The South Dallas Dubs entered the NFC CHAMPIONS league draft with the 4th pick, ready to make some noise. And boy, did they deliver! With a draft grade of A, they proved that they were no duds. Their projected finish of 2nd place has them dreaming of championship glory, but can they turn their dub-worthy draft into a championship ring? Only time will tell. The Dubs made some smart moves, snagging Patrick Mahomes at pick 24, a steal considering his ADP of 15. This pick alone could be the key to their success.
Of course, not every pick was a slam dunk. The Dubs made a questionable move by selecting Michael Pittman Jr. at pick 64, way above his ADP of 84. Perhaps they saw something in him that others didn't, but only time will tell if this pick will pay off. With a projected record of 9-5-0, the Dubs are poised to make a strong playoff push. However, they'll have to navigate a schedule that ranks as the 8th toughest out of 10 teams. It won't be an easy road, but if the South Dallas Dubs can live up to their name and bring the heat, they just might dub themselves champions.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 4 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 13 - 2022 Rank: 6
There are very few players in NFL history who compare to Ekeler, and aside from maybe Jahmyr Gibbs, none are in the league today. Among active players Ekeler is one of a kind, and the Chargers offense would be in a lot of trouble without him. Ekeler has reached volume/efficiency thresholds as a pass catcher otherwise only matched historically by Marshall Faulk, so when a pass catcher that productive adds 25 rushing touchdowns over two years it's unsurprising that Ekeler is now a consensus first-round fantasy pick. Ekeler is too small to hold up with a big rushing workload (that's why he's not Faulk), but his per-carry returns are excellent and his effectiveness as a runner should never be questioned. As much as Ekeler might be vulnerable to rushing touchdown regression, it won't occur on the basis of ability - if the touchdown carries are there for the taking, Ekeler is still a great bet to claim them. After a brief contract standoff earlier in the offseason, Ekeler raised the white flag and clarified that he will report for training camp.
- Round 2, Pick 17 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 7 - 2022 Rank: 12
It doesn't diminish his legacy with Aaron Rodgers any in hindsight, but it's quite a testament to Adams' abilities that he moved from Green Bay to the Raiders and had almost no drop off in his production. Although it took an extra game in 2022 than 2021, Adams eclipsed 100 catches and 1,500 yards for the second year in a row last year. Adams even improved on the touchdown production from Green Bay to Las Vegas, scoring 14 times on his 100 catches last year compared to 11 times on 123 catches his final year with the Packers. Adams expressed dissatisfaction with the Raiders organization and its direction following the 2022 season, but that realization probably hit him at some point before then, yet it didn't stop Adams from producing at an elite level. What could perhaps harm Adams' production is the Raiders quarterback situation. Free agent pickup Jimmy Garoppolo should be good enough for Adams to thrive, but Garoppolo's surgically-repaired foot is such a concern that the Raiders wrote an out clause in Garoppolo's contract that allows them to cut him with no cap penalty. Brian Hoyer would be the likely backup if Garoppolo were to miss time, and it's difficult to feel totally secure with Adams if that's the type of quarterbacking he might have to deal with.
- Round 3, Pick 24 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 23 - 2022 Rank: 1
Fresh off his second Super Bowl victory, second MVP title and his best season since he took the league by storm in 2018, it's easier than ever to declare Mahomes the best quarterback in the NFL. Whether that proves to be true in fantasy football is a different question, but it's tough to bet against Mahomes after throwing for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns last year. Mahomes' rushing ability isn't the first thing to come to mind when looking at his game, but his ability to add at least 300 yards and a couple touchdowns on the ground provides a meaningful boost to his fantasy output. The departures of free agent wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman shouldn't matter much, especially since the Chiefs reloaded with second-round pick Rashee Rice and quality free agent slot man Richie James. There's also the expectation that Kadarius Toney step up more after the Chiefs acquired him in-season from the Giants in 2022. So long as Travis Kelce is on the field it seems like Mahomes can score points with pretty much any combination of wide receivers.
- Round 4, Pick 37 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 82 - 2022 Rank: 92
Pierce was a pleasant surprise for the Texans as a rookie, even if the 2022 fourth-round pick's heroics didn't translate to many wins. After averaging 5.5 YPC as part of a platoon in college at Florida, Pierce rushed for 939 yards and four TDs in 13 games for the Texans before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. Pierce's 4.3 YPC in Houston was nothing to write home about, but that production came in the context of few threats in the passing game to keep defenses from keying on the run. The Texans are hoping to have changed that by drafting QB C.J. Stroud second overall in 2023. While they also bolstered their backfield depth by signing former Bills RB Devin Singletary, Pierce should continue to handle the majority of the workload as long as he's healthy. To that end, Pierce has been practicing at full speed at OTAs, suggesting he has long since put the ankle injury behind him. There's also room for further growth as a pass catcher for Pierce, as Houston still has an underwhelming receiving corps. Pierce caught 30 of 39 passes for 165 yards and one touchdown as a rookie.
- Round 5, Pick 44 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 29 - 2022 Rank: 60
Hockenson could become the No. 2 receiver for the Vikings in 2023. Adam Thielen is no longer on the team, though Minnesota used a first-round pick to select wide receiver Jordan Addison. It's possible that Addison is the second option right away. But Hockenson was a big part of the offense last year while gaining valuable chemistry with Kirk Cousins. Hockenson was heavily targeted since being acquired by the Vikings in the middle of last season. He had at least eight targets in seven of his last nine games before the meaningless week 18 contest. However, the young tight end posted fewer than 60 yards in seven of his last nine games. And his two big games for Minnesota both came against the New York Giants, one of which was in the playoffs. Overall, Hockenson should maintain an excellent scoring floor, which is rare at the tight end position. That said, he has a limited ceiling based on last year second-half performance and the addition of Addison. Hockenson's potential scoring floor will have some fantasy managers projecting Hockenson as a top-three tight end.
- Round 6, Pick 57 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 65 - 2022 Rank: 67
Moore hadn't been able to catch a break with the quarterbacks he's played with throughout his career. He is one of the most gifted receivers in the league, but we've yet to see him unlocked. Last year's 888 yards was the first time since his rookie year he's posted less than 1,157 yards. Of course, in his worst yardage season, he scored seven touchdowns, which was the first time in his career he had more than four. Using him in fantasy lineups was a rollercoaster ride. He had four games with fewer than 10 yards but three games with more than 100. He also was limited to 10-30 yards on four other occasions. He's still young as he enters his age-26 season. The good news is that even though we've yet to see it, Justin Fields should be the best QB he's ever played with. And if Fields plays to his perceived ability, Moore could be in line for a career year. But even if Fields doesn't show major improvement, with Moore as the clear lead receiver on the team, his floor should be the 1,150 yards and four touchdowns he averaged between 2019-2021.
- Round 7, Pick 64 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 68 - 2022 Rank: 59
After racking up 1,082 yards on 129 targets in 2021, Pittman dipped to 925 yards on 141 targets last season. The decline in efficiency can be attributed to abhorrent quarterback play by the combination of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles. Entering his fourth NFL season, Pittman once again profiles as the clear No. 1 WR for the Colts, but the team's QB situation remains murky. Indianapolis signed Gardner Minshew and drafted Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Minshew probably represents an upgrade over the options throwing Pittman the ball last year, but Richardson will likely claim the starting job before long, and the question marks about Richardson's accuracy coupled with his running ability could lead to declines in both passing volume and efficiency. Still, the Colts could find themselves playing from behind often, and the lack of established targets behind Pittman suggests the 25-year-old wide receiver should remain busy after ranking 12th league-wide in targets last season despite missing one game.
- Round 8, Pick 77 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 50 - 2022 Rank: 58
Much of the discussion surrounding Kamara the past couple years has focused on a potential suspension, and the NFL finally made a decision in early August with the announcement of a three-game ban. Otherwise, Kamara is no longer the top-three running back he was the first few years of his career, though he's still recorded at least 1,300 scrimmage yards in each of his six seasons. The past two years he got more carries (240 and 223) but fewer targets (67, 77) after starting his career with four straight seasons of at least 97 targets and fewer than 200 carries. Much of that was related to the Saints transitioning to a run-first offense after Drew Brees' retirement, and it's possible Kamara shifts back toward more receiving work after the team signed a veteran QB (Derek Carr) and a 224-pound RB (Jamaal Williams) and spent a third-round pick on RB Kendre Miller. Less likely is Kamara recovering the TD prowess and remarkable per-touch efficiency of his early years, in part because he's lost a step and in part because Williams and QB/TE Taysom Hill figure to get most of the goal-line carries. There's still potential for Kamara to be an every-week fantasy starter once he completes the three-game suspension, but a high-end-RB1 ceiling is no longer within his range of outcomes.
- Round 9, Pick 84 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 95 - 2022 Rank: 155
Dotson came out of the gates firing as a rookie after being the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft, scoring four touchdowns in his first four NFL games, but a hamstring injury cut short his momentum for the next couple months. He found his groove again down the stretch, though, posting a 21-344-3 line from Week 13 on, and the Penn State product could be poised for a classic Year 2 breakout. While Terry McLaurin remains the Commanders' most reliable wideout, Dotson's speed and ability to make catches in traffic positions him as the better deep threat, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could take full advantage of those traits. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell also offers more upside than last year's starters, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke, did. Dotson saw one more target than McLaurin over those final five games of 2022, and he has a reasonable chance of emerging as the team's No. 1 receiver this season.
- Round 10, Pick 97 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 181 - 2022 Rank: 223
The 2022 season was a frustrating one for Butker, a kicker not used to struggling. An ankle injury in Week 1 seemed to stick with Butker for most of the year, and he ended up converting just 18 of his 24 field goal attempts in 13 games. If Butker had stayed healthy he would have likely posted a much better conversion rate. In each of the five prior seasons Butker finished with a field goal percentage of 88.9 or better, even while kicking often and regularly from long range. Now healthy again, Butker should resume his pre-2022 functions as a high-volume, high-efficiency kicker in one of the league's best offenses. Before 2022 Butker averaged 29 field goals and 47 PATs made per season.
DEF - Round 11, Pick 104 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 210 - 2022 Rank: 88
Though the 2022 campaign was a substandard effort for the Patriots as a whole, the defense remained a clear strength. New England finished the season only allowing 20.4 points per game, 11th best in the league, while finishing second in turnovers and third in sacks. Coach Bill Belichick's ability to make the most out of his talent on defense is beyond repute. First-round rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez joins a number of other high-end talents, namely OLB Matthew Judon, ILB Ja'Whaun Bentley, S Kyle Dugger and CB Jonathan Jones. Those names lead a unit that also boasts solid depth, providing plenty of reason for optimism that this defense can remain excellent in 2023. That'll need to be the case for the Patriots to find success, considering the other rosters in this division.
- Round 12, Pick 117 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 83 - 2022 Rank: 109
Sutton could remain a trade candidate if the Broncos see an opportunity to move him, only because his cap hit is very high for the next three years, but if they can't move Sutton then they might as well make good use of him in 2023. Disappointing as his last two seasons have been, the first was his initial return from an ACL tear the prior year, and both seasons were defined by memorably poor quarterback play. It's also worth noting that Sutton drew 12 defensive pass interference calls those two years -- a high figure. Fellow receiver Jerry Jeudy drew only three defensive pass interference calls over the same time span, for instance. If a handful of those DPI calls had been catches for the according yardage then that would have been enough for Sutton's numbers to look a little better. Hopefully, this season gives Sutton a chance to remind what he can do when he's healthy and has decent quarterback play to work with, because the production from Sutton's first two NFL seasons made him look like a future star.
- Round 13, Pick 124 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 44 - 2022 Rank: 748
The Colts couldn't pass up Richardson's tremendous athletic upside with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The rookie out of Florida is raw, having completed only 53.8 percent of his passes last season, but Richardson has one of the most impressive physical profiles ever among QB prospects. Richarson has a cannon for an arm at 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds, plus he boasts 4.44 speed and set the QB record at the NFL Combine with a 40.5-inch vertical jump. Indianapolis also brought in Gardner Minshew in free agency, but it's likely just a matter of time until Richardson is handed the reins to the offense, and the rookie should be involved in short yardage and goal-line packages from the get-go. Even under the tutelage of head coach Shane Steichen, who oversaw the meteoric rise of fellow dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts as Philadelphia's offensive coordinator over the past two seasons, Richardson will likely struggle as a passer early in his NFL career, especially with few established targets to throw to besides Michael Pittman in a run-first offense centered around RB Jonathan Taylor. Still, Richardson's rushing ability (nine rushing TDs in 2022) makes him the most intriguing member of this rookie QB class from a fantasy perspective, as Justin Fields proved last year that you don't need to be a proficient passer to find significant fantasy success as a QB in the modern NFL.
- Round 14, Pick 137 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 107 - 2022 Rank: 751
Kincaid was selected as the No. 1 tight end off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, No. 25 overall, by virtue of his pass-catching chops. Dawson Knox is already established as a red zone threat and capable blocker, and he's spent years building chemistry with Josh Allen, meaning it could be difficult for Kincaid to get a foothold out of the gate. Of course, the draft capital invested in Kincaid solidifies him as Buffalo's future, and though rookies at his position usually get off to a slow start, Kincaid is a rare talent. He could be capable of taking the field at the same times as Knox on occasion, by virtue of operating out of the slot, as long as he's able to get up to speed at the NFL level early. Buffalo's offense is high-octane enough to feed multiple mouths, but in the end, it's more likely that Kincaid emerges down the stretch than in the early weeks of the season.
- Round 15, Pick 144 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 135 - 2022 Rank: 777
The NFL hasn't seen a running back of Achane's undersized frame succeed as more than a gadget player since Warrick Dunn in 1997. On the other hand, smaller wide receivers have begun finding real success in the modern league, and Achane is a more than capable pass-catcher. It shouldn't be overlooked, though, that he did hold up to significant volume at Texas A&M. Neither of Raheem Mostert nor Jeff Wilson is a slouch, so it's not as though the rookie-third-round pick would have a clear path to workhorse status even if he did boast prototypical size. Excitement over Achane stems less from projections of the volume and more from what his tools and 4.32-40 speed might accomplish in coach Mike McDaniel's scheme. Schemed plays ought to be regularly featured for Achane, and if he's able to earn sizeable weekly volume in Miami's backfield timeshare, his production could surprise.
- Round 16, Pick 157 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 112 - 2022 Rank: 767
Mims could very well prove a steal of a late-second-round pick, considering he was a remarkably productive player at Oklahoma, boasting absurd efficiency stats even as the team's most-targeted receiver. Mims just turned 21 in March, yet in his Oklahoma career he caught 123 passes for 2,398 yards and 20 touchdowns on just 183 targets (67.2 percent catch rate, 13.1 yards per target). It's highly unusual for a receiver to produce efficiency stats like that as a team's lead target over a three-year span, especially all before turning 21. With sub-4.4 wheels and a rare ability to track downfield passes, Mims could be the next T.Y. Hilton or something similar. Even if he is, though, it might take a year for Mims to get the space to prove it, as he's unlikely to be more than the No. 3 receiver in an offense that already has Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
