
- Round 18, Pick 345 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 299 - 2022 Rank: 644
After four years with the Jets, Berrios chose to stay in the AFC East by signing a one-year deal with the Dolphins this offseason. The Dolphins are set at the top-two WR spots with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Berrios could claim the No. 3 job. Berrios will have to beat out Cedrick Wilson and Robbie Chosen for the slot role, but neither is all that formidable. Running routes out of the slot could give Berrios some fantasy value in deeper leagues. Berrios is also a quality return man and likely the favorite to handle both punt and kickoff returns.
- Round 19, Pick 365 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 288 - 2022 Rank: 53
After being a roughly average kicker through his first eight years in the NFL, Gano made some adjustments and has been one of the league's most accurate and reliable legs since 2017. His fantasy value has wavered along with the efficiency of the offenses supporting him, but Brian Daboll turned the Giants into a solid unit last season, and the New York offense could take another step forward in 2023 if quarterback Daniel Jones continues his development and takes advantage of an improved collection of receiving options. Gano has seen either 32 or 33 field-goal attempts in each of his three seasons with the team, but there are reasons to believe his opportunities will increase this year.
- Round 20, Pick 385 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1795 - 2022 Rank: 306
DEF - Round 21, Pick 405 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 247 - 2022 Rank: 39
Of the Colts' seven Pro Bowlers in 2021, three played on defense. All three of DT DeForest Buckner, LB Shaquille Leonard and CB Kenny Moore are still on the team, but Leonard and Moore both missed extensive time due to injury in 2022. Indianapolis drafted CB Julius Brents in the second round to replace the departing Stephon Gilmore, but the biggest key to improvement on defense may be out of DC's Gus Bradley's control. The Colts gave up the third-most PPG (25.1) last year despite being in the middle of the pack in yards allowed due to the team's turnovers and struggles on offense. Potential improvement on the offensive side spearheaded by rookie QB Anthony Richardson and a healthy Jonathan Taylor -- if the latter's feud with the front office is sorted out -- could lead to a fresher and more effective Indianapolis defense in 2023.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
