In a draft that left fans scratching their heads, the Iced Dog team managed to turn a potentially decent lineup into a recipe for disaster. With a draft grade of D-, it's safe to say that their strategy left much to be desired. Projected to finish 9th in the NFC CHAMPIONS league, they'll be lucky to escape the bottom of the standings. Their projected record of 3-11-0 is about as promising as a snowball's chance in a heatwave.
One of the highlights (or lowlights, depending on how you look at it) of Iced Dog's draft was their obsession with wide receivers. While the league average for WRs drafted is 5.7, this team decided to stockpile a whopping 8 of them. Perhaps they were hoping to set a new record for most WRs on a fantasy roster, but it's hard to see how that will translate into success on the field. It's clear that the Iced Dog team has a knack for making questionable decisions, as evidenced by their best and worst picks. They managed to reach for Marquise Brown at 72, well above his ADP of 99, while also snatching up Mike Evans at 92, just slightly ahead of his ADP of 86. It's almost impressive how they managed to miss the mark on both ends of the spectrum.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 9 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 6 - 2022 Rank: 17
Diggs' couldn't have asked for a better career development than being traded to Buffalo back in 2020, as each of his three seasons with the Bills resulted in more receiving yards and more catches than any of his five years in Minnesota. Heading into his age-30 season, Diggs is coming off three straight Pro Bowls and a 2022 campaign that saw him set a new career-high TD mark with 11 scores, including three in Week 2 alone. As the clear No. 1 target for Josh Allen, Diggs has averaged 112.7 catches for 1,396.3 yards and 9.7 touchdowns per season in his time with the Bills, solidifying himself as one of the few true alpha wideouts in the league. First-round rookie TE Dalton Kincaid a crowded cast of complementary options, but none of Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir or Dawson Knox are a true threat to Diggs' target share. As he approaches his age-30 season, remember that Diggs will some day begin to slow down. But he hasn't shown any signs of that yet. For now, the veteran is attached to an elite quarterback and established as the unquestioned No. 1 option amid his offense.
- Round 2, Pick 12 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 4 - 2022 Rank: 36
Pollard finally emerged from Ezekiel Elliott's shadow in 2022. The Memphis product turned a career-high workload into career-best volume numbers without losing any efficiency, as Pollard topped 5.0 yards per carry for the third time in four NFL seasons while delivering his best yards per catch average to date at 9.5. The Cowboys were also more willing to use Pollard in the red zone, resulting in 12 total touchdowns after he had only 10 in his first three years combined. The breakout performance, along with salary cap concerns, finally convinced Dallas to move on from a declining Elliott, but that doesn't necessarily mean Pollard's role has room to grow further as his thin frame may not be able to handle much more than last season's 233 touches. Then again, Zeke's 231 carries will have to go somewhere. The team did add Ronald Jones in the offseason, and Malik Davis looked capable enough as a rookie last year, but Pollard will head into 2023 as the clear top option in the backfield after getting the franchise tag from the club to keep him from reaching free agency.
- Round 3, Pick 29 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 26 - 2022 Rank: 43
During the offseason, Mixon had some peculiar incidents off the field that raised concerns about potential legal or NFL penalties, though it's not clear exactly what that might look like. Assuming he remains on the Bengals and is not suspended, Mixon could be a valuable player for fantasy, as has been the case throughout most of his career. Despite not being particularly explosive, Mixon should get a lot of touches. Former backup Samaje Perine left for Denver in free agency, with no new veteran or highly drafted player to replace him. Mixon caught 102 passes over the past two seasons even though Perine took a lot of the passing-down work; Mixon even had career-best totals of 75 targets, 60 catches, and 441 receiving yards in just 14 games last year. While he has only had one season with multiple rushes of over 40 yards and an average of better than 4.1 yards per carry (in 2018), consistent volume in an offense that scores a lot of points is usually good for fantasy, and an upgrade in blocking with the addition of 345-pound OT Orlando Brown could also benefit Mixon.
- Round 4, Pick 32 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 40 - 2022 Rank: 723
Prior to sitting out most of the 2021 season to address mental health issues and subsequently being suspended for the 2022 campaign due to gambling, Ridley had established himself as an elite wide receiver. In his last full season, Ridley posted 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns with the Falcons. He'll likely take some time to get back up to game speed after the extended layoff, but Ridley has the skills to become the favorite target for rising star quarterback Trevor Lawrence in a Jacksonville passing game that also features WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, as well as TE Evan Engram. The 28-year-old Ridley should still be in his physical prime, but returning to elite form after an extended layoff isn't easy. For instance, former standout RB Le'Veon Bell was never the same after sitting out the 2018 season due to a contract dispute.
- Round 5, Pick 49 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 74 - 2022 Rank: 115
Starting his 2022 season in Week 7 after a suspension to start the year, Hopkins came out on fire the first few games. He then tailed off the rest of the way. Of course, the Cardinals did lose Kyler Murray in December to a knee injury, so the quarterback play was not good. However, Hopkins posted just a 14th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But with him seeing 10.6 targets per game, his production was always going to be solid. Aside from the suspension, he missed two games due to injury at the end of the season, on top of missing six games in 2021. Prior to those injuries, he only missed two games in his first eight seasons. Going into his age-31 season, we have to begin to wonder whether the durability issues have to do with him aging. The Titans are betting against it, as they signed Hopkins to a two-year contract in July after the Cardinals released him earlier in the offseason. The veteran wideout now joins an offense that's consistently prioritized the run under coach Mike Vrabel, but Hopkins at least won't have much competition for targets apart from 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks. The two wide receivers and RB Derrick Henry figure to account for a huge portion of Tennessee's offense.
- Round 6, Pick 52 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 69 - 2022 Rank: 15
Fields had the second-best rushing season ever for a quarterback, and the Bears really didn't turn him loose until just before mid season. Durability down the stretch became a concern, as he injured his shoulder. Fields lacked legitimate receiving weapons last season. As a result, it was very difficult for the passing game to have any consistency. There was a short period of time after the coaching staff opened up the offense in which he had both Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet, and they had moderate success during that time. But Fields threw for over 190 yards just twice, with 254 being his highest mark of the season. However, he did throw touchdown passes in 11 of his last 13 games. With the team adding DJ Moore at receiver, Fields now goes into 2023 with a legitimate arsenal of weapons. If he's even passable as a thrower, this offense can quickly make a massive jump forward. And as long as Fields has his rushing ability, he'll be a very high-floor fantasy option. Improved passing production could make him elite.
- Round 7, Pick 69 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 99 - 2022 Rank: 86
Last season, Johnson set a standard for high-volume, low-efficiency receiving, catching 86 passes for 882 yards and nary a touchdown on 147 targets. Even on a team with poor quarterback play, such a performance raises concerns about his target workload moving forward. That's doubly true given that Pittsburgh's second- and third-most targeted players, WR George Pickens and TE Pat Freiermuth, both managed above-average numbers for pass-pass efficiency. Pickens and Freiermuth also happen to be younger than Johnson, both coming from the second round in recent drafts. On the other hand, Johnson is only two years removed from putting up 1,161 receiving yards and eight TDs -- albeit on 169 targets -- and he's still one of the better receivers in the league when it comes to lateral agility and elusiveness. The drawbacks, of course, are numerous, as he's struggled with drops and is neither big (5-10, 183) nor fast (4.53 40-yard dash) by NFL standards. Johnson is locked in for a starting job and lofty snap counts after the Steelers settled for a post-prime Allen Robinson as their "big" offseason addition to the WR room, but there's major risk of a step back when it comes to target volume. The efficiency almost has to improve, especially if the Pittsburgh offense takes a step forward in QB Kenny Pickett's second pro season.
- Round 8, Pick 72 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 102 - 2022 Rank: 116
Brown is at his best when he's used as a downfield target, however he had a career low 6.6 yards per target and 10.6 yards per reception with the Cardinals last year. It didn't help that Kyler Murray missed the end of the season with a knee injury, but regardless, this was far from a big play offense last year. There's also concern that Murray may not be ready to start the season due to his injury. Brown did miss Weeks 7 through 11 with an injury last year, but he had been coming on just before then. He posted at least 68 yards in each of the five games leading up to week 11. And during that stretch, he averaged 11.6 targets with no fewer than nine in any game. but once he returned, and specially due to the quarterback play, he never surpassed 61 yards the rest of the way. If Murray was going to be a full go for the season, Brown's fantasy value would be much higher. but if Murray misses time, the drop off in quarterback play is so significant that it hurts Brown's fantasy value.
- Round 9, Pick 89 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 94 - 2022 Rank: 174
Herbert was used sparingly during the first two years of his career. Despite significantly out-producing teammate David Montgomery on a yards-per-carry basis, he had just 129 rushing attempts last year. His 5.7 yards per carry was earned on a 90th percentile broken tackle rate and 94th percentile yards after contact. Despite playing in nine games in which he had 10 or fewer carries, he still ended up with more than 50 rushing yards in seven games. He was very seldom used as a receiver. However, that may have much to do with Montgomery having been a strong receiver for the team. After the team added D'Onta Foreman in free agency and Roschon Johnson in the fourth round of the draft, Herbert's role is uncertain. It would seem that at best, he'll be an early-down change of pace along with work on receiving downs. The worst-case scenario would have him seeing a handful of touches each week. A reasonable expectation is that he'll see 5-10 carries and 1-4 targets in most games.
- Round 10, Pick 92 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 55 - 2022 Rank: 45
Evans is coming off an odd season. The numbers ended up where they needed to be, as his 1,124 receiving yards were his most since 2019. In addition, his 77 receptions and 127 targets were his most since 2018. With touchdowns being unpredictable, the fact he scored six, which was his fewest since 2017, was understandable. From a week-to-week standpoint, his performance was frustrating. He had eight games with two-to-four receptions. And over his last eight games, he surpassed 60 yards twice. And he really had just two big games all year, though one of those was in Week 17, and it may have helped win leagues, as he surpassed 200 yards with three TDs. With Tom Brady gone and Baker Mayfield in, that may not be optimal. But having shown that he hasn't slowed down entering his age-30 season, if he gets reasonable QB play, he should have a chance for a top-20 season.
- Round 11, Pick 109 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 90 - 2022 Rank: 139
The Browns' displayed immense confidence in Njoku last offseason when they gave him a franchise tag and then signed him to a four-year extension. It was a bit surprising on the heels of back-to-back years with modest receiving production while sharing snaps with fellow tight end Austin Hooper. But then with Hooper moving to Tennessee last year, Njoku took over a three-down role and was on pace for career highs in nearly every significant receiving category before lower-body injuries cost him three full games and parts of two others in the middle of the year. Njoku nonetheless managed personal bests for receptions (58) and catch rate (72.5 percent) and fell only 11 yards shy (628) of his 2018 total. Njoku turns 27 this summer - he's young for a seventh-year pro - and should have a similarly crucial role in the Browns offense, creating upside for big-time production if Deshaun Watson gets back to his Houston level of play at QB. There's more competition for targets after the Browns added WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman and TE Jordan Akins, but the new additions won't necessarily threaten Njoku's standing as a three-down tight end who rarely leaves the field. A more comfortable Watson could see Njoku score more than last year's four touchdowns.
- Round 12, Pick 112 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 124 - 2022 Rank: 336
As much as it's fair to find Moore's 2022 rookie season disappointing, it would be harsh to describe it as a failure. The Chiefs run a sophisticated offense and went into 2022 with plenty of veteran wide receiver depth, so there was never much realistic room for Moore to draw usage as a rookie. Moore was a slot specialist out of the MAC, not to mention an underclassman, so it's to be expected that he couldn't reliably earn slot snaps over the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Smith-Schuster and Hardman are no longer on the team, moreover, so there's less slot competition for Moore going into 2023. Valdes-Scantling can only draw so many targets and Kadarius Toney has seen persistent injury issues in the NFL, so there's a good chance that the Chiefs lean on Moore for a meaningful workload behind Travis Kelce. Moore just needs to polish his game enough to hold off free-agent pickup Richie James, a lesser talent than Moore but one good enough to steal slot snaps if Moore struggles.
- Round 13, Pick 129 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2601 - 2022 Rank: 25
The Rodgers era in Green Bay came to a less-than-ceremonious end, but following in the footsteps of Brett Favre before him, the future HOFer stays wearing green by moving on to the Jets. The 39-year-old didn't come cheap, costing New York a handful of early picks, but that will be unquestionably worth the investment if he can truly stabilize a plus roster that was held down last season by unconscionably poor QB play. There is a question of how much Rodgers has left in the tank, though, as his 12 interceptions in 2022 were the most he'd thrown since 2008, his first year as a starter, and just one off totaling his INT mark for the previous three seasons combined. His 3,695 were likewise a career-low mark for a full season. Much can be blamed on Rodgers' lack of playmakers in Green Bay, but it's not as though his arrival in New York comes without any concerns. The Jets' roster will put Rodgers in prime position to avoid another slump, at least, with Garret Wilson headlining an improved receiving corps. Wilson's 1,103 receiving yards as a rookie came in spite of league-worst QB play, while Allen Lazard joined Rodgers as a free agent, allowing speedster Mecole Hardman to slot in as the No. 3 man. If Breece Hall can get back to full speed from his ACL tear, Rodgers will command a plus grouping of offensive skill players, which when paired with Robert Saleh's defense should set the stage for a long awaited playoff run in New York.
- Round 14, Pick 132 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 118 - 2022 Rank: 752
While it remains to be seen how quickly and how well Johnston adapts to the NFL, the first-round pick out of TCU has a lot of positive indicators in his prospect profile, and the Chargers have an interest in making him look good after selecting him 21st overall in the 2023 draft. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both target hogs, and Joshua Palmer can't be entirely written off after drawing 107 targets in 2022, but Johnston offers something new and exciting that the Chargers badly lacked previously: a convincing downfield threat. Williams and especially Allen are less than threatening downfield, which is a waste when you consider how great of a downfield passer Justin Herbert is. Drafting Johnston shows the Chargers considered it a priority to unlock the downfield part of Herbert's game. Since Johnston runs different routes than Allen and Williams it should also mean the three can coexist as fantasy assets. Johnston isn't eligible for the kind of target rates Allen and Williams are likely to draw, but as the Chargers' main home run threat it's possible that he makes up for the target deficit by providing a better yards-per-target and touchdown rate.
DEF - Round 15, Pick 149 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 208 - 2022 Rank: 199
The one good stat from the Saints defense last year was that they allowed the seventh-fewest points in the league. They registered the fifth-most sacks but the third-fewest interceptions. This should remain a 'good enough' defense from an NFL standpoint, as they are decent in all phases. The Saints will look to retain their solid pass rush after adding a pair of top-40 picks drafted to bolster the line. If they hit, the whole defense could see a big jump. Aside from Marshon Lattimore, the CB room is hit or miss. They should be fine against limited offenses, but they'll likely have issues when playing the better ones. Their ability to pressure the QB puts them in the discussion as a top-10 fantasy defense.
- Round 16, Pick 152 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 236 - 2022 Rank: 117
After averaging 21 made field goals between 2019-2021, the Seahawks offense finally had a successful year. As a result, Myers connected on 34 field goals, which was the most he has had in any of his eight seasons. Although he's had a couple down years from an accuracy standpoint, Myers has made at least 91.7 percent of his field goals in three of the last five years. He just signed a four-year contract, so he has job security. And if the Seahawks continue their positive direction on offense, he should be a top-eight kicking option.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
