In a draft that left fans all shook up, the Elvis team managed to secure a disappointing D- grade. With a projected record of 3-11-0, it seems like the Elvis squad will be singing the blues this season. Despite drafting in the 10th spot, they failed to make any moves that would have them dancing in the end zone.
While there were a few bright spots, such as nabbing George Kittle at pick 66, which was a steal considering their ADP of 46, the Elvis team stumbled with their worst pick of the night. Selecting Christian Watson at pick 47, a full 30 spots ahead of their ADP, left everyone in the league scratching their heads. It's safe to say that the Elvis team may need a little less conversation and a little more research next time around.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 10 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 5 - 2022 Rank: 750
One of the better RB prospects of the past decade, Robinson landed in Atlanta with the eighth overall pick after a dominant college career at Texas. At 215 pounds with 4.46 speed, the 21-year-old essentially is the prototype for his position. He even appears promising as a receiving threat, as his modest total of 60 receptions at Texas went for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. The spectacular efficiency hints at potential to add target volume in the NFL, though it might be more of a process than a Day 1 thing, especially given the likelihood of Atlanta again ranking near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. It's not often that a running back prospect projects for volume, efficiency and versatility to the extent that Robinson does. He does have decent competition for carries in Atlanta, but within the confines of a run-heavy offense and with the possibility of Cordarrelle Patterson being a cap casualty this summer. While 2022 fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier figures to retain some sort of role after running for 1,000 yards as a rookie, Robinson is on a different level of talent and shouldn't need long to establish himself as the lead back. At worst, the rookie figures to open the year seeing double-digit carries per week in a timeshare, with potential to make Allgeier obsolete (or close to it) as the year progresses.
- Round 2, Pick 19 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 26 - 2022 Rank: 44
During the offseason, Mixon had some peculiar incidents off the field that raised concerns about potential legal or NFL penalties, though it's not clear exactly what that might look like. Assuming he remains on the Bengals and is not suspended, Mixon could be a valuable player for fantasy, as has been the case throughout most of his career. Despite not being particularly explosive, Mixon should get a lot of touches. Former backup Samaje Perine left for Denver in free agency, with no new veteran or highly drafted player to replace him. Mixon caught 102 passes over the past two seasons even though Perine took a lot of the passing-down work; Mixon even had career-best totals of 75 targets, 60 catches, and 441 receiving yards in just 14 games last year. While he has only had one season with multiple rushes of over 40 yards and an average of better than 4.1 yards per carry (in 2018), consistent volume in an offense that scores a lot of points is usually good for fantasy, and an upgrade in blocking with the addition of 345-pound OT Orlando Brown could also benefit Mixon.
- Round 3, Pick 38 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 38 - 2022 Rank: 46
Cooper rebounded in 2022 after a slow finish to his three-and-a-half year tenure in Dallas. Despite playing most of the season with mediocre quarterback Jacoby Brissett, the veteran wideout reached career highs with nine touchdowns and 132 targets (tying his previous best), also recording 1,160 yards (his second most). Although Cooper has not quite lived up to his predraft hype as a potential high-end WR1, he has six 1,000-yard campaigns in nine years and has never scored fewer than five touchdowns in a season. Last year he actually had better numbers while playing with Brissett than he had with Deshaun Watson. Granted, four of Watson's six games were home contests in Cleveland during December/January, with wind being a factor in at least three of those. The Browns do have other proven offensive weapons in TE David Njoku and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, and offseason addition Elijah Moore has ample potential even after a disappointing 2022 in New York. The larger concern is that Watson did not perform at his usual level last year. If that continues into 2023, it'll be hard for Cooper to match his 2022 stats.
- Round 4, Pick 47 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 42 - 2022 Rank: 113
Watson dealt with a nagging injury to start last season and didn't really come on until the second half of the season. He had an incredible stretch of four games between weeks 10 and 13 when he posted 323 yards, 49 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He was still good down the stretch, posting between 46 and 49 yards in each of his last four games, though he didn't score during that span. His speed is difference making, but his route running is still questionable. The drop off from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love could be problematic for him. However, he should be the clear No. 1 receiver, so he should get targeted often. But he's difficult to predict because if he doesn't improve his route running, defenses already understand that he can get over the top, which will allow them to prepare for that. Those who believe he'll figure out the route running, should project him aggressively, but that's not a guarantee to happen. Those who aren't sold on Watson building his versatility may require a more conservative projection than many analysts who are focusing solely on the upside.
- Round 5, Pick 66 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 62 - 2022 Rank: 81
Kittle's receptions and yardage for 2022 were well below the numbers he put up in prior seasons. But the big difference last season was his nose for the end zone. After scoring 20 touchdowns over the first five seasons of his career, he scored 11 TD's last year. As usual, he was very volatile. He had seven games with single digit PPR points. He also went over 20 points on four occasions. When drafting Kittle, fantasy managers simply can't take him out of their lineup. When he appears to be in a slump, the magic happens. For instance, after three straight games with less than 40 yards receiving, he erupted for two straight two-TD, 90+ yard contests in week 15 and 16 and seven touchdowns over four weeks. Kittle should be drafted as the fourth or fifth tight end off the board in most drafts, and he should provide a strong. though erratic, return on investment.
- Round 6, Pick 75 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 51 - 2022 Rank: 161
White played as a backup to Leonard Fournette last year and handled 179 touches. With Fournette not coming back, White appears set for a lead role. The big question was whether his 3.7 yards per carry was due to a bad offensive scheme and poor run-blocking along the offensive line, or whether it was White's inability to break tackles. White was in the eighth percentile in broken-tackle rate and 36th-percentile yards after contact. His involvement as a receiver went up as the season went on. He had four or fewer targets in nine of the first 10 games. But he was targeted five-to-nine times in four of his last six games. As a result, he posted at least 9.9 PPR points in five of the last six games. From a potential volume standpoint, White could finish as a top-24 running back. But with Tom Brady gone, what will the offense look like? Will he be able to hold onto the lead role? Will Chase Edmonds cut into the receiving work? Will the Bucs sign a veteran interior runner? There will be a lot of questions about the Tampa Bay offense. But White getting volume seems like a decent bet, though it's unclear how well he'll perform if given the chance.
- Round 7, Pick 94 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 93 - 2022 Rank: 217
When Watson returned Week 13 last year, it seemed like he had not played in a season and a half. Among 38 QBs with at least 170 attempts, Watson finished near the bottom with a 68.2 on-target percentage (32nd) and 58.2 completion percentage (36th). He failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his six games and averaged a meager 6.5 yards per pass attempt (32nd). Watson was especially inefficient throwing deep, completing four of his 17 attempts beyond 20 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. However, he did run for 175 yards, showing promise in that aspect. Watson missed the offseason program last year and was away from the team for three months, which likely contributed to his slower processing and poor performance. This year he'll be better prepared, and he'll also have more weapons following the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman (Round 3) alongside Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Browns also have RB Nick Chubb and TE David Njoku, not to mention a strong offensive line. With these improvements and adequate practice and training, Watson could return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, if not the top-5 QB that he was from 2018-20 in Houston.
- Round 8, Pick 103 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 48 - 2022 Rank: 744
Flowers was chosen as the third pick among four consecutive WRs taken in the first round during this April's draft. He was selected one pick ahead of Jordan Addison and went right after Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quentin Johnston. During his four years in college, Flowers played in subpar-to-mediocre offenses at BC, where he finished strong as a senior with 78 catches, 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns. In total, he accumulated 3,056 yards and 29 touchdowns throughout his college career. The 5-foot-9 wideout showcased his athleticism at the combine with a 4.42 40, 127-inch broad jump and a 35.5-inch vertical. The downside is that he's small, even for a speed merchant, and is the oldest of the four WRs drafted in Round 1 this April (23 in September). Furthermore, Flowers faces stiff competition for targets in Baltimore, where Rashod Bateman is returning from a foot injury, Odell Beckham signed an $15 million contract and TE Mark Andrews remaining a threat to lead the team in any and all receiving stats. Even with the addition of new OC Todd Monken, the Ravens offense is unlikely to rank among the league leaders in pass attempts, in part because QB Lamar Jackson is such a scrambling threat. There's also some risk of Flowers primarily playing the slot and thus being left off the field in two-wide formations in favor of Beckham, Bateman and possibly even Nelson Agholor.
- Round 9, Pick 122 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 122 - 2022 Rank: 140
Smith-Schuster technically operated as the Chiefs' top wide receiver during last season's Super Bowl run, putting up a 78-833-3 line in the regular season. In reality, though, he served as a true No. 2 receiving option behind tight end Travis Kelce. The Patriots saw fit to seemingly swap out Jakobi Meyers for Smith-Schuster, presumably setting up to handle a similar big-slot role, which does bode well, but production may be harder to come from while catching passes from Mac Jones instead of Patrick Mahomes. The acquisition of Mike Gesicki to pair with Hunter Henry could also forebode the Patriots running more two-TE sets, in which case an outside WR would likely share the field rather than a slot man. Still, Smith-Schuster's three-year, $25.5 million deal with $16 million guaranteed at signing is a nice guarantee of his involvement as a key pillar on offense. His base salaries for 2023 and 2024 are guaranteed, so he figures to remain in New England for at minimum a two-year stint.
- Round 10, Pick 131 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 131 - 2022 Rank: 224
Harris stays in the division after departing New England, inking a one-year deal with the Bills which sets him up as a key member of Buffalo's backfield. A thigh injury limited Harris to 11 games last season, but he remained efficient with 4.4 YPC. Durability is something of a concern, though, as Harris has combated lingering hamstring issues in back-to-back seasons. His lack of prowess as a pass catcher leaves clear room for James Cook to work in, almost certainly setting up the Bills for a committee backfield wherein quarterback Josh Allen is arguably still the top option. Harris is Buffalo's best RB option in goal-line and short-yardage scenarios, but Allen is a threat to siphon a substantial amount of those opportunities as well. The plus side for Harris' outlook is that the Bills project to find themselves in clock-killing situations more often than almost any team in the league, and Harris should be the clear go-to guy in those instances.
- Round 11, Pick 150 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 97 - 2022 Rank: 253
Doubs had a lot of opportunities early in the season when the Packers were aggressively trying to find an answer at receiver to complement Allen Lazard. Doubs impressed in some game, but often looked like the rookie that he was. It didn't help that Aaron Rodgers probably lost confidence in him from time to time. But due to a lack of weapons, Rodgers had to keep going back to him. Doubs then dealt with a high-ankle sprain that cost him time. If Doubs is to take a big second-year leap, it will be with a new quarterback in Jordan Love. If Love struggles, Doubs will as well, though he has an excellent opportunity to be a starting outside receiver across from Christian Watson, with Lazard joining Rodgers in New York. Doubs' season likely will hinge on how quickly Love develops.
- Round 12, Pick 159 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 120 - 2022 Rank: 788
Johnson was selected in the fourth round of the 2023 draft. In the days after the draft, much of the conversation by the organization about Johnson centered around his leadership and special-teams ability. It was also mentioned that he could be good in pass protection. When a team doesn't first talk about the player's ability at the position he was drafted, that's a massive red flag. Although he's a bigger back at 6', 219 pounds, he ran below average in his 40-yard-dash time and explosiveness drills. Although he forced many missed tackles in college, he took a significant number of his runs to the outside. That's unlikely to be a recipe for success at the NFL level, especially for a slower runner. Johnson may eventually become a staple in the Chicago backfield, but it may be difficult for him to move past D'Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert this year.
- Round 13, Pick 178 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 193 - 2022 Rank: 74
Singletary spent most of the past four years as Buffalo's starting RB after being selected in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. He averaged a respectable 4.7 YPC over that span, and after scoring just six scrimmage touchdowns in his first two seasons, Singletary found the end zone 14 times over the last two years. Despite underwhelming measurables (5-foot-8 and 203 pounds with 4.66 speed), Singletary has proven to be a capable NFL running back, but he's looking at a massive downgrade in the situation heading into 2023. After playing the lead RB role in one of the league's most prolific offenses, Singletary's expected to be bumped to the backup spot behind Dameon Pierce in a Houston offense that's been one of the least effective in recent years. The Texans are going through a makeover on offense, and the addition of Singletary on a one-year deal is part of that effort, but there isn't much upside here barring an injury to Pierce. Perhaps Singletary can carve out more playing time on passing downs since Pierce is unproven as a receiver, though Singletary's career mark of 5.0 yards per target doesn't inspire much confidence in that regard, either.
DEF - Round 14, Pick 187 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 227 - 2022 Rank: 124
The Commanders' star-studded defensive line remained stout in 2022 even with Chase Young only playing three games, but issues in the secondary led to a poor overall first-half performance. The unit turned things around over the final couple months, and Washington finished the season in the top 10 in points per game allowed and 12th in sacks. 2023 first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes should reinforce the back end, while Cody Barton comes over from Seattle to bolster the linebacking corps, but Young finally living up to his potential will likely be the key to this defense being great instead of merely good.
- Round 15, Pick 206 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 288 - 2022 Rank: 83
After being a roughly average kicker through his first eight years in the NFL, Gano made some adjustments and has been one of the league's most accurate and reliable legs since 2017. His fantasy value has wavered along with the efficiency of the offenses supporting him, but Brian Daboll turned the Giants into a solid unit last season, and the New York offense could take another step forward in 2023 if quarterback Daniel Jones continues his development and takes advantage of an improved collection of receiving options. Gano has seen either 32 or 33 field-goal attempts in each of his three seasons with the team, but there are reasons to believe his opportunities will increase this year.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
