In the NFC CHAMPIONS league, The Merge found themselves in the unenviable 10th draft order position. With 16 rounds to navigate, they were faced with the daunting task of building a winning team. Unfortunately, their efforts were met with a resounding 'D' grade, leaving them feeling more like a draft disaster than a draft master. Projected to finish 7th with a lackluster 5-9-0 record, it seems The Merge may have merged with mediocrity rather than championship aspirations.
While there were a few glimmers of hope in their draft, such as snagging Travis Kelce at the 10th spot, beating out their ADP of 7, those moments were overshadowed by their worst pick of the night. Selecting Daniel Jones at 71, a far cry from their ADP of 96, The Merge seemed to have taken a detour into questionable decision-making territory. With a schedule difficulty ranked as the 6th toughest out of 10 teams and three players on bye week 10, it's clear that The Merge will have their work cut out for them this season. Perhaps they should consider a name change to 'The Mediocre Merge' to better reflect their projected performance.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 10 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 8 - 2022 Rank: 19
A tight end only in title, Kelce is the WR1 of the Chiefs for all practical purposes. If one figures Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league and Kelce is basically his WR1, then it's easy to see why Kelce is a consensus first-round fantasy pick, and one who often goes as high as the top five. There's no historical precedent for tight ends to be drafted so high in fantasy, but Kelce continues to justify the expense year after year. The question is how much longer Kelce can continue to produce at these unprecedented levels. Unpleasant as it is to think about, the specter of decline looms with Kelce turning 34 in October, and it's unclear how easily he'll run his current route tree if he loses a step. Kelce certainly didn't look like a player facing decline in 2022, as his 152 targets and 12 touchdowns were both career highs. So long as Kelce remains in full form he has no imitators and is worthy of first round selection.
- Round 2, Pick 11 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: 753
One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.
- Round 3, Pick 30 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 21 - 2022 Rank: 31
The 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Smith followed up his strong rookie campaign with an even better Year 2. Rather than being overshadowed by A.J. Brown after he was acquired from the Titans, the different skill sets of the two wideouts proved to complement each other perfectly, and their presence downfield allowed Jalen Hurts to break out and join the ranks of elite NFL quarterbacks. The two receivers saw similar volumes, and while Brown's size and athleticism made him a better deep threat, Smith's sharp route-running allowed him to pick apart defenses in the intermediate parts of the field. The Eagles had little turnover on the offensive side of the ball after their NFC Championship, so Smith's role figures to remain stable in 2023. He should continue to feature prominently in debates about who the best No. 2 receiver in the league is, alongside Tee Higgins and Jaylen Waddle.
- Round 4, Pick 31 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 30 - 2022 Rank: 32
Last year, Jones was typically drafted as a top-10 running back. He ended the season with 1,516 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. That made Jones a very good early pick. So what happened this offseason? He took a $5 million pay cut. The big difference in the offense is that Aaron Rodgers is out and Jordan Love is in at quarterback. Rodgers was excellent when throwing to running backs, though we don't know how Love will be in that capacity. In early drafts, Jones is being selected outside of the top-15 running backs. His stock may be dropping because he's entering his age-28 season. In addition, fantasy managers may not be excited about the direction of the offense with Rodgers gone. Regardless, Jones has averaged over five yards per carry over his career, including a 5.3 mark last year. In addition, he's posted at least 355 receiving yards in the last four years. He had taken on the lead role over AJ Dillon last year, but once Jones was dealing with late-season injury issues, Dillon cut significantly into the workload. Jones may be the best player on the Green Bay offense, and the coaching staff may need to make him the focal point. If they do, Jones would become a great value in fantasy drafts.
- Round 5, Pick 50 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 58 - 2022 Rank: 254
Mattison's value in the last few years has simply been that he did pretty well when Dalvin Cook missed time. However, he was inconsistent in the games he had to take over as a starter. With Cook no longer on the team, Mattison enters the season as the lead running back. As he's shown in limited opportunities, the weekly upside can be great, but without him having a consistent role in the past, it's unclear how he'll function in that role. He's never had more than 134 carries in any of his four years in the league. After averaging 4.6 and 4.5 yards per carry in his first two years, he dropped to 3.8 and 3.7 in the last two years. Although he had an impressive 79th-percentile broken-tackle rate, he was only in the 34th percentile in yards after contact, which may mean that some of his early-career explosiveness has been lacking. He could have competition from players the team has drafted in each of the past two years, Ty Chandler and DeWayne McBride, in addition to Kene Nwangwu. Mattison is attractive for fantasy based on the potential for heavy volume. However, his recent production and potential competition could be problematic.
- Round 6, Pick 51 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 87 - 2022 Rank: 120
Akers had a weird 2022 season. We'll never know if he was still recovering from the Achilles injury he suffered in 2021. In Weeks 1-10, he averaged 2.83 yards per carry and was benched for two games. Although he faced four of the top 10 defenses in those seven games, he looked as if he was struggling to get to the line of scrimmage before getting hit on most carries. After his banishment, he continued to struggle, as he played 21 snaps but ran for just 2.72 yards per carry. However, he was a completely different player during the last eight games of the season. He rushed for 4.8 yards per carry, though he did that against an easy schedule. He was specifically excellent in Weeks 15 through 18 when he faced defenses in the bottom 10 in three of the four games. He had at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of those games along with a three-touchdown performance. and during that stretch, he averaged 5.47 yards per carry while also catching nine passes. So the big question becomes whether his resurgence had to do with schedule or recovering from his injury. It's likely that the answer is somewhere in the middle. ranking him around RB20 seems safe, as he should get volume, though we're unsure as to what level he'll play at. If it was just a matter of Akers getting back to full health, he will be one of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts, but there is definitely a risk.
- Round 7, Pick 70 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 39 - 2022 Rank: 51
Aiyuk Is an excellent NFL receiver. He runs great routes, and he navigates traffic extremely well. He also had a solid 66th-percentile yards after the catch rate. Although he had the best season of his career with 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns, he was inconsistent. The main reason is that the 49ers often lean on their rushing attack, and they also have a number of weapons who they can choose to feature as receivers in any game. The problem for Aiyuk is that he can get ignored depending on the game script. He had 10 games in which he was targeted fewer than six times. That also led to him scoring fewer than 10 PPR points on eight occasions. He did have some upside by scoring at least 20 PPR points three times, but you get the picture. At the end of the season, good numbers will likely be there, but the path won't always be fun.
- Round 8, Pick 71 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 105 - 2022 Rank: 21
Jones wound up as a top-10 fantasy quarterback last year thanks to his rushing production, as his passing totals remained flat under new coach Brian Daboll. He did improve his accuracy though and threw fewer interceptions, as Daboll largely removed the downfield pass from the playbook and had the 26-year-old dink and dunk to keep the chains moving. While Jones may not have the downfield accuracy to test secondaries consistently, he also didn't have a lot to work with as injuries decimated an already lackluster receiving corps. The Giants made some effort to address that in the offseason, notably adding tight end Darren Waller in a trade with the Raiders. Jones was given a four-year, $160 million contract in March, which is a pretty clear sign Daboll think there's more untapped potential in the 2019 first-round pick, but expecting him to turn into the next Josh Allen is probably asking too much. As a positive, the resolution of Saquon Barkley's contract status (a one year deal) should maintain balance in the Giants' attack. Barkley's presence makes it difficult to for defenses to also spy on Jones' scrambling opportunities.
DEF - Round 9, Pick 90 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 165 - 2022 Rank: 149
The Bills are staring down a worrying amount of turnover on the defensive side of the ball, with DC Leslie Frazier moving away from coaching and MLB Tremaine Edmunds now in Chicago. Von Miller is working his way back from an ACL tear and in danger of getting off to a slow start, but this is a unit that should return 10 of 11 starters. Coach Sean McDermott reportedly intends to call plays, which should provide this unit with a reasonable floor at least. However, the Bills are facing an extremely difficult schedule and won't have many victories handed to them, and the addition of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets places Buffalo in perhaps the NFL's toughest division. The Dolphins offense should again be high-scoring, while Mac Jones and the Patriots seem situated for improvement with new OC Bill O'Brien at the helm.
- Round 10, Pick 91 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 218 - 2022 Rank: 110
It's tough to compete with Justin Tucker for the title of the NFL's best kicker, but Carlson sure is putting together a strong challenge to this point in his career. The former Auburn standout has played at an All-Decade level in four of the last five years, the one exception being 2019 season where he only made 19 of 26 field goals. In the other four seasons Carlson has been pretty much perfect, even with high field goal attempt volume and with many of those kicks occurring from long range. Indeed, Carlson's 2022 season was quietly incredible due to the fact that he made 11 of 13 field goals from 50 yards or more. Carlson is a high-volume, long-range shooter who very rarely misses. Few kickers affect the game as much as Carlson.
- Round 11, Pick 110 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 129 - 2022 Rank: 749
Smith-Njigba was selected with the 20th pick in this year's draft, profiling as a difference-making slot receiver. Although his 40 time was unimpressive, he showed excellent agility at the NFL Combine, which is what great slot receivers need, with elite marks in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and short shuttle (3.93). His biggest roadblock to fantasy relevance is his landing spot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will take the majority of WR targets on a team that wants to dominate on the ground. Metcalf is the No. 1 receiver and Lockett, even in his 30s, is still playing at a high level. Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the third wide receiver it has lacked in recent years and could make an immediate impact in three-receiver sets.
- Round 12, Pick 111 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 91 - 2022 Rank: 136
Signed to a two-year, $7.5 million contract in free agency, Perine is Denver's insurance for Javonte Williams while Williams recovers from his season-ending ACL/LCL injury from Week 4. New coach Sean Payton likely appreciated Perine's ability to play passing-down snaps, as Perine can make an impact both as a pass catcher and in blitz pickup. His dense, 240-pound frame allows Perine to withstand big volume if necessary, so his presence buys enough time for Williams to progress at whatever pace the Broncos want. With a career total of 1,592 yards and seven touchdowns rushing at 4.0 yards per carry, however, it's safe to say that Perine is volume-dependent as a runner. So long as Williams is active, it's difficult to imagine Perine claiming the rushing volume necessary to stand out. If the volume is up for grabs, though, Perine is prepared to shoulder it.
- Round 13, Pick 130 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 92 - 2022 Rank: 123
Although the Rams had a terrible season on offense, the same cannot be said for Higbee. He had career highs with 72 receptions and 108 targets. However, due to the crumbling offensive line and carousel at quarterback, his 8.6 yards per reception was the lowest since his 2016 rookie season. Higbee was frequently used on tight end screens, so his 64th-percentile yards after the catch rate helped him to post decent yardage totals, but he was very inconsistent (he had 15 or fewer yards in seven of his last 12 games). Nonetheless, in Weeks 1-5 when the offense was decent, he had between 39 and 73 yards in each game. Going into his age-30 season, it's unlikely Higbee will finish inside the top-12 tight ends, but he should be in the tier below that.
- Round 14, Pick 131 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 114 - 2022 Rank: 11
Typically when each season ends, Cousins puts up very good seasonal numbers. It's the week-to-week ride that can be very problematic for fantasy managers. He threw for the second-most yardage of his career last year, but don't forget we're in a 17-game season these days, so those numbers can be skewed a bit. Cousins threw 14 interceptions in 2022, which was his highest total in a season to go along with 29 touchdowns. And although he's great for having explosive games, Cousins had three games with at least three touchdown passes, he often goes flat. He had eight games in which he threw zero or one touchdown. Cousins also had three games in which he failed to surpass 175 passing yards. Still not enough? He had four games with multiple interceptions. Cousins' ceiling games make him an excellent option in best ball leagues. But in redraft leagues, the implosion games are often unpredictable, and that makes him better as a QB2 in leagues that start a single quarterback. He's obviously a great option in leagues that start two quarterbacks.
- Round 15, Pick 150 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 131 - 2022 Rank: 251
Harris stays in the division after departing New England, inking a one-year deal with the Bills which sets him up as a key member of Buffalo's backfield. A thigh injury limited Harris to 11 games last season, but he remained efficient with 4.4 YPC. Durability is something of a concern, though, as Harris has combated lingering hamstring issues in back-to-back seasons. His lack of prowess as a pass catcher leaves clear room for James Cook to work in, almost certainly setting up the Bills for a committee backfield wherein quarterback Josh Allen is arguably still the top option. Harris is Buffalo's best RB option in goal-line and short-yardage scenarios, but Allen is a threat to siphon a substantial amount of those opportunities as well. The plus side for Harris' outlook is that the Bills project to find themselves in clock-killing situations more often than almost any team in the league, and Harris should be the clear go-to guy in those instances.
- Round 16, Pick 151 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 156 - 2022 Rank: 90
Lazard joins quarterback Aaron Rodgers in moving from Green Bay to New York this season. Garrett Wilson is the clear No. 1 option for the passing game, and while no obvious No. 2 wideout stands out, Lazard has the likely inside track following the abrupt retirement of Corey Davis in August. Mecole Hardman will give him his biggest challenge with only Randall Cobb among the top-4 WR. Lazard is a uniquely superior blocker among the Jets' receiving corps, which should guarantee him a sizeable weekly snap share. His connection with Rodgers also shouldn't be overlooked as a mere narrative, as his 6-foot-5 frame and 14 touchdowns the last two seasons are proof that he's trusted by his QB in the red zone. Lazard's four-year, $44 million contract is also incentive to get him involved early and often.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
