Intentional Grounding took the field in the NFC CHAMPIONS league with high hopes, but their draft performance left much to be desired. With a draft grade of C-, it's safe to say they didn't knock it out of the park. Projected to finish 7th with a record of 5-9-0, they'll need some serious magic to make it to the playoffs. Their projected points of 2229.65 might not be enough to carry them to victory, especially considering they have the 3rd toughest schedule out of the 10 teams. To make matters worse, they'll have to navigate through a bye week 7 with 3 players on the sidelines.
While there were a few bright spots in their draft, such as nabbing Jerry Jeudy at pick 98 (ADP 74), they also made some questionable choices. Their worst pick came at pick 38, where they selected J.K. Dobbins despite an ADP of 47. Perhaps the most perplexing move was drafting 3 players from the same team: J.K. Dobbins, Justin Tucker, and Zay Flowers. It's like they're trying to create their own mini team within the team. Maybe they're onto something revolutionary, or maybe they just accidentally hit the same button three times. Only time will tell if Intentional Grounding can live up to their name and intentionally ground their opponents, or if they'll end up being the ones getting sacked.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 3 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 37
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 2, Pick 18 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 63 - 2022 Rank: 56
Wilson came on as a rookie sensation in 2022, topping 1,100 receiving yards despite being held back by bottom-of-the-barrel QB play. His winning Offensive Rookie of the Year was a tremendous accomplishment. It was a common sight for Jets fans to watch Wilson breaking wide open, only for the quarterback to either overlook him or miss a wide open throw. Aaron Rodgers, even if coming off a down year, is a huge upgrade over the combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White and an aged Joe Flacco, putting Wilson in prime position to make the leap forward in Year 2. Though Wilson finished 15th in receiving yards as a rookie, he nabbed only four touchdowns, a clear product of New York's limited offensive execution. Wilson's four scores were the worst mark against any receiver in the league with more than 1,100 yards last season, and Wilson has a demonstrable ability to threaten in the red zone. In his final season at Ohio State, Wilson was on the receiving end of 12 touchdowns.
- Round 3, Pick 23 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 19 - 2022 Rank: 57
After missing his entire rookie season due to a Lisfranc injury, Etienne looked healthy and explosive in his return to action in 2022. Trevor Lawrence's Clemson teammate and fellow 2021 first-round pick averaged 5.1 yards per carry and posted 1,441 scrimmage yards while finding the end zone five times last season. Etienne still has room for improvement when it comes to focus and consistency. He had five fumbles and three drops last year while struggling to churn out reliable small gains to keep the Jaguars ahead of the chains in between his big runs. Etienne heads into 2023 as the clear lead option in Jacksonville's backfield, but if Etienne doesn't fix his weaknesses, that could open the door for 2023 third-round pick Tank Bigsby to cut into his workload. Bigsby might get the nod in goal-line situations, when fumbles are most costly. If Jacksonville can take another step forward after winning the weak AFC South with a 9-8 record, the Jags could find themselves playing with a lead more in 2023, providing Etienne with more rushing opportunities.
- Round 4, Pick 38 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 2415 - 2022 Rank: 259
A 2020 second-round pick, Dobbins has played only eight games since his rookie season, but has a big opportunity ahead in the final year of his contract. He was also a breakout candidate the past two years, but a major, multi-ligament knee injury ended his 2021 campaign before it started and had a major impact on his 2022. Early last year, Dobbins missed the first two weeks and then averaged only 8.8 carries for 30.8 yards in his first four games. After that, he missed six games to have an arthroscopic procedure on his surgically repaired knee, later returning in December revitalized to average 14.3 carries for 99.3 yards (7.0 YPC) over a four-game stretch. Dobbins now appears locked in for the starting job under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who doesn't figure to call as many runs as former OC Greg Roman, but should find a way to get his lead back more involved in the passing game (Dobbins has only 25 career receptions). The Ravens lack depth behind Dobbins, with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill the returning veterans and no incoming draft picks at the position.
- Round 5, Pick 43 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 14 - 2022 Rank: 63
Walker proved to be a very explosive running back in his rookie season. He finished the season with at least 100 yards rushing in each of his last three games and in five of his last 10 contests. On the season, he ended up with 1,215 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns on 255 touches. Although Walker had an outstanding 96th-percentile broken tackle rate, he posted just 54th-percentile yards after contact. He was very good as a receiver by posting a 67th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But Walker has a bit of a boom-or-bust nature to his game. He often will have a number of short runs before breaking off a long strike, but there are plenty of running backs in the past that have lived that way and been successful. However, Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second-round of this year's draft, which is not good news for Walker. It seems that Walker will enter the season as the lead runner, with Charbonnet having at least a significant change-of-pace role. Charbonnet required too much draft capital to sit on the bench. The situation will be enough of a timeshare to view Walker as a fantasy RB2 option, instead of the RB1 scenario he was shaping up to be before the Draft.
- Round 6, Pick 58 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 71 - 2022 Rank: 131
Goedert hasn't played a full schedule since he was a rookie in 2018, and 2022 was no exception. The tight end missed five games last season with a shoulder injury. And yet Goedert still turned in another productive season. Since supplanting Zach Ertz as the Eagles' top tight end, he's averaged more than 10 yards a target and 50 receiving yards a game over the last two years. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the top weapons for quarterback Jalen Hurts, but Goedert is a capable No. 3 option in an explosive offense that will have a lot of continuity from last season. While his floor is his big selling point from a fantasy perspective, there's room for growth in his red-zone production if defenses find a way to force Philadelphia to shy away from using Hurts on goal-line sneaks. Even without a big spike in his touchdown output, Goedert has plenty of appeal once the elite tight ends are off the board.
- Round 7, Pick 63 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 72 - 2022 Rank: 10
Lawrence made a second-year leap under new coach Doug Pederson, posting a 25:8 TD:INT after mustering a 12:17 mark during his forgettable rookie season. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft enters his third season as an established top-10 fantasy QB, but Lawrence's ceiling is higher than that, as he still has a few obvious areas for further improvement. Lawrence's 7.0 YPA in 2022 ranked a pedestrian 18th, and the underrated runner mustered only 291 yards on the ground after rushing for 334 as a rookie, though Lawrence increased his rushing TD total from two to five. He'll also be working with an improved supporting cast in 2023, as the Jaguars added WR Calvin Ridley - who had 1,374 receiving yards for the Falcons in 2020 but sat out 2022 entirely due to a gambling suspension - while retaining their top four skill position players from last season (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne). Playing in the underwhelming AFC South could be both a blessing and a curse for Lawrence. While the Jaguars are favored to repeat as division champs, they will likely spend the majority of their six games against the Titans, Colts and Texans playing from a lead, thus potentially limiting Lawrence's volume after he attempted 670 passes last year - sixth-most in the NFL.
DEF - Round 8, Pick 78 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 151 - 2022 Rank: 100
Between Dan Quinn's revitalization as a coordinator and some outstanding drafting in recent years, the Cowboys' defense has become one of the league's elite fantasy options. The team led the NFL in takeaways while finishing tied for third in sacks and tied for fifth in points per game allowed in 2022, as Micah Parsons led an aggressive, attacking unit that didn't give quarterbacks much chance to get comfortable. The front office didn't rest on those laurels though, trading for Stephon Gilmore to provide a veteran presence opposite ballhawking cornerback Trevin Diggs and drafting Mazi Smith late in the first round to bolster the middle of the defensive line. Young players like edge rusher Sam Williams and linebacker Damone Clark could also take big steps forward this season, but Parsons remains the star attraction. As long as he's disrupting plays all over the field, this should be one of the league's best defenses,
- Round 9, Pick 83 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 169 - 2022 Rank: 107
Last year, Tucker's PAT volume decreased due to the Ravens' difficulty finishing off drives and putting the ball in the end zone. Naturally, he compensated by leading the league in field-goal attempts (43), field-goals made (37), and attempts from 50-plus yards (14). Even though he's averaged 7.2 tries from 50-plus yards in his 11 NFL seasons, Tucker remains the all-time leader in career FG percentage (90.5). He'll once again enter a season universally regarded as one of the top two or three fantasy options at his position, offering an unmatched combination of accuracy and leg strength.
- Round 10, Pick 98 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 81 - 2022 Rank: 64
If not for Russell Wilson's struggles and an ankle injury that cost Jeudy two games there would probably be more talk about how impressive Jeudy was in 2022. The former Alabama star is still just 24, yet last year he produced far above the Denver passing game base line while leading the team in receiving volume. The Broncos passing game completed 63.8 percent of its targets at 7.4 yards per target, but Jeudy finished with 67 receptions for 972 yards on 100 targets (67.0 percent catch rate, 9.7 yards per target). With numbers like that, it's no surprise the Broncos exercised the fifth-year option on Jeudy's rookie contract. If Jeudy can produce like that during a disaster season for Wilson then it makes sense to project a breakout season for Jeudy in 2023, especially if new coach Sean Payton can coax improvement out of Wilson. Even if Wilson doesn't improve, though, Jeudy has already shown an ability to produce despite a poor surrounding offense.
- Round 11, Pick 103 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 80 - 2022 Rank: 750
After the Vikings cut ties with Adam Thielen, they were in need of a clear No. 2 receiver. They didn't waste time in addressing that need, using the 23rd pick in this year's draft to select Addison. In college, he showed the ability to run effective routes at all levels of the field. He also showed excellent separation skills. But his game wasn't without questions. The 175-pound receiver seemed to lack some physicality, which could be an issue in the NFL. Also, quite a bit of his college production came on screen passes, and that may be difficult to duplicate at the next level. Finally, he disappointed at the NFL Combine. He ran a 55th-percentile 40-yard-dash time, and his explosiveness testing came in at the 50th percentile. Regardless, he is expected to start across from Justin Jefferson this season. He'll also have a quarterback in Kirk Cousins, who has shown the ability to lead a productive passing attack. Despite some knocks on his profile as he enters the pros, volume and circumstance could propel Addison to a productive rookie campaign.
- Round 12, Pick 118 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 141 - 2022 Rank: 236
Okonkwo was brought along slowly for the first half of his rookie season, but the 2022 fourth-round pick out of Maryland flourished down the stretch. He caught at least three passes in six of Tennessee's final seven games, racking up 24 catches for 278 yards and two touchdowns over that span. Veteran WR Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, who worked ahead of Okonkwo at TE for most of last season, both left in free agency. Okonkwo and fellow 2022 draft pick Treylon Burks are thus set to take on expanded roles in the Tennessee passing game alongside offseason signing DeAndre Hopkins. Okonkwo's undersized at 6-foot-2 and 244 pounds, but if he blocks well enough to earn an every-down role in the Titans' run-first offense, the tight end should continue to cause mismatches for defenses with his 4.52 speed, which was the best among all tight ends in his draft class. Tennessee didn't bring in a veteran replacement for Hooper, settling for 2023 fifth-round pick Josh Whyle, so Okonkwo should get every opportunity to expand his role in 2023 after playing more than half of the team's offensive snaps only twice in 2022.
- Round 13, Pick 123 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 147 - 2022 Rank: 766
The Chiefs surprised most when they selected Rice in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft (55th overall), as the former SMU star was more so expected to be a Day 3 selection. The Chiefs might have been onto something, though, because Rice was a very productive player at SMU and his athletic testing at the combine was better than expected (4.51-second 40, 41-inch vertical at 6-foot-1, 204). Not just that, but Patrick Mahomes requested that the Chiefs select Rice at some point in the draft. In addition to his springy athleticism, Rice plays with a physicality that makes him a threat both at the catch point and as a ballcarrier after the catch. Fantasy drafters might be leery of Rice's rookie season after Skyy Moore disappointed as a second-round pick in 2022, but it's worth noting that Rice has a more versatile skill set than Moore. Whereas Moore can only realistically earn snaps in the slot, Rice can credibly compete for reps at any wide receiver position in the Chiefs offense.
- Round 14, Pick 138 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 48 - 2022 Rank: 747
Flowers was chosen as the third pick among four consecutive WRs taken in the first round during this April's draft. He was selected one pick ahead of Jordan Addison and went right after Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quentin Johnston. During his four years in college, Flowers played in subpar-to-mediocre offenses at BC, where he finished strong as a senior with 78 catches, 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns. In total, he accumulated 3,056 yards and 29 touchdowns throughout his college career. The 5-foot-9 wideout showcased his athleticism at the combine with a 4.42 40, 127-inch broad jump and a 35.5-inch vertical. The downside is that he's small, even for a speed merchant, and is the oldest of the four WRs drafted in Round 1 this April (23 in September). Furthermore, Flowers faces stiff competition for targets in Baltimore, where Rashod Bateman is returning from a foot injury, Odell Beckham signed an $15 million contract and TE Mark Andrews remaining a threat to lead the team in any and all receiving stats. Even with the addition of new OC Todd Monken, the Ravens offense is unlikely to rank among the league leaders in pass attempts, in part because QB Lamar Jackson is such a scrambling threat. There's also some risk of Flowers primarily playing the slot and thus being left off the field in two-wide formations in favor of Beckham, Bateman and possibly even Nelson Agholor.
- Round 15, Pick 143 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 138 - 2022 Rank: 138
After racking up 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns the last three seasons for the Cowboys, Schultz made the intrastate move to Houston on a one-year, $9 million contract. The 27-year-old tight end should emerge as one of the top targets for rookie QB C.J. Stroud. Schultz's 577 yards last season were more than any other pass catcher currently on Houston's roster posted in 2022, and Schultz was even better in 2021, when he set career highs in both yards (808) and touchdowns (eight). The lack of alternatives could lead to more targets for the 6-foot-5 tight end, who was targeted at least 89 times in each of his last three seasons with Dallas. However, that extra volume will likely be accompanied by increased scrutiny from opposing defenses without the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard around to occupy most of the defense's attention.
- Round 16, Pick 158 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 180 - 2022 Rank: 775
The Saints invested a third-round pick in Miller this April as they started to prepare for the transition from Alvin Kamara, which may be a couple of years away. Although Miller has the traits to be an early down RB, he's far from a sure thing. He looked slow on inside runs in college and often tried to break runs outside instead of using his 215-pound frame to attack defenders. The Saints also brought in veteran back Jamaal Williams, a reliable runner between the tackles who won't make anyone miss and can't outrun defensive backs. That makes Miller the more explosive option while Kamara serves a three-game suspension to start the season, but it isn't clear how much the Saints value the rookie's speed and acceleration relative to Williams' reliability as a pass blocker and inside runner.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
