In the EndZone Dynasty league, Časovi ljubavi took their shot at fantasy glory from the 6th spot in the draft order. Armed with 30 rounds and a C+ draft grade, they set out to assemble a team that would leave their opponents lovestruck. With a projected record of 7-7-0 and a 6th place finish, it seems Časovi ljubavi may have some work to do to turn their draft day romance into a lasting fantasy relationship.
While their draft may not have been a grand display of passion, there were a few sparks that caught our attention. The best pick of the night goes to Časovi ljubavi for selecting Derek Carr at 54, well below their ADP of 129. This steal of a pick could be the key to igniting their team's success. On the other hand, their worst pick was Dalton Kincaid at 6, a reach considering their ADP of 124. Perhaps Časovi ljubavi got caught up in the heat of the moment and let their heart lead the way. With 9 players drafted, significantly more than the league average of 2.6, Časovi ljubavi seems to have taken a quantity over quality approach. Only time will tell if this strategy will lead to a heartwarming victory or a heartbreaking defeat.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 6 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 107 - 2022 Rank: -
Kincaid was selected as the No. 1 tight end off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, No. 25 overall, by virtue of his pass-catching chops. Dawson Knox is already established as a red zone threat and capable blocker, and he's spent years building chemistry with Josh Allen, meaning it could be difficult for Kincaid to get a foothold out of the gate. Of course, the draft capital invested in Kincaid solidifies him as Buffalo's future, and though rookies at his position usually get off to a slow start, Kincaid is a rare talent. He could be capable of taking the field at the same times as Knox on occasion, by virtue of operating out of the slot, as long as he's able to get up to speed at the NFL level early. Buffalo's offense is high-octane enough to feed multiple mouths, but in the end, it's more likely that Kincaid emerges down the stretch than in the early weeks of the season.
- Round 2, Pick 18 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 147 - 2022 Rank: -
The Chiefs surprised most when they selected Rice in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft (55th overall), as the former SMU star was more so expected to be a Day 3 selection. The Chiefs might have been onto something, though, because Rice was a very productive player at SMU and his athletic testing at the combine was better than expected (4.51-second 40, 41-inch vertical at 6-foot-1, 204). Not just that, but Patrick Mahomes requested that the Chiefs select Rice at some point in the draft. In addition to his springy athleticism, Rice plays with a physicality that makes him a threat both at the catch point and as a ballcarrier after the catch. Fantasy drafters might be leery of Rice's rookie season after Skyy Moore disappointed as a second-round pick in 2022, but it's worth noting that Rice has a more versatile skill set than Moore. Whereas Moore can only realistically earn snaps in the slot, Rice can credibly compete for reps at any wide receiver position in the Chiefs offense.
- Round 3, Pick 30 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 257 - 2022 Rank: 95
Hill remained in the hybrid role he's been in for years. But last year, his primary job was running the ball. He threw 19 passes and caught nine balls, but he rushed 96 times. HIll was excellent as a runner, averaging a career-high 6.0 yards per carry. Hill will realize his best fantasy value in leagues where he is TE-eligible. But going into his age-33 season, it's fair to question whether he'll enter the decline phase of his career. However, he didn't show those signs last year. Consistent usage is probably the bigger problem, especially if new Saint QB Derek Carr stays healthy. Hill could see an increase in work if Alvin Kamara receives league discipline based on his July 31 court case from a battery charge. Hill is an intriguing upside pick should you miss out on the more standard, Top-10 tight end options.
- Round 4, Pick 42 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1160 - 2022 Rank: 81
- Round 5, Pick 54 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 117 - 2022 Rank: 20
Carr threw 24 or fewer TD passes in five of the last six years. He also has been held to fewer than 29 TD passes in nine of 10 seasons with a career high of 32 in 2015. It speaks volumes that the Raiders basically sent him home for the last three games of last season, eventually letting him walk with no real backup plan or compensation in return. Joey Bosa called it out a couple of years ago when he said that Carr folds under pressure. Last year, Carr had good blocking from his tackles, though the interior was a mess. Now with the Saints, he'll have solid RT play from Ryan Ramczyk. But unless the other linemen make jumps in previous effectiveness, this line will be a problem for Carr. Expect the Saints to hope their defense can keep them competitive. Also, look for a slow pace on offense with an emphasis on the running game when possible. The downfield passing could be a problem due to the OL, so Carr will need to have success in the short and intermediate areas. He'll likely be a borderline top-24 QB.
- Round 6, Pick 66 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 230 - 2022 Rank: 146
Sometimes, an offense can be too good, at least when it comes to providing value for its kicker. Elliott led the league in PATs in 2022, but he saw only 23 field-goal attempts as the Eagles' efficiency in the red zone and aggressiveness in going for the big play helped carry the team to the Super Bowl, but didn't leave it settling for three points often. There's little reason to think Elliott's opportunities will increase significantly this season. Philadelphia's scheme and main skill players, including quarterback Jalen Hurts, are unchanged, and coach Nick Siranni will keep calling Hurts' numbers at the goal line until defenses prove they can stop him. Elliott has a decent fantasy floor due to all those PATs, but his upside is lacking.
- Round 7, Pick 78 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 400 - 2022 Rank: 268
- Round 8, Pick 90 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 9, Pick 102 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 10, Pick 114 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 11, Pick 126 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 12, Pick 138 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 13, Pick 150 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 14, Pick 162 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 15, Pick 174 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 16, Pick 186 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1117 - 2022 Rank: 661
Al-Shaair has had an impressive rise in his professional career, progressing from undrafted free agent to a key figure in the 49ers defense. Primarily a special teams contributor for the two seasons of his career, Al-Shaair emerged as an impressive per-game producer in both 2021 and 2022. The biggest issue for him has been his ability to stay on the field, as he's played only 25 games combined across the last two seasons. In that same span, he racked up a combined 146 tackles with two sacks, five passes defended, and two picks. Even when healthy, the 49ers used Al-Shaair in a rotational role due to their impressive defensive personnel. That isn't the case in Tennessee -- especially after the departure of David Long - so Al-Shaair should have the chance to further improve his production if he can stay on the field.
- Round 17, Pick 198 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 18 - 2022 Rank: 15
It seems like Henry's decline is predicted every year, but the 29-year-old running back continues to churn out stellar seasons, and he made some major strides as a pass catcher last year that could help the bruising runner age more gracefully. Henry set career highs last season in targets (41), catches (33) and receiving yards (398) in 2022, nearly doubling his previous best of 206 receiving yards from 2019. Last season, Henry also churned out 1,538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on a league-high 349 carries - numbers right in line with his averages from the previous three seasons. The foot injury that limited Henry to eight games in 2021 is firmly in the rearview mirror, and he looked as spry as ever in 2022, as his 10 carries of 20-plus yards marked the second-highest such total of his career. There are concerns over how many scoring opportunities Henry will get given the state of Tennessee's passing game, and it's fair to wonder if this will be the year that his massive workloads finally catch up to him. But those same concerns haven't stopped Henry before, and he should once again get all the touches he can handle as the focal point of the Titans offense.
- Round 18, Pick 210 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2396 - 2022 Rank: 22
Chubb is considered by many to be the top runner in the league, regularly topping 5.0 yards per carry despite getting a lot of work in situations where the defense expects a run or only needs to defend the final few yards of the field. On the other hand, Chubb's fantasy output has been somewhat limited by Kareem Hunt playing a lot of snaps and receiving most of Cleveland's RB targets. Although Chubb has been effective with his limited receiving opportunities, he simply hasn't been given the chance to accumulate many targets. The Browns may finally give Chubb more work as a pass catcher now that Hunt is no longer on the team, even if they ultimately settle on Jerome Ford or Demetric Felton as the back of choice for obvious passing situations. Should that happen, Chubb will be positioned for his best fantasy year yet, especially if QB Deshaun Watson regains his Houston form and buoys the entire offense. Chubb is already an annual candidate to lead the league in rushing yards and could now enter the mix to finish first in total yards and/or touchdowns. Even if things don't break in his favor, Chubb should retain his floor as an above-average fantasy starter thanks to both volume and efficiency on the ground.
- Round 19, Pick 222 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 66 - 2022 Rank: 174
London had a great start and a great finish to his rookie season, but the nine games that fell between those periods of production were uninspiring. In the first three games of the season, the eighth overall pick averaged 5.3 receptions for 71 yards and scored two touchdowns. Over the last five games of the year, he fell below 70 yards just once. In between those two stretches, he had 40 or fewer yards in nine consecutive games. Some of his downswing may have been due to Marcus Mariota being the QB, especially after defenses had an idea how the Falcons wanted to 'run' their offense. However, the fact that London played his best football with Desmond Ridder under center bodes well for his future. Utilized both outside and in the slot, London was able to win matchups even when defenses focused on him after TE Kyle Pitts suffered a season-ending injury. London's overall numbers didn't look great, but he had enough big games to show that he has the makings of a star. While the Falcons figure to sport a run-first offense again, it's a safe bet London and Pitts dominate whatever volume the passing game provides.
- Round 20, Pick 234 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 42 - 2022 Rank: 144
Watson dealt with a nagging injury to start last season and didn't really come on until the second half of the season. He had an incredible stretch of four games between weeks 10 and 13 when he posted 323 yards, 49 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He was still good down the stretch, posting between 46 and 49 yards in each of his last four games, though he didn't score during that span. His speed is difference making, but his route running is still questionable. The drop off from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love could be problematic for him. However, he should be the clear No. 1 receiver, so he should get targeted often. But he's difficult to predict because if he doesn't improve his route running, defenses already understand that he can get over the top, which will allow them to prepare for that. Those who believe he'll figure out the route running, should project him aggressively, but that's not a guarantee to happen. Those who aren't sold on Watson building his versatility may require a more conservative projection than many analysts who are focusing solely on the upside.
- Round 21, Pick 246 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1112 - 2022 Rank: 49
Oluokun began his career more as a special teams ace rather than defensive stopper while in Atlanta. However, he has led the league in tackles in each of his two seasons with the Jaguars, posting 192 and 184 tackles, respectively. A bit more under the radar is his work in coverage, as he's broken up 11 combined passes across the last two campaigns. In addition to his statistical impact, Oluokun is a leader of the Jaguars' defense. He has served as a captain and also helped turn around the culture of the team after the departure of coach Urban Meyer. The linebacker is entering the final year of his deal with Jacksonville, but there's little reason to doubt that Oluokun will again be among the league's most productive inside linebackers.
- Round 22, Pick 258 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1116 - 2022 Rank: 210
Baker doesn't have the gaudy tackle total of some of his fellow inside linebackers, but he's turned in reliable production across all five seasons of his career. He's notched no fewer than 79 stops - that mark came in his rookie season - and has three 100-tackle campaigns on his ledger. Unlike most other inside linebackers, he also has pass-rush upside, tallying at least four sacks in each of the last three years. Baker has also proven reliable in coverage, breaking up four passes in three different seasons. Baker could find more room to make plays in 2023 as the new defensive coordinator introduces his system and playmaker Bradley Chubb gets fully integrated into the defensive scheme.
- Round 23, Pick 270 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 509 - 2022 Rank: 181
Baker rivals and perhaps exceeds Minkah Fitzpatrick as one of the most exciting defensive playmakers in the league. He's picked off seven passes across his last three seasons combined and has forced at least one fumble in all but one of his campaigns in the NFL. That's all true without discussing his more routine plays, as Baker has also racked up triple-digit tackles four times in the last five years. While his performance on the field is covered, the 27-year-old's future in Arizona is a bit unclear. As could be expected based on the production laid out above, Baker expects to be compensated. Presumably, after extension talks didn't go as hoped, he requested a trade this offseason. Meanwhile, new Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon appears to be preparing for the safety's departure by shifting Isaiah Simmons to the secondary. That could become a problem for Baker's role if he isn't moved, but it would be foolish for any team not to take full advantage of his talent.
- Round 24, Pick 282 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 387 - 2022 Rank: 307
- Round 25, Pick 294 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1543 - 2022 Rank: 255
- Round 26, Pick 306 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 101 - 2022 Rank: 3
Last season was Burrow's second in a row leading the NFL in on-target percentage (76.7) while finishing second in completion percentage (68.3). However, there was a slight dip in these stats in 2022 compared to the previous year, which is perhaps surprising because Burrow decreased his rate of deep throws significantly. In 2022, Burrow threw 20-plus yards downfield on only 7.5 percent of his attempts, ranking him 30th in the league. Meanwhile, his rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage rose to 19.6 percent. Nevertheless, he finished as QB4 in fantasy with the help of five touchdown runs and 257 rushing yards. Burrow also remained efficient on deep throws, tying Geno Smith for the highest on-target rate on 20-plus-yard attempts (60.0 percent). The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line did not meet preseason expectations, which could explain Burrow's increase in dump-offs. However, the team has since signed standout left tackle Orlando Brown and moved Jonah Williams to right tackle. Burrow's top three wide receivers, including Ja'marr Chase, are still on the team, and Irv Smith is replacing Hayden Hurst at tight end. Burrow's efficiency could improve, and even with some expected regression in his rushing touchdowns he stands a decent chance to remain in the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.
- Round 27, Pick 318 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 145 - 2022 Rank: 615
Mitchell is an incredibly talented running back. He had an excellent 89th percentile broken tackle rate, and when he was in a rotation of Christian McCaffrey, he often piled up significant yardage in limited opportunities. However, he was injured three separate times last year. And that came after a rookie season in which he missed time as well. Obviously, injuries are difficult to predict, but the amount of injuries he's had in such a short time makes him a significant injury risk. And the fact that he was getting hurt in a backup role is even more concerning. If he was able to stay healthy and had to take over the starting role for McCaffrey for a period of time, he would be a strong fantasy option. However, Mitchell carries quite a bit of risk.
- Round 28, Pick 330 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 187 - 2022 Rank: 382
Injuries could well end up being the story of Gallup's career when it's all said and done. A third-round pick in 2018, the Colorado State product topped 1,100 receiving yards in his second NFL season and appeared poised for a big run in an explosive offense, but Gallup hasn't sniffed that kind of production since as he and quarterback Dak Prescott have rarely been 100 percent healthy at the same time. An ACL tear that shut the wideout down in the second half of 2021 also seemed to hamper Gallup in 2022, and he didn't have the same ability to gain separation once he was back in action. The Cowboys hope a healthy offseason will allow him to return to form, but the team also hedged its bets by trading for Brandin Cooks to be the No. 2 receiver behind CeeDee Lamb. Gallup has contributed in the No. 3 role before, but with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over play-calling duties from departed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, it's possible the Dallas passing game won't be able to support three receivers again to that extent.
- Round 29, Pick 342 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 10 - 2022 Rank: 61
After being eased into his role during the first half of his 2021 rookie season, St. Brown has been an excellent fantasy producer. Last year, he had a strong weekly scoring floor, as he was targeted at least nine times and posted at least 60 yards in 12 games. St. Brown ran 76% of his snaps from the slot and had an impressive 72nd percentile yards after the catch rate. Despite missing one game while also seeing very limited snaps in the following two games, St. Brown ended the season with 149 targets. That target total ranked 9th in the NFL. There is a strong chance St. Brown maintains that high target count in 2023. Fellow wideout Jameson Williams has been suspended due to a gambling issue. And talented tight end T.J Hockenson is now in Minnesota. St. Brown is clearly quarterback Jared Goff's favorite option. Based on what St. Brown displayed in his first two seasons, he should be in the conversation as a top-15 selection in fantasy drafts, though in many PPR formats he'll often go in the first 10 picks.
- Round 30, Pick 354 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
