In a draft that can only be described as a dumpster fire, the Flash team managed to secure the illustrious title of 'D' grade. With a projected record of 3-11-0 and a projected finish of 13th, it's safe to say that Flash won't be striking fear into the hearts of their opponents anytime soon. Their projected points of 1519.15 might sound impressive, but when you consider that their schedule difficulty is the second toughest out of 14 teams, it's clear that Flash is in for a rough ride.
To add insult to injury, Flash will have to navigate through the treacherous waters of bye week 7 with not one, but two players on the sidelines. It's like they wanted to make things even more challenging for themselves. But hey, it's not all doom and gloom. Flash did manage to make one decent pick in the draft, snagging Breece Hall at 46, which was actually better than his ADP of 37. Unfortunately, that was overshadowed by their worst pick, George Pickens, who was drafted at 74 despite having an ADP of 92. And let's not forget the bold move of drafting three players from the same team. Because nothing says 'variety' like putting all your eggs in one basket, right? Looks like Flash is living up to their name by fizzling out before the season even begins.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 11 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 9 - 2022 Rank: 23
After spending the first three seasons of his career stuck in a run-focused Titans offense that didn't always take advantage of Brown's imposing physicality, the 2019 second-round pick got traded to the Eagles and was unleashed on the NFL. He shattered his career highs in both receiving volume and efficiency nearly across the board, and his presence alongside DeVonta Smith on the outside helped quarterback Jalen Hurts blossom into an MVP candidate. After a run to the Super Bowl, Philadelphia was able to avoid significant turnover on the offensive side of the ball, so there's little reason to expect Brown's usage to decline in 2023. On the other hand, there's little reason to expect it to increase either. Hurts' elite running ability puts a cap on the team's passing volume, and Brown still has to split looks with Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, although the team's other skill players didn't get used much as receivers last year. Brown will have to rely on big plays and red-zone targets to post elite numbers again, but he's more than capable of doing so.
- Round 2, Pick 18 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 11 - 2022 Rank: 33
The 17th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Lamb's numbers have climbed steadily through his first three seasons. He emerged as Dak Prescott's clear top option in 2022 after Amari Cooper was traded to the Browns. Lamb's production really took off last year once Prescott put a thumb injury behind him, and after the Cowboys' Week 9 bye, the wideout averaged nearly 90 yards a game through 11 regular-season and postseason contests while finding the end zone seven times. That breakthrough was more impressive considering the Oklahoma product was essentially a one-man show downfield for Dallas last year, as the front office never found an adequate replacement for Cooper, but that shouldn't be an issue in 2023. Lamb's supporting cast got a significant boost in the spring with the addition of Brandin Cooks, whose ability to stretch the field should open things up underneath on the routes where Lamb thrives. While it is hard to project Lamb's target volume to increase much beyond the 9.2 passes per game he saw in 2022, his efficiency might find another gear if Cooks can draw attention from defenders.
- Round 3, Pick 39 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 40 - 2022 Rank: 720
Prior to sitting out most of the 2021 season to address mental health issues and subsequently being suspended for the 2022 campaign due to gambling, Ridley had established himself as an elite wide receiver. In his last full season, Ridley posted 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns with the Falcons. He'll likely take some time to get back up to game speed after the extended layoff, but Ridley has the skills to become the favorite target for rising star quarterback Trevor Lawrence in a Jacksonville passing game that also features WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, as well as TE Evan Engram. The 28-year-old Ridley should still be in his physical prime, but returning to elite form after an extended layoff isn't easy. For instance, former standout RB Le'Veon Bell was never the same after sitting out the 2018 season due to a contract dispute.
- Round 4, Pick 46 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 25 - 2022 Rank: 169
Hall tore his ACL in Week 7 last season just as he was emerging as a dominant workhorse RB, making the injury all the more frustrating. The 2022 second-round pick started slowly, with less than 50 rushing yards in his first three appearances, but the Jets finally shifted gears Week 4 and handed Hall the majority of backfield work. Hall hopes to return by Week 1, and New York's offense looks primed to take a significant step forward in 2023 with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. But the Jets likely will take their time with Hall, especially after signing Dalvin Cook in August. Cook could start Week 1, and even when Hall returns could still steal touches as the No. 2. That said, if Hall returns to his pre-injury form and Rodgers indeed boosts the offense this season, Hall could even see an uptick in scoring opportunities.
- Round 5, Pick 67 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 70 - 2022 Rank: 72
Montgomery was serviceable, though not great during his four years in Chicago. He had less than 4.0 yards per carry in three of those years. Explosiveness is an issue. Last year, he was held to just two runs of 20 or more yards, which was the worst of his career. Just like in college, his broken tackle rate is excellent. He was in the 84th percentile in that category. However, he didn't do very much after getting defenders to miss. He ended up in the 50th percentile in yards after contact. He didn't reach 80 yards rushing in a game after Week 2, though he didn't see more than 17 carries in any game. He did see his receiving usage increase toward the end of the season. He was targeted three-to-five times in each of his last six games before a meaningless Week 18 contest. Although not the same physical presence, Montgomery should slot into much of the role that Jamaal Williams had with Detroit last year. The problem is that Montgomery is better as a pass catcher than a runner. And that's where Jahmyr Gibbs is likely superior. Also, Montgomery may not be at the same level of goal line back compared to Williams. It's a confusing situation, but the upside is a solid RB2 but there are many paths to him being just a flex option.
- Round 6, Pick 74 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 76 - 2022 Rank: 137
Pickens, a 2022 second-round pick, had a sluggish and injury-ridden conclusion to his time at Georgia on account of an ACL tear suffered during spring practices in 2021. He recovered during his rookie season with the Steelers, fetching 52 receptions for 801 yards and four touchdowns. He made several remarkable catches and showed a knack for snagging contested ones, yet struggled with obtaining separation from cornerbacks. As a result, he drew only 84 targets in 17 games despite playing 882 snaps. At 6-foot-3, with 4.47 speed and strong hands, Pickens doesn't necessarily need to be a great route-runner to thrive. He does figure to make at least small steps forward in that regard, and he enters Year 2 locked in alongside Diontae Johnson and TE Pat Freiermuth as the main targets for QB Kenny Pickett. As bad as Pickett's overall numbers were last season, he showed progress throughout the year and figures to benefit from the Steelers' sizable offseason investment in blocking. There's also the matter of Johnson finishing with no TDs and fewer than 900 yards on nearly 150 targets last year, which would seem to point toward other players -- namely Pickens and Freiermuth -- taking on more of the team's receiving volume this season.
- Round 7, Pick 95 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 105 - 2022 Rank: 16
Jones wound up as a top-10 fantasy quarterback last year thanks to his rushing production, as his passing totals remained flat under new coach Brian Daboll. He did improve his accuracy though and threw fewer interceptions, as Daboll largely removed the downfield pass from the playbook and had the 26-year-old dink and dunk to keep the chains moving. While Jones may not have the downfield accuracy to test secondaries consistently, he also didn't have a lot to work with as injuries decimated an already lackluster receiving corps. The Giants made some effort to address that in the offseason, notably adding tight end Darren Waller in a trade with the Raiders. Jones was given a four-year, $160 million contract in March, which is a pretty clear sign Daboll think there's more untapped potential in the 2019 first-round pick, but expecting him to turn into the next Josh Allen is probably asking too much. As a positive, the resolution of Saquon Barkley's contract status (a one year deal) should maintain balance in the Giants' attack. Barkley's presence makes it difficult to for defenses to also spy on Jones' scrambling opportunities.
- Round 8, Pick 102 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 100 - 2022 Rank: 91
Dillon has seen his yards per carry go down each season, and his 4.1 was more than a yard worse than his rookie season. He also saw his total yardage fall by 150 yards although he did post a career high by scoring seven touchdowns. He's not very good at breaking tackles, as he's in the 17th percentile, but he did turn that into the 67th percentile in yards after contact. Although his workload was limited in 2022, while Aaron Jones was dealing with nagging injuries, Dillon saw his workload increase down the stretch. He was rarely used as a receiver catching just 15 passes over his last 11 games. It would appear that Jones will have the leg up going into the season, which would make Dillon more of a reserve player. Last year he was being aggressively drafted as having standalone value. Unless Green Bay changes its approach, expect closer to a repeat of Dillon's usage and production from last year.
- Round 9, Pick 123 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 156 - 2022 Rank: 135
Lazard joins quarterback Aaron Rodgers in moving from Green Bay to New York this season. Garrett Wilson is the clear No. 1 option for the passing game, and while no obvious No. 2 wideout stands out, Lazard has the likely inside track following the abrupt retirement of Corey Davis in August. Mecole Hardman will give him his biggest challenge with only Randall Cobb among the top-4 WR. Lazard is a uniquely superior blocker among the Jets' receiving corps, which should guarantee him a sizeable weekly snap share. His connection with Rodgers also shouldn't be overlooked as a mere narrative, as his 6-foot-5 frame and 14 touchdowns the last two seasons are proof that he's trusted by his QB in the red zone. Lazard's four-year, $44 million contract is also incentive to get him involved early and often.
- Round 10, Pick 130 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 167 - 2022 Rank: 82
McKinnon's ability to improvise with Patrick Mahomes while phasing out of blitz pickup or play-action makes him difficult for defenses to keep track of, especially the longer a play goes on. The Chiefs offensive line is excellent and Mahomes might be the most dangerous improviser at quarterback the league has ever seen, so Mahomes extends plays regularly enough for McKinnon to make a fantasy impact even as a backup. It's not clear how locked in McKinnon might be relative to his 2022 workload - Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are both capable of poaching passing-down snaps - but in 2022 McKinnon just about had the Kansas City running back receiving production to himself. As much as it seems unlikely that McKinnon would play more than the 497 snaps he did in 2022, it's also not obvious why the Chiefs would scale it back too much. With that said, if McKinnon is to be a useful fantasy asset in 2023 then he'll likely need to make it happen as a receiver, so he can't afford to lose any passing-down snaps.
- Round 11, Pick 151 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 126 - 2022 Rank: 775
The Titans picked Spears in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft after an outstanding college career at Tulane that included 2,910 yards and 31 touchdowns on 427 carries (6.8 YPC) spread in 33 games. Elite production in the American Athletic Conference is far from a guarantee of success against NFL-level competition, especially since Spears' athletic profile is nothing special; he has 4.54 speed in a 5-foot-11, 201-pound frame. He may not be able to handle heavy workloads consistently at that size, but Spears probably won't get a chance to find that out for a few years, as workhorse Derrick Henry is firmly entrenched atop Tennessee's RB depth chart. Spears is the favorite to snag the primary backup role and begin his career operating in a change-of-pace capacity behind Henry. His main competition for the No. 2 spot is 2022 fourth-round pick Hassan Haskins, who had just 93 rushing yards as a rookie and was recently arrested following a domestic dispute.
- Round 12, Pick 158 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 86 - 2022 Rank: 249
Gainwell gave a glimpse of what he might be able to accomplish in a bigger role in last season's wild-card win over the Giants, erupting for 112 rushing yards and a touchdown, but that could well end up being the high point of his Eagles tenure. A fifth-round pick in 2021, Gainwell's a valuable depth option in Nick Siranni's scheme, but his biggest asset is receiving skills that often go under-utilized in an offense that would rather have Jalen Hurts keep the ball himself than dump it off to a running back. Miles Sanders, another back who didn't get the workload his talent may have warranted, left for Carolina in the offseason, but Gainwell's shot at rising up the depth chart got thwarted when the team signed Rashaad Penny in free agency and traded for D'Andre Swift. The two imports have long injury histories though, so Gainwell might yet get a look as the Eagles' starter if both Swift and Penny happen to be on the shelf at the same time.
- Round 13, Pick 179 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 236 - 2022 Rank: 70
After averaging 21 made field goals between 2019-2021, the Seahawks offense finally had a successful year. As a result, Myers connected on 34 field goals, which was the most he has had in any of his eight seasons. Although he's had a couple down years from an accuracy standpoint, Myers has made at least 91.7 percent of his field goals in three of the last five years. He just signed a four-year contract, so he has job security. And if the Seahawks continue their positive direction on offense, he should be a top-eight kicking option.
DEF - Round 14, Pick 186 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 245 - 2022 Rank: 94
Jacksonville was a better fantasy defense than real-life defense in 2022 by virtue of scoring four defensive touchdowns, which was third-most in the league. Otherwise, the Jaguars had 35 sacks (seventh-fewest) and allowed 353.3 scrimmage yards per game (ninth-most). This unit's largely returning its key personnel from last season, so the most obvious avenue for improvement is the potential evolution of 2022 first overall pick Travon Walker, who had just 3.5 sacks as a rookie. However, Jacksonville will likely face a far tougher schedule in 2023. Not only did the Jaguars win the AFC South last year after drafting first overall the previous two seasons, but two of the three other teams in their division (the Texans and Colts) could be much improved on offense after taking QBs with top-five draft picks.
- Round 15, Pick 207 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 206 - 2022 Rank: 226
Only seven tight ends have recorded at least 550 yards in each of the past two seasons, and Conklin quietly counts himself among that mark. In similarly under-the-radar fashion, he finished second on the Jets in targets (87), catches (58), receiving yards (552) and TDs (three) last year, behind Garrett Wilson in each category. New York's new-look offense brings a more crowded receiving corps to join Aaron Rodgers, as Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman both resemble new competition for targets, but this is also a passing game that looks primed to take a significant step forward as a whole. Conklin remains likely to operate as the team's No. 1 tight end, ahead of C.J. Uzomah and 2022 third-round pick Jeremy Ruckert. It remains to be seen whether that role can lead to an uptick in receiving utility.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
