In a stunning display of draft prowess, Kittles & Bits emerged as the undeniable champions of the NFC CHAMPIONS league. With a flawless draft grade of A+ and a projected finish at the top of the standings, this team is poised to dominate the competition. Despite the 9th toughest schedule, Kittles & Bits have assembled a roster that is set to leave their opponents in the dust.
Their draft strategy was nothing short of genius, as they secured the best pick of the draft with Breece Hall at 40, surpassing his ADP of 34. However, not every pick was a home run, as they reached for Brandin Cooks at 100, who had an ADP of 113. Nevertheless, Kittles & Bits managed to draft four players from the same team, including Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa, Miami, and Jason Sanders. With this level of synergy, their opponents will be left scratching their heads in bewilderment.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 1 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 2 - 2022 Rank: 5
After posting 1,400 yards as a rookie in 2021, Jefferson's production has increased by roughly a shocking 200 yards each season. He's also seen his targets go from 125 as a rookie to 184 last year. These are staggering numbers. He played 54% of the snaps in the slot, so the coaching staff definitely knows how to get him open and into space in many different ways. Jefferson had an incredible 10 games with at least a 100 yards with four of those games going for at least 150 yards. Jefferson scored between seven and 10 touchdowns in each of his three seasons. Not only is he as talented as any other receiver in the league, but his coaching staff understands the value of getting the ball in his hands frequently. The only minor concern is that he had a few games in which he mostly disappeared. He had six games with less than 50 yards receiving. In those games, the defense worked to take him out of the contest, and the coaching staff wasn't imaginative enough to overcome it. Regardless, the AP Offensive Player of the Year is still the safest option as the top player on draft boards.
- Round 2, Pick 20 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 15 - 2022 Rank: 30
Waddle had 23 more targets in 2022 versus his rookie season. But playing alongside Tyreek Hill is what really improved his performance. While Waddle set an NFL record with 104 catches as a rookie, he did so with a frustratingly low 9.8 yards per catch in a rather inept offense. It was coach Mike McDaniel's scheme that not only unlocked quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but also developed Waddle's skillset. Waddle made the jump from 9.8 to a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch, obviously benefitting from the presence of Hill. He also thrived despite playing through a plethora of lingering injuries. It's further impressive that Waddle's success came despite playing through turmoil at the quarterback position, as he ended the year catching passes from rookie third-stringer Skylar Thompson. It's easy to see a scenario wherein Miami's offense builds upon itself in 2023. The team will have another offseason to build familiarity with McDaniel's complex scheme, and if things break right, Tagovailoa should be able to avoid injuries with better success. The stage is set, in other words, for Waddle and Hill to take the league by storm.
- Round 3, Pick 21 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 20 - 2022 Rank: 66
Olave's rookie situation was relatively solid when compared to many of the top rookies wideouts who were stuck with terrible quarterback play. Andy Dalton played capably and understood the importance of getting the ball to his star receiver. As a result, Olave never had fewer than 41 yards in a game. However, after a strong start to the season in which Olave had at least 80 yards in four of his first 10 games, he didn't surpass 65 yards in any of his last five contests. Even though he had 13 catches of more than 20 yards (and four of those catches gained at least 40 yards), he only had a 17th-percentile yards after the catch rate. That is something he'll need to improve on in 2023. New QB Derek Carr, who's expected to play behind a weak pass-protecting OL, could hinder Olave's downfield potential. Carr will likely need to pound Olave with targets in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Olave is already a top-20 receiver, but if he can work well with Carr, he could end up in the top 15. If Olave's QB showed more big-play potential, the sophomore wideout would be considered a top-10 WR.
- Round 4, Pick 40 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 25 - 2022 Rank: 169
Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 last season just as he was emerging as a dominant workhorse RB, making the injury all the more frustrating. The 2022 second-round pick started slowly, with less than 50 rushing yards in his first three appearances, but the Jets finally shifted gears Week 4 and handed Hall the majority of backfield work. Hall hopes to return by Week 1, and New York's offense looks primed to take a significant step forward in 2023 with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. But the Jets likely will take their time with Hall, especially after signing Dalvin Cook in August. Cook could start Week 1, and even when Hall returns could still steal touches as the No. 2. That said, if Hall returns to his pre-injury form and Rodgers indeed boosts the offense this season, Hall could even see an uptick in scoring opportunities.
- Round 5, Pick 41 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 43 - 2022 Rank: 28
Jackson's 2022 was cut short by a Week 13 knee injury, limiting him to just 12 games. If his 11 complete games were prorated to a full season, he would have recorded almost 3,500 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Despite his completion percentage (62.3) and yards per attempt (6.9) dropping compared to the previous few years, he still managed QB1-level fantasy production thanks to his exceptional running ability. Jackson's performance was hindered by arguably the worst wideout corps in the league, but the Ravens took steps to address this issue by signing Odell Beckham and then drafting Zay Flowers in the first round. A healthy season from Rashod Bateman, their 2021 first-round pick who missed six games with a Lisfranc injury, would also be significant. Tight end Mark Andrews is still the main target in the offense, with fellow TE Isaiah Likely providing an additional receiving threat. The most crucial change could be the switch in offensive scheme from Greg Roman's run-heavy playbook to a more pass-oriented one led by new OC Todd Monken. Jackson ended the uncertainty around his future by signing a five-year deal worth $135 million guaranteed in May. He is undoubtedly the best QB in the league when it comes to running, and a full season could see him reach 1,000 rushing yards even if he gets fewer designed carries under Monken.
- Round 6, Pick 60 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 59 - 2022 Rank: 69
Conner overcame a rough team situation for the second year in a row to post excellent production. In 13 games, He totaled 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite terrible run blocking from the Cardinals, he was able to produce due to a 73rd percentile broken tackle rate and 72nd percentile yards after contact. His 4.3 yards per carry equaled his best total since 2018 when he was running behind a strong offensive line in Pittsburgh. He continues to be an excellent receiver, recording 65th percentile yards after the catch rate. His 46 receptions represented the second most of his career. Of course, Conner will miss time. He's missed between two and six games over the last six seasons, but as the running back position goes, that's not terrible either. He continues to be disrespected in fantasy drafts. it's likely that people overrate his injury history. It's also possible that they remember the weak start to the season that he had last year. But going into his age-28 season, he still should have another year of solid production. and as long as you're prepared for him missing some time, drafting him to be an RB2 makes sense.
- Round 7, Pick 61 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 54 - 2022 Rank: 266
Injuries put a damper on Waller's numbers over the last two seasons, but in the two years prior to that he established himself as one of the NFL's most dangerous tight ends. Only Travis Kelce had more receiving yards at the position in 2019 and 2020. Injuries weren't the only things that seemed to limit Waller's production in 2022 though. He took a back seat to Davante Adams in the Raiders' offense, and Waller had trouble finding a fit in Josh McDaniels' scheme. An offseason trade to the Giants gives Waller a fresh start. While he's arguably the most talented pass-catcher quarterback Daniel Jones has ever had to work with, Brian Daboll's scheme has even less of a track record of TE production than McDaniels' offense. Waller will turn 31 in September, and while he could return to elite status this season as Jones' top option, he'll also carry a lot of risk even if he manages to stay healthy.
- Round 8, Pick 80 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 67 - 2022 Rank: 350
Williams is racing to return to the field after his 2022 season cruelly ended with an ACL/LCL tear in Week 4, an injury that presumably led the Broncos to pursue Samaje Perine in free agency. Perine's contract is a modest one (two years, $7.5 million), so it's likely safe to assume that Broncos consider Perine a stopgap option until Williams is back to full strength. Once he's healthy Williams will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of the arrival of coach Sean Payton, who should prove to be a night-and-day improvement over the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. Through 21 career games, Williams has run for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns while adding 59 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns on 75 targets (78.7 percent catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). While those numbers don't jump off the page, they're pretty good, especially considering how bad the Denver offense was those two years. Perine should shift into a proper backup role once Williams' knee is ready to go, but it's tough to guess his specific timeline after Williams was a limited participant in May OTAs.
- Round 9, Pick 81 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 51 - 2022 Rank: 129
White played as a backup to Leonard Fournette last year and handled 179 touches. With Fournette not coming back, White appears set for a lead role. The big question was whether his 3.7 yards per carry was due to a bad offensive scheme and poor run-blocking along the offensive line, or whether it was White's inability to break tackles. White was in the eighth percentile in broken-tackle rate and 36th-percentile yards after contact. His involvement as a receiver went up as the season went on. He had four or fewer targets in nine of the first 10 games. But he was targeted five-to-nine times in four of his last six games. As a result, he posted at least 9.9 PPR points in five of the last six games. From a potential volume standpoint, White could finish as a top-24 running back. But with Tom Brady gone, what will the offense look like? Will he be able to hold onto the lead role? Will Chase Edmonds cut into the receiving work? Will the Bucs sign a veteran interior runner? There will be a lot of questions about the Tampa Bay offense. But White getting volume seems like a decent bet, though it's unclear how well he'll perform if given the chance.
- Round 10, Pick 100 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 88 - 2022 Rank: 127
For a player with his physical gifts and consistent production, it's kind of remarkable that Cooks has never found a long-term home in the NFL. Since being selected in the first round in 2014, the speedster has played for four teams, and a March trade from the Texans has the Cowboys poised to be team No. 5. Through his travels, Cooks has topped 1,000 receiving yards six times in the last eight seasons, and the fact that he didn't reach that mark in Houston last year falls squarely on the shoulders of the erratic quarterback play. While he'll turn 30 in September, he still possesses the speed to force defenders back on their heels, and Dak Prescott should be the best QB he's worked with since he was Tom Brady's top option on the outside with the Patriots in 2017. CeeDee Lamb has that role in Dallas in 2023, but Cooks can still make an impact as the No. 2 wideout.
- Round 11, Pick 101 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 111 - 2022 Rank: 244
Warren's performance during his college years was unremarkable, and his athletic testing ahead of the 2022 NFL Draft was average. Nonetheless, he quickly made an impact with the Steelers after signing as an undrafted free agent last spring. He not only earned a roster spot but also surpassed two fourth-round picks from previous drafts on the Pittsburgh depth chart, becoming Najee Harris's backup and playing mostly in passing situations. At 5-8, 215, Warren's low center of gravity and reliable hands made him a nuisance for defenses on check-down throws. Although he's a valuable complementary player for Pittsburgh, he won't necessarily become a high-volume starter even if Harris misses time. Warren struggled to average 5.0 YPC in college, and though he achieved 4.9 YPC in 2022, it was partially due to the Steelers limiting his carries to low-stakes situations or snaps where the defense was expecting a pass. He does appear secure in his spot on the depth chart, as the Steelers still have little in the backfield beyond Harris and Warren.
- Round 12, Pick 120 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 146 - 2022 Rank: 311
Selected 27th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft after a prolific college career, Bateman has seen his pro career defined by injuries. After undergoing abdominal surgery in the summer of his rookie season, Bateman missed the first five games. He then sustained a Lisfranc injury early last October, causing him to miss the final 11 weeks of the 2022 season. Bateman showed promise early last year in catching eight of 16 targets for 226 yards and two touchdowns in the first three weeks, supported by two long-distance scores on which his 4.39 speed was evident. Bateman is only 23 and remains a promising prospect, but he confronts greater competition for targets after the Ravens signed WRs Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor and spent a first-round pick on WR Zay Flowers. There should at least be more receiving production to go around in Baltimore this year, as the change in offensive coordinator from Greg Roman to Todd Monken implies a more pass-oriented offense. This modification gives Bateman a chance at a third-year breakout even with more competition for QB Lamar Jackson's attention.
- Round 13, Pick 121 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 85 - 2022 Rank: 27
Tagovailoa finally looked like an elite playmaker on the NFL stage for stretches last season, proving that he's an obvious fit for coach Mike McDaniel's scheme, before concussions derailed his what appeared to be a decisive breakout. He nonetheless finished the season with a QB rating of 105.5, third best in the league, and a first-place 8.9 yards per pass attempt. A top-three wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle cements Tagovailoa's situation as elite, especially after an offseason of minor additions to the offensive line. The only significant question still looming over the fourth-year QB is one of durability, as even before last season's concussion issues he'd never played more than 13 games in a single year. As long as Tagovailoa can stay upright, though, he should produce at one of the league's highest rates, and over the offseason he was cleared of additional risk for suffering future concussions. It seems unfair to demand another 'prove-it' season from Tua after his accomplishments in 2022, but even after the Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option, he still needs to demonstrate he can put it all together for a full campaign.
- Round 14, Pick 140 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 140 - 2022 Rank: 238
Burks struggled to find a rhythm as a rookie despite the lack of alternatives in Tennessee's passing game. The 2022 first-round pick out of Arkansas had breathing problems in camp and was ultimately limited to 11 appearances as a rookie due to turf toe and a concussion. Despite those limitations, Burks finished third on the team with 54 targets. Both players who ranked ahead of him -- WR Robert Woods (91) and TE Austin Hooper (60) -- are no longer on the Titans, but the team did sign veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins in July. The 6-foot-2, 225-pound Burks has shown no signs of breathing problems in camp this year, and whether it's veteran Ryan Tannehill or rookie second-round pick Will Levis throwing him the ball, Burks should at least be Option B in Tennessee's passing game.
DEF - Round 15, Pick 141 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 216 - 2022 Rank: 227
Coach Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme dragged Miami to a playoff appearance last season, but the need for improvements on defense were obvious. Enter DC extraordinaire Vic Fangio, who promises not only to unlock Bradley Chubb (traded to the Dolphins last November), but provide a salve across the board. Chubb isn't the only name of note up front, with the presence of 2021 first-rounder Jaelen Phillip also being notable. Free-agency additions LB David Long and S DeShon Elliott arrive to reinforce returning starters LB Jerome Baker and S Jevon Holland, giving Miami a well-rounded core before even accounting for the team's standout CB duo. Trading for CB Jalen Ramsey to pair with perennial Pro Bowler Xavien Howard puts legitimate top-5 upside within range for this defensive unit.
- Round 16, Pick 160 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 201 - 2022 Rank: 151
Sanders managed a career-high 41 PATs in coach Mike McDaniel's high-flying offense last season, while also converting 81 percent of his 32 field-goal attempts. He went an impressive 12 of 13 from the 40-49 range, but only converted 2 of 6 from 50+ yards out. Though he may not be more than a slightly above league-average kicker, Sanders' leg strength allows his number to be dialed from a wide range of positions on the field. The Dolphins' offense projects to be among one of the league's better scoring units, and if the team's additions on defense also work out, Sanders could find himself in position to close out games more often.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
