In the NFC CHAMPIONS league, the Lunatic Leader found themselves with the 2nd pick in the draft. With 16 rounds to work with, they had the opportunity to build a solid team. However, their draft grade of C- suggests that they may have missed the mark. Despite making a few decent picks, their projected record of 7-7-0 and 6th place finish leave much to be desired. It seems like the Lunatic Leader may have some tough competition ahead.
One bright spot for the Lunatic Leader was their selection of Mark Andrews at pick 39, beating out his ADP of 33. This could prove to be a steal for the team. On the other hand, their worst pick was James Cook at pick 59, who had an ADP of 78. It's always a bit disappointing when a player is taken earlier than expected, especially when there were potentially better options available. With a draft grade of C- and a projected finish of 6th, the Lunatic Leader will need to step up their game if they want to live up to their name.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 2 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 1 - 2022 Rank: 7
After a pair of injury-marred seasons, McCaffrey played the entire season and looked as dominant as he had in prior seasons. His 4.7 yards per carry was his best since 2019. Although he didn't have some of the crazy yardage totals from earlier in his career, he posted 1,210 scrimmage yards and 85 receptions while scoring 10 times over 11 games with the 49ers after an in-season trade. When running the ball McCaffery had a solid 74th-percentile broken tackle rate, but he was able to turn that into 94th-percentile yardage after contact. He wasn't as lethal as a receiver, posting a 52nd-percentile yards after the catch rate. However, with another year in the Shanahan system, that certainly could change as the veteran back learns the nuances of the offense. Down the stretch McCaffrey was scoring a touchdown, posting 100 scrimmage yards and recording over 20 PPR points in almost every game. Now that he's in an offense in which defenses have to worry about a variety of players, McCaffrey still can be the top scoring fantasy running back without seeing 400 touches.
- Round 2, Pick 19 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 10 - 2022 Rank: 29
After being eased into his role during the first half of his 2021 rookie season, St. Brown has been an excellent fantasy producer. Last year, he had a strong weekly scoring floor, as he was targeted at least nine times and posted at least 60 yards in 12 games. St. Brown ran 76% of his snaps from the slot and had an impressive 72nd percentile yards after the catch rate. Despite missing one game while also seeing very limited snaps in the following two games, St. Brown ended the season with 149 targets. That target total ranked 9th in the NFL. There is a strong chance St. Brown maintains that high target count in 2023. Fellow wideout Jameson Williams has been suspended due to a gambling issue. And talented tight end T.J Hockenson is now in Minnesota. St. Brown is clearly quarterback Jared Goff's favorite option. Based on what St. Brown displayed in his first two seasons, he should be in the conversation as a top-15 selection in fantasy drafts, though in many PPR formats he'll often go in the first 10 picks.
- Round 3, Pick 22 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 17 - 2022 Rank: 4
Hurts ascended to elite status in 2022, finishing as QB3 for fantasy purposes while posting MVP-quality numbers and leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl. The improvements he made as a passer during his first two seasons in the league paid dividends after the team added A.J. Brown to a receiving corps already headlined by DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Hurts emerged as one of the NFL's most accurate passers in his third campaign. It's his running ability, however, that takes his production to another level. Nick Sirianni's scheme is designed around his game-breaking ability on the ground, and Hurts' 13 rushing touchdowns were the second most in NFL history by a quarterback. While it's hard to bank on that kind of record-setting performance repeating itself, the league elected not to legislate away the team's "tush push" rugby scrum approach to gaining short yards and getting the ball across the goal line, so double-digit rushing TDs could well be his floor. Hurts may not match the volume or pure passing upside of the likes of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, but at 24 years old, his best days should still be ahead of him.
- Round 4, Pick 39 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 28 - 2022 Rank: 75
Andrews had a massive year in 2021 with personal bests by margins of 43 catches (107) and 509 yards (1,361), including the most productive stretch of his career while catching passes from backup QB Tyler Huntley. It was a much different story in 2022, when Andrews averaged 63.1 yards in the nine games for which he and Lamar Jackson both were healthy but then dropped to 49.2 yards in five regular-season games with Huntley taking most of the snaps. All five of Andrews' TDs came from Jackson, who inked a five-year extension with Baltimore this offseason and now has more help after the signing of WR Odell Beckham and drafting of WR Zay Flowers. That amounts to more target competition for Andrews, but he's still the most trusted of Baltimore's receiving options and could end up running more routes under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, formerly the OC at Georgia. Kansas City's Travis Kelce remains in a league of his own, of course, but it's otherwise hard to name another tight end with a floor or ceiling higher than Andrews'.
- Round 5, Pick 42 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 57 - 2022 Rank: 41
Lockett has been one of the most consistent performers in the NFL over the last four years. During that time, he's posted between 1,033 and 1,175 yards. He's also scored between 8-10 touchdowns in five straight years. His targets have also been consistent, as he has seen between 107 and 117 in three of the last four years. Last year, he had an excellent weekly scoring floor. He posted at least 60 yards in 10 games. He's going into his age 31 season, so decline is likely on the horizon, but from what we've seen, he may likely have a gradual descent opposed to a complete loss of skills. Lockett will likely be a value in drafts like he was last year, and betting on his consistency over many years seems like a safe bet.
- Round 6, Pick 59 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 45 - 2022 Rank: 205
Cook's role was limited as a rookie, but he showcased impressive efficiency (5.7 YPC) in those contained flashes. The departure of Devin Singletary should make it easy for Cook to build upon last season's 89 carries and 32 targets, though new arrival Damien Harris represents significant competition, especially for between-the-tackles and goal-line work. Cook's best path to production will be to translate his efficiency to the receiving game, though he didn't exactly impress in that respect as a rookie. Cook caught just 65.6 percent of his targets for 5.6 YPT last season, but as he was never more than a rotational back at Georgia, he could benefit even more than the usual RB from a second offseason to get up to speed at the NFL level. Veteran Latavius Murray is also capable of rotating in for carries. And Josh Allen's elite rushing abilities further reduce the opportunities up for grabs in Buffalo's backfield. A scenario where Cook truly emerges isn't impossible, but he'll need to distinguish himself from the crowd.
- Round 7, Pick 62 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 41 - 2022 Rank: 50
Coming off a late-season ACL injury in 2021, Godwin had a productive season. With Tom Brady getting the ball out quicker than ever, it benefitted Godwin, who played out of the slot 67 percent of the time. He set career highs with 104 catches and 142 targets. Meanwhile, his 9.8 yards per reception was well below his career average of over 13 yards. But he was still excellent with the ball in his hands. He posted a 72nd-percentile yards after the catch rate that allowed him to produce despite a 7.2 average yards per target. However, Godwin is an elite player, who is great at getting open and creating yardage. Baker Mayfield may not be a very good QB, but since Godwin can get open quickly and if he's always where he's expected to be when plays are called. Before Mayfield's injury-plagued 2021 season, Jarvis Landry averaged 79/997/4 (152) in three seasons with him, so Godwin, who is significantly better than Landry was, could easily explode in this offense. He may not have top-8 upside as he did in 2019, but he could finish in the top 18 at his position.
- Round 8, Pick 79 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 42 - 2022 Rank: 97
Watson dealt with a nagging injury to start last season and didn't really come on until the second half of the season. He had an incredible stretch of four games between weeks 10 and 13 when he posted 323 yards, 49 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He was still good down the stretch, posting between 46 and 49 yards in each of his last four games, though he didn't score during that span. His speed is difference making, but his route running is still questionable. The drop off from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love could be problematic for him. However, he should be the clear No. 1 receiver, so he should get targeted often. But he's difficult to predict because if he doesn't improve his route running, defenses already understand that he can get over the top, which will allow them to prepare for that. Those who believe he'll figure out the route running, should project him aggressively, but that's not a guarantee to happen. Those who aren't sold on Watson building his versatility may require a more conservative projection than many analysts who are focusing solely on the upside.
- Round 9, Pick 82 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 36 - 2022 Rank: 77
A second-round pick in 2020, Swift flashed his talent and upside over three seasons with the Lions but also demonstrated an unfortunate propensity for getting hurt, and he got flipped to the Eagles in the offseason. Having proven he can't hold up under a big workload, the Georgia product could find himself in a somewhat ideal situation in the final year of his rookie contract, as coach Nick Sirianni has leaned toward using a backfield committee during his time at the helm in Philadelphia. The big question will be who's involved in that committee for any particular week in 2023. Miles Sanders is now in Carolina, but Swift will be joined by fellow injury-prone newcomer Rashaad Penny, and holdovers Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott have had their moments in an Eagles uniform. Swift's three-down skill set gives him more versatility than Penny, but the duo could both be extremely effective behind the team's elite offensive line if reduced volume allows them to stay out of the trainer's room.
- Round 10, Pick 99 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 98 - 2022 Rank: 91
Davis may be the posterchild definition of a post-hype sleeper. After endless debate last offseason, Davis ended 2022 with an underwhelming 48-836-7 on 93 targets in 15 games, career highs almost across the board, but disappointing compared to the 201 yards and four touchdowns he put up in a playoff loss to Kansas City he put up to end the previous season. When remembering that Davis managed this while playing second fiddle to Stefon Diggs, a top-5 wideout in the league by almost any metric, his Year 3 step forward looks a bit more favorable. The Bills added a first-round tight end in Dalton Kincaid this offseason, but Davis remains primed to play a key role in this passing game, potentially as a more trusted No. 2 option for Josh Allen. After a boom-or-bust 2022 campaign, it's possible Davis could manage more consistency this season.
- Round 11, Pick 102 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 104 - 2022 Rank: 47
Williams had a strong fantasy season with the Lions in 2022. He blew away his previous career highs with 262 carries and 1,066 yards, and his league-leading 17 rushing TDs were more than he scored through his first five years in the league combined (13). However, his use as a receiver evaporated. After catching at least 25 passes in each of his first five years, he had only 12 receptions in 2022. Once valued for versatility, Williams produced his best fantasy season while handling a more one-dimensional role. He now heads to New Orleans, where Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season but QB/TE Taysom Hill ensures there will be competition for goal-line carries all the same. If the Saints view Williams the way the Packers once did, he could catch more passes over the first three weeks than he did all of last season, though the receiving volume would then figure to fall off a cliff upon Kamara's return. Further complicating matters is the presence of rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller, who could also get carries early in the season. It's probably best to view Williams as an RB2 for September and a question mark thereafter, though his history of varied usage suggests there are quite a few different ways things could play out.
- Round 12, Pick 119 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 167 - 2022 Rank: 71
McKinnon's ability to improvise with Patrick Mahomes while phasing out of blitz pickup or play-action makes him difficult for defenses to keep track of, especially the longer a play goes on. The Chiefs offensive line is excellent and Mahomes might be the most dangerous improviser at quarterback the league has ever seen, so Mahomes extends plays regularly enough for McKinnon to make a fantasy impact even as a backup. It's not clear how locked in McKinnon might be relative to his 2022 workload - Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are both capable of poaching passing-down snaps - but in 2022 McKinnon just about had the Kansas City running back receiving production to himself. As much as it seems unlikely that McKinnon would play more than the 497 snaps he did in 2022, it's also not obvious why the Chiefs would scale it back too much. With that said, if McKinnon is to be a useful fantasy asset in 2023 then he'll likely need to make it happen as a receiver, so he can't afford to lose any passing-down snaps.
- Round 13, Pick 122 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 122 - 2022 Rank: 76
Smith-Schuster technically operated as the Chiefs' top wide receiver during last season's Super Bowl run, putting up a 78-833-3 line in the regular season. In reality, though, he served as a true No. 2 receiving option behind tight end Travis Kelce. The Patriots saw fit to seemingly swap out Jakobi Meyers for Smith-Schuster, presumably setting up to handle a similar big-slot role, which does bode well, but production may be harder to come from while catching passes from Mac Jones instead of Patrick Mahomes. The acquisition of Mike Gesicki to pair with Hunter Henry could also forebode the Patriots running more two-TE sets, in which case an outside WR would likely share the field rather than a slot man. Still, Smith-Schuster's three-year, $25.5 million deal with $16 million guaranteed at signing is a nice guarantee of his involvement as a key pillar on offense. His base salaries for 2023 and 2024 are guaranteed, so he figures to remain in New England for at minimum a two-year stint.
- Round 14, Pick 139 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 196 - 2022 Rank: 308
Few NFL players have as much upside intrigue as Toney, but it's also true that few NFL players are half as confusing. It's a given that Toney is a unique, maybe even one-of-a-kind threat when he has the ball, but his durability struggles and mercurial relationship with the Giants made it difficult to tell whether he has anything else to his game. To this point, Toney has never run a legitimate combination of routes, so while he certainly has the athleticism to be an all-around receiver it's not clear whether he'll ever develop the route-running acumen necessary to do so. Now 24, Toney has some but not much time to demonstrate skills growth before we have to stare down the possibility that he simply is what he already is. Even if Toney never improves a bit, though, he should still be a nightmarish after-the-catch threat as an underneath specialist for the Chiefs. The Chiefs want him to step up as their WR1, so if he makes the necessary improvements then the fantasy rewards could be enormous. Very little is truly guaranteed, though.
- Round 15, Pick 142 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 145 - 2022 Rank: 353
Mitchell is an incredibly talented running back. He had an excellent 89th percentile broken tackle rate, and when he was in a rotation of Christian McCaffrey, he often piled up significant yardage in limited opportunities. However, he was injured three separate times last year. And that came after a rookie season in which he missed time as well. Obviously, injuries are difficult to predict, but the amount of injuries he's had in such a short time makes him a significant injury risk. And the fact that he was getting hurt in a backup role is even more concerning. If he was able to stay healthy and had to take over the starting role for McCaffrey for a period of time, he would be a strong fantasy option. However, Mitchell carries quite a bit of risk.
- Round 16, Pick 159 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 246 - 2022 Rank: 143
In 2021, Patterson played seven games for the Lions, missing just one kick. He maintained this impressive performance in 2022 by converting 30 out of 35 field goals and 36 out of 37 attempts on PATs while playing for the Jaguars. Although only attempting four FGs from 50-plus yards, he boasts career conversion rates of 87.8 percent and 97.3 percent on FGs and PATs, respectively. Despite his successes, the Jags decided to trade him to the Lions, as they preferred the experience of Brandon McManus. Patterson now has the opportunity to compete for a kicker position with John Parker Romo in Detroit. The victor may end up having fantasy value, kicking for a dome team that scored a lot of points last season.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
