In a draft that left fans scratching their heads, the New England Patriots managed to defy all expectations by earning a solid F grade. With the 12th pick in the draft order, they had plenty of opportunities to make a splash, but instead, they seemed to be playing a different game altogether. Their projected record of 8-6-1 may seem respectable, but it's clear that their path to the playoffs will be an uphill battle. With a projected finish of 5th, they'll need a miracle to rise above the mediocrity that seems to be their destiny.
One of the few bright spots for the Patriots was their best pick, Rhamondre Stevenson, who was drafted at 26, beating his ADP of 31. Perhaps this player will be the saving grace for a team that seems to be drowning in disappointment. On the other hand, their worst pick, Mac Jones, was taken at 12, a staggering difference from his ADP of 119. It's clear that the Patriots have a knack for defying logic and going against the grain. With a whopping eight players drafted from the same team, they're clearly banking on some sort of team chemistry to carry them through the season. But will it be enough? Only time will tell, but one thing's for sure: the New England Patriots are certainly living up to their name as the masters of unpredictability.
Share
ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 12 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 166 - 2022 Rank: 108
Jones looked set to take a step forward after a promising rookie season, but in Year 2 he instead regressed across the board statistically, even being briefly benched for Bailey Zappe. Part of the blame can be placed on the functionality of last year's offensive coaching staff and the high-ankle sprain that forced Jones to the sideline for three contests, but finishing with only 14 TD passes in 14 games can't be overlooked. Now joined by pass-catchers Juju-Smith Schuster and Mike Gesicki, who will hope to make up for the departure of Jakobi Meyers, Jones will need to make the most of the 2023 campaign if he's going to entrench himself as New England's starter of the future. Swapping out the combination of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge for new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien is perhaps the biggest upgrade of the offseason, though Zappe could loom as a threat should Jones falter early. If Jones is to succeed, it may have to be with efficiency rather than volume due to his pass-catching corps, and the presence of Rhamondre Stevenson should O'Brien choose to lean on the run game to complement coach Bill Belichick's defense. While that may not set Jones up to light the fantasy world aflame, regular-season wins might not be as hard to come by for the Patriots as in 2022.
- Round 2, Pick 26 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 32 - 2022 Rank: 112
Stevenson's raw athletic numbers don't jump off the page, but he makes up for a lack of elite speed or quickness with contact balance, vision and a versatile skillset. Stevenson's style breeds elusiveness with the ball in his hands, and he's proven to be a superior pass-catcher as well. Last season, he added a 69-421-1 line through the air in addition to 210 carries for 1,040 yards and five scores on the ground. Stevenson passed the eye-test as New England's undisputed RB1. Damien Harris left for Buffalo, but the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott in August. Stevenson's workload might not increase much this season with Elliott vying for touches, but he's still the lead back and first receiving option out of the backfield. As long as Elliott doesn't snipe too many goal-line carries, the explosive Stevenson is efficient enough to make up for a slight dip volume.
- Round 3, Pick 40 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 122 - 2022 Rank: 206
Smith-Schuster technically operated as the Chiefs' top wide receiver during last season's Super Bowl run, putting up a 78-833-3 line in the regular season. In reality, though, he served as a true No. 2 receiving option behind tight end Travis Kelce. The Patriots saw fit to seemingly swap out Jakobi Meyers for Smith-Schuster, presumably setting up to handle a similar big-slot role, which does bode well, but production may be harder to come from while catching passes from Mac Jones instead of Patrick Mahomes. The acquisition of Mike Gesicki to pair with Hunter Henry could also forebode the Patriots running more two-TE sets, in which case an outside WR would likely share the field rather than a slot man. Still, Smith-Schuster's three-year, $25.5 million deal with $16 million guaranteed at signing is a nice guarantee of his involvement as a key pillar on offense. His base salaries for 2023 and 2024 are guaranteed, so he figures to remain in New England for at minimum a two-year stint.
- Round 4, Pick 54 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 205 - 2022 Rank: 249
Parker, who was traded to New England via the Dolphins last April, caught 31 of his 47 targets for 539 yards and three scores in 13 games in his first season with the Patriots. The 30-year-old is the best contested-catch option in New England's wide receiver room, though the presence of two capable pass-catching tight ends in Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki could portend significant role overlap. Parker's key to fantasy success will be to establish better chemistry with Mac Jones in their second year together, thus earning more reliable volume. Even then, JuJu Smith-Schuster profiles as the leader among the Patriots' WR room, while Tyquan Thornton and Kendrick Bourne could both realistically be featured more prominently in 2023.
- Round 5, Pick 68 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 202 - 2022 Rank: 327
Bourne seemingly fell out of favor with New England's coaching staff in his second year with the team, seeing his production drop from a 55-800-5 receiving line to 35-434-1 in 16 games. The focus is on Mac Jones and this passing attack heading into the 2023 campaign, and reports about Bourne this offseason have been more positive, meaning he could be a better fit with new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien. His chances of emerging as a steady fantasy option remain somewhat slim, though. It will be difficult for Bourne to distinguish himself from JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton, even if he does earn more consistent playing time. Plus, the addition of Mike Gesicki to Hunter Henry means the Patriots could lean heavily on two-TE sets.
- Round 6, Pick 82 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 136 - 2022 Rank: 287
Henry's regression in his second season with the Patriots followed a trend set by the entire Mac Jones-led offense. After producing nine touchdowns in 2021, Henry scoring just twice in 2022 can be viewed as emblematic of New England's entire disappointing season. New offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien could spark some life into the passing game, though the fresh arrival Mike Gesicki could threaten Henry's domination of offensive snaps. On the other hand, Henry and Gesicki would make a dangerous combo in two-TE formations, and O'Brien is no stranger to scheming up 12-man personnel rotations. In all, Henry figures to remain a TD-dependent option for fantasy production, so his success will depend largely on Jones bouncing back after throwing just 14 scores last year.
- Round 7, Pick 96 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 301 - 2022 Rank: 1029
Ryland joins the Patriots as a fourth-round pick, replacing steady veteran Nick Folk. Ryland, a Maryland product, boasts a bigger leg than Folk, which could be a significant factor if New England can keep games close this season. The Patriots saw enough from the rookie during training camp to trade Folk away in late August, leaving Ryland unchallenged for Week 1 kicks.
DEF - Round 8, Pick 110 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 210 - 2022 Rank: 6
Though the 2022 campaign was a substandard effort for the Patriots as a whole, the defense remained a clear strength. New England finished the season only allowing 20.4 points per game, 11th best in the league, while finishing second in turnovers and third in sacks. Coach Bill Belichick's ability to make the most out of his talent on defense is beyond repute. First-round rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez joins a number of other high-end talents, namely OLB Matthew Judon, ILB Ja'Whaun Bentley, S Kyle Dugger and CB Jonathan Jones. Those names lead a unit that also boasts solid depth, providing plenty of reason for optimism that this defense can remain excellent in 2023. That'll need to be the case for the Patriots to find success, considering the other rosters in this division.
- Round 9, Pick 124 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 10, Pick 138 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 11, Pick 152 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 12, Pick 166 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 13, Pick 180 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 14, Pick 194 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 15, Pick 208 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 16, Pick 222 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
