In a shocking turn of events, the Frozen Tundra Starrs, despite having the first overall pick in the draft, managed to earn a dismal draft grade of D. With a projected finish of 11th and a projected record of 4-10-0, it seems like the only thing colder than their team name is their luck. The Starrs' draft strategy seemed to be to defy convention at every turn, as they made some questionable picks that left other owners scratching their heads.
While the Starrs did manage to make one solid pick with Bijan Robinson at the first overall spot, their draft quickly went downhill from there. Their worst pick, Roschon Johnson, was selected at 13, a whopping 120 spots higher than their ADP. It's safe to say that the Starrs are taking a big gamble on this player. Adding insult to injury, the team also managed to draft four players from the same team, which is sure to cause some headaches when bye weeks and injuries hit. With a total of five players drafted, well above the league average of 2.6, the Starrs are clearly marching to the beat of their own drum. It remains to be seen whether their unconventional approach will pay off or leave them frozen out of the playoffs.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 1 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: -
One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.
- Round 2, Pick 13 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 120 - 2022 Rank: -
Johnson was selected in the fourth round of the 2023 draft. In the days after the draft, much of the conversation by the organization about Johnson centered around his leadership and special-teams ability. It was also mentioned that he could be good in pass protection. When a team doesn't first talk about the player's ability at the position he was drafted, that's a massive red flag. Although he's a bigger back at 6', 219 pounds, he ran below average in his 40-yard-dash time and explosiveness drills. Although he forced many missed tackles in college, he took a significant number of his runs to the outside. That's unlikely to be a recipe for success at the NFL level, especially for a slower runner. Johnson may eventually become a staple in the Chicago backfield, but it may be difficult for him to move past D'Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert this year.
- Round 3, Pick 25 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1166 - 2022 Rank: 140
Milano is as steady as they come and served in a prime role in the Bills' defense since 2018. He's topped 100 tackles only once in his career, which doesn't keep pace with his peers at the position. However, Milano stands out for his ability in coverage, as he has 38 pass breakups and eight picks across 85 career games. He inked a two-year extension with the Buffalo this offseason and is still in his prime heading into his age-29 campaign. Milano is set to once again anchor a strong defense while working as a core piece at outside linebacker.
- Round 4, Pick 37 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 172 - 2022 Rank: 188
Boyd has finished with 750-to-850 receiving yards in each season since the Bengals drafted QB Joe Burrow and WR Tee Higgins (2020). Earlier in his career, Boyd had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2018-19, operating as Cincinnati's No. 1 receiver for a time. Now the team's No. 3 wide receiver, Boyd has partially made up for a huge decrease in target volume by upping his catch rates and yards per target throughout Burrow's tenure. This reduction in volume seems unlikely to reverse in a meaningful way unless Higgins and/or Ja'Marr Chase miss(es) a large chunk of the season. Even then, it's worth noting that Boyd averaged only five targets and 35.5 yard in the four games Chase missed last season. Higgins, on the other hand, averaged nine targets and 92.8 yards during that period. Boyd is still a viable option in deeper fantasy setups where his relatively high floor has value, but managers in shallower leagues are probably better off using a late pick on a young receiver with more risk/reward.
- Round 5, Pick 49 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 127 - 2022 Rank: -
The Packers needed a lead TE, so they drafted Musgrave and Tucker Kraft in the second and third rounds of this year's NFL Draft. Of the two, Musgrave is more of a seam stretcher. He needs development in all areas, and he could have significant struggles as a rookie. It's probable he finishes outside the top-24 tight ends, and he'll likely go undrafted in many fantasy leagues. While he'll likely be limited to a dynasty league option in 2023, it's still worth keeping an eye on quarterback Jordan Love's progression and the offensive scheme as a whole to see if Musgrave could eventually work his way up to a fantasy streaming possibility.
- Round 6, Pick 61 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 190 - 2022 Rank: 72
Koo has proven to be one of the league's finest kickers over the course of three and a half seasons with Atlanta. Despite being tied to subpar offenses, he's often been a top fantasy performer, albeit with some help from the team's dome. He has demonstrated his prowess from 50-plus yards, boasting an impressive record of 20-for-25, and he's also gone 31-for-39 from 40-49 yards. Koo's talent keeps him on the fantasy map again this year even with Falcons QB Desmond Ridder projecting as one of the lesser starting quarterbacks in the league. If the Falcons offense can merely become competent behind a strong running game, Koo is good enough to place among the top fantasy kickers.
- Round 7, Pick 73 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 1858 - 2022 Rank: 228
- Round 8, Pick 85 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 9, Pick 97 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 10, Pick 109 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 11, Pick 121 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 12, Pick 133 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 13, Pick 145 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 265 - 2022 Rank: 473
In 2022, Marshall started his second season on a low note but gradually became more involved, making 28 catches (out of 47 targets) for 490 yards and one touchdown in 14 games. This offseason, the Panthers traded their top wideout, DJ Moore, to the Bears. Even so, Marshall is far from assured of a starting job after the Panthers signed WRs Adam Thielen and DJ Chark and used a second-round pick on Jonathan Mingo. There is a chance Marshall emerges as one of the better options from that group, considering he's a recent second-round pick (2021) and still only 23 years old. Marshall and Chark might end up competing for the same snaps and targets, offering similar builds and skill sets, in addition to some coincidental similarities (both were second-round picks out of LSU). Thielen and Mingo, on the other hand, seem more likely to see passes in the short areas of the field.
- Round 14, Pick 157 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1179 - 2022 Rank: -
Barton was forced to bide his time in Seattle for most of his rookie contract, blocked from playing time by franchise legend Bobby Wagner. All told he started only five games in his first three years with the Seahawks. However, with the departure of Wagner, Barton finally had the chance to break out in 2022 and he took advantage to post 136 tackles in 17 games and 11 starts. He also chipped in two sacks and a pair of interceptions. In March, Barton settled for a one-year, $3.5 million contract in Washington, where he'll join Jamin Davis as the key to the middle of the Washington defense. Barton should get a lot of snaps and will have the opportunity to prove his 2022 production was no fluke.
- Round 15, Pick 169 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1195 - 2022 Rank: 78
- Round 16, Pick 181 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1207 - 2022 Rank: 124
Luvu entered the 2022 season known almost exclusively for his work on special teams. He had never totaled more than 43 tackles in any of his first four pro campaigns, but he enjoyed a breakout season with increased opportunity. Despite missing two games, he registered 111 stops to go with seven sacks - both marks were second on the Panthers - and four passes defended. Those numbers are impressive on their own, but he also displayed big-play ability by forcing a fumble and returning his only interception for a score. Looking forward, Luvu faces a transition to new coordinator Ejiro Evero's 3-4 scheme, but he is slated to start alongside Shaq Thompson at inside linebacker. Whether he can reproduce last year's success remains to be seen, but Luvu's stock nonetheless has never been higher.
- Round 17, Pick 193 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 149 - 2022 Rank: 945
Love is an unknown commodity for fantasy football this year. He's had 83 pass attempts during his short time in the league. Love will be taking over an offense that has questions at tight end and wide receiver. It's possible that Christian Watson will be a star, but it's also possible that he's just an outstanding deep threat. At 6-4, 219, Love has demonstrated decent mobility. That could give Love a stable rushing floor while the passing game rounds into form, though a larger sample size of rushing attempts would be nice. Last year, Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst seasons of his career. Whether that was due to decline or the talent that surrounded him is uncertain. Also, Green Bay has been a run-heavy team for the past couple years, and their quarterback pass attempts have been below league average. Drafting Love as a boom-or-bust option makes sense, due to the uncertainty that surrounds him. He also could be a player who gets better as the season moves forward and he gets more experience.
- Round 18, Pick 205 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 53 - 2022 Rank: 39
Sanders signed a four-year, $25 million contract with the Panthers in March, cashing in after a career year in 2022 which included 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground in 17 games for Philadelphia. He won't be playing in a top offense anymore, but with the Panthers, he'll make far more money and have a secure rushing workload. The Eagles had a variety of options at their disposal and would sometimes go away from Sanders in the game plan, which made his production inconsistent even in 2022. He'll likely average fewer yards per carry with the Panthers, but he may also get more overall touches after averaging between 13.5 and 16.4 per game in four seasons with the Eagles. Chuba Hubbard looms as a capable alternative, though he might get the bulk of his work on passing downs where Sanders is less useful. While that might come with the risk of getting phased out of the offense when the Panthers abandon the run, it's also possible Sanders gets more involved in the passing game (only 20 catches last year) on early downs.
- Round 19, Pick 217 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 76 - 2022 Rank: 167
Pickens, a 2022 second-round pick, had a sluggish and injury-ridden conclusion to his time at Georgia on account of an ACL tear suffered during spring practices in 2021. He recovered during his rookie season with the Steelers, fetching 52 receptions for 801 yards and four touchdowns. He made several remarkable catches and showed a knack for snagging contested ones, yet struggled with obtaining separation from cornerbacks. As a result, he drew only 84 targets in 17 games despite playing 882 snaps. At 6-foot-3, with 4.47 speed and strong hands, Pickens doesn't necessarily need to be a great route-runner to thrive. He does figure to make at least small steps forward in that regard, and he enters Year 2 locked in alongside Diontae Johnson and TE Pat Freiermuth as the main targets for QB Kenny Pickett. As bad as Pickett's overall numbers were last season, he showed progress throughout the year and figures to benefit from the Steelers' sizable offseason investment in blocking. There's also the matter of Johnson finishing with no TDs and fewer than 900 yards on nearly 150 targets last year, which would seem to point toward other players -- namely Pickens and Freiermuth -- taking on more of the team's receiving volume this season.
- Round 20, Pick 229 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 292 - 2022 Rank: 718
Taken in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Robinson was seen as the potential slot replacement for brittle veteran Sterling Shepard. While Shepard predictably got hurt early in the season, the rookie couldn't take advantage as he suffered two knee injuries of his own, including a season-ending ACL tear. Robinson didn't have elite speed or impressive measurables to begin with, so he likely can't afford to return less than 100 percent healthy if he wants to stay in the Giants' plans. New York also added Parris Campbell in the offseason on a one-year deal to make the slot receiver picture even murkier. If Robinson regains the form he flashed last year between knee injuries though, a stretch capped by a nine-reception, 100-yard performance during his final game of the year in Week 11, he could establish himself as the future of the team's receiving corps alongside 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt.
- Round 21, Pick 241 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 97 - 2022 Rank: 423
Doubs had a lot of opportunities early in the season when the Packers were aggressively trying to find an answer at receiver to complement Allen Lazard. Doubs impressed in some game, but often looked like the rookie that he was. It didn't help that Aaron Rodgers probably lost confidence in him from time to time. But due to a lack of weapons, Rodgers had to keep going back to him. Doubs then dealt with a high-ankle sprain that cost him time. If Doubs is to take a big second-year leap, it will be with a new quarterback in Jordan Love. If Love struggles, Doubs will as well, though he has an excellent opportunity to be a starting outside receiver across from Christian Watson, with Lazard joining Rodgers in New York. Doubs' season likely will hinge on how quickly Love develops.
- Round 22, Pick 253 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 109 - 2022 Rank: 289
During his second NFL season last year, Freiermuth's involvement as a pass catcher increased significantly compared to his rookie campaign. However, he dipped from seven touchdowns in 2021 to only two in 2022, suffering from poor QB play and Pittsburgh's overall struggles in the red zone. It was otherwise a strong year, as the 2021 second-round pick set new highs with 63 catches, 732 yards, and 98 targets. Freiermuth tied for fourth among tight ends in overall targets but finished with only 13 red-zone targets, falling well short of the 20 he had in 2021. He has not yet caught a touchdown from Kenny Pickett. The Steelers added more focus on their offensive line during the offseason, settling for WR Allen Robinson and third-round rookie TE Darnell Washington as additions at the skill positions. While Freiermuth sprained the ACL and MCL in his left knee during Pittsburgh's season finale, he did not require surgery to recover and is expected to participate in training camp as usual. He figures to be one of the team's top three pass catchers, alongside WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.
- Round 23, Pick 265 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1167 - 2022 Rank: 251
Campbell has been the model of consistency across his seven-year career in the NFL, topping 90 tackles in each of his last six. In part, his production has been dictated by model health, as he played 16 games in each season from 2017-2021. That run ended in 2022, when a knee injury cost Campbell four contests. However, his production was otherwise right on target, and he was on pace for 137 tackles if he'd played the same number of snaps as the year before. One unique area that Campbell has produced is in coverage, as he has two picks in three of the last four campaigns. Overall, he's been an excellent fit for coordinator Joe Barry's 3-4 scheme since the duo arrived in Green Bay in 2021, and Campbell has been free to focus on chasing after ball carriers.
- Round 24, Pick 277 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1006 - 2022 Rank: 294
- Round 25, Pick 289 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1408 - 2022 Rank: 184
- Round 26, Pick 301 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 24 - 2022 Rank: 2
Allen has been strikingly consistent the last three seasons, though his 4,283 passing yards in 2022 took a slight dip, after he finished with over 4,400 the previous two years. He's had 37, 36 and 35 passing touchdowns consecutively, and his 2022 rushing line of 124-762-7 was almost identical to 2021's mark. Consistency and excellence don't often overlap, but it's a feat that Allen has unquestionably managed. The Bills are likewise running it back with a relatively similar roster, despite having yet again failed to advance past the AFC divisional round, though the addition of first-round TE Dalton Kincaid certainly provides upside. Allen managed to excel in 2022 despite playing through a serious elbow injury, though he's expected to be fully healthy by Week 1. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis return as his top receivers, while tight ends Dawson Knox and Kincaid should perform well as a tandem, even if the learning curve for rookies at the position is steep. Damien Harris could be a more helpful power rusher than Devin Singletary, who departed in free agency, but the stage is set for Allen to once again thrive on the ground as much as through the air.
- Round 27, Pick 313 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 59 - 2022 Rank: 68
Conner overcame a rough team situation for the second year in a row to post excellent production. In 13 games, He totaled 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite terrible run blocking from the Cardinals, he was able to produce due to a 73rd percentile broken tackle rate and 72nd percentile yards after contact. His 4.3 yards per carry equaled his best total since 2018 when he was running behind a strong offensive line in Pittsburgh. He continues to be an excellent receiver, recording 65th percentile yards after the catch rate. His 46 receptions represented the second most of his career. Of course, Conner will miss time. He's missed between two and six games over the last six seasons, but as the running back position goes, that's not terrible either. He continues to be disrespected in fantasy drafts. it's likely that people overrate his injury history. It's also possible that they remember the weak start to the season that he had last year. But going into his age-28 season, he still should have another year of solid production. and as long as you're prepared for him missing some time, drafting him to be an RB2 makes sense.
- Round 28, Pick 325 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 67 - 2022 Rank: 726
Williams is racing to return to the field after his 2022 season cruelly ended with an ACL/LCL tear in Week 4, an injury that presumably led the Broncos to pursue Samaje Perine in free agency. Perine's contract is a modest one (two years, $7.5 million), so it's likely safe to assume that Broncos consider Perine a stopgap option until Williams is back to full strength. Once he's healthy Williams will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of the arrival of coach Sean Payton, who should prove to be a night-and-day improvement over the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. Through 21 career games, Williams has run for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns while adding 59 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns on 75 targets (78.7 percent catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). While those numbers don't jump off the page, they're pretty good, especially considering how bad the Denver offense was those two years. Perine should shift into a proper backup role once Williams' knee is ready to go, but it's tough to guess his specific timeline after Williams was a limited participant in May OTAs.
- Round 29, Pick 337 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 40 - 2022 Rank: 1457
Prior to sitting out most of the 2021 season to address mental health issues and subsequently being suspended for the 2022 campaign due to gambling, Ridley had established himself as an elite wide receiver. In his last full season, Ridley posted 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns with the Falcons. He'll likely take some time to get back up to game speed after the extended layoff, but Ridley has the skills to become the favorite target for rising star quarterback Trevor Lawrence in a Jacksonville passing game that also features WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, as well as TE Evan Engram. The 28-year-old Ridley should still be in his physical prime, but returning to elite form after an extended layoff isn't easy. For instance, former standout RB Le'Veon Bell was never the same after sitting out the 2018 season due to a contract dispute.
- Round 30, Pick 349 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 146 - 2022 Rank: 616
Selected 27th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft after a prolific college career, Bateman has seen his pro career defined by injuries. After undergoing abdominal surgery in the summer of his rookie season, Bateman missed the first five games. He then sustained a Lisfranc injury early last October, causing him to miss the final 11 weeks of the 2022 season. Bateman showed promise early last year in catching eight of 16 targets for 226 yards and two touchdowns in the first three weeks, supported by two long-distance scores on which his 4.39 speed was evident. Bateman is only 23 and remains a promising prospect, but he confronts greater competition for targets after the Ravens signed WRs Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor and spent a first-round pick on WR Zay Flowers. There should at least be more receiving production to go around in Baltimore this year, as the change in offensive coordinator from Greg Roman to Todd Monken implies a more pass-oriented offense. This modification gives Bateman a chance at a third-year breakout even with more competition for QB Lamar Jackson's attention.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
