The Pit Steelers had their shot at glory in the Vintage Football League draft, but unfortunately, they missed the mark. With a draft grade of D, it seems like they were aiming for the end zone but ended up fumbling the ball. Despite their lackluster performance, the Steelers are projected to finish 4th with a record of 11-2-2 and 445 projected points. However, their schedule difficulty is ranked as the 14th toughest out of 14 teams, so they might have a harder time than expected.
One shining moment for the Steelers was their best pick, Pat Freiermuth, who was drafted right on target at 76, matching their ADP. It's always a relief when a pick doesn't go completely off the rails. On the other hand, their worst pick was Kenny Pickett, who was selected at a lofty 6th spot, way above their ADP of 122. Maybe the Steelers were trying to make a bold statement, but it seems like they ended up shooting themselves in the foot. To make matters worse, they drafted a whopping 8 players from the same team, including Kenny Pickett, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson II, Pat Freiermuth, Chris Boswell, and Pittsburgh. Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket! Let's hope this doesn't turn into a case of too many cooks spoiling the broth for the Pit Steelers.
Share
ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 6 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 153 - 2022 Rank: 117
A 2022 first-round pick, Pickett took over as Pittsburgh's starting quarterback in Week 4 last year and maintained the position for the remainder of the year whenever he was healthy. He struggled mightily early on but showed improvement as the season progressed. All in all, Pickett's average pass target depth was 8.2 yards, placing him in the middle of the pack, while his YPA was 6.2, second worst in the league. His receivers' low YAC average of 4.0 partially contributed to this. Additionally, he was adversely affected by a dropped-pass percentage of 11.9, which was the fourth-highest in the league. The team didn't add much receiving help in the offseason, apart from post-prime Allen Robinson. However, George Pickens had an impressive rookie season in 2022 with over 800 yards, and TE Pat Freiermuth finished with over 700 yards. There's hope for a bounce-back year from Diontae Johnson, who was the league's least efficient high-volume receiver last year. Even if Johnson struggles again, Pickett's league-low 10.9 TD pass percentage in the red zone can only improve. The Steelers are expected to focus on running the ball with Najee Harris as the lead RB, but Pickett's ability to add to the ground game -- three TDs and an average of 18.2 yards per game last season -- should not be underestimated.
- Round 2, Pick 20 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 56 - 2022 Rank: 92
Despite dealing with some nagging injuries last year, Harris managed to play all 17 games and scored 10 touchdowns for the second time in two pro seasons, albeit within the confines of a sluggish Pittsburgh offense. The 2021 first-round pick fell shy of 4.0 yards per carry for a second straight year, with big plays few and far between while his receiving volume dipped from 93 targets in 2021 to 54 in 2022. Part of that was due to the Steelers throwing less and part due to backup Jaylen Warren getting a lot of playing time on passing downs. Warren is back this season and should have a sizable role off the bench again, but there's still room for Harris to have his best year yet if the Steelers take a step forward in QB Kenny Pickett's second pro year. As much as the young quarterback remains a huge question mark, the team's blocking should be better after Pittsburgh added former Eagles G Isaac Seumalo, rookie OT Broderick Jones (14th overall pick) and 264-pound rookie TE Darnell Washington (93rd pick). The Steelers could have above-average blocking for the first time in years. The lack of backfield depth behind the top two on the depth chart leaves room for Harris to push for 300 touches even if Warren also has a regular role in the offense.
- Round 3, Pick 34 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 99 - 2022 Rank: 237
Last season, Johnson set a standard for high-volume, low-efficiency receiving, catching 86 passes for 882 yards and nary a touchdown on 147 targets. Even on a team with poor quarterback play, such a performance raises concerns about his target workload moving forward. That's doubly true given that Pittsburgh's second- and third-most targeted players, WR George Pickens and TE Pat Freiermuth, both managed above-average numbers for pass-pass efficiency. Pickens and Freiermuth also happen to be younger than Johnson, both coming from the second round in recent drafts. On the other hand, Johnson is only two years removed from putting up 1,161 receiving yards and eight TDs -- albeit on 169 targets -- and he's still one of the better receivers in the league when it comes to lateral agility and elusiveness. The drawbacks, of course, are numerous, as he's struggled with drops and is neither big (5-10, 183) nor fast (4.53 40-yard dash) by NFL standards. Johnson is locked in for a starting job and lofty snap counts after the Steelers settled for a post-prime Allen Robinson as their "big" offseason addition to the WR room, but there's major risk of a step back when it comes to target volume. The efficiency almost has to improve, especially if the Pittsburgh offense takes a step forward in QB Kenny Pickett's second pro season.
- Round 4, Pick 48 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 76 - 2022 Rank: 167
Pickens, a 2022 second-round pick, had a sluggish and injury-ridden conclusion to his time at Georgia on account of an ACL tear suffered during spring practices in 2021. He recovered during his rookie season with the Steelers, fetching 52 receptions for 801 yards and four touchdowns. He made several remarkable catches and showed a knack for snagging contested ones, yet struggled with obtaining separation from cornerbacks. As a result, he drew only 84 targets in 17 games despite playing 882 snaps. At 6-foot-3, with 4.47 speed and strong hands, Pickens doesn't necessarily need to be a great route-runner to thrive. He does figure to make at least small steps forward in that regard, and he enters Year 2 locked in alongside Diontae Johnson and TE Pat Freiermuth as the main targets for QB Kenny Pickett. As bad as Pickett's overall numbers were last season, he showed progress throughout the year and figures to benefit from the Steelers' sizable offseason investment in blocking. There's also the matter of Johnson finishing with no TDs and fewer than 900 yards on nearly 150 targets last year, which would seem to point toward other players -- namely Pickens and Freiermuth -- taking on more of the team's receiving volume this season.
- Round 5, Pick 62 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 219 - 2022 Rank: 283
Robinson had an impressive two years with the Bears in 2019 and 2020, surpassing 1,000 receiving yards both times. However, he had a setback during the 2021 season, only catching 38 passes for 410 yards and one touchdown across 12 games. In 2022, he signed with the Rams for three years but struggled to make an impact while playing under coach Sean McVay. Robinson ended up with only 33 catches for 339 yards and three touchdowns over 10 matches before being sidelined for the remaining seven weeks due to a foot injury. During the offseason, he was traded to the Steelers, giving them a third option at wide receiver alongside Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. Given Robinson's age -- 30 in August -- and lack of production the last two years, he may only be the No. 3 WR in what's unlikely to be a pass-heavy offense. He did at least return healthy for the offseason program, and there's not much competition for the third receiver spot even if he continues to struggle.
- Round 6, Pick 76 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 109 - 2022 Rank: 244
During his second NFL season last year, Freiermuth's involvement as a pass catcher increased significantly compared to his rookie campaign. However, he dipped from seven touchdowns in 2021 to only two in 2022, suffering from poor QB play and Pittsburgh's overall struggles in the red zone. It was otherwise a strong year, as the 2021 second-round pick set new highs with 63 catches, 732 yards, and 98 targets. Freiermuth tied for fourth among tight ends in overall targets but finished with only 13 red-zone targets, falling well short of the 20 he had in 2021. He has not yet caught a touchdown from Kenny Pickett. The Steelers added more focus on their offensive line during the offseason, settling for WR Allen Robinson and third-round rookie TE Darnell Washington as additions at the skill positions. While Freiermuth sprained the ACL and MCL in his left knee during Pittsburgh's season finale, he did not require surgery to recover and is expected to participate in training camp as usual. He figures to be one of the team's top three pass catchers, alongside WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.
- Round 7, Pick 90 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 294 - 2022 Rank: 83
Last year, Boswell only made 71.4 percent of his field-goal attempts, which ended his streak of at least 90 percent in each of the previous three years. However, it should be taken into account that he attempted only 28 field goals, 19 of which were from 40 yards or longer. He only made half of the 40-49 yard attempts, but impressively went 7-for-9 from 50 yards or more, following his 8-for-9 record from the previous year. It's of course worth noting that Boswell missed five games and was attached to a terrible offense. He'll likely be healthier this year, but improvement from the Pittsburgh offense appears closer to a 50/50 proposition, largely depending on the progress of second-year QB Kenny Pickett.
DEF - Round 8, Pick 104 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 198 - 2022 Rank: 79
In terms of fantasy performance, the Steelers were not as successful as usual in 2022, ending up in 14th place with only 40 sacks and 23 takeaways. OLB T.J. Watt's absence from seven games was a crucial factor in the defense's decline, but he is now in good health and ready to form a dominant edge pairing with Alex Highsmith. Pittsburgh has strengthened its secondary by signing CB Patrick Peterson and drafting CB Joey Porter with the 32nd overall pick, making up for the loss of CB Cameron Sutton. With Watt and Highsmith joined by standout safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Pittsburgh defense certainly doesn't lack star power.
- Round 9, Pick 118 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 10, Pick 132 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 11, Pick 146 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 12, Pick 160 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 13, Pick 174 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 14, Pick 188 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 15, Pick 202 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 16, Pick 216 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
