In the Vintage Football League draft, the New Orleans Saints found themselves in the middle of the pack with the 3rd overall pick. Unfortunately, their draft performance left much to be desired, earning them a disappointing F grade. With a projected finish of 8th place and a lackluster projected record of 6-7-2, it seems the Saints may be in for a challenging season.
One of the few bright spots for the Saints was their selection of Chris Olave at pick 31, slightly ahead of his ADP of 29. This pick was praised as the team's best selection, offering a glimmer of hope amidst the overall disappointment. However, the Saints' draft took a turn for the worse with their first-round pick, Derek Carr, who was chosen at an astonishingly high pick 3, despite having an ADP of 130. It seems the Saints may have reached a bit too far for this player, leaving fans scratching their heads.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 3 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 117 - 2022 Rank: 72
Carr threw 24 or fewer TD passes in five of the last six years. He also has been held to fewer than 29 TD passes in nine of 10 seasons with a career high of 32 in 2015. It speaks volumes that the Raiders basically sent him home for the last three games of last season, eventually letting him walk with no real backup plan or compensation in return. Joey Bosa called it out a couple of years ago when he said that Carr folds under pressure. Last year, Carr had good blocking from his tackles, though the interior was a mess. Now with the Saints, he'll have solid RT play from Ryan Ramczyk. But unless the other linemen make jumps in previous effectiveness, this line will be a problem for Carr. Expect the Saints to hope their defense can keep them competitive. Also, look for a slow pace on offense with an emphasis on the running game when possible. The downfield passing could be a problem due to the OL, so Carr will need to have success in the short and intermediate areas. He'll likely be a borderline top-24 QB.
- Round 2, Pick 17 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 50 - 2022 Rank: 143
Much of the discussion surrounding Kamara the past couple years has focused on a potential suspension, and the NFL finally made a decision in early August with the announcement of a three-game ban. Otherwise, Kamara is no longer the top-three running back he was the first few years of his career, though he's still recorded at least 1,300 scrimmage yards in each of his six seasons. The past two years he got more carries (240 and 223) but fewer targets (67, 77) after starting his career with four straight seasons of at least 97 targets and fewer than 200 carries. Much of that was related to the Saints transitioning to a run-first offense after Drew Brees' retirement, and it's possible Kamara shifts back toward more receiving work after the team signed a veteran QB (Derek Carr) and a 224-pound RB (Jamaal Williams) and spent a third-round pick on RB Kendre Miller. Less likely is Kamara recovering the TD prowess and remarkable per-touch efficiency of his early years, in part because he's lost a step and in part because Williams and QB/TE Taysom Hill figure to get most of the goal-line carries. There's still potential for Kamara to be an every-week fantasy starter once he completes the three-game suspension, but a high-end-RB1 ceiling is no longer within his range of outcomes.
- Round 3, Pick 31 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 20 - 2022 Rank: 176
Olave's rookie situation was relatively solid when compared to many of the top rookies wideouts who were stuck with terrible quarterback play. Andy Dalton played capably and understood the importance of getting the ball to his star receiver. As a result, Olave never had fewer than 41 yards in a game. However, after a strong start to the season in which Olave had at least 80 yards in four of his first 10 games, he didn't surpass 65 yards in any of his last five contests. Even though he had 13 catches of more than 20 yards (and four of those catches gained at least 40 yards), he only had a 17th-percentile yards after the catch rate. That is something he'll need to improve on in 2023. New QB Derek Carr, who's expected to play behind a weak pass-protecting OL, could hinder Olave's downfield potential. Carr will likely need to pound Olave with targets in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Olave is already a top-20 receiver, but if he can work well with Carr, he could end up in the top 15. If Olave's QB showed more big-play potential, the sophomore wideout would be considered a top-10 WR.
- Round 4, Pick 45 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 84 - 2022 Rank: 318
Thomas played just 10 games the last three seasons. And now he's entering his age-30 season. In each of the three games he played last year, he caught at least five passes, posted 49-65 yards and scored three times. He still showed he could run routes, but he was often catching the ball and going right down without producing yardage after the catch. Is it possible he regains health and moves back into a lead role? Yes. Is it something that the recent past has shown that it is a possibility? That's a hard "no." Regardless of how good Thomas looks, it's also possible that second-year receiver Chris Olave may have taken on the mantle as the Saints' top receiver. The later Thomas falls in drafts, the more the injury and risk ratios are reduced.
- Round 5, Pick 59 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 130 - 2022 Rank: 221
Shaheed signed with the Saints in October last year and performed extremely well. Despite being targeted 34 times in 12 games, he posted 488 yards. His excellent speed helped him make four plays of at least 40 yards (and another two plays of at least 20 yards). At first, he was primarily a deep threat, running 40 percent of his snaps from the slot. But after the Week 14 bye, he went from averaging less than two targets per game to almost five targets in the last four games. He also was being used as a more versatile receiver down the stretch. His yards per target in each of the last three games was 10.3-13.2 Projecting Shaheed for 2023 isn't easy. He had the advantage of catching the league off guard. And then when his role changed a bit, he had another advantage. Also, with Derek Carr at QB and expected to play behind a poor pass-protecting OL, Shaheed may not be a huge downfield factor.
- Round 6, Pick 73 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 134 - 2022 Rank: 186
Johnson was a converted wide receiver when entering the NFL three years ago. Although some fantasy players were excited about his potential, he needed time to fully make the transition. Last year, he finally had an opportunity, and he took advantage of it. He turned 65 targets into a 500-yard season with seven touchdowns. Although his seasonal numbers weren't special, Johnson was a high-floor player for much of the year. He posted at least 40 yards eight times over 16 games. He was a regular visitor to the end zone in Weeks 7-15, when he scored all of his touchdowns for the season in a seven-game span. He also proved to be a big-play producer, as eight of his 42 catches resulted in gains of at least 20 yards. With Derek Carr under center and likely dealing with protection issues, Johnson may directly benefit from the QB's need to get the ball out quickly. Johnson has the potential to finish as a top-12 TE.
- Round 7, Pick 87 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 248 - 2022 Rank: 1031
DEF - Round 8, Pick 101 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 208 - 2022 Rank: 66
The one good stat from the Saints defense last year was that they allowed the seventh-fewest points in the league. They registered the fifth-most sacks but the third-fewest interceptions. This should remain a 'good enough' defense from an NFL standpoint, as they are decent in all phases. The Saints will look to retain their solid pass rush after adding a pair of top-40 picks drafted to bolster the line. If they hit, the whole defense could see a big jump. Aside from Marshon Lattimore, the CB room is hit or miss. They should be fine against limited offenses, but they'll likely have issues when playing the better ones. Their ability to pressure the QB puts them in the discussion as a top-10 fantasy defense.
- Round 9, Pick 115 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 10, Pick 129 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 11, Pick 143 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 12, Pick 157 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 13, Pick 171 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 14, Pick 185 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 15, Pick 199 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 16, Pick 213 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
