The Alcatraz Jackals had their chance to break free from mediocrity in the EndZone Dynasty draft, but it seems they're content with staying behind bars. With the 7th pick in the draft order, they had the opportunity to make a splash, but instead, they made a belly flop. Their D+ draft grade perfectly reflects their lackluster performance, as they failed to make any standout picks that would make their opponents tremble in fear. The Jackals seem to be banking on the element of surprise, but it's more likely they'll be the ones caught off guard.
In an attempt to outsmart the competition, the Jackals loaded up on running backs like they were going out of style. With a whopping 9 RBs drafted, they've certainly cornered the market on ball carriers. But while the league average is 6 RBs, the Jackals clearly didn't get the memo that quality trumps quantity. Their roster may be overflowing with running backs, but it's doubtful any of them will be able to carry the team to victory. And let's not forget their best and worst picks - they managed to find a diamond in the rough with Kirk Cousins at pick 31, but then promptly squandered their luck by reaching for De'Von Achane at pick 7. It's clear that the Jackals have a knack for making puzzling decisions.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 7 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 135 - 2022 Rank: -
The NFL hasn't seen a running back of Achane's undersized frame succeed as more than a gadget player since Warrick Dunn in 1997. On the other hand, smaller wide receivers have begun finding real success in the modern league, and Achane is a more than capable pass-catcher. It shouldn't be overlooked, though, that he did hold up to significant volume at Texas A&M. Neither of Raheem Mostert nor Jeff Wilson is a slouch, so it's not as though the rookie-third-round pick would have a clear path to workhorse status even if he did boast prototypical size. Excitement over Achane stems less from projections of the volume and more from what his tools and 4.32-40 speed might accomplish in coach Mike McDaniel's scheme. Schemed plays ought to be regularly featured for Achane, and if he's able to earn sizeable weekly volume in Miami's backfield timeshare, his production could surprise.
- Round 2, Pick 19 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1186 - 2022 Rank: -
Campbell is an off-ball linebacker, which made him something of a curious chance at 18th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, there are certain athletic traits that he possesses that simply can't be taught - highlighted by a 4.65 40-yard dash, 128-inch broad jump, and a 6.74-second three-cone drill - so that isn't to say he won't be productive. His draft capital also all but ensures that he'll get regular reps among the Lions' linebacker corps immediately. After that, nothing is guaranteed. It will be interesting to see how Campbell adjusts to the NFL after he didn't post particularly compelling numbers in run defense or as a pass rusher while at Iowa. Specifically, he never recorded more than one sack in a season and never had more than 5.5 tackles for loss in a single season.
- Round 3, Pick 31 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 114 - 2022 Rank: 7
Typically when each season ends, Cousins puts up very good seasonal numbers. It's the week-to-week ride that can be very problematic for fantasy managers. He threw for the second-most yardage of his career last year, but don't forget we're in a 17-game season these days, so those numbers can be skewed a bit. Cousins threw 14 interceptions in 2022, which was his highest total in a season to go along with 29 touchdowns. And although he's great for having explosive games, Cousins had three games with at least three touchdown passes, he often goes flat. He had eight games in which he threw zero or one touchdown. Cousins also had three games in which he failed to surpass 175 passing yards. Still not enough? He had four games with multiple interceptions. Cousins' ceiling games make him an excellent option in best ball leagues. But in redraft leagues, the implosion games are often unpredictable, and that makes him better as a QB2 in leagues that start a single quarterback. He's obviously a great option in leagues that start two quarterbacks.
- Round 4, Pick 43 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1324 - 2022 Rank: 308
Perryman signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Texans during the offseason - his third time in nine professional seasons. Houston is a particularly intriguing landing spot, as he'll pair with defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans. Perryman has maintained excellent per-game production consistently, though his overall numbers are underwhelming due to injury. He's played 15 games only once in his career and has played 12 or fewer contests in half of his campaigns. Perryman's 2022 season was cut short by a labrum injury that required surgery, but he participated in offseason activities and should take on as much of a workload in 2023 as his body can handle.
- Round 5, Pick 55 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 492 - 2022 Rank: 191
- Round 6, Pick 67 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 392 - 2022 Rank: 182
- Round 7, Pick 79 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 2512 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 8, Pick 91 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 306 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 9, Pick 103 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 177 - 2022 Rank: 90
Bass has proven to be one of the league's most accurate kickers since joining the Bills as a sixth-round pick back in 2020. He's logged back-to-back seasons with at least an 87 percent field-goal conversion rate, with 57, 51 and 48 PATs over the last three years. The weather conditions in Buffalo aren't ideal for a kicker, but Bass makes up for it in opportunities within one of the top offenses in the league. He's converted either 27 or 28 in each of his pro seasons.
- Round 10, Pick 115 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 234 - 2022 Rank: 1066
Some had hoped White would compete with Josh Jacobs and perhaps even win the starting Raiders running back role as a rookie, but that of course was a bit hasty. Jacobs is a very good three-down back, whereas White even in theory was more of a rushing specialist, ideally one who plays off the bench. White has real speed to work with and runs with a hot motor, so his tenacity combined with adequate wheels should make him a useful runner in the NFL, just as he was at Georgia when he started over James Cook and Kenny McIntosh. White couldn't earn playing time as a rookie is somewhat disappointing, but it was never a fair expectation that he compete immediately with Jacobs as a rookie fourth-round pick. If Jacobs were to miss time then White would be a good bet to start for the Raiders, with passing-down specialist Ameer Abdullah likely still the main pass catcher. White had an injury history at Georgia, a predictable result of his intense running style at a relatively high build (6-feet, 214 pounds), so it should be understood that even if Jacobs were to miss time White would likely not see as many carries, or targets for workload limitation reasons.
- Round 11, Pick 127 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1239 - 2022 Rank: 993
- Round 12, Pick 139 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 90 - 2022 Rank: 286
The Browns' displayed immense confidence in Njoku last offseason when they gave him a franchise tag and then signed him to a four-year extension. It was a bit surprising on the heels of back-to-back years with modest receiving production while sharing snaps with fellow tight end Austin Hooper. But then with Hooper moving to Tennessee last year, Njoku took over a three-down role and was on pace for career highs in nearly every significant receiving category before lower-body injuries cost him three full games and parts of two others in the middle of the year. Njoku nonetheless managed personal bests for receptions (58) and catch rate (72.5 percent) and fell only 11 yards shy (628) of his 2018 total. Njoku turns 27 this summer - he's young for a seventh-year pro - and should have a similarly crucial role in the Browns offense, creating upside for big-time production if Deshaun Watson gets back to his Houston level of play at QB. There's more competition for targets after the Browns added WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman and TE Jordan Akins, but the new additions won't necessarily threaten Njoku's standing as a three-down tight end who rarely leaves the field. A more comfortable Watson could see Njoku score more than last year's four touchdowns.
- Round 13, Pick 151 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1249 - 2022 Rank: 173
- Round 14, Pick 163 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1585 - 2022 Rank: 258
- Round 15, Pick 175 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 72 - 2022 Rank: 6
Lawrence made a second-year leap under new coach Doug Pederson, posting a 25:8 TD:INT after mustering a 12:17 mark during his forgettable rookie season. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft enters his third season as an established top-10 fantasy QB, but Lawrence's ceiling is higher than that, as he still has a few obvious areas for further improvement. Lawrence's 7.0 YPA in 2022 ranked a pedestrian 18th, and the underrated runner mustered only 291 yards on the ground after rushing for 334 as a rookie, though Lawrence increased his rushing TD total from two to five. He'll also be working with an improved supporting cast in 2023, as the Jaguars added WR Calvin Ridley - who had 1,374 receiving yards for the Falcons in 2020 but sat out 2022 entirely due to a gambling suspension - while retaining their top four skill position players from last season (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne). Playing in the underwhelming AFC South could be both a blessing and a curse for Lawrence. While the Jaguars are favored to repeat as division champs, they will likely spend the majority of their six games against the Titans, Colts and Texans playing from a lead, thus potentially limiting Lawrence's volume after he attempted 670 passes last year - sixth-most in the NFL.
- Round 16, Pick 187 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 142 - 2022 Rank: 37
Cook had strong season numbers last year, but as the season wore on, he began to look like a running back in decline. Although he started the season with six games between 90 and 119 rushing yards in Weeks 1 through 10, he only had two games with at least 72 yards in his last nine games (including playoffs ). His 69 rushing yards per game was his lowest total since 2018. He also lost his explosive element. He only rushed for more than 20 yards on 1.8 percent of his carries. After the Vikings released him in June, Cook signed with the Jets in August to provide depth behind Breece Hall. But Hall is coming off a torn ACL and might not be ready for Week 1. If not, then Cook would step into the lead-back role. Even when Hall is healthy, Cook should siphon a fair amount of touches. But Cook's best days are likely behind him, and a committee role would lower his fantasy value along with his declining skills.
- Round 17, Pick 199 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 45 - 2022 Rank: 280
Cook's role was limited as a rookie, but he showcased impressive efficiency (5.7 YPC) in those contained flashes. The departure of Devin Singletary should make it easy for Cook to build upon last season's 89 carries and 32 targets, though new arrival Damien Harris represents significant competition, especially for between-the-tackles and goal-line work. Cook's best path to production will be to translate his efficiency to the receiving game, though he didn't exactly impress in that respect as a rookie. Cook caught just 65.6 percent of his targets for 5.6 YPT last season, but as he was never more than a rotational back at Georgia, he could benefit even more than the usual RB from a second offseason to get up to speed at the NFL level. Veteran Latavius Murray is also capable of rotating in for carries. And Josh Allen's elite rushing abilities further reduce the opportunities up for grabs in Buffalo's backfield. A scenario where Cook truly emerges isn't impossible, but he'll need to distinguish himself from the crowd.
- Round 18, Pick 211 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 30 - 2022 Rank: 42
Last year, Jones was typically drafted as a top-10 running back. He ended the season with 1,516 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. That made Jones a very good early pick. So what happened this offseason? He took a $5 million pay cut. The big difference in the offense is that Aaron Rodgers is out and Jordan Love is in at quarterback. Rodgers was excellent when throwing to running backs, though we don't know how Love will be in that capacity. In early drafts, Jones is being selected outside of the top-15 running backs. His stock may be dropping because he's entering his age-28 season. In addition, fantasy managers may not be excited about the direction of the offense with Rodgers gone. Regardless, Jones has averaged over five yards per carry over his career, including a 5.3 mark last year. In addition, he's posted at least 355 receiving yards in the last four years. He had taken on the lead role over AJ Dillon last year, but once Jones was dealing with late-season injury issues, Dillon cut significantly into the workload. Jones may be the best player on the Green Bay offense, and the coaching staff may need to make him the focal point. If they do, Jones would become a great value in fantasy drafts.
- Round 19, Pick 223 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 58 - 2022 Rank: 350
Mattison's value in the last few years has simply been that he did pretty well when Dalvin Cook missed time. However, he was inconsistent in the games he had to take over as a starter. With Cook no longer on the team, Mattison enters the season as the lead running back. As he's shown in limited opportunities, the weekly upside can be great, but without him having a consistent role in the past, it's unclear how he'll function in that role. He's never had more than 134 carries in any of his four years in the league. After averaging 4.6 and 4.5 yards per carry in his first two years, he dropped to 3.8 and 3.7 in the last two years. Although he had an impressive 79th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was only in the 34th percentile in yards after contact, which may mean that some of his early-career explosiveness has been lacking. He could have competition from players the team has drafted in each of the past two years, Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride, in addition to Kene Nwangwu. Mattison is attractive for fantasy based on the potential for heavy volume. However, his recent production and potential competition could be problematic.
- Round 20, Pick 235 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 52 - 2022 Rank: 1270
Ford will enter training camp as Nick Chubb's backup after the Browns opted against re-signing both Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson. A fifth-round pick last year, Ford was limited mainly to kick returns as a rookie. However, in 2021 he had an impressive final collegiate season at Cincinnati with 20 touchdowns and more than 1,500 scrimmage yards. Prior to that, Ford played ahead of eventual third-round pick Brian Robinson at Alabama. Ford has average size for an NFL RB at 5-10, 210, and he was clocked at 4.46 seconds in the 40-yard dash last spring. The Browns seem to be believers, with 2021 sixth-round pick Demetric Felton representing Ford's most serious competition for playing time behind Chubb unless the team signs a noteworthy veteran over the summer.
- Round 21, Pick 247 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 64 - 2022 Rank: 71
McLaurin has posted four straight strong seasons in the NFL despite playing with a litany of unimpressive quarterbacks that includes Case Keenum, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell will get a chance this year to stop the carousel and establish himself as the Commanders' QB of the future, but until he proves himself, McLaurin's ceiling could remain capped even if his floor seems rock solid. There are reasons for optimism even beyond Howell's development, however. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy brings an explosive scheme with him from Kansas City, and second-year wideout Jahan Dotson could give defenses someone else to account for downfield. McLaurin has the measurables and skills to take another step forward in his production if things click with Washington's new-look passing game, but at 27 years old his window to make that leap could be closing.
- Round 22, Pick 259 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 3 - 2022 Rank: 28
Hill's record of exceptional on-field play has been consistent enough that his first year in Miami may actually be flying under the radar. Wide receivers usually see a dip in production in their first year with a new team, but Hill's inaugural season with the Dolphins saw him rack up a career-high 1,710 receiving yards (11th most in NFL history) to go with eight total touchdowns. The speedster managed that feat despite enduring tumultuous injuries at the quarterback position, and catching passes from a third-stringer by the end of the season. Part of the credit needs to go to coach Mike McDaniel's outstanding offensive scheme, and to Tua Tagovailoa's play under center. But the ultimate takeaway is that Hill is a game-breaker still in his prime. In 17 games last season, Hill broke 100 yards on seven occasions and led the entire NFL with 3.20 yards per route run. He seems a likely candidate for positive touchdown regression, especially if Tagovailoa can put together an fully healthy season. With Jaylen Waddle present to keep defenses honest but no other target competition of real significance, Hill finds himself in the perfect situation to once again produce Top-5 wide receiver stats.
- Round 23, Pick 271 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 279 - 2022 Rank: 601
Gray is a useful structural player for the Chiefs and a legitimately good athlete who demands honest acknowledgment from the defense when running routes. The problem is that Gray is easily neutralized as a receiver, and there's not much room for him to operate in the first place with Travis Kelce around. Even if Kelce were to miss time, Gray wouldn't be able to do the things Kelce does. There's no shame in that - no one can do what Kelce does - but at 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, Gray is built more like a fullback than a true tight end. Despite his limitations from scrimmage, Gray appears locked into a regular role in the Chiefs offense after logging 576 snaps last year.
- Round 24, Pick 283 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1236 - 2022 Rank: 329
Werner looked to be in for a breakout 2022 season, as he posted 71 tackles and three passes defended through the first eight games. However, the 2021 second-round pick went on to suffer a significant ankle injury in Week 9, limiting him to suiting up in just three of New Orleans' final eight games. Despite that setback and playing fewer snaps than his rookie season, Werner still put up career-best production in 2022. In addition to solid tackle totals and work in coverage, he also forced two fumbles. After fellow off-ball linebacker Kaden Elliss left in free agency this offseason, Werner should headline the Saints' relatively thin linebacking corps alongside four-time All-Pro middle linebacker Demario Davis. If he can stay healthy, 2023 could be his true breakout campaign.
- Round 25, Pick 295 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 545 - 2022 Rank: 950
- Round 26, Pick 307 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 282 - 2022 Rank: 411
Claypool was traded midseason from the Steelers to the Bears last year. He played seven games with Chicago but had only 14 receptions for 140 yards as a part-timer in a run-heavy offense. This season, Claypool should slot in behind DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney as the third option in the passing attack. Tight end Cole Kmet will be involved as well, and Claypool will have to work for targets. At 6-foot-4, 238, with 4.42 speed, Claypool has both the size and speed to grow into a big role. Of course, Claypool didn't show much improvement during his years with the Steelers, so it's possible that a breakout will never occur.
- Round 27, Pick 319 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 260 - 2022 Rank: 234
Although he was probably overmatched as a WR3 and has limited big-play ability in general, Palmer provides the Chargers with good, versatile depth behind the lead trio of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and rookie first-round pick Quentin Johnston. Now in a more suitable swing backup role, Palmer's efficiency should improve with lessened exposure. This is all to say that Palmer's fantasy value is on the downswing with Johnston on the team, but it should make the Chargers offense better overall. After drawing 107 targets on 870 snaps last year, something more in the range of 50 targets on 500 snaps should be expected if all of Allen, Williams and Johnston stay healthy. It's even conceivable that Palmer could lose some snaps and/or targets to fourth-round pick Derius Davis. That said, Palmer would be the first man up if any of Allen, Williams or Johnston should miss time. The veterans Allen and Williams both have lengthy injury histories, so Palmer has high upside as far as the backup category goes.
- Round 28, Pick 331 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 6 - 2022 Rank: 35
Diggs' couldn't have asked for a better career development than being traded to Buffalo back in 2020, as each of his three seasons with the Bills resulted in more receiving yards and more catches than any of his five years in Minnesota. Heading into his age-30 season, Diggs is coming off three straight Pro Bowls and a 2022 campaign that saw him set a new career-high TD mark with 11 scores, including three in Week 2 alone. As the clear No. 1 target for Josh Allen, Diggs has averaged 112.7 catches for 1,396.3 yards and 9.7 touchdowns per season in his time with the Bills, solidifying himself as one of the few true alpha wideouts in the league. First-round rookie TE Dalton Kincaid a crowded cast of complementary options, but none of Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir or Dawson Knox are a true threat to Diggs' target share. As he approaches his age-30 season, remember that Diggs will some day begin to slow down. But he hasn't shown any signs of that yet. For now, the veteran is attached to an elite quarterback and established as the unquestioned No. 1 option amid his offense.
- Round 29, Pick 343 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 178 - 2022 Rank: 276
Knox managed a similar receiving line from 2021 to 2022, hovering within the 500-yard range each season, with the exception of his touchdown total dropping from nine to six. He earned his first Pro Bowl with scores in each of Buffalo's last four games, plus the team's playoff opener. Knox has momentum and clear chemistry with Allen on his side, making him a lock to retain a key role on offense for the Bills, but the selection of first-round rookie TE Dalton Kincaid clouds things. Though Knox is under contract for three more seasons, Kincaid represents Buffalo's future at the position, and he could begin competing for snaps as early as Year 1. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis remain the top options in this passing game, making Knox the No. 3 look for Allen at best, with the danger of Kincaid earning work out of the slot. In all likelihood, the best path for Knox to maintain valuable production will be in the end zone.
- Round 30, Pick 355 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1299 - 2022 Rank: -
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
