In a draft that left fans scratching their heads, the Pozega Eagles managed to secure a D+ grade, signaling that mediocrity is their middle name. With a projected record of 5-9-0, it seems like the Eagles are aiming for the middle of the pack. Their draft order of 3rd didn't do them any favors, as they struggled to make the most of their picks across the 30 rounds. However, amidst the chaos, there was a glimmer of hope as they snagged Kareem Hunt at 111, surpassing his ADP of 132. Perhaps this underdog pick will be the saving grace for the Eagles.
While the Eagles managed to find a diamond in the rough, they also stumbled upon a colossal blunder. With the 3rd overall pick, they shockingly selected Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had an ADP of 111. It seems like the Eagles were determined to defy expectations, even if it meant making questionable choices. Additionally, the Eagles decided to put all their eggs in one basket by drafting four players from the same team. It's a bold strategy, but will it pay off? Only time will tell if the Eagles' faith in Aaron Rodgers, Quinnen Williams, Garrett Wilson, and Denzel Mims will lead them to victory or disaster. One thing's for sure, the Pozega Eagles are ready to spread their wings and fly... or at least attempt to.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 3 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 129 - 2022 Rank: -
Smith-Njigba was selected with the 20th pick in this year's draft, profiling as a difference-making slot receiver. Although his 40 time was unimpressive, he showed excellent agility at the NFL Combine, which is what great slot receivers need, with elite marks in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and short shuttle (3.93). His biggest roadblock to fantasy relevance is his landing spot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will take the majority of WR targets on a team that wants to dominate on the ground. Metcalf is the No. 1 receiver and Lockett, even in his 30s, is still playing at a high level. Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the third wide receiver it has lacked in recent years and could make an immediate impact in three-receiver sets.
- Round 2, Pick 15 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 126 - 2022 Rank: -
The Titans picked Spears in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft after an outstanding college career at Tulane that included 2,910 yards and 31 touchdowns on 427 carries (6.8 YPC) spread in 33 games. Elite production in the American Athletic Conference is far from a guarantee of success against NFL-level competition, especially since Spears' athletic profile is nothing special; he has 4.54 speed in a 5-foot-11, 201-pound frame. He may not be able to handle heavy workloads consistently at that size, but Spears probably won't get a chance to find that out for a few years, as workhorse Derrick Henry is firmly entrenched atop Tennessee's RB depth chart. Spears is the favorite to snag the primary backup role and begin his career operating in a change-of-pace capacity behind Henry. His main competition for the No. 2 spot is 2022 fourth-round pick Hassan Haskins, who had just 93 rushing yards as a rookie and was recently arrested following a domestic dispute.
- Round 3, Pick 27 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2601 - 2022 Rank: 13
The Rodgers era in Green Bay came to a less-than-ceremonious end, but following in the footsteps of Brett Favre before him, the future HOFer stays wearing green by moving on to the Jets. The 39-year-old didn't come cheap, costing New York a handful of early picks, but that will be unquestionably worth the investment if he can truly stabilize a plus roster that was held down last season by unconscionably poor QB play. There is a question of how much Rodgers has left in the tank, though, as his 12 interceptions in 2022 were the most he'd thrown since 2008, his first year as a starter, and just one off totaling his INT mark for the previous three seasons combined. His 3,695 were likewise a career-low mark for a full season. Much can be blamed on Rodgers' lack of playmakers in Green Bay, but it's not as though his arrival in New York comes without any concerns. The Jets' roster will put Rodgers in prime position to avoid another slump, at least, with Garret Wilson headlining an improved receiving corps. Wilson's 1,103 receiving yards as a rookie came in spite of league-worst QB play, while Allen Lazard joined Rodgers as a free agent, allowing speedster Mecole Hardman to slot in as the No. 3 man. If Breece Hall can get back to full speed from his ACL tear, Rodgers will command a plus grouping of offensive skill players, which when paired with Robert Saleh's defense should set the stage for a long awaited playoff run in New York.
- Round 4, Pick 39 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 169 - 2022 Rank: 56
Last year, Tucker's PAT volume decreased due to the Ravens' difficulty finishing off drives and putting the ball in the end zone. Naturally, he compensated by leading the league in field-goal attempts (43), field-goals made (37), and attempts from 50-plus yards (14). Even though he's averaged 7.2 tries from 50-plus yards in his 11 NFL seasons, Tucker remains the all-time leader in career FG percentage (90.5). He'll once again enter a season universally regarded as one of the top two or three fantasy options at his position, offering an unmatched combination of accuracy and leg strength.
- Round 5, Pick 51 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1787 - 2022 Rank: 230
- Round 6, Pick 63 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1301 - 2022 Rank: 214
- Round 7, Pick 75 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 560 - 2022 Rank: 216
- Round 8, Pick 87 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1308 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 9, Pick 99 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 2030 - 2022 Rank: 523
Woods shined when given extended opportunities as a rookie last season. Across the three games in which he played at least 60 percent of offensive snaps, the 2022 third-round pick caught 14 of 18 targets for 160 yards. Woods topped 40 percent of snaps only once over the remainder of the season while splitting reps with Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson. All three tight ends are set to return in 2023, plus the Colts drafted Will Mallory in the fifth round, but Woods should have the opportunity to earn a more significant role in his sophomore season. Woods scored three times as a rookie, and his 6-foot-7, 265-pound frame should make him an enticing red-zone target for the Colts' new QB, whether that's rookie fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew.
- Round 10, Pick 111 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 224 - 2022 Rank: 260
The Browns let Hunt walk this offseason after his numbers took a big dip in 2022. He averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and 4.8 yards per target -- both more than a yard off his pace from the previous season. In 2012, he rushed for five touchdowns in just eight games; last year he had three in 17 games. It might take an injury in training camp before a team calls on Hunt, but he likely will get another shot at some point.
- Round 11, Pick 123 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 1263 - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 12, Pick 135 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 13, Pick 147 - Bye
2023 Rank: - - 2022 Rank: -
- Round 14, Pick 159 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1310 - 2022 Rank: 171
- Round 15, Pick 171 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 220
When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.
- Round 16, Pick 183 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 49 - 2022 Rank: 142
Taylor has more fantasy risk than any of the top running backs this year thanks to offseason ankle surgery and a contract dispute. He started training camp on the PUP list, still working his way back to full strength after a season-ending high ankle sprain in Week 15 last year. His contract situation might be an even bigger issue. Taylor demanded a contract extension; the Colts refused but gave him permission to seek a trade. He's since moved to the regular-season PUP list, making him ineligible for the first four games of the season, though the Colts can still trade him in the meantime. If he returns to the Colts, he'll look for a delayed bounce-back year after last season's disappointment. Expectations were sky high heading into 2022 after he led the league in rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18) in 2021, but his season was derailed by injuries and poor play from the imploding Indianapolis offense. A Week 4 ankle sprain limited his effectiveness for a time, but his production also suffered from the ineptitude of the players around him -- the biggest culprit being QB Matt Ryan. Taylor's touchdowns dropped to four after he posted 12 and 20 in his first two seasons, and his 3.6 yards per target was less than half of his career average of 7.3. Quarterback remains a question mark for Indianapolis this season, but it's hard to imagine fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson faring worse than the now-retired Ryan. The big questions now are whether Taylor will be ready to play by Week 5 and if he'll still be a member of the Colts at that point.
- Round 17, Pick 195 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 13 - 2022 Rank: 19
There are very few players in NFL history who compare to Ekeler, and aside from maybe Jahmyr Gibbs, none are in the league today. Among active players Ekeler is one of a kind, and the Chargers offense would be in a lot of trouble without him. Ekeler has reached volume/efficiency thresholds as a pass catcher otherwise only matched historically by Marshall Faulk, so when a pass catcher that productive adds 25 rushing touchdowns over two years it's unsurprising that Ekeler is now a consensus first-round fantasy pick. Ekeler is too small to hold up with a big rushing workload (that's why he's not Faulk), but his per-carry returns are excellent and his effectiveness as a runner should never be questioned. As much as Ekeler might be vulnerable to rushing touchdown regression, it won't occur on the basis of ability - if the touchdown carries are there for the taking, Ekeler is still a great bet to claim them. After a brief contract standoff earlier in the offseason, Ekeler raised the white flag and clarified that he will report for training camp.
- Round 18, Pick 207 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 63 - 2022 Rank: 114
Wilson came on as a rookie sensation in 2022, topping 1,100 receiving yards despite being held back by bottom-of-the-barrel QB play. His winning Offensive Rookie of the Year was a tremendous accomplishment. It was a common sight for Jets fans to watch Wilson breaking wide open, only for the quarterback to either overlook him or miss a wide open throw. Aaron Rodgers, even if coming off a down year, is a huge upgrade over the combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White and an aged Joe Flacco, putting Wilson in prime position to make the leap forward in Year 2. Though Wilson finished 15th in receiving yards as a rookie, he nabbed only four touchdowns, a clear product of New York's limited offensive execution. Wilson's four scores were the worst mark against any receiver in the league with more than 1,100 yards last season, and Wilson has a demonstrable ability to threaten in the red zone. In his final season at Ohio State, Wilson was on the receiving end of 12 touchdowns.
- Round 19, Pick 219 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 95 - 2022 Rank: 241
Dotson came out of the gates firing as a rookie after being the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft, scoring four touchdowns in his first four NFL games, but a hamstring injury cut short his momentum for the next couple months. He found his groove again down the stretch, though, posting a 21-344-3 line from Week 13 on, and the Penn State product could be poised for a classic Year 2 breakout. While Terry McLaurin remains the Commanders' most reliable wideout, Dotson's speed and ability to make catches in traffic positions him as the better deep threat, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could take full advantage of those traits. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell also offers more upside than last year's starters, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke, did. Dotson saw one more target than McLaurin over those final five games of 2022, and he has a reasonable chance of emerging as the team's No. 1 receiver this season.
- Round 20, Pick 231 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 54 - 2022 Rank: 458
Injuries put a damper on Waller's numbers over the last two seasons, but in the two years prior to that he established himself as one of the NFL's most dangerous tight ends. Only Travis Kelce had more receiving yards at the position in 2019 and 2020. Injuries weren't the only things that seemed to limit Waller's production in 2022 though. He took a back seat to Davante Adams in the Raiders' offense, and Waller had trouble finding a fit in Josh McDaniels' scheme. An offseason trade to the Giants gives Waller a fresh start. While he's arguably the most talented pass-catcher quarterback Daniel Jones has ever had to work with, Brian Daboll's scheme has even less of a track record of TE production than McDaniels' offense. Waller will turn 31 in September, and while he could return to elite status this season as Jones' top option, he'll also carry a lot of risk even if he manages to stay healthy.
- Round 21, Pick 243 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1130 - 2022 Rank: 83
Wagner suited up for a team other than the Seahawks for the first time in 2022, as he signed with the division-rival Rams. He has managed at least 100 tackles in each of his 11 seasons as a pro and has proven he can remain productive as he heads into the back end of his career. In fact, he showed a new facet to his game, racking up a career-high six sacks with Los Angeles. Despite things going well away from Seattle on a personal level, Wagner returned to the Seahawks on a one-year deal this offseason. He'll certainly be locked into a starting role, and with Jordyn Brooks on the mend from an ACL tear, Wagner should have the chance to lead the team in tackles.
- Round 22, Pick 255 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1203 - 2022 Rank: 128
Jewell was limited to only two games in 2021 due to a torn pectoral, and he appeared to be in for another injury-marred season in 2022. He managed to suit up for only three of Denver's first seven games due to calf and knee injuries. However, he showed exactly what he's capable of when healthy across the second half of the campaign by racking up double-digit tackles across seven of his final nine matchups. All told, he managed a career-high 128 stops and surpassed the century mark for the second time in his career. Jewell is heading into the final year of his rookie contract, and he'll be locked into a starting inside linebacker along fellow prolific tackler Alex Singleton. Assuming health is on his side, Jewell is a decent bet to top 150 tackles to go along with some sacks, pass breakups, and forced fumbles.
- Round 23, Pick 267 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 536 - 2022 Rank: 141
- Round 24, Pick 279 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 50 - 2022 Rank: 58
Much of the discussion surrounding Kamara the past couple years has focused on a potential suspension, and the NFL finally made a decision in early August with the announcement of a three-game ban. Otherwise, Kamara is no longer the top-three running back he was the first few years of his career, though he's still recorded at least 1,300 scrimmage yards in each of his six seasons. The past two years he got more carries (240 and 223) but fewer targets (67, 77) after starting his career with four straight seasons of at least 97 targets and fewer than 200 carries. Much of that was related to the Saints transitioning to a run-first offense after Drew Brees' retirement, and it's possible Kamara shifts back toward more receiving work after the team signed a veteran QB (Derek Carr) and a 224-pound RB (Jamaal Williams) and spent a third-round pick on RB Kendre Miller. Less likely is Kamara recovering the TD prowess and remarkable per-touch efficiency of his early years, in part because he's lost a step and in part because Williams and QB/TE Taysom Hill figure to get most of the goal-line carries. There's still potential for Kamara to be an every-week fantasy starter once he completes the three-game suspension, but a high-end-RB1 ceiling is no longer within his range of outcomes.
- Round 25, Pick 291 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 83 - 2022 Rank: 242
Sutton could remain a trade candidate if the Broncos see an opportunity to move him, only because his cap hit is very high for the next three years, but if they can't move Sutton then they might as well make good use of him in 2023. Disappointing as his last two seasons have been, the first was his initial return from an ACL tear the prior year, and both seasons were defined by memorably poor quarterback play. It's also worth noting that Sutton drew 12 defensive pass interference calls those two years -- a high figure. Fellow receiver Jerry Jeudy drew only three defensive pass interference calls over the same time span, for instance. If a handful of those DPI calls had been catches for the according yardage then that would have been enough for Sutton's numbers to look a little better. Hopefully, this season gives Sutton a chance to remind what he can do when he's healthy and has decent quarterback play to work with, because the production from Sutton's first two NFL seasons made him look like a future star.
- Round 26, Pick 303 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 2282 - 2022 Rank: 866
- Round 27, Pick 315 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 196 - 2022 Rank: 590
Few NFL players have as much upside intrigue as Toney, but it's also true that few NFL players are half as confusing. It's a given that Toney is a unique, maybe even one-of-a-kind threat when he has the ball, but his durability struggles and mercurial relationship with the Giants made it difficult to tell whether he has anything else to his game. To this point, Toney has never run a legitimate combination of routes, so while he certainly has the athleticism to be an all-around receiver it's not clear whether he'll ever develop the route-running acumen necessary to do so. Now 24, Toney has some but not much time to demonstrate skills growth before we have to stare down the possibility that he simply is what he already is. Even if Toney never improves a bit, though, he should still be a nightmarish after-the-catch threat as an underneath specialist for the Chiefs. The Chiefs want him to step up as their WR1, so if he makes the necessary improvements then the fantasy rewards could be enormous. Very little is truly guaranteed, though.
- Round 28, Pick 327 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 21 - 2022 Rank: 60
The 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Smith followed up his strong rookie campaign with an even better Year 2. Rather than being overshadowed by A.J. Brown after he was acquired from the Titans, the different skill sets of the two wideouts proved to complement each other perfectly, and their presence downfield allowed Jalen Hurts to break out and join the ranks of elite NFL quarterbacks. The two receivers saw similar volumes, and while Brown's size and athleticism made him a better deep threat, Smith's sharp route-running allowed him to pick apart defenses in the intermediate parts of the field. The Eagles had little turnover on the offensive side of the ball after their NFC Championship, so Smith's role figures to remain stable in 2023. He should continue to feature prominently in debates about who the best No. 2 receiver in the league is, alongside Tee Higgins and Jaylen Waddle.
- Round 29, Pick 339 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 37 - 2022 Rank: 96
In the current iteration of the Seahawks offense, Metcalf isn't quite the explosive downfield threat that he was earlier in his career. Last year, he saw a career low 11.6 yards per reception while posting just a 10th-percentile yardage after the catch rate. After being targeted 129 times in each of the two prior seasons, Metcalf was targeted 141 times last year leading to a career high 90 catches. To this point, 2020 is looking like his career year, when he had 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. As long as the team continues to roll with Geno Smith as quarterback, it's unlikely that this becomes a team that consistently attacks downfield, which will limit Metcalf's upside. but his target volume should continue to help him be a strong weekly fantasy option. Based on volume and talent, he should remain in the top-15 conversation at wide receiver.
- Round 30, Pick 351 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 41 - 2022 Rank: 145
Coming off a late-season ACL injury in 2021, Godwin had a productive season. With Tom Brady getting the ball out quicker than ever, it benefitted Godwin, who played out of the slot 67 percent of the time. He set career highs with 104 catches and 142 targets. Meanwhile, his 9.8 yards per reception was well below his career average of over 13 yards. But he was still excellent with the ball in his hands. He posted a 72nd-percentile yards after the catch rate that allowed him to produce despite a 7.2 average yards per target. However, Godwin is an elite player, who is great at getting open and creating yardage. Baker Mayfield may not be a very good QB, but since Godwin can get open quickly and if he's always where he's expected to be when plays are called. Before Mayfield's injury-plagued 2021 season, Jarvis Landry averaged 79/997/4 (152) in three seasons with him, so Godwin, who is significantly better than Landry was, could easily explode in this offense. He may not have top-8 upside as he did in 2019, but he could finish in the top 18 at his position.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
