In the NFC CHAMPIONS league, the DESERTDOGS made their mark with a solid B- draft grade. Positioned 6th in the draft order, they navigated through 16 rounds of picks with a mix of skill and luck. While their projected record of 9-5-0 and 2nd place finish is nothing to scoff at, the DESERTDOGS are eager to sink their teeth into the competition and prove they're top dogs. With a projected points total of 2224.37, they'll need to unleash their desert prowess to secure their spot in the playoffs.
The DESERTDOGS may have faced some challenges in their draft, but they managed to make some standout picks. Their best pick was snagging Rhamondre Stevenson at 35, beating out the player's ADP of 30. This savvy move shows that the DESERTDOGS have an eye for talent and aren't afraid to take risks. However, not every pick was a winner, as they reached a bit for George Pickens at 75, who had an ADP of 95. But hey, sometimes you have to trust your instincts, even if they lead you astray. With their thirst for victory, the DESERTDOGS are ready to chase down the competition and leave them in the dust.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 6 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 3 - 2022 Rank: 9
Hill's record of exceptional on-field play has been consistent enough that his first year in Miami may actually be flying under the radar. Wide receivers usually see a dip in production in their first year with a new team, but Hill's inaugural season with the Dolphins saw him rack up a career-high 1,710 receiving yards (11th most in NFL history) to go with eight total touchdowns. The speedster managed that feat despite enduring tumultuous injuries at the quarterback position, and catching passes from a third-stringer by the end of the season. Part of the credit needs to go to coach Mike McDaniel's outstanding offensive scheme, and to Tua Tagovailoa's play under center. But the ultimate takeaway is that Hill is a game-breaker still in his prime. In 17 games last season, Hill broke 100 yards on seven occasions and led the entire NFL with 3.20 yards per route run. He seems a likely candidate for positive touchdown regression, especially if Tagovailoa can put together an fully healthy season. With Jaylen Waddle present to keep defenses honest but no other target competition of real significance, Hill finds himself in the perfect situation to once again produce Top-5 wide receiver stats.
- Round 2, Pick 15 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 9 - 2022 Rank: 22
After spending the first three seasons of his career stuck in a run-focused Titans offense that didn't always take advantage of Brown's imposing physicality, the 2019 second-round pick got traded to the Eagles and was unleashed on the NFL. He shattered his career highs in both receiving volume and efficiency nearly across the board, and his presence alongside DeVonta Smith on the outside helped quarterback Jalen Hurts blossom into an MVP candidate. After a run to the Super Bowl, Philadelphia was able to avoid significant turnover on the offensive side of the ball, so there's little reason to expect Brown's usage to decline in 2023. On the other hand, there's little reason to expect it to increase either. Hurts' elite running ability puts a cap on the team's passing volume, and Brown still has to split looks with Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, although the team's other skill players didn't get used much as receivers last year. Brown will have to rely on big plays and red-zone targets to post elite numbers again, but he's more than capable of doing so.
- Round 3, Pick 26 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 31 - 2022 Rank: 754
The Lions clearly think Gibbs is a franchise RB after using the 12th pick in the draft on him. He doesn't have an ideal lead RB size, but he's not a small back either. However, he doesn't profile as a strong interior runner. His game is vision and speed, and he has elite skills in those areas. Getting him in space as a runner and receiver would make the ideal situation for him. Since the team has David Montgomery, Gibbs could be held below 250 touches and lose red-zone opportunities, though that isn't a guarantee. His range of outcomes is vast. Those who believe he'll be a game-breaker from Day One should aggressively target him in drafts. The concerns are that his touches will be limited and will lessen his potential upside. Though drafting him outside the top-12 running backs would still make him very valuable if he sees fewer touches than the top-backs in the league.
- Round 4, Pick 35 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 32 - 2022 Rank: 38
Stevenson's raw athletic numbers don't jump off the page, but he makes up for a lack of elite speed or quickness with contact balance, vision and a versatile skillset. Stevenson's style breeds elusiveness with the ball in his hands, and he's proven to be a superior pass-catcher as well. Last season, he added a 69-421-1 line through the air in addition to 210 carries for 1,040 yards and five scores on the ground. Stevenson passed the eye-test as New England's undisputed RB1. Damien Harris left for Buffalo, but the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott in August. Stevenson's workload might not increase much this season with Elliott vying for touches, but he's still the lead back and first receiving option out of the backfield. As long as Elliott doesn't snipe too many goal-line carries, the explosive Stevenson is efficient enough to make up for a slight dip volume.
- Round 5, Pick 46 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 101 - 2022 Rank: 3
Last season was Burrow's second in a row leading the NFL in on-target percentage (76.7) while finishing second in completion percentage (68.3). However, there was a slight dip in these stats in 2022 compared to the previous year, which is perhaps surprising because Burrow decreased his rate of deep throws significantly. In 2022, Burrow threw 20-plus yards downfield on only 7.5 percent of his attempts, ranking him 30th in the league. Meanwhile, his rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage rose to 19.6 percent. Nevertheless, he finished as QB4 in fantasy with the help of five touchdown runs and 257 rushing yards. Burrow also remained efficient on deep throws, tying Geno Smith for the highest on-target rate on 20-plus-yard attempts (60.0 percent). The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line did not meet preseason expectations, which could explain Burrow's increase in dump-offs. However, the team has since signed standout left tackle Orlando Brown and moved Jonah Williams to right tackle. Burrow's top three wide receivers, including Ja'marr Chase, are still on the team, and Irv Smith is replacing Hayden Hurst at tight end. Burrow's efficiency could improve, and even with some expected regression in his rushing touchdowns he stands a decent chance to remain in the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.
- Round 6, Pick 55 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 121 - 2022 Rank: 282
Pitts took a big step back between his rookie year in 2021 and his sophomore campaign in 2022. Before suffering a knee injury in his 11th game, he had scored twice while averaging 35.6 yards per game. Pitts had two solid games with 80 and 87 yards but was held under 30 yards seven times. Although Pitts didn't do much with his chances, he at least was targeted between five and nine times in each of his last five games. He remained the focal point of a low-volume passing game. Going into 2023, we're not questioning Pitts' talent. He's still one of the most physically gifted tight ends to ever come out of the college ranks, and it's highly likely he increases his production from last year. But if the offense is still run-heavy and sophomore WR Drake London is also handling a large target share, Pitts might not put up huge numbers even if he performs better. A shaky QB situation adds to the concern, with second-year pro Desmond Ridder having averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt in four games as a rookie last year.
- Round 7, Pick 66 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 73 - 2022 Rank: 141
Pacheco's rookie season was a smashing success, and one the former Rutgers standout could potentially build on in his second NFL season. Pacheco's hard-charging, high-speed approach as a runner between the tackles makes him difficult for defenses to handle as they more so concern themselves with Patrick Mahomes, so there's not much reason to fear regression from Pacheco's average of 4.9 yards per carry from 2022. Pacheco has the speed to score from long range, yet in 2022 he had only three carries over 20 yards and none over 40 - both of those numbers would be good bets to rise in 2023. There's also room for growth in Pacheco's pass-catching production. The Chiefs increased his route-running workload as the season progressed, and Pacheco was occasionally effective as a receiver in his Rutgers days. Jerick McKinnon is still around to poach passing-down snaps if Pacheco slips up, and former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire can't be written off entirely either, but Pacheco has the clear lead in this backfield and plenty of momentum behind him.
- Round 8, Pick 75 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 76 - 2022 Rank: 101
Pickens, a 2022 second-round pick, had a sluggish and injury-ridden conclusion to his time at Georgia on account of an ACL tear suffered during spring practices in 2021. He recovered during his rookie season with the Steelers, fetching 52 receptions for 801 yards and four touchdowns. He made several remarkable catches and showed a knack for snagging contested ones, yet struggled with obtaining separation from cornerbacks. As a result, he drew only 84 targets in 17 games despite playing 882 snaps. At 6-foot-3, with 4.47 speed and strong hands, Pickens doesn't necessarily need to be a great route-runner to thrive. He does figure to make at least small steps forward in that regard, and he enters Year 2 locked in alongside Diontae Johnson and TE Pat Freiermuth as the main targets for QB Kenny Pickett. As bad as Pickett's overall numbers were last season, he showed progress throughout the year and figures to benefit from the Steelers' sizable offseason investment in blocking. There's also the matter of Johnson finishing with no TDs and fewer than 900 yards on nearly 150 targets last year, which would seem to point toward other players -- namely Pickens and Freiermuth -- taking on more of the team's receiving volume this season.
- Round 9, Pick 86 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 229
When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.
- Round 10, Pick 95 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 100 - 2022 Rank: 103
Dillon has seen his yards per carry go down each season, and his 4.1 was more than a yard worse than his rookie season. He also saw his total yardage fall by 150 yards although he did post a career high by scoring seven touchdowns. He's not very good at breaking tackles, as he's in the 17th percentile, but he did turn that into the 67th percentile in yards after contact. Although his workload was limited in 2022, while Aaron Jones was dealing with nagging injuries, Dillon saw his workload increase down the stretch. He was rarely used as a receiver catching just 15 passes over his last 11 games. It would appear that Jones will have the leg up going into the season, which would make Dillon more of a reserve player. Last year he was being aggressively drafted as having standalone value. Unless Green Bay changes its approach, expect closer to a repeat of Dillon's usage and production from last year.
- Round 11, Pick 106 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 119 - 2022 Rank: 104
Taken in the third round out of Memphis in 2020, Gibson found himself falling out of favor with former offensive coordinator Scott Turner last year and was reduced to primarily a passing-down role despite having rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2021. While he's an outstanding athlete with great speed and good receiving skills, Gibson's instincts as a runner have never really developed, and he lost early-down touches to rookie Brian Robinson. Robinson was unimpressive though, and Turner was replaced by former Kansas City coordinator Eric Bieniemy in the offseason. While Gibson's profile more closely resembles the kind of backs who thrived in the scheme Bieniemy brings with him, 2023 sixth-round pick Chris Rodriguez is also a legitimate threat to claim the starting job, which would once again relegate Gibson to passing-down and change-of-pace work.
DEF - Round 12, Pick 115 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 222 - 2022 Rank: 224
It's a major setback that the Broncos lost 2022 defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero in a lateral move to the Panthers, because Evero authored one of the best defensive coordinator showings of the past 10 years or so by making the Broncos defense one of the best in the league last year. Even with the offense hanging them out to dry every single week, the Broncos played stingy coverage and found ways to routinely stump opposing quarterbacks. Evero's replacement isn't a bad one. Vance Joseph has done solid defensive work in the past and was one of the few things holding the Kliff Kingsbury Cardinals together the last few years, but anyone would be hard-pressed to match Evero's excellent work. The Broncos run defense in particular looks dubious, but the pass rush and coverage personnel could be quite good. The Broncos have three capable edge rushers between Randy Gregory, Baron Browning and Frank Clark, while Patrick Surtain, K'Waun Williams, Damarri Mathis and Riley Moss could prove to be one of the better four-deep cornerback rotations in the league.
- Round 13, Pick 126 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 106 - 2022 Rank: 106
There's always concern about sustainability when a running back flashes in a small sample. But Allgeier definitely made the most of his opportunities as a rookie last year. The fifth-round pick averaged 4.9 yards per carry while ranking in the 92nd percentile for broken-tackle rate and 87th percentile for yards after contact. The 220-pound back had six runs of at least 20 yards (with three of those going over 40 yards) on 210 total carries. And his role increased as the season wound down. His four highest-usage games came in the last four weeks of the year, and he averaged 5.5 yards per carry in that stretch. Only one of those games came against a bad run defense, and he also caught six of seven targets for 52 yards during that span. Despite the impressive rookie year, Atlanta drafted RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall in April, leaving Allgeier without much of a fantasy ceiling unless his new teammates miss time.
- Round 14, Pick 135 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 159 - 2022 Rank: 739
Beckham missed all last season to rehab his ACL tear from the previous year's Super Bowl, waiting until April before signing a one-year deal with Baltimore worth $15 million, mostly guaranteed. It's a surprisingly large number for a wideout four years removed from this last 1,000-yard season, and he'll even have the chance to earn an additional $3 million in incentives. Beckham, 30, is a big part of Baltimore's passing-game makeover under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, whose brief tenure with the team has also been marked by QB Lamar Jackson signing an extension and the front office using a first-round pick on WR Zay Flowers. While both Jackson and Beckham seem happy, fantasy managers should be wary of Beckham's injury history and decrease in production. Even if he returns to form and stays healthy, he'll have sturdy competition for targets in what figures to be a balanced offense. In addition to Flowers and Beckham, the Ravens have 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman coming back from a foot injury and TE Mark Andrews looming as an annual threat to lead the team in targets. Beckham might help the Ravens more than he helps fantasy teams.
- Round 15, Pick 146 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 225 - 2022 Rank: 242
Dicker faced a tough competition against Dustin Hopkins for the chance to kick for the Chargers in 2023. Dicker was the incumbent, however, and ended up winning the job this August. Dicker isn't just any incumbent, moreover - he made all 24 of his extra point attempts and all but one of his 22 field goal attempts in 2022. The one field goal Dicker missed highlights his potential vulnerability, however; it was the only field goal he attempted from 50-plus yards.
- Round 16, Pick 155 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 134 - 2022 Rank: 153
Johnson was a converted wide receiver when entering the NFL three years ago. Although some fantasy players were excited about his potential, he needed time to fully make the transition. Last year, he finally had an opportunity, and he took advantage of it. He turned 65 targets into a 500-yard season with seven touchdowns. Although his seasonal numbers weren't special, Johnson was a high-floor player for much of the year. He posted at least 40 yards eight times over 16 games. He was a regular visitor to the end zone in Weeks 7-15, when he scored all of his touchdowns for the season in a seven-game span. He also proved to be a big-play producer, as eight of his 42 catches resulted in gains of at least 20 yards. With Derek Carr under center and likely dealing with protection issues, Johnson may directly benefit from the QB's need to get the ball out quickly. Johnson has the potential to finish as a top-12 TE.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
