Shelpas UTD, a team in the EndZone Dynasty league, made their mark in the draft with a respectable B+ grade. Picking from the 4th spot in a 12-team league, they had the chance to snag some top talent, and they didn't disappoint. Their projected finish of 4th suggests they're aiming for mediocrity, and they seem to be right on track.
While Shelpas UTD may not have had the flashiest draft, they made some smart moves. Their best pick was Tua Tagovailoa, who they managed to grab at 33, well below their ADP of 96. This steal of a pick could be a game-changer for their team. However, they did stumble with their worst pick, selecting Quentin Johnston at 9, despite an ADP of 128. Maybe they know something we don't, or maybe they just got a little too excited.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 4 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 80 - 2022 Rank: -
After the Vikings cut ties with Adam Thielen, they were in need of a clear No. 2 receiver. They didn't waste time in addressing that need, using the 23rd pick in this year's draft to select Addison. In college, he showed the ability to run effective routes at all levels of the field. He also showed excellent separation skills. But his game wasn't without questions. The 175-pound receiver seemed to lack some physicality, which could be an issue in the NFL. Also, quite a bit of his college production came on screen passes, and that may be difficult to duplicate at the next level. Finally, he disappointed at the NFL Combine. He ran a 55th-percentile 40-yard-dash time, and his explosiveness testing came in at the 50th percentile. Regardless, he is expected to start across from Justin Jefferson this season. He'll also have a quarterback in Kirk Cousins, who has shown the ability to lead a productive passing attack. Despite some knocks on his profile as he enters the pros, volume and circumstance could propel Addison to a productive rookie campaign.
- Round 2, Pick 9 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 118 - 2022 Rank: -
While it remains to be seen how quickly and how well Johnston adapts to the NFL, the first-round pick out of TCU has a lot of positive indicators in his prospect profile, and the Chargers have an interest in making him look good after selecting him 21st overall in the 2023 draft. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both target hogs, and Joshua Palmer can't be entirely written off after drawing 107 targets in 2022, but Johnston offers something new and exciting that the Chargers badly lacked previously: a convincing downfield threat. Williams and especially Allen are less than threatening downfield, which is a waste when you consider how great of a downfield passer Justin Herbert is. Drafting Johnston shows the Chargers considered it a priority to unlock the downfield part of Herbert's game. Since Johnston runs different routes than Allen and Williams it should also mean the three can coexist as fantasy assets. Johnston isn't eligible for the kind of target rates Allen and Williams are likely to draw, but as the Chargers' main home run threat it's possible that he makes up for the target deficit by providing a better yards-per-target and touchdown rate.
- Round 3, Pick 21 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 242 - 2022 Rank: -
Tiny by NFL running back standards, Vaughn's 5-foot-5 frame didn't stop him from being incredibly productive at Kansas State, and the Cowboys decided to invest a sixth-round pick in him rather than try to sign him as a priority UDFA. There are advantages to being a David in a land of Goliaths, and Darren Sproles made a career out of getting lost behind his offensive line before exploding into open space, but Vaughn has a lot to prove before he'll be at that level. If he's going to carve out a role it will likely come via his plus receiving skills. Dallas' backfield is wide open behind Tony Pollard, and while Vaughn almost certainly won't be a factor on early downs, he could inherit a sliver of the multi-purpose role Pollard held before ascending to the starting spot.
- Round 4, Pick 33 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 85 - 2022 Rank: 14
Tagovailoa finally looked like an elite playmaker on the NFL stage for stretches last season, proving that he's an obvious fit for coach Mike McDaniel's scheme, before concussions derailed his what appeared to be a decisive breakout. He nonetheless finished the season with a QB rating of 105.5, third best in the league, and a first-place 8.9 yards per pass attempt. A top-three wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle cements Tagovailoa's situation as elite, especially after an offseason of minor additions to the offensive line. The only significant question still looming over the fourth-year QB is one of durability, as even before last season's concussion issues he'd never played more than 13 games in a single year. As long as Tagovailoa can stay upright, though, he should produce at one of the league's highest rates, and over the offseason he was cleared of additional risk for suffering future concussions. It seems unfair to demand another 'prove-it' season from Tua after his accomplishments in 2022, but even after the Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option, he still needs to demonstrate he can put it all together for a full campaign.
- Round 5, Pick 45 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 181 - 2022 Rank: 208
The 2022 season was a frustrating one for Butker, a kicker not used to struggling. An ankle injury in Week 1 seemed to stick with Butker for most of the year, and he ended up converting just 18 of his 24 field goal attempts in 13 games. If Butker had stayed healthy he would have likely posted a much better conversion rate. In each of the five prior seasons Butker finished with a field goal percentage of 88.9 or better, even while kicking often and regularly from long range. Now healthy again, Butker should resume his pre-2022 functions as a high-volume, high-efficiency kicker in one of the league's best offenses. Before 2022 Butker averaged 29 field goals and 47 PATs made per season.
- Round 6, Pick 57 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1784 - 2022 Rank: 429
- Round 7, Pick 69 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1162 - 2022 Rank: 221
White took several years to break out, though he progressively ramped up both his snap count and production with the Chargers until he broke out in 2021. He took a modest step back in terms of tackles in 2022 with the Eagles, but he still topped the century mark for the second consecutive campaign. One key skill he displayed in Philly was his work in coverage. After breaking up only 10 passes combined across his first four seasons in the league, he logged seven in 2022 alone. White signed a two-year deal with the Cardinals this offseason and will be a key figure in turning around a defense that struggled at nearly every level in 2022. As a result, he's a good bet to rack up tackles and perhaps some other peripheral stats once again in 2023.
- Round 8, Pick 81 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 261 - 2022 Rank: -
Given his performance as both a runner and receiver at Illinois and his impressive athletic performance at the 2023 Scouting Combine, Brown should be taken more seriously than the average fifth-round pick. He also did well to land in Cincinnati, where his impressive speed (4.43 40) and quickness (127-inch broad jump) could play well in a pass-first offense. Over his final two collegiate seasons, Brown ran for 2,648 yards (5.3 yards per carry) and 15 touchdowns and caught 41 of his 49 targets for 382 yards and three touchdowns (83.7 percent catch rate, 7.8 yards per target) in 22 games for Illinois. Notably, Brown is faster and more skilled than both Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans, the two veterans he'll challenge for depth roles behind Joe Mixon. The competition becomes all the more interesting given Mixon's off-field issues and lack of guaranteed salary, though the Bengals thus far have suggested they expect Mixon to stay on the team and handle a key role again.
- Round 9, Pick 93 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1300 - 2022 Rank: 455
After working in a reserve role during his rookie season of 2021, Deablo looked to be gaining the trust of his team in his sophomore year. Through eight games, he had played 441 defensive snaps and tallied an impressive 74 total tackles. However, his season ended in Week 9 after suffering a significant forearm injury. Deablo proved to be a strong defender against the run, but moving forward, he'll have to prove he can be effective in coverage while. In an ideal world, he'd also add some pass-rushing ability to his skills profile, as he has yet to record a sack in his career. While he's not yet a complete player, Deablo is a safe bet to work with the first team this season he should have the chance to post some gaudy tackle totals.
- Round 10, Pick 105 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 592 - 2022 Rank: 155
In a move that was hotly debated, the Steelers traded a first-round pick for Fitzpatrick in 2019. He's certainly held up his end of the deal, averaging 100 tackles and four interceptions in his three full seasons with Pittsburgh. Those stats don't accurately describe the impact that Fitzpatrick has on the defense, as he's proven to be a big-play threat in coverage. He's tallied at least nine pass breakups in all but one of his seasons. In addition, his ball-hawking has translated into five career touchdowns, including a 31-yard interception return in a Week 1 win against the Bengals in 2022. That big-play potential is the secret weapon in Fitzpatrick's fantasy arsenal, something that sets him apart from most other IDP options.
- Round 11, Pick 117 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1322 - 2022 Rank: 87
Edwards enjoyed a breakout 2022 season and emerged as a key member of the Eagles' excellent defense. His 1,005 snaps were 311 more than he had in the previous campaign, and he turned that into career-high marks in tackles (159) and passes defended (7). Edwards parlayed his production into a three-year, $19.5 million contract with the Bears this offseason. He'll play alongside Tremaine Edwards - another free-agent addition for Chicago - in a reimagined defense. While Edwards has just five sacks and two forced fumbles as a pro, he could become more of a playmaker on his new team as he's projected to shift from being inside to an outside linebacker. Regardless of exactly where he lines up, he'll be counted on for a similar workload in Chicago and thus should be a top IDP in the fall.
- Round 12, Pick 129 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 43 - 2022 Rank: 17
Jackson's 2022 was cut short by a Week 13 knee injury, limiting him to just 12 games. If his 11 complete games were prorated to a full season, he would have recorded almost 3,500 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Despite his completion percentage (62.3) and yards per attempt (6.9) dropping compared to the previous few years, he still managed QB1-level fantasy production thanks to his exceptional running ability. Jackson's performance was hindered by arguably the worst wideout corps in the league, but the Ravens took steps to address this issue by signing Odell Beckham and then drafting Zay Flowers in the first round. A healthy season from Rashod Bateman, their 2021 first-round pick who missed six games with a Lisfranc injury, would also be significant. Tight end Mark Andrews is still the main target in the offense, with fellow TE Isaiah Likely providing an additional receiving threat. The most crucial change could be the switch in offensive scheme from Greg Roman's run-heavy playbook to a more pass-oriented one led by new OC Todd Monken. Jackson ended the uncertainty around his future by signing a five-year deal worth $135 million guaranteed in May. He is undoubtedly the best QB in the league when it comes to running, and a full season could see him reach 1,000 rushing yards even if he gets fewer designed carries under Monken.
- Round 13, Pick 141 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 4 - 2022 Rank: 34
Pollard finally emerged from Ezekiel Elliott's shadow in 2022. The Memphis product turned a career-high workload into career-best volume numbers without losing any efficiency, as Pollard topped 5.0 yards per carry for the third time in four NFL seasons while delivering his best yards per catch average to date at 9.5. The Cowboys were also more willing to use Pollard in the red zone, resulting in 12 total touchdowns after he had only 10 in his first three years combined. The breakout performance, along with salary cap concerns, finally convinced Dallas to move on from a declining Elliott, but that doesn't necessarily mean Pollard's role has room to grow further as his thin frame may not be able to handle much more than last season's 233 touches. Then again, Zeke's 231 carries will have to go somewhere. The team did add Ronald Jones in the offseason, and Malik Davis looked capable enough as a rookie last year, but Pollard will head into 2023 as the clear top option in the backfield after getting the franchise tag from the club to keep him from reaching free agency.
- Round 14, Pick 153 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 91 - 2022 Rank: 203
Signed to a two-year, $7.5 million contract in free agency, Perine is Denver's insurance for Javonte Williams while Williams recovers from his season-ending ACL/LCL injury from Week 4. New coach Sean Payton likely appreciated Perine's ability to play passing-down snaps, as Perine can make an impact both as a pass catcher and in blitz pickup. His dense, 240-pound frame allows Perine to withstand big volume if necessary, so his presence buys enough time for Williams to progress at whatever pace the Broncos want. With a career total of 1,592 yards and seven touchdowns rushing at 4.0 yards per carry, however, it's safe to say that Perine is volume-dependent as a runner. So long as Williams is active, it's difficult to imagine Perine claiming the rushing volume necessary to stand out. If the volume is up for grabs, though, Perine is prepared to shoulder it.
- Round 15, Pick 165 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 9 - 2022 Rank: 32
After spending the first three seasons of his career stuck in a run-focused Titans offense that didn't always take advantage of Brown's imposing physicality, the 2019 second-round pick got traded to the Eagles and was unleashed on the NFL. He shattered his career highs in both receiving volume and efficiency nearly across the board, and his presence alongside DeVonta Smith on the outside helped quarterback Jalen Hurts blossom into an MVP candidate. After a run to the Super Bowl, Philadelphia was able to avoid significant turnover on the offensive side of the ball, so there's little reason to expect Brown's usage to decline in 2023. On the other hand, there's little reason to expect it to increase either. Hurts' elite running ability puts a cap on the team's passing volume, and Brown still has to split looks with Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, although the team's other skill players didn't get used much as receivers last year. Brown will have to rely on big plays and red-zone targets to post elite numbers again, but he's more than capable of doing so.
- Round 16, Pick 177 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 57 - 2022 Rank: 67
Lockett has been one of the most consistent performers in the NFL over the last four years. During that time, he's posted between 1,033 and 1,175 yards. He's also scored between 8-10 touchdowns in five straight years. His targets have also been consistent, as he has seen between 107 and 117 in three of the last four years. Last year, he had an excellent weekly scoring floor. He posted at least 60 yards in 10 games. He's going into his age 31 season, so decline is likely on the horizon, but from what we've seen, he may likely have a gradual descent opposed to a complete loss of skills. Lockett will likely be a value in drafts like he was last year, and betting on his consistency over many years seems like a safe bet.
- Round 17, Pick 189 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 140 - 2022 Rank: 428
Burks struggled to find a rhythm as a rookie despite the lack of alternatives in Tennessee's passing game. The 2022 first-round pick out of Arkansas had breathing problems in camp and was ultimately limited to 11 appearances as a rookie due to turf toe and a concussion. Despite those limitations, Burks finished third on the team with 54 targets. Both players who ranked ahead of him -- WR Robert Woods (91) and TE Austin Hooper (60) -- are no longer on the Titans, but the team did sign veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins in July. The 6-foot-2, 225-pound Burks has shown no signs of breathing problems in camp this year, and whether it's veteran Ryan Tannehill or rookie second-round pick Will Levis throwing him the ball, Burks should at least be Option B in Tennessee's passing game.
- Round 18, Pick 201 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 159 - 2022 Rank: 1470
Beckham missed all last season to rehab his ACL tear from the previous year's Super Bowl, waiting until April before signing a one-year deal with Baltimore worth $15 million, mostly guaranteed. It's a surprisingly large number for a wideout four years removed from this last 1,000-yard season, and he'll even have the chance to earn an additional $3 million in incentives. Beckham, 30, is a big part of Baltimore's passing-game makeover under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, whose brief tenure with the team has also been marked by QB Lamar Jackson signing an extension and the front office using a first-round pick on WR Zay Flowers. While both Jackson and Beckham seem happy, fantasy managers should be wary of Beckham's injury history and decrease in production. Even if he returns to form and stays healthy, he'll have sturdy competition for targets in what figures to be a balanced offense. In addition to Flowers and Beckham, the Ravens have 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman coming back from a foot injury and TE Mark Andrews looming as an annual threat to lead the team in targets. Beckham might help the Ravens more than he helps fantasy teams.
- Round 19, Pick 213 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 79 - 2022 Rank: 206
Engram earned a franchise tag this spring and then a three-year, $42 million contract this summer, cashing in big after his first season in Jacksonville concluded with career highs for catches (73) and receiving yards (766). The 2017 first-round pick mostly struggled in five seasons with the Giants, dropping 17 passes in his last two years with the team that drafted him, but Engram cut his drop total down to five with the Jaguars in 2022. Engram's 4.42 speed fits well into a Jacksonville offense predicated around quick passes by QB Trevor Lawrence. But Engram is undersized for a tight end at 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, which helps explain why he's surpassed last season's total of four TDs only once in his six-year career. Case in point, Engram tied for fourth among TEs with 98 targets last year, but only nine of those came in the red zone, which ranked outside the top 20 at the position. Wide receivers Christian Kirk (133) and Zay Jones (121) both had more targets than Engram last season, and with WR Calvin Ridley now joining the offense there are a lot of players deserving of Lawrence's attention. Engram's 2023 target count could decline.
- Round 20, Pick 225 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1163 - 2022 Rank: 339
- Round 21, Pick 237 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 553 - 2022 Rank: 372
- Round 22, Pick 249 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1675 - 2022 Rank: 1128
- Round 23, Pick 261 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 26 - 2022 Rank: 48
During the offseason, Mixon had some peculiar incidents off the field that raised concerns about potential legal or NFL penalties, though it's not clear exactly what that might look like. Assuming he remains on the Bengals and is not suspended, Mixon could be a valuable player for fantasy, as has been the case throughout most of his career. Despite not being particularly explosive, Mixon should get a lot of touches. Former backup Samaje Perine left for Denver in free agency, with no new veteran or highly drafted player to replace him. Mixon caught 102 passes over the past two seasons even though Perine took a lot of the passing-down work; Mixon even had career-best totals of 75 targets, 60 catches, and 441 receiving yards in just 14 games last year. While he has only had one season with multiple rushes of over 40 yards and an average of better than 4.1 yards per carry (in 2018), consistent volume in an offense that scores a lot of points is usually good for fantasy, and an upgrade in blocking with the addition of 345-pound OT Orlando Brown could also benefit Mixon.
- Round 24, Pick 273 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 2350 - 2022 Rank: 863
Reagor saw his yardage decline from 396 yards as a rookie in 2020 to 299 last year and then to just 104 yards in his first year with the Vikings last year. That's not a promising career arc for the 2020 first-round pick. He enters this season in a battle for the No. 4 role with Brandon Powell and Jalen Nailor. But the Vikings declined Reagor's fifth-year option for 2024, so he's not guaranteed a roster spot this season. His best chance at making the roster might be as a punt returner.
- Round 25, Pick 285 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 75 - 2022 Rank: 63
A move from Arizona to Jacksonville in free agency last year helped Kirk take his game to the next level. Kirk established himself as the favorite target for QB Trevor Lawrence en route to career highs in targets (133), catches (84), receiving yards (1,108) and touchdowns (eight). Repeating that volume will be difficult in 2023, as Kirk will have to compete for targets with Calvin Ridley, who has played only five games since the 2020 season but posted 1,374 receiving yards in that 2020 campaign. The Jaguars are also bringing back Zay Jones and Evan Engram, who ranked second and third behind Kirk in targets last season, with 121 and 98, respectively. A potential drop in targets could be canceled out by improved efficiency for Kirk in 2023, as Lawrence could take another step forward in his third NFL season, and defenses will likely have to divert attention away from Kirk to contain Ridley. Kirk turns 27 in November, so he's in no danger of losing a step due to age as he enters the second season of his four-year, $72 million deal with the Jaguars.
- Round 26, Pick 297 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 89 - 2022 Rank: 161
Meyers continues to ascend as an NFL wideout, a conversion project that started in 2016 after he arrived to North Carolina State as a quarterback recruit. Perhaps Meyers will unveil a trick pass now and then, but at this point he's established himself as a natural wide receiver. After primarily lining up as a slot receiver in New England, Josh McDaniels might envision more of an all-around role for Meyers with the Raiders, if only because it's impossible to see how slot specialist Hunter Renfrow would see the field if it were Meyers in the slot. It's not a given that Meyers thrives outside -- his 4.63-second 40 is not normally what you look for in a boundary wideout -- but his lack of speed can be mitigated somewhat if the Raiders line up with tight splits. If the Raiders line up in narrow formations then it places Meyers a little closer to the slot than if he were lining up closer to the sideline, and perhaps that's all the accommodation he needs. With 303 targets on his last 2,180 snaps (118 per 850 snaps) and a three-year, $33 million contract in hand it's safe to say that Meyers will be busy with the Raiders one way or another. As long as Jimmy Garoppolo (foot) stays healthy, Meyers should be a decent bet to surpass 70 catches on the year, even with Davante Adams raking ahead of him.
- Round 27, Pick 309 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 121 - 2022 Rank: 537
Pitts took a big step back between his rookie year in 2021 and his sophomore campaign in 2022. Before suffering a knee injury in his 11th game, he had scored twice while averaging 35.6 yards per game. Pitts had two solid games with 80 and 87 yards but was held under 30 yards seven times. Although Pitts didn't do much with his chances, he at least was targeted between five and nine times in each of his last five games. He remained the focal point of a low-volume passing game. Going into 2023, we're not questioning Pitts' talent. He's still one of the most physically gifted tight ends to ever come out of the college ranks, and it's highly likely he increases his production from last year. But if the offense is still run-heavy and sophomore WR Drake London is also handling a large target share, Pitts might not put up huge numbers even if he performs better. A shaky QB situation adds to the concern, with second-year pro Desmond Ridder having averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt in four games as a rookie last year.
- Round 28, Pick 321 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1282 - 2022 Rank: 84
Entering his ninth NFL season, Mosley has emerged as one of the most consistent tacklers in the league, topping 100 stops on six occasions. However, he's particularly blossomed under coach Robert Saleh in the last two years, posting his two highest tackle-total seasons and totaling 326 stops. Even at a relatively advanced age of 31, Mosley has recently shown the ability to improve his skills. He tallied seven passes defensed in 2022, his highest mark since the 2017 season. Given the wear and tear on his body, there will be some risk that Mosley will either lose a step or lose out on playing time due to injury in 2023 and beyond. However, it's hard to argue with his track record until he shows tangible signs of slowing down.
- Round 29, Pick 333 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1579 - 2022 Rank: 154
- Round 30, Pick 345 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 396 - 2022 Rank: 1156
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
