In a draft that had the Cincinnati Bengals picking 7th out of 14 teams, they managed to outshine their competitors and secure an impressive A+ draft grade. With 16 rounds to work their magic, the Bengals made some bold moves that are sure to pay off. Their best pick, Ja'Marr Chase, was snatched up at 35, way ahead of their ADP of 3. Talk about a steal! On the other hand, their worst pick, Tyler Boyd, was chosen at 63, much higher than their ADP of 129. Oops! But hey, nobody's perfect, right? With a projected record of 12-1-2, the Bengals are poised to make a serious run for the playoffs.
One thing that stands out about the Bengals' draft strategy is their love for a particular team. They managed to draft a whopping 8 players from the same team, including Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Irv Smith Jr., Evan McPherson, and Cincinnati. It's like they're trying to create their own little Bengals squad within the Vintage Football League! With a projected finish of 2nd place, the Bengals are clearly confident in their choices. They'll have to navigate a schedule that's ranked as the 12th toughest out of 14 teams, but with their talented roster, they're ready to take on any challenge. Watch out, because the Cincinnati Bengals are about to pounce!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 7 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 101 - 2022 Rank: 4
Last season was Burrow's second in a row leading the NFL in on-target percentage (76.7) while finishing second in completion percentage (68.3). However, there was a slight dip in these stats in 2022 compared to the previous year, which is perhaps surprising because Burrow decreased his rate of deep throws significantly. In 2022, Burrow threw 20-plus yards downfield on only 7.5 percent of his attempts, ranking him 30th in the league. Meanwhile, his rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage rose to 19.6 percent. Nevertheless, he finished as QB4 in fantasy with the help of five touchdown runs and 257 rushing yards. Burrow also remained efficient on deep throws, tying Geno Smith for the highest on-target rate on 20-plus-yard attempts (60.0 percent). The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line did not meet preseason expectations, which could explain Burrow's increase in dump-offs. However, the team has since signed standout left tackle Orlando Brown and moved Jonah Williams to right tackle. Burrow's top three wide receivers, including Ja'marr Chase, are still on the team, and Irv Smith is replacing Hayden Hurst at tight end. Burrow's efficiency could improve, and even with some expected regression in his rushing touchdowns he stands a decent chance to remain in the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.
- Round 2, Pick 21 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 26 - 2022 Rank: 96
During the offseason, Mixon had some peculiar incidents off the field that raised concerns about potential legal or NFL penalties, though it's not clear exactly what that might look like. Assuming he remains on the Bengals and is not suspended, Mixon could be a valuable player for fantasy, as has been the case throughout most of his career. Despite not being particularly explosive, Mixon should get a lot of touches. Former backup Samaje Perine left for Denver in free agency, with no new veteran or highly drafted player to replace him. Mixon caught 102 passes over the past two seasons even though Perine took a lot of the passing-down work; Mixon even had career-best totals of 75 targets, 60 catches, and 441 receiving yards in just 14 games last year. While he has only had one season with multiple rushes of over 40 yards and an average of better than 4.1 yards per carry (in 2018), consistent volume in an offense that scores a lot of points is usually good for fantasy, and an upgrade in blocking with the addition of 345-pound OT Orlando Brown could also benefit Mixon.
- Round 3, Pick 35 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 134
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 4, Pick 49 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 78 - 2022 Rank: 146
Higgins is well established as a high-quality WR2 in both real life and fantasy football. There's been some talk of him getting a WR1 opportunity as he enters the final year of his contract, but the Bengals don't seem interested in succumbing to trade rumors. Higgins showed up for the offseason program, and the team can keep him around next year with a franchise tag even if he doesn't sign an extension this summer/fall. He had at least 908 yards and six touchdowns in each of his first three NFL seasons, including back-to-back 1,000 yard campaigns the past two years. At 6-4, he excels on jump balls and contested catches, and although he is not as fast as teammate Ja'Marr Chase or as much of a YAC threat, Higgins nonetheless has proven quite useful on short and intermediate passes. In terms of fantasy upside beyond the 1,200-yard range or so, that'll probably only happen for Higgins in Cincinnati if Chase misses extended time -- a scenario that would leave the talented 2020 second-round pick as Joe Burrow's unquestioned top option.
- Round 5, Pick 63 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 172 - 2022 Rank: 184
Boyd has finished with 750-to-850 receiving yards in each season since the Bengals drafted QB Joe Burrow and WR Tee Higgins (2020). Earlier in his career, Boyd had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2018-19, operating as Cincinnati's No. 1 receiver for a time. Now the team's No. 3 wide receiver, Boyd has partially made up for a huge decrease in target volume by upping his catch rates and yards per target throughout Burrow's tenure. This reduction in volume seems unlikely to reverse in a meaningful way unless Higgins and/or Ja'Marr Chase miss(es) a large chunk of the season. Even then, it's worth noting that Boyd averaged only five targets and 35.5 yard in the four games Chase missed last season. Higgins, on the other hand, averaged nine targets and 92.8 yards during that period. Boyd is still a viable option in deeper fantasy setups where his relatively high floor has value, but managers in shallower leagues are probably better off using a late pick on a young receiver with more risk/reward.
- Round 6, Pick 77 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 189 - 2022 Rank: 344
Smith is on track to become the Bengals' third starting tight end in as many seasons. In 2022, Hayden Hurst filled that role and caught 52 passes for 414 yards and two touchdowns on 68 targets in 13 games, after C.J. Uzomah caught 49 passes for 493 yards and five TDs on 63 targets in 2021. A 2019 second-round pick, Smith is getting an interesting second chance after signing a one-year, $1.75 million contract this offseason. His last two years in Minnesota were undone by knee surgery and a major ankle injury, with the Vikings opting to trade for fellow tight end T.J. Hockenson after Smith disappointed early last season and then went down with the high-ankle sprain. Now healthy, Smith turns 25 in August and will compete for snaps in a weak TE room that includes Drew Sample, a 2019 second-round pick who suffered a season-ending knee injury after two games last year.
- Round 7, Pick 91 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 212 - 2022 Rank: 35
Though McPherson's second pro season did not quite match up to his 2021 debut, he confirmed he's one of the better kickers in the league. He converted 9 out of 14 tries from 40-49 yards and all five from beyond 50 yards, also tying for sixth in PAT attempts (44) and seventh in PAT conversions (40). If anyone is to challenge Baltimore's Justin Tucker for the fantasy kicking throne, the 2021 fifth-round pick from his own division just might be the player to do so. While McPherson hasn't been as reliable as Tucker from close range, McPherson has an outstanding record from 50-plus yards (14 for 16) and is attached to a Cincinnati offense that's been considerably better than Baltimore's the past couple years.
DEF - Round 8, Pick 105 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 204 - 2022 Rank: 91
The Bengals defense had a strong 2022, ranking eighth with 24 takeaways and sixth with only 19 points allowed per game. However, the team lost both starting safeties, Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, during free agency in the offseason. As a result, they will have to rely on 2022 first-rounder Dax Hill and new signing Nick Scott to step up.Additionally, the Bengals have added second-round rookie CB DJ Turner to their secondary. The team's front seven at least looks strong again, which may aid the inexperienced secondary. And from a fantasy standpoint, it helps that the Bengals have an offense capable of providing large leads throughout the season.
- Round 9, Pick 119 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 10, Pick 133 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 11, Pick 147 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 12, Pick 161 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 13, Pick 175 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 14, Pick 189 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 15, Pick 203 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 16, Pick 217 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
