In the icy depths of the Rams Fans United League draft, Indrid Cold emerged from the shadows with a draft grade of B. Positioned at the 13th spot in the draft order, they navigated the treacherous waters of 15 rounds to assemble a team that is projected to finish 4th with a record of 10-4-0. With a projected point total of 1580.9, they are ready to send shivers down the spines of their opponents.
Indrid Cold's draft strategy had its highs and lows. Their best pick came at 125, where they snatched up Michael Thomas, who was projected to be drafted at 114. A true steal in the draft, this player is set to achieve great things for the team. However, not all picks were as chillingly successful. Their worst pick came at 69, where they reached for Jahan Dotson, who had an ADP of 97. Hopefully, this player can defy expectations and prove their worth on the field. With three players on bye week 13, Indrid Cold might need to conjure up some magic to secure a victory. All in all, Indrid Cold's draft performance is as enigmatic as their team name, leaving us wondering what mysteries await them on the fantasy gridiron.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 13 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 4 - 2022 Rank: 29
Pollard finally emerged from Ezekiel Elliott's shadow in 2022. The Memphis product turned a career-high workload into career-best volume numbers without losing any efficiency, as Pollard topped 5.0 yards per carry for the third time in four NFL seasons while delivering his best yards per catch average to date at 9.5. The Cowboys were also more willing to use Pollard in the red zone, resulting in 12 total touchdowns after he had only 10 in his first three years combined. The breakout performance, along with salary cap concerns, finally convinced Dallas to move on from a declining Elliott, but that doesn't necessarily mean Pollard's role has room to grow further as his thin frame may not be able to handle much more than last season's 233 touches. Then again, Zeke's 231 carries will have to go somewhere. The team did add Ronald Jones in the offseason, and Malik Davis looked capable enough as a rookie last year, but Pollard will head into 2023 as the clear top option in the backfield after getting the franchise tag from the club to keep him from reaching free agency.
- Round 2, Pick 16 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 16 - 2022 Rank: 5
Not much went right for the Raiders in 2022, but Jacobs' season was one glaring exception. After a merely 'good' first three years to his NFL career, Jacobs went nuts and matched or set career highs in all of carries (340), rushing yardage (1,653), rushing touchdowns (12), yards per carry (4.9), targets (64) and receiving yardage (400) in 2022. Jacobs also logged a career high in snaps, his 783 in 2022 blazing past the previous high of 616 (2020). As much as coach Josh McDaniels struggled to run the Raiders in general, there does seem to be a solid link between the arrival of McDaniels (and Davante Adams) and this new level of production from Jacobs. McDaniels seems to have found a collection of playcalls that allows the two threats to play off of each other, keeping defenses off balance despite knowing either Jacobs or Adams will get the ball on most plays.
- Round 3, Pick 41 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 43 - 2022 Rank: 22
Jackson's 2022 was cut short by a Week 13 knee injury, limiting him to just 12 games. If his 11 complete games were prorated to a full season, he would have recorded almost 3,500 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Despite his completion percentage (62.3) and yards per attempt (6.9) dropping compared to the previous few years, he still managed QB1-level fantasy production thanks to his exceptional running ability. Jackson's performance was hindered by arguably the worst wideout corps in the league, but the Ravens took steps to address this issue by signing Odell Beckham and then drafting Zay Flowers in the first round. A healthy season from Rashod Bateman, their 2021 first-round pick who missed six games with a Lisfranc injury, would also be significant. Tight end Mark Andrews is still the main target in the offense, with fellow TE Isaiah Likely providing an additional receiving threat. The most crucial change could be the switch in offensive scheme from Greg Roman's run-heavy playbook to a more pass-oriented one led by new OC Todd Monken. Jackson ended the uncertainty around his future by signing a five-year deal worth $135 million guaranteed in May. He is undoubtedly the best QB in the league when it comes to running, and a full season could see him reach 1,000 rushing yards even if he gets fewer designed carries under Monken.
- Round 4, Pick 44 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 54 - 2022 Rank: 265
Injuries put a damper on Waller's numbers over the last two seasons, but in the two years prior to that he established himself as one of the NFL's most dangerous tight ends. Only Travis Kelce had more receiving yards at the position in 2019 and 2020. Injuries weren't the only things that seemed to limit Waller's production in 2022 though. He took a back seat to Davante Adams in the Raiders' offense, and Waller had trouble finding a fit in Josh McDaniels' scheme. An offseason trade to the Giants gives Waller a fresh start. While he's arguably the most talented pass-catcher quarterback Daniel Jones has ever had to work with, Brian Daboll's scheme has even less of a track record of TE production than McDaniels' offense. Waller will turn 31 in September, and while he could return to elite status this season as Jones' top option, he'll also carry a lot of risk even if he manages to stay healthy.
- Round 5, Pick 69 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 95 - 2022 Rank: 177
Dotson came out of the gates firing as a rookie after being the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft, scoring four touchdowns in his first four NFL games, but a hamstring injury cut short his momentum for the next couple months. He found his groove again down the stretch, though, posting a 21-344-3 line from Week 13 on, and the Penn State product could be poised for a classic Year 2 breakout. While Terry McLaurin remains the Commanders' most reliable wideout, Dotson's speed and ability to make catches in traffic positions him as the better deep threat, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could take full advantage of those traits. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell also offers more upside than last year's starters, Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke, did. Dotson saw one more target than McLaurin over those final five games of 2022, and he has a reasonable chance of emerging as the team's No. 1 receiver this season.
- Round 6, Pick 72 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 67 - 2022 Rank: 364
Williams is racing to return to the field after his 2022 season cruelly ended with an ACL/LCL tear in Week 4, an injury that presumably led the Broncos to pursue Samaje Perine in free agency. Perine's contract is a modest one (two years, $7.5 million), so it's likely safe to assume that Broncos consider Perine a stopgap option until Williams is back to full strength. Once he's healthy Williams will likely be one of the main beneficiaries of the arrival of coach Sean Payton, who should prove to be a night-and-day improvement over the since-fired Nathaniel Hackett. Through 21 career games, Williams has run for 1,107 yards (4.4 YPC) and four touchdowns while adding 59 receptions for 392 yards and three touchdowns on 75 targets (78.7 percent catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). While those numbers don't jump off the page, they're pretty good, especially considering how bad the Denver offense was those two years. Perine should shift into a proper backup role once Williams' knee is ready to go, but it's tough to guess his specific timeline after Williams was a limited participant in May OTAs.
- Round 7, Pick 97 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 88 - 2022 Rank: 191
For a player with his physical gifts and consistent production, it's kind of remarkable that Cooks has never found a long-term home in the NFL. Since being selected in the first round in 2014, the speedster has played for four teams, and a March trade from the Texans has the Cowboys poised to be team No. 5. Through his travels, Cooks has topped 1,000 receiving yards six times in the last eight seasons, and the fact that he didn't reach that mark in Houston last year falls squarely on the shoulders of the erratic quarterback play. While he'll turn 30 in September, he still possesses the speed to force defenders back on their heels, and Dak Prescott should be the best QB he's worked with since he was Tom Brady's top option on the outside with the Patriots in 2017. CeeDee Lamb has that role in Dallas in 2023, but Cooks can still make an impact as the No. 2 wideout.
- Round 8, Pick 100 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 196 - 2022 Rank: 307
Few NFL players have as much upside intrigue as Toney, but it's also true that few NFL players are half as confusing. It's a given that Toney is a unique, maybe even one-of-a-kind threat when he has the ball, but his durability struggles and mercurial relationship with the Giants made it difficult to tell whether he has anything else to his game. To this point, Toney has never run a legitimate combination of routes, so while he certainly has the athleticism to be an all-around receiver it's not clear whether he'll ever develop the route-running acumen necessary to do so. Now 24, Toney has some but not much time to demonstrate skills growth before we have to stare down the possibility that he simply is what he already is. Even if Toney never improves a bit, though, he should still be a nightmarish after-the-catch threat as an underneath specialist for the Chiefs. The Chiefs want him to step up as their WR1, so if he makes the necessary improvements then the fantasy rewards could be enormous. Very little is truly guaranteed, though.
- Round 9, Pick 125 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 84 - 2022 Rank: 336
Thomas played just 10 games the last three seasons. And now he's entering his age-30 season. In each of the three games he played last year, he caught at least five passes, posted 49-65 yards and scored three times. He still showed he could run routes, but he was often catching the ball and going right down without producing yardage after the catch. Is it possible he regains health and moves back into a lead role? Yes. Is it something that the recent past has shown that it is a possibility? That's a hard "no." Regardless of how good Thomas looks, it's also possible that second-year receiver Chris Olave may have taken on the mantle as the Saints' top receiver. The later Thomas falls in drafts, the more the injury and risk ratios are reduced.
- Round 10, Pick 128 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 118 - 2022 Rank: 749
While it remains to be seen how quickly and how well Johnston adapts to the NFL, the first-round pick out of TCU has a lot of positive indicators in his prospect profile, and the Chargers have an interest in making him look good after selecting him 21st overall in the 2023 draft. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both target hogs, and Joshua Palmer can't be entirely written off after drawing 107 targets in 2022, but Johnston offers something new and exciting that the Chargers badly lacked previously: a convincing downfield threat. Williams and especially Allen are less than threatening downfield, which is a waste when you consider how great of a downfield passer Justin Herbert is. Drafting Johnston shows the Chargers considered it a priority to unlock the downfield part of Herbert's game. Since Johnston runs different routes than Allen and Williams it should also mean the three can coexist as fantasy assets. Johnston isn't eligible for the kind of target rates Allen and Williams are likely to draw, but as the Chargers' main home run threat it's possible that he makes up for the target deficit by providing a better yards-per-target and touchdown rate.
- Round 11, Pick 153 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 212 - 2022 Rank: 116
Though McPherson's second pro season did not quite match up to his 2021 debut, he confirmed he's one of the better kickers in the league. He converted 9 out of 14 tries from 40-49 yards and all five from beyond 50 yards, also tying for sixth in PAT attempts (44) and seventh in PAT conversions (40). If anyone is to challenge Baltimore's Justin Tucker for the fantasy kicking throne, the 2021 fifth-round pick from his own division just might be the player to do so. While McPherson hasn't been as reliable as Tucker from close range, McPherson has an outstanding record from 50-plus yards (14 for 16) and is attached to a Cincinnati offense that's been considerably better than Baltimore's the past couple years.
DEF - Round 12, Pick 156 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 164 - 2022 Rank: 127
Head coach Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich guided the Jets defense to a massive step forward in Year 2 of their regime. The unit finished fourth in points and yardage, an accomplishment facilitated in no small part by rookie fourth overall pick Sauce Gardner. 2019 third overall pick Quinnen Williams emerged with 28 QB hits and 12 sacks, and the addition of Chuck Clark to the secondary leaves room for improvement in 2023. Last season, of course, New York's defense couldn't make up for abysmal play on the offensive side of the ball, but the addition of QB Aaron Rodgers promises to stabilize things on that front. Barring regression at multiple positions, the Jets' defense looks primed to position the team for a playoff run, as long as the offense can take its promised step forward.
- Round 13, Pick 181 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 258 - 2022 Rank: 233
Hardman couldn't take advantage of Tyreek Hill's departure in his fourth season with the Chiefs last year, averaging less than 40 yards per game in the eight games he played. He'll once again get the advantage of playing with a future Hall of Fame quarterback in New York, though Aaron Rodger's substandard 2022 campaign could be reason for tampering expectations. The Jets' receiving corps is less crowded behind No. 1 Garrett Wilson after Corey Davis retired in August. Hardman is the only real speedster of the group, and his skillset doesn't significantly overlap with Allen Lazard, a more big-bodied chain mover. Tthe 25-year-old Hardman could well be a regular fixture in three-wide sets. The argument for Hardman as a post-hype sleeper isn't difficult, as long as he's indeed able to get healthy without setbacks, but fantasy may be fatigued enough for him to fall to the last round of drafts.
- Round 14, Pick 184 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 200 - 2022 Rank: 172
Osborn came alive late last season, showing upside for a bigger role this season. After averaging 23 receiving yards per game in his first 13 games with three touchdowns, Osborn had games of 157 and 117 yards in the last four weeks, averaging 87.5 yards per game and scoring twice. But increased targets is far from guaranteed after the Vikings used a first-round pick on WR Jordan Addison this spring, and Osborn likely will remain in the No. 3 role, even though the team moved on from Adam Thielen. Plus, tight end T.J. Hockenson could get more work after joining the team midseason last year. At 5-foot-11, 203, with 4.48 speed, Osborn could produce if given the chance. But he'll likely need an injury to Justin Jefferson or Addison for that to happen.
- Round 15, Pick 209 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 136 - 2022 Rank: 252
Henry's regression in his second season with the Patriots followed a trend set by the entire Mac Jones-led offense. After producing nine touchdowns in 2021, Henry scoring just twice in 2022 can be viewed as emblematic of New England's entire disappointing season. New offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien could spark some life into the passing game, though the fresh arrival Mike Gesicki could threaten Henry's domination of offensive snaps. On the other hand, Henry and Gesicki would make a dangerous combo in two-TE formations, and O'Brien is no stranger to scheming up 12-man personnel rotations. In all, Henry figures to remain a TD-dependent option for fantasy production, so his success will depend largely on Jones bouncing back after throwing just 14 scores last year.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
