In the NFC CHAMPIONS league, Plethora had the unfortunate luck of drafting 7th out of 10 teams. With a draft grade of D and a projected record of 2-12-0, it seems like they may have used a magic 8-ball to make their picks. Despite having the 1st toughest schedule difficulty, Plethora managed to draft 4 players on bye week 5, making it clear that they are aiming for a high score in the 'Who Can Sabotage Themselves the Most' category. The team's best pick was Evan Engram, who was drafted at 94, beating their ADP of 77. Unfortunately, their worst pick was DK Metcalf, who was taken at 27, well above their ADP of 36. To add insult to injury, Plethora decided to go all-in on one team, drafting 3 players from the same team: David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, and Jared Goff. It's clear that Plethora is banking on the power of teamwork, or maybe they just really like matching jerseys.
Plethora's draft performance has left everyone scratching their heads and wondering if they accidentally stumbled into a parallel fantasy universe. With a projected finish of 10th place and a projected points total of 2202.04, it's safe to say that Plethora is setting the bar low for themselves. Maybe they're just trying to prove that it's possible to draft a team that defies all logic and reason. Who needs a winning record when you can have a draft grade of D and a schedule that would make even the most seasoned fantasy manager break out in a cold sweat? Plethora is clearly paving the way for a new era of fantasy football strategy, where the goal is not to win, but to confuse and confound your opponents. With a team name like Plethora, it's only fitting that they would bring a plethora of questionable decisions to the draft table.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 7 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 46 - 2022 Rank: 26
Barkley managed to stay mostly healthy last year for the first time since his rookie season, and the result was a career high in rushing yards. New head coach Brian Daboll made him the centerpiece of his offense in order to take some pressure off quarterback Daniel Jones, although Daboll may have had little choice given the state of the Giants' receiving corps. The new offensive scheme gave Barkley a career high in rushing attempts per game but didn't showcase his pass-catching skills, as he managed less than half the receiving yards he had in 2018 despite finishing fifth in the league among RBs in targets. While Barkley had an impressive rebound after some injury-plagued campaigns, question marks surround the running back headed into 2023. The veteran back presumably is not overjoyed with his new one year contract. In addition, a reinforced group of receivers and tight ends could encourage Daboll to lean more on Jones and the passing game. Barkley has the talent to put up elite numbers out of the backfield, but health and usage remain obstacles to the 26-year-old reaching his fantasy ceiling.
- Round 2, Pick 14 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 18 - 2022 Rank: 16
It seems like Henry's decline is predicted every year, but the 29-year-old running back continues to churn out stellar seasons, and he made some major strides as a pass catcher last year that could help the bruising runner age more gracefully. Henry set career highs last season in targets (41), catches (33) and receiving yards (398) in 2022, nearly doubling his previous best of 206 receiving yards from 2019. Last season, Henry also churned out 1,538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on a league-high 349 carries - numbers right in line with his averages from the previous three seasons. The foot injury that limited Henry to eight games in 2021 is firmly in the rearview mirror, and he looked as spry as ever in 2022, as his 10 carries of 20-plus yards marked the second-highest such total of his career. There are concerns over how many scoring opportunities Henry will get given the state of Tennessee's passing game, and it's fair to wonder if this will be the year that his massive workloads finally catch up to him. But those same concerns haven't stopped Henry before, and he should once again get all the touches he can handle as the focal point of the Titans offense.
- Round 3, Pick 27 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 37 - 2022 Rank: 46
In the current iteration of the Seahawks offense, Metcalf isn't quite the explosive downfield threat that he was earlier in his career. Last year, he saw a career low 11.6 yards per reception while posting just a 10th-percentile yardage after the catch rate. After being targeted 129 times in each of the two prior seasons, Metcalf was targeted 141 times last year leading to a career high 90 catches. To this point, 2020 is looking like his career year, when he had 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. As long as the team continues to roll with Geno Smith as quarterback, it's unlikely that this becomes a team that consistently attacks downfield, which will limit Metcalf's upside. but his target volume should continue to help him be a strong weekly fantasy option. Based on volume and talent, he should remain in the top-15 conversation at wide receiver.
- Round 4, Pick 34 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 38 - 2022 Rank: 35
Cooper rebounded in 2022 after a slow finish to his three-and-a-half year tenure in Dallas. Despite playing most of the season with mediocre quarterback Jacoby Brissett, the veteran wideout reached career highs with nine touchdowns and 132 targets (tying his previous best), also recording 1,160 yards (his second most). Although Cooper has not quite lived up to his predraft hype as a potential high-end WR1, he has six 1,000-yard campaigns in nine years and has never scored fewer than five touchdowns in a season. Last year he actually had better numbers while playing with Brissett than he had with Deshaun Watson. Granted, four of Watson's six games were home contests in Cleveland during December/January, with wind being a factor in at least three of those. The Browns do have other proven offensive weapons in TE David Njoku and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, and offseason addition Elijah Moore has ample potential even after a disappointing 2022 in New York. The larger concern is that Watson did not perform at his usual level last year. If that continues into 2023, it'll be hard for Cooper to match his 2022 stats.
- Round 5, Pick 47 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 34 - 2022 Rank: 94
After having an incredible season in 2021, Samuel wasn't nearly as productive last year. He still was lethal with a 98th-percentile yards after the catch rate. And he was still used all over the formation, including 56 percent of the time in the slot. But in the 13 games he played, he averaged less than eight touches. Also, his 11.3 yards per reception was a career low. Although impressive, his 5.5 yards per rush was less than the 6.2 he had in 2021, and he also was limited to 42 rushing attempts. At age 27, it is possible that he had his career year in 2021, and although a very talented player, he is simply part of a bigger picture on the 49ers in which he'll never be featured to the level that would make him a fantasy superstar.
- Round 6, Pick 54 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 61 - 2022 Rank: 18
By now it's safe to call Herbert one of the league's elite quarterbacks, even after a somewhat disappointing 2022 season saw his touchdown rate and per-pass yardage decline from his 2021 and 2020 seasons. It didn't make much sense for Herbert to only throw for 25 touchdowns in 2022 after throwing for 69 touchdowns over the two prior seasons, so the Chargers decided to make a switch at offensive coordinator, deleting Joe Lombardi's dink-and-dunk offense for a Kellen Moore scheme that will hopefully do more to unleash Herbert's standout downfield passing ability. Between Moore's addition and the selection of first-round wide receiver Quentin Johnston, it's shaping up to be a bounce-back season for Herbert and the Chargers offense. Although it seems Herbert won't ever be inclined to run much, he still has the athleticism to do so. He could provide fantasy production similar to Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen if he can just get his per-pass yardage up over 8.0 yards per attempt. If Herbert's pass attempt volume stabilizes while his per-pass returns spike upward, something like a 5,000-yard, 40-touchdown season could be on the table. He was already close in 2021, when he threw for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns.
- Round 7, Pick 67 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 64 - 2022 Rank: 44
McLaurin has posted four straight strong seasons in the NFL despite playing with a litany of unimpressive quarterbacks that includes Case Keenum, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell will get a chance this year to stop the carousel and establish himself as the Commanders' QB of the future, but until he proves himself, McLaurin's ceiling could remain capped even if his floor seems rock solid. There are reasons for optimism even beyond Howell's development, however. New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy brings an explosive scheme with him from Kansas City, and second-year wideout Jahan Dotson could give defenses someone else to account for downfield. McLaurin has the measurables and skills to take another step forward in his production if things click with Washington's new-look passing game, but at 27 years old his window to make that leap could be closing.
- Round 8, Pick 74 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2160 - 2022 Rank: 79
Back injuries are always concerning, and maybe even more so for Williams given the neck injury he suffered in his Clemson days, but the minor back fracture suffered by Williams in Week 18 appears to be a non-issue. More specifically, Williams said in June that the back had been fully recovered since the spring. So long as he's healthy, then Williams should plug back in to a high-volume role in one of the league's most enviable passing games. Williams' target rate rose significantly over the last two years, a span in which he averaged about 120 targets per 850 snaps after averaging only about 85 targets per 850 snaps in his first four seasons. If he can maintain that elevated target rate for a third year and stay healthy all season then 2023 could shape up to be a career year for Williams. There's a possible concern with the introduction of first-round pick Quentin Johnston, but Johnston is more of a downfield specialist than someone who can run the same intermediate routes as Williams. Rather than Williams' usage, Johnston should instead raid the comparatively inefficient targets that went to Joshua Palmer (107) and Gerald Everett (87).
- Round 9, Pick 87 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 70 - 2022 Rank: 84
Montgomery was serviceable, though not great during his four years in Chicago. He had less than 4.0 yards per carry in three of those years. Explosiveness is an issue. Last year, he was held to just two runs of 20 or more yards, which was the worst of his career. Just like in college, his broken tackle rate is excellent. He was in the 84th percentile in that category. However, he didn't do very much after getting defenders to miss. He ended up in the 50th percentile in yards after contact. He didn't reach 80 yards rushing in a game after Week 2, though he didn't see more than 17 carries in any game. He did see his receiving usage increase toward the end of the season. He was targeted three-to-five times in each of his last six games before a meaningless Week 18 contest. Although not the same physical presence, Montgomery should slot into much of the role that Jamaal Williams had with Detroit last year. The problem is that Montgomery is better as a pass catcher than a runner. And that's where Jahmyr Gibbs is likely superior. Also, Montgomery may not be at the same level of goal line back compared to Williams. It's a confusing situation, but the upside is a solid RB2 but there are many paths to him being just a flex option.
- Round 10, Pick 94 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 79 - 2022 Rank: 85
Engram earned a franchise tag this spring and then a three-year, $42 million contract this summer, cashing in big after his first season in Jacksonville concluded with career highs for catches (73) and receiving yards (766). The 2017 first-round pick mostly struggled in five seasons with the Giants, dropping 17 passes in his last two years with the team that drafted him, but Engram cut his drop total down to five with the Jaguars in 2022. Engram's 4.42 speed fits well into a Jacksonville offense predicated around quick passes by QB Trevor Lawrence. But Engram is undersized for a tight end at 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds, which helps explain why he's surpassed last season's total of four TDs only once in his six-year career. Case in point, Engram tied for fourth among TEs with 98 targets last year, but only nine of those came in the red zone, which ranked outside the top 20 at the position. Wide receivers Christian Kirk (133) and Zay Jones (121) both had more targets than Engram last season, and with WR Calvin Ridley now joining the offense there are a lot of players deserving of Lawrence's attention. Engram's 2023 target count could decline.
DEF - Round 11, Pick 107 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 164 - 2022 Rank: 184
Head coach Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich guided the Jets defense to a massive step forward in Year 2 of their regime. The unit finished fourth in points and yardage, an accomplishment facilitated in no small part by rookie fourth overall pick Sauce Gardner. 2019 third overall pick Quinnen Williams emerged with 28 QB hits and 12 sacks, and the addition of Chuck Clark to the secondary leaves room for improvement in 2023. Last season, of course, New York's defense couldn't make up for abysmal play on the offensive side of the ball, but the addition of QB Aaron Rodgers promises to stabilize things on that front. Barring regression at multiple positions, the Jets' defense looks primed to position the team for a playoff run, as long as the offense can take its promised step forward.
- Round 12, Pick 114 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 190 - 2022 Rank: 124
Koo has proven to be one of the league's finest kickers over the course of three and a half seasons with Atlanta. Despite being tied to subpar offenses, he's often been a top fantasy performer, albeit with some help from the team's dome. He has demonstrated his prowess from 50-plus yards, boasting an impressive record of 20-for-25, and he's also gone 31-for-39 from 40-49 yards. Koo's talent keeps him on the fantasy map again this year even with Falcons QB Desmond Ridder projecting as one of the lesser starting quarterbacks in the league. If the Falcons offense can merely become competent behind a strong running game, Koo is good enough to place among the top fantasy kickers.
- Round 13, Pick 127 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 86 - 2022 Rank: 257
Gainwell gave a glimpse of what he might be able to accomplish in a bigger role in last season's wild-card win over the Giants, erupting for 112 rushing yards and a touchdown, but that could well end up being the high point of his Eagles tenure. A fifth-round pick in 2021, Gainwell's a valuable depth option in Nick Siranni's scheme, but his biggest asset is receiving skills that often go under-utilized in an offense that would rather have Jalen Hurts keep the ball himself than dump it off to a running back. Miles Sanders, another back who didn't get the workload his talent may have warranted, left for Carolina in the offseason, but Gainwell's shot at rising up the depth chart got thwarted when the team signed Rashaad Penny in free agency and traded for D'Andre Swift. The two imports have long injury histories though, so Gainwell might yet get a look as the Eagles' starter if both Swift and Penny happen to be on the shelf at the same time.
- Round 14, Pick 134 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 89 - 2022 Rank: 81
Meyers continues to ascend as an NFL wideout, a conversion project that started in 2016 after he arrived to North Carolina State as a quarterback recruit. Perhaps Meyers will unveil a trick pass now and then, but at this point he's established himself as a natural wide receiver. After primarily lining up as a slot receiver in New England, Josh McDaniels might envision more of an all-around role for Meyers with the Raiders, if only because it's impossible to see how slot specialist Hunter Renfrow would see the field if it were Meyers in the slot. It's not a given that Meyers thrives outside -- his 4.63-second 40 is not normally what you look for in a boundary wideout -- but his lack of speed can be mitigated somewhat if the Raiders line up with tight splits. If the Raiders line up in narrow formations then it places Meyers a little closer to the slot than if he were lining up closer to the sideline, and perhaps that's all the accommodation he needs. With 303 targets on his last 2,180 snaps (118 per 850 snaps) and a three-year, $33 million contract in hand it's safe to say that Meyers will be busy with the Raiders one way or another. As long as Jimmy Garoppolo (foot) stays healthy, Meyers should be a decent bet to surpass 70 catches on the year, even with Davante Adams raking ahead of him.
- Round 15, Pick 147 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 60 - 2022 Rank: 757
Laporta has solid athleticism, but he seems like a typical rookie tight end who needs time to develop. However, being drafted in the second round on a team that has no credible receiving threat at his position puts Laporta in the equation as an immediate fantasy option. He's more of a seam-stretcher than a possession receiver, so even if he gets targets, he may be hit-or-miss from week-to-week. It seems likely he'll finish outside the top-20 at his position, though there is some upside if he develops quickly. Four tight ends combined to catch 12 touchdowns in Detroit's offense in 2022, proving this is a favorable scheme for the position in the red zone. Furthermore, projected No. 2 receiver Jameson Williams will serve a suspension for the season's first six games, potentially opening up more targets in the passing game.
- Round 16, Pick 154 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 115 - 2022 Rank: 14
In many fantasy leagues, Goff was an afterthought going into the 2022 season. He ended up being a very strong fantasy performer. His 29:7 TD:INT was the best of his seven-year career. He also had an impressive 65.1% completion rate. Although that percentage was 2% lower than his previous two seasons, that could be explained away by his 7.6 yards per attempt, which was his highest in the previous four years. Goff completed 12 passes of at least 40 yards while posting 300 yards in five games. The only knock on his season was that he was very different at home versus on the road. He threw 23 touchdown passes at home but only six in away games. Goff has very good weapons going into the season, though Jameson Williams will miss the first six games (suspension). It's clear that the Detroit coaching staff is willing to let their quarterback air the ball out. Since it's possible that Goff's road struggles continue, he may be best viewed as a streaming option in leagues that require one starting quarterback.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
