In the highly competitive EndZone Dynasty league, the New Belgrade Straydogs had their tails between their legs after receiving a dismal D- draft grade. With a projected finish of 9th and a projected record of 5-9-0, it seems like these underdogs will be spending more time chasing their own tails than chasing victory. Despite having the 2nd pick in the draft order, the Straydogs failed to make a strong impression with their selections, leaving their opponents howling with laughter.
The Straydogs' draft strategy seemed to be more of a stray thought than a well-executed plan. Their best pick came at the 2nd round when they snagged Jahmyr Gibbs, who had an ADP of 36. However, their worst pick came much later in the 14th round, when they reached for Sam LaPorta with an ADP of 131. It's safe to say that this team may need a few obedience classes when it comes to drafting. Adding insult to injury, the Straydogs ended up with a whopping 4 players on bye week 7, leaving them barking up the wrong tree. With 5 safeties drafted, well above the league average of 2.7, it seems like the Straydogs are more interested in protecting their endzone than scoring in their opponents'. Looks like they'll need a lot of luck and a few extra bones to turn this draft around.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 2 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 31 - 2022 Rank: -
The Lions clearly think Gibbs is a franchise RB after using the 12th pick in the draft on him. He doesn't have an ideal lead RB size, but he's not a small back either. However, he doesn't profile as a strong interior runner. His game is vision and speed, and he has elite skills in those areas. Getting him in space as a runner and receiver would make the ideal situation for him. Since the team has David Montgomery, Gibbs could be held below 250 touches and lose red-zone opportunities, though that isn't a guarantee. His range of outcomes is vast. Those who believe he'll be a game-breaker from Day One should aggressively target him in drafts. The concerns are that his touches will be limited and will lessen his potential upside. Though drafting him outside the top-12 running backs would still make him very valuable if he sees fewer touches than the top-backs in the league.
- Round 2, Pick 14 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 60 - 2022 Rank: -
Laporta has solid athleticism, but he seems like a typical rookie tight end who needs time to develop. However, being drafted in the second round on a team that has no credible receiving threat at his position puts Laporta in the equation as an immediate fantasy option. He's more of a seam-stretcher than a possession receiver, so even if he gets targets, he may be hit-or-miss from week-to-week. It seems likely he'll finish outside the top-20 at his position, though there is some upside if he develops quickly. Four tight ends combined to catch 12 touchdowns in Detroit's offense in 2022, proving this is a favorable scheme for the position in the red zone. Furthermore, projected No. 2 receiver Jameson Williams will serve a suspension for the season's first six games, potentially opening up more targets in the passing game.
- Round 3, Pick 26 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 122 - 2022 Rank: 180
Smith-Schuster technically operated as the Chiefs' top wide receiver during last season's Super Bowl run, putting up a 78-833-3 line in the regular season. In reality, though, he served as a true No. 2 receiving option behind tight end Travis Kelce. The Patriots saw fit to seemingly swap out Jakobi Meyers for Smith-Schuster, presumably setting up to handle a similar big-slot role, which does bode well, but production may be harder to come from while catching passes from Mac Jones instead of Patrick Mahomes. The acquisition of Mike Gesicki to pair with Hunter Henry could also forebode the Patriots running more two-TE sets, in which case an outside WR would likely share the field rather than a slot man. Still, Smith-Schuster's three-year, $25.5 million deal with $16 million guaranteed at signing is a nice guarantee of his involvement as a key pillar on offense. His base salaries for 2023 and 2024 are guaranteed, so he figures to remain in New England for at minimum a two-year stint.
- Round 4, Pick 38 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 184 - 2022 Rank: 52
Elliott posted a career-low 3.8 yards per carry last season as his rushing attempts fell for the fourth consecutive year. As a receiver, his yards per reception decreased in each of the last few years as well, bottoming out at 5.4 last year. No surprise, the Cowboys released him in March. However, Elliott scored 12 touchdowns 15 games and likely will be used in a similar goal-line role after signing with the Patriots in August. Rhamondre Stevenson is the lead back, but Elliott could at least cut into a share of his carries, especially in short yardage. Elliott is 28 and definitely on the downside of his career, but injuries were part of his trouble the last two seasons and if he stays healthy he could again have some fantasy value as a goal-line runner.
- Round 5, Pick 50 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 212 - 2022 Rank: 126
Though McPherson's second pro season did not quite match up to his 2021 debut, he confirmed he's one of the better kickers in the league. He converted 9 out of 14 tries from 40-49 yards and all five from beyond 50 yards, also tying for sixth in PAT attempts (44) and seventh in PAT conversions (40). If anyone is to challenge Baltimore's Justin Tucker for the fantasy kicking throne, the 2021 fifth-round pick from his own division just might be the player to do so. While McPherson hasn't been as reliable as Tucker from close range, McPherson has an outstanding record from 50-plus yards (14 for 16) and is attached to a Cincinnati offense that's been considerably better than Baltimore's the past couple years.
- Round 6, Pick 62 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 586 - 2022 Rank: 257
- Round 7, Pick 74 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 1169 - 2022 Rank: 219
Williams is outshined by his brother Quinnen, but that doesn't mean he hasn't been productive in his own right. He's coming off consecutive 100-tackle seasons with the Jets, and he's become a staple at outside linebacker for the team. The Jets showed their dedication to Williams by re-signing him to a three-year, $18 million contract this offseason. That should safely lock in his starting role for at least the 2023 campaign. There are some drawbacks to his game, as he can sometimes get lost in coverage and also takes bad angles while supporting the run defense at times. On the other hand, he's also one of the biggest hitters in the NFL and will continue to rack up plenty of tackles.
- Round 8, Pick 86 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 1314 - 2022 Rank: 209
Washington took Davis 19th overall in the 2021 Draft, capital driven primarily by his size and athleticism after he ran a 4.47 40-yard dash while posting a 132-inch broad jump and 42-inch vertical at the Kentucky Pro Day. However, he entered the NFL with relatively little experience, which limited him to a 59 percent snap share as a rookie. That mark jumped to 85 percent last season, and he should take another step forward in 2023 after the departure of Cole Holcomb. We got a preview of what could be in store for Davis, as he averaged 7.9 tackles after Holcomb's season-ending injury in Week 7. Davis is working his way back from a relatively minor knee procedure, which will be something to monitor during training camp. Assuming he begins the season at full strength as expected, he can be projected to post new career-high marks in both tackles and sacks.
- Round 9, Pick 98 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 571 - 2022 Rank: 143
- Round 10, Pick 110 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 1164 - 2022 Rank: 179
Bentley has proven to be a trustworthy member of Bill Belichick's defense across the last three seasons, playing at least 600 snaps and over 90 tackles each year during that span. He's coming off of his best campaign, during which he racked up a team-high 125 tackles along with three sacks, an interception, and a fumble recovery in 17 games. The team rewarded him with an extension, which should keep him in New England until after the 2024 campaign. It also means that the 2018 fifth-rounder is set to reprise his starting inside linebacker role for the Patriots. Bentley isn't an IDP superstar, as he's never managed to contribute much in the way of pass rush or coverage stats. On the other hand, he has a clear role in the middle of the defense and should pile up tackles once again.
- Round 11, Pick 122 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 1885 - 2022 Rank: 205
- Round 12, Pick 134 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 551 - 2022 Rank: 347
- Round 13, Pick 146 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 792 - 2022 Rank: 133
Kirksey is entering the final season of a two-year contract with the Texans and his 10th overall campaign in the NFL. He is coming off of his first fully healthy year for the first time since 2017, also topping 100 tackles for the first time in that span. Despite being limited in his snap count due to injury throughout his career, Kirksey has done a lot of damage in coverage. Across his last three seasons and 31 games, he has combined to rack up five interceptions and 17 pass breakups. Though Houston made some additions to its porous defense in 2022, Kirksey projects to maintain a significant role as he heads into his age-30 campaign. He'll look to pair with offseason addition Denzel Perryman as a fearsome duo among the team's linebacker corps.
- Round 14, Pick 158 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 500 - 2022 Rank: 187
- Round 15, Pick 170 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 209 - 2022 Rank: 194
Peoples-Jones, a 2020 sixth-round pick, progressed from being a part-time deep threat his first two seasons to a regular starter in 2022. In 17 games played last season, he had a receiving line of 61 catches, 839 yards and three touchdowns on 96 targets. Compared to the previous year, Peoples-Jones had 38 more targets but recorded a drop in his average depth of target (aDOT) from 15.4 to 11.7. Furthermore, his yards per catch (YPC) and yards per target (YPT) decreased from 17.6 to 13.8 and 10.3 to 8.7, respectively. However, the Browns swung a trade this offseason for fellow wide receiver Elijah Moore, a 2021 second-round pick who is much smaller than Peoples-Jones at 5-10, 178, but also far more agile and faster (4.35 40). Although it's unclear whether Peoples-Jones and Moore will compete for a starting job or if Moore will be limited to being the No. 3 receiver in the slot, there is tough target competition behind Amari Cooper this year either way. The Browns also added WR Cedric Tillman in the third round to assist QB Deshaun Watson, and they already have a legitimate receiving threat at tight end in David Njoku.
- Round 16, Pick 182 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 167 - 2022 Rank: 92
McKinnon's ability to improvise with Patrick Mahomes while phasing out of blitz pickup or play-action makes him difficult for defenses to keep track of, especially the longer a play goes on. The Chiefs offensive line is excellent and Mahomes might be the most dangerous improviser at quarterback the league has ever seen, so Mahomes extends plays regularly enough for McKinnon to make a fantasy impact even as a backup. It's not clear how locked in McKinnon might be relative to his 2022 workload - Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are both capable of poaching passing-down snaps - but in 2022 McKinnon just about had the Kansas City running back receiving production to himself. As much as it seems unlikely that McKinnon would play more than the 497 snaps he did in 2022, it's also not obvious why the Chiefs would scale it back too much. With that said, if McKinnon is to be a useful fantasy asset in 2023 then he'll likely need to make it happen as a receiver, so he can't afford to lose any passing-down snaps.
- Round 17, Pick 194 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 108 - 2022 Rank: 164
Jones is coming off a breakout season in which he set career highs in targets (121), catches (82) and receiving yards (823). He also had five touchdowns, which was the 28-year-old's second most behind his seven TDs with Buffalo in 2018. After being used deeper downfield by the Bills and Raiders, Jones' increased success coincided with a change in role after joining Jacksonville. His average depth of target dropped from 14.0 yards with the Raiders in 2021 to 8.6 with the Jaguars in 2022, as Trevor Lawrence peppered Jones with targets underneath and set the wide receiver up to do damage after the catch. Jones should play a similar role in 2023, though matching last season's volume will be difficult, as Jacksonville added WR Calvin Ridley while retaining WR Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram, who soaked up 133 and 98 targets in 2022. If Jones can cut down on his drops -- he led the league with 13 last season - and improve on last year's lackluster 6.8 yards per target, he could replicate last year's production despite the expected dip in volume.
- Round 18, Pick 206 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 253 - 2022 Rank: 135
Murray's one-year deal with the Bills likely only positions him as a depth option, but his performance with the Broncos last year shouldn't be overlooked. Despite Denver's offense being held back by bottom-of-the-league QB play courtesy of Russell Wilson, Murray sustained an impressive 4.4 YPC for a total of 160-703-5 on the ground in 12 appearances. James Cook and Damien Harris do look like the clear favorites atop this depth chart, but Murray could prove more than capable if he ends up being called upon. The 33-year-old veteran may not have too much left in the tank, however.
- Round 19, Pick 218 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 73 - 2022 Rank: 136
Pacheco's rookie season was a smashing success, and one the former Rutgers standout could potentially build on in his second NFL season. Pacheco's hard-charging, high-speed approach as a runner between the tackles makes him difficult for defenses to handle as they more so concern themselves with Patrick Mahomes, so there's not much reason to fear regression from Pacheco's average of 4.9 yards per carry from 2022. Pacheco has the speed to score from long range, yet in 2022 he had only three carries over 20 yards and none over 40 - both of those numbers would be good bets to rise in 2023. There's also room for growth in Pacheco's pass-catching production. The Chiefs increased his route-running workload as the season progressed, and Pacheco was occasionally effective as a receiver in his Rutgers days. Jerick McKinnon is still around to poach passing-down snaps if Pacheco slips up, and former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire can't be written off entirely either, but Pacheco has the clear lead in this backfield and plenty of momentum behind him.
- Round 20, Pick 230 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 131 - 2022 Rank: 344
Harris stays in the division after departing New England, inking a one-year deal with the Bills which sets him up as a key member of Buffalo's backfield. A thigh injury limited Harris to 11 games last season, but he remained efficient with 4.4 YPC. Durability is something of a concern, though, as Harris has combated lingering hamstring issues in back-to-back seasons. His lack of prowess as a pass catcher leaves clear room for James Cook to work in, almost certainly setting up the Bills for a committee backfield wherein quarterback Josh Allen is arguably still the top option. Harris is Buffalo's best RB option in goal-line and short-yardage scenarios, but Allen is a threat to siphon a substantial amount of those opportunities as well. The plus side for Harris' outlook is that the Bills project to find themselves in clock-killing situations more often than almost any team in the league, and Harris should be the clear go-to guy in those instances.
- Round 21, Pick 242 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2236 - 2022 Rank: 1444
Patrick missed all of 2022 after suffering an ACL tear during training camp. The bad luck then continued this summer when he sustained a torn Achilles just a couple months after completing his rehab from the knee injury. Patrick will focus on rehabbing again for 2024, the final season of his contract with the Broncos.
- Round 22, Pick 254 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 138 - 2022 Rank: 275
After racking up 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns the last three seasons for the Cowboys, Schultz made the intrastate move to Houston on a one-year, $9 million contract. The 27-year-old tight end should emerge as one of the top targets for rookie QB C.J. Stroud. Schultz's 577 yards last season were more than any other pass catcher currently on Houston's roster posted in 2022, and Schultz was even better in 2021, when he set career highs in both yards (808) and touchdowns (eight). The lack of alternatives could lead to more targets for the 6-foot-5 tight end, who was targeted at least 89 times in each of his last three seasons with Dallas. However, that extra volume will likely be accompanied by increased scrutiny from opposing defenses without the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard around to occupy most of the defense's attention.
- Round 23, Pick 266 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 496 - 2022 Rank: 183
- Round 24, Pick 278 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 1202 - 2022 Rank: 147
David signed a modest one-year, $1.1 million contract this offseason to remain with the Buccaneers for a 12th NFL campaign. Despite his relatively advanced age and heavy workload during his career, David managed 123 tackles last year -- his most since 2019. He also played more than 1,000 snaps for the third time in the last four seasons, an impeccable record of consistency and availability. It's possible that we see his role shift in 2023, however. Tampa Bay spent a fifth-round pick on SirVocea Dennis, whose instincts make him an ideal player to apprentice with the veteran linebacker. If the team elects to begin the transition this year - a possibility considering the likelihood that the Buccaneers aren't competing for the playoffs -- David's volume would suffer even if his per-play efficiency remains consistent.
- Round 25, Pick 290 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 61 - 2022 Rank: 9
By now it's safe to call Herbert one of the league's elite quarterbacks, even after a somewhat disappointing 2022 season saw his touchdown rate and per-pass yardage decline from his 2021 and 2020 seasons. It didn't make much sense for Herbert to only throw for 25 touchdowns in 2022 after throwing for 69 touchdowns over the two prior seasons, so the Chargers decided to make a switch at offensive coordinator, deleting Joe Lombardi's dink-and-dunk offense for a Kellen Moore scheme that will hopefully do more to unleash Herbert's standout downfield passing ability. Between Moore's addition and the selection of first-round wide receiver Quentin Johnston, it's shaping up to be a bounce-back season for Herbert and the Chargers offense. Although it seems Herbert won't ever be inclined to run much, he still has the athleticism to do so. He could provide fantasy production similar to Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen if he can just get his per-pass yardage up over 8.0 yards per attempt. If Herbert's pass attempt volume stabilizes while his per-pass returns spike upward, something like a 5,000-yard, 40-touchdown season could be on the table. He was already close in 2021, when he threw for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns.
- Round 26, Pick 302 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 2545 - 2022 Rank: 1213
Johnson's on the roster bubble heading into camp after signing a one-year deal with the Jaguars in the offseason. There's likely one more spot to be had behind starter Travis Etienne and rookie third-round pick Tank Bigsby, with Johnson competing against JaMycal Hasty, Snoop Conner and Qadree Ollison for the No. 3 role. Johnson's the most accomplished of the remaining RBs by virtue of having posted 671 scrimmage yards and three TDs as a member of the Browns in 2021. His ability to play on special teams also helps his case, but Johnson got just seven offensive touches in 2022, and he's likely an injury or two away from a prominent offensive role, even if he makes the team.
- Round 27, Pick 314 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 55 - 2022 Rank: 75
Evans is coming off an odd season. The numbers ended up where they needed to be, as his 1,124 receiving yards were his most since 2019. In addition, his 77 receptions and 127 targets were his most since 2018. With touchdowns being unpredictable, the fact he scored six, which was his fewest since 2017, was understandable. From a week-to-week standpoint, his performance was frustrating. He had eight games with two-to-four receptions. And over his last eight games, he surpassed 60 yards twice. And he really had just two big games all year, though one of those was in Week 17, and it may have helped win leagues, as he surpassed 200 yards with three TDs. With Tom Brady gone and Baker Mayfield in, that may not be optimal. But having shown that he hasn't slowed down entering his age-30 season, if he gets reasonable QB play, he should have a chance for a top-20 season.
- Round 28, Pick 326 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 64
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 29, Pick 338 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 217 - 2022 Rank: 169
After playing only five games in his first season with Washington in 2021, Samuel stayed healthy last year and posted solid numbers as the No. 3 wideout behind Terry McLaurin and first-round rookie Jahan Dotson. Samuel saw significant usage on the ground to supplement his 64 catches, the second-highest total of his career, but his ceiling would appear to be firmly capped given his role in a middle-of-the-pack offense. There are reasons to think the unit as a whole could take a big step forward in 2023, however. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell takes the reins under new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who brings a Super Bowl-winning scheme with him from Kansas City. Barring an injury to McLaurin or Dotson though, it's hard to see a path by which Samuel would get featured prominently.
- Round 30, Pick 350 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 200 - 2022 Rank: 240
Osborn came alive late last season, showing upside for a bigger role this season. After averaging 23 receiving yards per game in his first 13 games with three touchdowns, Osborn had games of 157 and 117 yards in the last four weeks, averaging 87.5 yards per game and scoring twice. But increased targets is far from guaranteed after the Vikings used a first-round pick on WR Jordan Addison this spring, and Osborn likely will remain in the No. 3 role, even though the team moved on from Adam Thielen. Plus, tight end T.J. Hockenson could get more work after joining the team midseason last year. At 5-foot-11, 203, with 4.48 speed, Osborn could produce if given the chance. But he'll likely need an injury to Justin Jefferson or Addison for that to happen.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
