In a draft that left fans scratching their heads, the Denver Broncos managed to secure the illustrious grade of F. With the 2nd overall pick, they had the opportunity to make a splash, but instead they belly-flopped into a sea of disappointment. Their projected record of 7-7-1 is about as exciting as watching paint dry, and their projected finish in 7th place is sure to have fans saying, 'Wait, we finished 7th? We thought it was a typo!'
The Broncos' draft strategy seemed to be 'quantity over quality,' as they managed to draft a whopping 8 players from the same team. While it's admirable to have team loyalty, it's questionable whether this strategy will pay off. And let's not forget their best and worst picks. Jerry Jeudy, who was drafted at 30 with an ADP of 78, might be the diamond in the rough that the Broncos desperately need. On the other hand, their worst pick, Russell Wilson, drafted at 2 with an ADP of 131, leaves us wondering if the Broncos were playing a different game altogether. All in all, it seems like the Denver Broncos are set to achieve mediocrity with a side of disappointment. Maybe they should consider changing their team name to the Denver Meh-broncos.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 2 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 132 - 2022 Rank: 71
Wilson's first season in Denver was a disaster of inconceivable proportions, especially since he was stepping into an offense that was pre-stocked with on-paper talent. The consensus assumption was that Pete Carroll and the Seahawks had held Wilson back for so many years, so the scale of disappointment is difficult to put into words. Luckily for Wilson and the Broncos offense, they'll be replacing one of the worst coaches of recent memory with one of the best, and one specifically noted for building high-octane offenses. Not all of Wilson's 2022 struggles can be blamed on the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett, but the distance between Hackett and new hire Sean Payton is enormous. If Payton can get Wilson back in his element then the Broncos skill position players will be in position to produce more like what was expected going into 2022. There's depth at all of running back, wide receiver and tight end, so Wilson almost has to bounce back from last year's brutal total of 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.
- Round 2, Pick 16 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 67 - 2022 Rank: 405
Williams is racing to return to the field after his 2022 season cruelly ended with an ACL/LCL tear in Week 4, an injury that presumably led the Broncos to pursue Samaje Perine in free agency. Perine's contract is a modest one (two years, $7.5 million), so it's likely safe to assume that Broncos consider Perine a stopgap option until Williams is back to full strength. Once he's healthy Williams will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of the arrival of coach Sean Payton, who should prove to be a night-and-day improvement over the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. Through 21 career games, Williams has run for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns while adding 59 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns on 75 targets (78.7 percent catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). While those numbers don't jump off the page, they're pretty good, especially considering how bad the Denver offense was those two years. Perine should shift into a proper backup role once Williams' knee is ready to go, but it's tough to guess his specific timeline after Williams was a limited participant in May OTAs.
- Round 3, Pick 30 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 81 - 2022 Rank: 165
If not for Russell Wilson's struggles and an ankle injury that cost Jeudy two games there would probably be more talk about how impressive Jeudy was in 2022. The former Alabama star is still just 24, yet last year he produced far above the Denver passing game base line while leading the team in receiving volume. The Broncos passing game completed 63.8 percent of its targets at 7.4 yards per target, but Jeudy finished with 67 receptions for 972 yards on 100 targets (67.0 percent catch rate, 9.7 yards per target). With numbers like that, it's no surprise the Broncos exercised the fifth-year option on Jeudy's rookie contract. If Jeudy can produce like that during a disaster season for Wilson then it makes sense to project a breakout season for Jeudy in 2023, especially if new coach Sean Payton can coax improvement out of Wilson. Even if Wilson doesn't improve, though, Jeudy has already shown an ability to produce despite a poor surrounding offense.
- Round 4, Pick 44 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 83 - 2022 Rank: 233
Sutton could remain a trade candidate if the Broncos see an opportunity to move him, only because his cap hit is very high for the next three years, but if they can't move Sutton then they might as well make good use of him in 2023. Disappointing as his last two seasons have been, the first was his initial return from an ACL tear the prior year, and both seasons were defined by memorably poor quarterback play. It's also worth noting that Sutton drew 12 defensive pass interference calls those two years -- a high figure. Fellow receiver Jerry Jeudy drew only three defensive pass interference calls over the same time span, for instance. If a handful of those DPI calls had been catches for the according yardage then that would have been enough for Sutton's numbers to look a little better. Hopefully, this season gives Sutton a chance to remind what he can do when he's healthy and has decent quarterback play to work with, because the production from Sutton's first two NFL seasons made him look like a future star.
- Round 5, Pick 58 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 112 - 2022 Rank: 763
Mims could very well prove a steal of a late-second-round pick, considering he was a remarkably productive player at Oklahoma, boasting absurd efficiency stats even as the team's most-targeted receiver. Mims just turned 21 in March, yet in his Oklahoma career he caught 123 passes for 2,398 yards and 20 touchdowns on just 183 targets (67.2 percent catch rate, 13.1 yards per target). It's highly unusual for a receiver to produce efficiency stats like that as a team's lead target over a three-year span, especially all before turning 21. With sub-4.4 wheels and a rare ability to track downfield passes, Mims could be the next T.Y. Hilton or something similar. Even if he is, though, it might take a year for Mims to get the space to prove it, as he's unlikely to be more than the No. 3 receiver in an offense that already has Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.
- Round 6, Pick 72 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 264 - 2022 Rank: 382
- Round 7, Pick 86 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 273 - 2022 Rank: 47
Lutz averaged nearly 30 made field goals during his first four years with the Saints. Unfortunately, the team's offense regressed the last two years. As a result, Lutz converted just 23 field goals in each of those seasons. In addition, he posted his two worst seasons in terms of field-goal accuracy. Now Lutz gets a chance to redeem himself with a new team after the Saints traded him to Denver, where he'll be reunited with coach Sean Payton.
DEF - Round 8, Pick 100 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 222 - 2022 Rank: 93
It's a major setback that the Broncos lost 2022 defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero in a lateral move to the Panthers, because Evero authored one of the best defensive coordinator showings of the past 10 years or so by making the Broncos defense one of the best in the league last year. Even with the offense hanging them out to dry every single week, the Broncos played stingy coverage and found ways to routinely stump opposing quarterbacks. Evero's replacement isn't a bad one. Vance Joseph has done solid defensive work in the past and was one of the few things holding the Kliff Kingsbury Cardinals together the last few years, but anyone would be hard-pressed to match Evero's excellent work. The Broncos run defense in particular looks dubious, but the pass rush and coverage personnel could be quite good. The Broncos have three capable edge rushers between Randy Gregory, Baron Browning and Frank Clark, while Patrick Surtain, K'Waun Williams, Damarri Mathis and Riley Moss could prove to be one of the better four-deep cornerback rotations in the league.
- Round 9, Pick 114 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 10, Pick 128 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 11, Pick 142 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 12, Pick 156 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 13, Pick 170 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 14, Pick 184 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 15, Pick 198 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 16, Pick 212 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
