In the whimsical world of the Rams Fans United League, Red Alice found themselves tumbling down the draft order, landing in the fifth spot. With 14 teams in the league and only 6 making it to the playoffs, their prospects were already looking as gloomy as the Queen of Hearts' temper. Armed with 15 rounds to assemble their team, Red Alice received a lackluster D+ draft grade, which perfectly matched their projected record of 5-9-0 and a dismal 9th place finish. It seems like they'll be sipping tea with the Mad Hatter instead of savoring victory.
Red Alice's projected points of 1540.7 might sound impressive, but unfortunately, they'll be facing the toughest schedule out of all 14 teams. It's as if the Cheshire Cat himself is playing tricks on them. To make matters worse, they'll have to navigate through bye week 7 with two players missing in action. While they did manage to snag Kenneth Walker III at pick 52, beating the ADP odds, their selection of Jaxon Smith-Njigba at pick 89 raised a few eyebrows. Perhaps they were lost in a daydream when that pick was made. All in all, Red Alice's draft leaves much to be desired, and it seems like they'll need a sprinkle of magic to turn their fortune around.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 5 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 12 - 2022 Rank: 53
The nature of Chase's production changed a lot between his rookie year and 2022, though he ranked fifth among WRs in fantasy points per game for a second straight year. After playing all 17 games in 2021 as a rookie, Chase made only 12 appearances last year yet finished with six more targets. He mostly added lower-value work, with his aDOT dropping from 12.6 to 9.0, his YPR from 18.0 to 12.0 and his YPT from 11.4 to 7.8. On the other hand, Chase was the lone player in the NFL to average 11 targets per game last year (11.2), and only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson averaged more catches (Chase had 7.3 for 87.2 yards). The most likely scenario for Chase in his age-23 season is combining some elements of the past two years, but there's also a ceiling scenario where he combines the rookie efficiency and sophomore volume to elevate above college buddy Justin Jefferson for the overall WR1 crown. At worst, the 2021 fifth overall pick is locked in as a top-10 wideout for fantasy, catching passes from star QB Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense in which fellow WR Tee Higgins also demands attention from opposing defensive backs.
- Round 2, Pick 24 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 17 - 2022 Rank: 3
Hurts ascended to elite status in 2022, finishing as QB3 for fantasy purposes while posting MVP-quality numbers and leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl. The improvements he made as a passer during his first two seasons in the league paid dividends after the team added A.J. Brown to a receiving corps already headlined by DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Hurts emerged as one of the NFL's most accurate passers in his third campaign. It's his running ability, however, that takes his production to another level. Nick Sirianni's scheme is designed around his game-breaking ability on the ground, and Hurts' 13 rushing touchdowns were the second most in NFL history by a quarterback. While it's hard to bank on that kind of record-setting performance repeating itself, the league elected not to legislate away the team's "tush push" rugby scrum approach to gaining short yards and getting the ball across the goal line, so double-digit rushing TDs could well be his floor. Hurts may not match the volume or pure passing upside of the likes of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, but at 24 years old, his best days should still be ahead of him.
- Round 3, Pick 33 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 28 - 2022 Rank: 122
Andrews had a massive year in 2021 with personal bests by margins of 43 catches (107) and 509 yards (1,361), including the most productive stretch of his career while catching passes from backup QB Tyler Huntley. It was a much different story in 2022, when Andrews averaged 63.1 yards in the nine games for which he and Lamar Jackson both were healthy but then dropped to 49.2 yards in five regular-season games with Huntley taking most of the snaps. All five of Andrews' TDs came from Jackson, who inked a five-year extension with Baltimore this offseason and now has more help after the signing of WR Odell Beckham and drafting of WR Zay Flowers. That amounts to more target competition for Andrews, but he's still the most trusted of Baltimore's receiving options and could end up running more routes under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, formerly the OC at Georgia. Kansas City's Travis Kelce remains in a league of his own, of course, but it's otherwise hard to name another tight end with a floor or ceiling higher than Andrews'.
- Round 4, Pick 52 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 14 - 2022 Rank: 43
Walker proved to be a very explosive running back in his rookie season. He finished the season with at least 100 yards rushing in each of his last three games and in five of his last 10 contests. On the season, he ended up with 1,215 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns on 255 touches. Although Walker had an outstanding 96th-percentile broken tackle rate, he posted just 54th-percentile yards after contact. He was very good as a receiver by posting a 67th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But Walker has a bit of a boom-or-bust nature to his game. He often will have a number of short runs before breaking off a long strike, but there are plenty of running backs in the past that have lived that way and been successful. However, Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second-round of this year's draft, which is not good news for Walker. It seems that Walker will enter the season as the lead runner, with Charbonnet having at least a significant change-of-pace role. Charbonnet required too much draft capital to sit on the bench. The situation will be enough of a timeshare to view Walker as a fantasy RB2 option, instead of the RB1 scenario he was shaping up to be before the Draft.
- Round 5, Pick 61 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 74 - 2022 Rank: 184
Starting his 2022 season in Week 7 after a suspension to start the year, Hopkins came out on fire the first few games. He then tailed off the rest of the way. Of course, the Cardinals did lose Kyler Murray in December to a knee injury, so the quarterback play was not good. However, Hopkins posted just a 14th-percentile yards after the catch rate. But with him seeing 10.6 targets per game, his production was always going to be solid. Aside from the suspension, he missed two games due to injury at the end of the season, on top of missing six games in 2021. Prior to those injuries, he only missed two games in his first eight seasons. Going into his age-31 season, we have to begin to wonder whether the durability issues have to do with him aging. The Titans are betting against it, as they signed Hopkins to a two-year contract in July after the Cardinals released him earlier in the offseason. The veteran wideout now joins an offense that's consistently prioritized the run under coach Mike Vrabel, but Hopkins at least won't have much competition for targets apart from 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks. The two wide receivers and RB Derrick Henry figure to account for a huge portion of Tennessee's offense.
- Round 6, Pick 80 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 81 - 2022 Rank: 87
If not for Russell Wilson's struggles and an ankle injury that cost Jeudy two games there would probably be more talk about how impressive Jeudy was in 2022. The former Alabama star is still just 24, yet last year he produced far above the Denver passing game base line while leading the team in receiving volume. The Broncos passing game completed 63.8 percent of its targets at 7.4 yards per target, but Jeudy finished with 67 receptions for 972 yards on 100 targets (67.0 percent catch rate, 9.7 yards per target). With numbers like that, it's no surprise the Broncos exercised the fifth-year option on Jeudy's rookie contract. If Jeudy can produce like that during a disaster season for Wilson then it makes sense to project a breakout season for Jeudy in 2023, especially if new coach Sean Payton can coax improvement out of Wilson. Even if Wilson doesn't improve, though, Jeudy has already shown an ability to produce despite a poor surrounding offense.
- Round 7, Pick 89 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 129 - 2022 Rank: 746
Smith-Njigba was selected with the 20th pick in this year's draft, profiling as a difference-making slot receiver. Although his 40 time was unimpressive, he showed excellent agility at the NFL Combine, which is what great slot receivers need, with elite marks in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and short shuttle (3.93). His biggest roadblock to fantasy relevance is his landing spot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will take the majority of WR targets on a team that wants to dominate on the ground. Metcalf is the No. 1 receiver and Lockett, even in his 30s, is still playing at a high level. Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the third wide receiver it has lacked in recent years and could make an immediate impact in three-receiver sets.
DEF - Round 8, Pick 108 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 139 - 2022 Rank: 63
While the Eagles' offense rightfully got plenty of credit for the team's run to the Super Bowl, the team's defense also posted elite numbers in 2022. Philadelphia's 70 sacks not only led the league, it was 15 ahead of second-place Kansas City, while the Eagles were tied for fourth in turnovers and ranked in the top 10 in points per game allowed.Fletcher Cox isn't getting younger, and the offseason saw some big changes in the linebacking corps, but the team re-signed Haason Reddick to a three-year $45 million deal in March to lead the pass rush once again, and Darius Slay and James Bradberry remain one the NFL's best duos at cornerback. Odds are the unit will take at least a small step backwards, as it's hard for things to go that right two seasons in a row, but even with natural regression, this could still be a top-five defense.
- Round 9, Pick 117 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 91 - 2022 Rank: 154
Signed to a two-year, $7.5 million contract in free agency, Perine is Denver's insurance for Javonte Williams while Williams recovers from his season-ending ACL/LCL injury from Week 4. New coach Sean Payton likely appreciated Perine's ability to play passing-down snaps, as Perine can make an impact both as a pass catcher and in blitz pickup. His dense, 240-pound frame allows Perine to withstand big volume if necessary, so his presence buys enough time for Williams to progress at whatever pace the Broncos want. With a career total of 1,592 yards and seven touchdowns rushing at 4.0 yards per carry, however, it's safe to say that Perine is volume-dependent as a runner. So long as Williams is active, it's difficult to imagine Perine claiming the rushing volume necessary to stand out. If the volume is up for grabs, though, Perine is prepared to shoulder it.
- Round 10, Pick 136 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 22 - 2022 Rank: 792
- Round 11, Pick 145 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 111 - 2022 Rank: 246
Warren's performance during his college years was unremarkable, and his athletic testing ahead of the 2022 NFL Draft was average. Nonetheless, he quickly made an impact with the Steelers after signing as an undrafted free agent last spring. He not only earned a roster spot but also surpassed two fourth-round picks from previous drafts on the Pittsburgh depth chart, becoming Najee Harris's backup and playing mostly in passing situations. At 5-8, 215, Warren's low center of gravity and reliable hands made him a nuisance for defenses on check-down throws. Although he's a valuable complementary player for Pittsburgh, he won't necessarily become a high-volume starter even if Harris misses time. Warren struggled to average 5.0 YPC in college, and though he achieved 4.9 YPC in 2022, it was partially due to the Steelers limiting his carries to low-stakes situations or snaps where the defense was expecting a pass. He does appear secure in his spot on the depth chart, as the Steelers still have little in the backfield beyond Harris and Warren.
- Round 12, Pick 164 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 123 - 2022 Rank: 256
When healthy, Edwards has been a dependable player for Baltimore, providing a reliable source of power running off the bench and making several starts when J.K. Dobbins couldn't play. While limited to just nine games last season after an ACL tear the year before, Edwards once again managed to average 5.0 yards per carry -- a mark he's never failed to reach. The arrival of new offensive coordinator Todd Monken may create some challenges and puts the streak in serious jeopardy. Former OC Greg Roman's heavy-package runs suited Edwards well, allowing him to focus on running between the tackles while defenses had to account for the threat of QB Lamar Jackson running around the end. Monken's expected emphasis on the passing game likely will come with fewer option plays, which means Edwards must demonstrate competence as a blocker and/or pass catcher to earn significant playing time. If the Ravens run less, as anticipated, Dobbins' superiority in these areas could result in fewer snaps for Edwards, especially since he is in the final year of his contract following a pay cut.
- Round 13, Pick 173 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 168 - 2022 Rank: 758
After his impressive showing at the combine this spring, Mingo was the fifth wide receiver taken in the 2023 NFL Draft, going to Carolina with the 39th overall pick. He displayed his potential by running a 4.46 40, bench-pressing 22 reps, broad-jumping 129 inches and posting a 39.5-inch vertical at 6-foot-2, 220. Although his college career at Ole Miss initially lacked luster, Mingo broke out with a 15-290-3 line in his first three games of his junior season (2021) before fracturing his foot during practice. He made a comeback last year but was far from dominant, finishing second on the team in catches, yards, and touchdowns, behind Malik Heath (who ran a 4.64 40 and went undrafted). Despite the largely underwhelming college career, Mingo has a chance to quickly earn a significant amount of playing time in Carolina, where he may even reprise his college role as an oversized slot receiver. His main competition for snaps figures to come from Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Terrace Marshall in an offense led by coach Frank Reich and quarterback Bryce Young.
- Round 14, Pick 192 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 52 - 2022 Rank: 385
Ford will enter training camp as Nick Chubb's backup after the Browns opted against re-signing both Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson. A fifth-round pick last year, Ford was limited mainly to kick returns as a rookie. However, in 2021 he had an impressive final collegiate season at Cincinnati with 20 touchdowns and more than 1,500 scrimmage yards. Prior to that, Ford played ahead of eventual third-round pick Brian Robinson at Alabama. Ford has average size for an NFL RB at 5-10, 210, and he was clocked at 4.46 seconds in the 40-yard dash last spring. The Browns seem to be believers, with 2021 sixth-round pick Demetric Felton representing Ford's most serious competition for playing time behind Chubb unless the team signs a noteworthy veteran over the summer.
- Round 15, Pick 201 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 224 - 2022 Rank: 190
The Browns let Hunt walk this offseason after his numbers took a big dip in 2022. He averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and 4.8 yards per target -- both more than a yard off his pace from the previous season. In 2012, he rushed for five touchdowns in just eight games; last year he had three in 17 games. It might take an injury in training camp before a team calls on Hunt, but he likely will get another shot at some point.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
