PARAM entered the Rams Fans United League draft with high hopes, but unfortunately, their performance left much to be desired. Despite having the 2nd overall pick, their draft grade of D suggests that they may have missed the mark. With a projected record of 5-9-0 and a projected finish in 9th place, PARAM seems to be in for a rough season. Their projected points of 1526.54 and a schedule difficulty ranking of 6th toughest out of 14 teams only add to their uphill battle.
While PARAM did manage to make a solid pick with Tyler Boyd at 139, surpassing his ADP of 129, their worst pick of Cam Akers at 30, well above his ADP of 57, raises some eyebrows. Additionally, PARAM took a risk by drafting three players from the same team: Joe Burrow, Tyler Boyd, and Cincinnati. It remains to be seen whether this strategy will pay off or lead to a lack of diversity in their lineup. With three players on bye week 10, PARAM will need to strategize carefully to avoid a major setback. It seems PARAM has a lot of work ahead of them if they want to live up to their team name and make a strong showing this season.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 2 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 3 - 2022 Rank: 18
Hill's record of exceptional on-field play has been consistent enough that his first year in Miami may actually be flying under the radar. Wide receivers usually see a dip in production in their first year with a new team, but Hill's inaugural season with the Dolphins saw him rack up a career-high 1,710 receiving yards (11th most in NFL history) to go with eight total touchdowns. The speedster managed that feat despite enduring tumultuous injuries at the quarterback position, and catching passes from a third-stringer by the end of the season. Part of the credit needs to go to coach Mike McDaniel's outstanding offensive scheme, and to Tua Tagovailoa's play under center. But the ultimate takeaway is that Hill is a game-breaker still in his prime. In 17 games last season, Hill broke 100 yards on seven occasions and led the entire NFL with 3.20 yards per route run. He seems a likely candidate for positive touchdown regression, especially if Tagovailoa can put together an fully healthy season. With Jaylen Waddle present to keep defenses honest but no other target competition of real significance, Hill finds himself in the perfect situation to once again produce Top-5 wide receiver stats.
- Round 2, Pick 27 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 101 - 2022 Rank: 4
Last season was Burrow's second in a row leading the NFL in on-target percentage (76.7) while finishing second in completion percentage (68.3). However, there was a slight dip in these stats in 2022 compared to the previous year, which is perhaps surprising because Burrow decreased his rate of deep throws significantly. In 2022, Burrow threw 20-plus yards downfield on only 7.5 percent of his attempts, ranking him 30th in the league. Meanwhile, his rate of passes behind the line of scrimmage rose to 19.6 percent. Nevertheless, he finished as QB4 in fantasy with the help of five touchdown runs and 257 rushing yards. Burrow also remained efficient on deep throws, tying Geno Smith for the highest on-target rate on 20-plus-yard attempts (60.0 percent). The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line did not meet preseason expectations, which could explain Burrow's increase in dump-offs. However, the team has since signed standout left tackle Orlando Brown and moved Jonah Williams to right tackle. Burrow's top three wide receivers, including Ja'marr Chase, are still on the team, and Irv Smith is replacing Hayden Hurst at tight end. Burrow's efficiency could improve, and even with some expected regression in his rushing touchdowns he stands a decent chance to remain in the Top 5 of fantasy QBs.
- Round 3, Pick 30 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 87 - 2022 Rank: 97
Akers had a weird 2022 season. We'll never know if he was still recovering from the Achilles injury he suffered in 2021. In Weeks 1-10, he averaged 2.83 yards per carry and was benched for two games. Although he faced four of the top 10 defenses in those seven games, he looked as if he was struggling to get to the line of scrimmage before getting hit on most carries. After his banishment, he continued to struggle, as he played 21 snaps but ran for just 2.72 yards per carry. However, he was a completely different player during the last eight games of the season. He rushed for 4.8 yards per carry, though he did that against an easy schedule. He was specifically excellent in Weeks 15 through 18 when he faced defenses in the bottom 10 in three of the four games. He had at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of those games along with a three-touchdown performance. and during that stretch, he averaged 5.47 yards per carry while also catching nine passes. So the big question becomes whether his resurgence had to do with schedule or recovering from his injury. It's likely that the answer is somewhere in the middle. ranking him around RB20 seems safe, as he should get volume, though we're unsure as to what level he'll play at. If it was just a matter of Akers getting back to full health, he will be one of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts, but there is definitely a risk.
- Round 4, Pick 55 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 50 - 2022 Rank: 51
Much of the discussion surrounding Kamara the past couple years has focused on a potential suspension, and the NFL finally made a decision in early August with the announcement of a three-game ban. Otherwise, Kamara is no longer the top-three running back he was the first few years of his career, though he's still recorded at least 1,300 scrimmage yards in each of his six seasons. The past two years he got more carries (240 and 223) but fewer targets (67, 77) after starting his career with four straight seasons of at least 97 targets and fewer than 200 carries. Much of that was related to the Saints transitioning to a run-first offense after Drew Brees' retirement, and it's possible Kamara shifts back toward more receiving work after the team signed a veteran QB (Derek Carr) and a 224-pound RB (Jamaal Williams) and spent a third-round pick on RB Kendre Miller. Less likely is Kamara recovering the TD prowess and remarkable per-touch efficiency of his early years, in part because he's lost a step and in part because Williams and QB/TE Taysom Hill figure to get most of the goal-line carries. There's still potential for Kamara to be an every-week fantasy starter once he completes the three-game suspension, but a high-end-RB1 ceiling is no longer within his range of outcomes.
- Round 5, Pick 58 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2160 - 2022 Rank: 128
Back injuries are always concerning, and maybe even more so for Williams given the neck injury he suffered in his Clemson days, but the minor back fracture suffered by Williams in Week 18 appears to be a non-issue. More specifically, Williams said in June that the back had been fully recovered since the spring. So long as he's healthy, then Williams should plug back in to a high-volume role in one of the league's most enviable passing games. Williams' target rate rose significantly over the last two years, a span in which he averaged about 120 targets per 850 snaps after averaging only about 85 targets per 850 snaps in his first four seasons. If he can maintain that elevated target rate for a third year and stay healthy all season then 2023 could shape up to be a career year for Williams. There's a possible concern with the introduction of first-round pick Quentin Johnston, but Johnston is more of a downfield specialist than someone who can run the same intermediate routes as Williams. Rather than Williams' usage, Johnston should instead raid the comparatively inefficient targets that went to Joshua Palmer (107) and Gerald Everett (87).
- Round 6, Pick 83 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 90 - 2022 Rank: 202
The Browns' displayed immense confidence in Njoku last offseason when they gave him a franchise tag and then signed him to a four-year extension. It was a bit surprising on the heels of back-to-back years with modest receiving production while sharing snaps with fellow tight end Austin Hooper. But then with Hooper moving to Tennessee last year, Njoku took over a three-down role and was on pace for career highs in nearly every significant receiving category before lower-body injuries cost him three full games and parts of two others in the middle of the year. Njoku nonetheless managed personal bests for receptions (58) and catch rate (72.5 percent) and fell only 11 yards shy (628) of his 2018 total. Njoku turns 27 this summer - he's young for a seventh-year pro - and should have a similarly crucial role in the Browns offense, creating upside for big-time production if Deshaun Watson gets back to his Houston level of play at QB. There's more competition for targets after the Browns added WRs Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman and TE Jordan Akins, but the new additions won't necessarily threaten Njoku's standing as a three-down tight end who rarely leaves the field. A more comfortable Watson could see Njoku score more than last year's four touchdowns.
- Round 7, Pick 86 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 36 - 2022 Rank: 75
A second-round pick in 2020, Swift flashed his talent and upside over three seasons with the Lions but also demonstrated an unfortunate propensity for getting hurt, and he got flipped to the Eagles in the offseason. Having proven he can't hold up under a big workload, the Georgia product could find himself in a somewhat ideal situation in the final year of his rookie contract, as coach Nick Sirianni has leaned toward using a backfield committee during his time at the helm in Philadelphia. The big question will be who's involved in that committee for any particular week in 2023. Miles Sanders is now in Carolina, but Swift will be joined by fellow injury-prone newcomer Rashaad Penny, and holdovers Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott have had their moments in an Eagles uniform. Swift's three-down skill set gives him more versatility than Penny, but the duo could both be extremely effective behind the team's elite offensive line if reduced volume allows them to stay out of the trainer's room.
- Round 8, Pick 111 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 159 - 2022 Rank: 736
Beckham missed all last season to rehab his ACL tear from the previous year's Super Bowl, waiting until April before signing a one-year deal with Baltimore worth $15 million, mostly guaranteed. It's a surprisingly large number for a wideout four years removed from this last 1,000-yard season, and he'll even have the chance to earn an additional $3 million in incentives. Beckham, 30, is a big part of Baltimore's passing-game makeover under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, whose brief tenure with the team has also been marked by QB Lamar Jackson signing an extension and the front office using a first-round pick on WR Zay Flowers. While both Jackson and Beckham seem happy, fantasy managers should be wary of Beckham's injury history and decrease in production. Even if he returns to form and stays healthy, he'll have sturdy competition for targets in what figures to be a balanced offense. In addition to Flowers and Beckham, the Ravens have 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman coming back from a foot injury and TE Mark Andrews looming as an annual threat to lead the team in targets. Beckham might help the Ravens more than he helps fantasy teams.
- Round 9, Pick 114 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 92 - 2022 Rank: 214
Although the Rams had a terrible season on offense, the same cannot be said for Higbee. He had career highs with 72 receptions and 108 targets. However, due to the crumbling offensive line and carousel at quarterback, his 8.6 yards per reception was the lowest since his 2016 rookie season. Higbee was frequently used on tight end screens, so his 64th-percentile yards after the catch rate helped him to post decent yardage totals, but he was very inconsistent (he had 15 or fewer yards in seven of his last 12 games). Nonetheless, in Weeks 1-5 when the offense was decent, he had between 39 and 73 yards in each game. Going into his age-30 season, it's unlikely Higbee will finish inside the top-12 tight ends, but he should be in the tier below that.
- Round 10, Pick 139 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 172 - 2022 Rank: 142
Boyd has finished with 750-to-850 receiving yards in each season since the Bengals drafted QB Joe Burrow and WR Tee Higgins (2020). Earlier in his career, Boyd had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2018-19, operating as Cincinnati's No. 1 receiver for a time. Now the team's No. 3 wide receiver, Boyd has partially made up for a huge decrease in target volume by upping his catch rates and yards per target throughout Burrow's tenure. This reduction in volume seems unlikely to reverse in a meaningful way unless Higgins and/or Ja'Marr Chase miss(es) a large chunk of the season. Even then, it's worth noting that Boyd averaged only five targets and 35.5 yard in the four games Chase missed last season. Higgins, on the other hand, averaged nine targets and 92.8 yards during that period. Boyd is still a viable option in deeper fantasy setups where his relatively high floor has value, but managers in shallower leagues are probably better off using a late pick on a young receiver with more risk/reward.
DEF - Round 11, Pick 142 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 204 - 2022 Rank: 156
The Bengals defense had a strong 2022, ranking eighth with 24 takeaways and sixth with only 19 points allowed per game. However, the team lost both starting safeties, Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, during free agency in the offseason. As a result, they will have to rely on 2022 first-rounder Dax Hill and new signing Nick Scott to step up.Additionally, the Bengals have added second-round rookie CB DJ Turner to their secondary. The team's front seven at least looks strong again, which may aid the inexperienced secondary. And from a fantasy standpoint, it helps that the Bengals have an offense capable of providing large leads throughout the season.
- Round 12, Pick 167 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 221 - 2022 Rank: 109
Jacksonville promptly scooped up McManus after the 32-year-old kicker was released by the Broncos earlier this offseason. His career 81.4 percent conversion rate on field goals is nothing to write home about, but McManus has a big leg, and the Broncos didn't hesitate to have him attempt plenty of long kicks in the Denver altitude. Over the previous three seasons, McManus converted all 26 of his field-goal attempts from 40-49 yards but just 23 of 37 from 50-plus. His volume figures to go up on a Jaguars team that averaged 23.8 PPG last season compared to Denver's league-low 16.9, and Jacksonville's more likely to improve than regress in Trevor Lawrence's third season under center.
- Round 13, Pick 170 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 192 - 2022 Rank: 211
Valdes-Scantling is a textbook example of a player who's more useful on the real football field than in fantasy football. He has speed that forces the safety to stay over the top, a useful decoy function that helps buy cover for Travis Kelce underneath, and if the safety doesn't defend MVS over the top then Patrick Mahomes is prepared to strike against the single coverage. If the defense tries to counter MVS' speed with a similarly speedy corner, then that corner is usually much smaller and thus someone MVS can bully as a blocker in the ground game. The problem is neither of these scenarios result in fantasy points for MVS, even though he's playing a very real role in making the Chiefs offense succeed. Dropped passes have always been an issue and will likely continue to cap MVS' per-snap target upside. The result is that MVS can't credibly draw targets in the underneath or intermediate, leaving him mostly dependent on hit-or-miss production on sporadic downfield targets.
- Round 14, Pick 195 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 117 - 2022 Rank: 34
Carr threw 24 or fewer TD passes in five of the last six years. He also has been held to fewer than 29 TD passes in nine of 10 seasons with a career high of 32 in 2015. It speaks volumes that the Raiders basically sent him home for the last three games of last season, eventually letting him walk with no real backup plan or compensation in return. Joey Bosa called it out a couple of years ago when he said that Carr folds under pressure. Last year, Carr had good blocking from his tackles, though the interior was a mess. Now with the Saints, he'll have solid RT play from Ryan Ramczyk. But unless the other linemen make jumps in previous effectiveness, this line will be a problem for Carr. Expect the Saints to hope their defense can keep them competitive. Also, look for a slow pace on offense with an emphasis on the running game when possible. The downfield passing could be a problem due to the OL, so Carr will need to have success in the short and intermediate areas. He'll likely be a borderline top-24 QB.
- Round 15, Pick 198 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 269 - 2022 Rank: 73
Patterson has had the best two years of his 10-year career while with the Falcons. As good as he was running the football in 2021, he was even better in 2022. He went from 4.0 to 4.8 yards per carry and doubled his runs of more than 20 yards from two to four. He had an excellent 82nd-percentile broken-tackle rate and turned that into a 62nd-percentile yards after contact. But after handling 22 and 17 carries in Weeks 1 and 3 last season, he never had more than 14 carries thereafter. And he finished the season with 18 carries over his last three games. Also, his work as a receiver was drastically reduced. After catching 52 passes for 548 yards and five touchdowns in 2021, his targets fell from 69 to 31 and his yards per target were slashed by more than half from 7.9 to 3.9. It's difficult to imagine his role increasing as he heads into his age-33 season. With rookie Bijan Robinson the starter, it's hard to imagine Patterson will have a reliable role, unless it's at wide receiver.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
