The Overkiller's, representing Motor City Football, made quite the entrance in their draft. Despite picking last in the draft order, they managed to leave a lasting impression with their D-grade performance. With a projected record of 5-9-0 and an 8th place finish, it seems like they're aiming for the middle of the pack. Their projected points of 3257.59 may not be enough to strike fear into their opponents, but hey, at least they're consistent. The Overkiller's will face the 7th toughest schedule out of the 10 teams, making their path to victory as treacherous as a haunted house on Halloween night. And let's not forget, they'll have to navigate through bye week 13 with two players down, adding an extra layer of challenge to their already spooky season.
While The Overkiller's may not have made the best picks overall, they did manage to pull off a few surprises. Their best pick was James Conner, who was drafted at 70 but had an ADP of 57. Talk about finding a diamond in the graveyard! On the other hand, their worst pick was Trevor Lawrence, who was drafted at 30 despite having an ADP of 59. Looks like The Overkiller's couldn't resist the temptation of an early scare. And speaking of scares, they went all-in on one team, drafting three players from the same team: Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Let's hope that team's success translates to fantasy points, otherwise The Overkiller's might find themselves buried at the bottom of the league. All in all, it's safe to say that The Overkiller's are ready to bring their own brand of terror to the Motor City Football league this season. Watch out, opponents, because this team is dead set on making their mark!
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 10 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 6 - 2022 Rank: 22
Diggs' couldn't have asked for a better career development than being traded to Buffalo back in 2020, as each of his three seasons with the Bills resulted in more receiving yards and more catches than any of his five years in Minnesota. Heading into his age-30 season, Diggs is coming off three straight Pro Bowls and a 2022 campaign that saw him set a new career-high TD mark with 11 scores, including three in Week 2 alone. As the clear No. 1 target for Josh Allen, Diggs has averaged 112.7 catches for 1,396.3 yards and 9.7 touchdowns per season in his time with the Bills, solidifying himself as one of the few true alpha wideouts in the league. First-round rookie TE Dalton Kincaid a crowded cast of complementary options, but none of Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir or Dawson Knox are a true threat to Diggs' target share. As he approaches his age-30 season, remember that Diggs will some day begin to slow down. But he hasn't shown any signs of that yet. For now, the veteran is attached to an elite quarterback and established as the unquestioned No. 1 option amid his offense.
- Round 2, Pick 11 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 18 - 2022 Rank: 24
It seems like Henry's decline is predicted every year, but the 29-year-old running back continues to churn out stellar seasons, and he made some major strides as a pass catcher last year that could help the bruising runner age more gracefully. Henry set career highs last season in targets (41), catches (33) and receiving yards (398) in 2022, nearly doubling his previous best of 206 receiving yards from 2019. Last season, Henry also churned out 1,538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on a league-high 349 carries - numbers right in line with his averages from the previous three seasons. The foot injury that limited Henry to eight games in 2021 is firmly in the rearview mirror, and he looked as spry as ever in 2022, as his 10 carries of 20-plus yards marked the second-highest such total of his career. There are concerns over how many scoring opportunities Henry will get given the state of Tennessee's passing game, and it's fair to wonder if this will be the year that his massive workloads finally catch up to him. But those same concerns haven't stopped Henry before, and he should once again get all the touches he can handle as the focal point of the Titans offense.
- Round 3, Pick 30 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 72 - 2022 Rank: 7
Lawrence made a second-year leap under new coach Doug Pederson, posting a 25:8 TD:INT after mustering a 12:17 mark during his forgettable rookie season. The first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft enters his third season as an established top-10 fantasy QB, but Lawrence's ceiling is higher than that, as he still has a few obvious areas for further improvement. Lawrence's 7.0 YPA in 2022 ranked a pedestrian 18th, and the underrated runner mustered only 291 yards on the ground after rushing for 334 as a rookie, though Lawrence increased his rushing TD total from two to five. He'll also be working with an improved supporting cast in 2023, as the Jaguars added WR Calvin Ridley - who had 1,374 receiving yards for the Falcons in 2020 but sat out 2022 entirely due to a gambling suspension - while retaining their top four skill position players from last season (WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram and RB Travis Etienne). Playing in the underwhelming AFC South could be both a blessing and a curse for Lawrence. While the Jaguars are favored to repeat as division champs, they will likely spend the majority of their six games against the Titans, Colts and Texans playing from a lead, thus potentially limiting Lawrence's volume after he attempted 670 passes last year - sixth-most in the NFL.
- Round 4, Pick 31 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 21 - 2022 Rank: 38
The 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Smith followed up his strong rookie campaign with an even better Year 2. Rather than being overshadowed by A.J. Brown after he was acquired from the Titans, the different skill sets of the two wideouts proved to complement each other perfectly, and their presence downfield allowed Jalen Hurts to break out and join the ranks of elite NFL quarterbacks. The two receivers saw similar volumes, and while Brown's size and athleticism made him a better deep threat, Smith's sharp route-running allowed him to pick apart defenses in the intermediate parts of the field. The Eagles had little turnover on the offensive side of the ball after their NFC Championship, so Smith's role figures to remain stable in 2023. He should continue to feature prominently in debates about who the best No. 2 receiver in the league is, alongside Tee Higgins and Jaylen Waddle.
- Round 5, Pick 50 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 57 - 2022 Rank: 49
Lockett has been one of the most consistent performers in the NFL over the last four years. During that time, he's posted between 1,033 and 1,175 yards. He's also scored between 8-10 touchdowns in five straight years. His targets have also been consistent, as he has seen between 107 and 117 in three of the last four years. Last year, he had an excellent weekly scoring floor. He posted at least 60 yards in 10 games. He's going into his age 31 season, so decline is likely on the horizon, but from what we've seen, he may likely have a gradual descent opposed to a complete loss of skills. Lockett will likely be a value in drafts like he was last year, and betting on his consistency over many years seems like a safe bet.
- Round 6, Pick 51 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 29 - 2022 Rank: 69
Hockenson could become the No. 2 receiver for the Vikings in 2023. Adam Thielen is no longer on the team, though Minnesota used a first-round pick to select wide receiver Jordan Addison. It's possible that Addison is the second option right away. But Hockenson was a big part of the offense last year while gaining valuable chemistry with Kirk Cousins. Hockenson was heavily targeted since being acquired by the Vikings in the middle of last season. He had at least eight targets in seven of his last nine games before the meaningless week 18 contest. However, the young tight end posted fewer than 60 yards in seven of his last nine games. And his two big games for Minnesota both came against the New York Giants, one of which was in the playoffs. Overall, Hockenson should maintain an excellent scoring floor, which is rare at the tight end position. That said, he has a limited ceiling based on last year second-half performance and the addition of Addison. Hockenson's potential scoring floor will have some fantasy managers projecting Hockenson as a top-three tight end.
- Round 7, Pick 70 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 59 - 2022 Rank: 79
Conner overcame a rough team situation for the second year in a row to post excellent production. In 13 games, He totaled 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite terrible run blocking from the Cardinals, he was able to produce due to a 73rd percentile broken tackle rate and 72nd percentile yards after contact. His 4.3 yards per carry equaled his best total since 2018 when he was running behind a strong offensive line in Pittsburgh. He continues to be an excellent receiver, recording 65th percentile yards after the catch rate. His 46 receptions represented the second most of his career. Of course, Conner will miss time. He's missed between two and six games over the last six seasons, but as the running back position goes, that's not terrible either. He continues to be disrespected in fantasy drafts. it's likely that people overrate his injury history. It's also possible that they remember the weak start to the season that he had last year. But going into his age-28 season, he still should have another year of solid production. and as long as you're prepared for him missing some time, drafting him to be an RB2 makes sense.
- Round 8, Pick 71 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 73 - 2022 Rank: 123
Pacheco's rookie season was a smashing success, and one the former Rutgers standout could potentially build on in his second NFL season. Pacheco's hard-charging, high-speed approach as a runner between the tackles makes him difficult for defenses to handle as they more so concern themselves with Patrick Mahomes, so there's not much reason to fear regression from Pacheco's average of 4.9 yards per carry from 2022. Pacheco has the speed to score from long range, yet in 2022 he had only three carries over 20 yards and none over 40 - both of those numbers would be good bets to rise in 2023. There's also room for growth in Pacheco's pass-catching production. The Chiefs increased his route-running workload as the season progressed, and Pacheco was occasionally effective as a receiver in his Rutgers days. Jerick McKinnon is still around to poach passing-down snaps if Pacheco slips up, and former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire can't be written off entirely either, but Pacheco has the clear lead in this backfield and plenty of momentum behind him.
- Round 9, Pick 90 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 176 - 2022 Rank: 57
There's some concern about the foot that Garoppolo injured in December and underwent surgical repair in March. That concern led the Raiders to word Garoppolo's three-year, $72.75 million contract such that he can be cut with no cap penalty unless he passes a physical at some unspecified point. The Raiders presumably plan on Garoppolo passing said physical, or else they (A) wouldn't have bothered pursuing him with such a high-dollar contract and (B) they would have done something more about the quarterback position otherwise than just signing Brian Hoyer and spending a fourth-round pick on Aidan Hutchinson. If Garoppolo is toast then so is the Raiders offense, and coach Josh McDaniels certainly doesn't want that, especially after such a disastrous 2022 season. If Garoppolo can stay healthy then he should be a stabilizing presence for the Raiders as they move on from Derek Carr, who did not take well to McDaniels' scheme. Garoppolo's familiarity with McDaniels from their New England days should hopefully make Garoppolo a better fit in 2023 than Carr was in 2022. With Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow to throw to, it would seem like Garoppolo has the necessary help to move the ball as long as that foot cooperates.
- Round 10, Pick 91 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 68 - 2022 Rank: 67
After racking up 1,082 yards on 129 targets in 2021, Pittman dipped to 925 yards on 141 targets last season. The decline in efficiency can be attributed to abhorrent quarterback play by the combination of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles. Entering his fourth NFL season, Pittman once again profiles as the clear No. 1 WR for the Colts, but the team's QB situation remains murky. Indianapolis signed Gardner Minshew and drafted Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Minshew probably represents an upgrade over the options throwing Pittman the ball last year, but Richardson will likely claim the starting job before long, and the question marks about Richardson's accuracy coupled with his running ability could lead to declines in both passing volume and efficiency. Still, the Colts could find themselves playing from behind often, and the lack of established targets behind Pittman suggests the 25-year-old wide receiver should remain busy after ranking 12th league-wide in targets last season despite missing one game.
DEF - Round 11, Pick 110 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 307 - 2022 Rank: 143
During the second half of last season, the Lions showed signs of improvement. However, the only area in which they were close to average was the 39 sacks they produced. Otherwise, they recorded just 12 interceptions while giving up the fourth-most points in the league (427). Teams should still be able to attack the Lions on the ground, as they don't have defenders in the front seven that are above average, though they'll hope rookie Jack Campbell is a difference maker. They did address the cornerback position in the offseason, and they potentially should have above average coverage. The pass rush could see an increase in production with Aidan Hutchinson entering his second year.However, as of now, there are no other consistent disruptors the team can count on. This should be a bottom-half defense, and they could build on the success they had on occasion in the second half of last season. However, it's unlikely they have the talent to be a top-10 group.
- Round 12, Pick 111 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 77 - 2022 Rank: 85
Mostert re-signs in Miami to return to an ideal scheme fit with coach Mike McDaniel, and also one of the league's more crowded backfields. He and fellow 49ers holdover Jeff Wilson figure to open the season as effectively a 1a/1b tandem, regardless of whoever is officially the starter, just as was the case last season whenever both veterans were simultaneously available. Wilson saw more work as a pass-catcher in 2022 while Mostert's skillset allows him to manufacture big plays more regularly. However, Mostert's role could overlap more with rookie third-round pick Devon Achane. Both are speedsters of slighter frames, although Mostert is far closer to a back or prototypical size than Achane. It seems almost a likely event that the Dolphins ultimately roll out a three-headed committee, one which would almost certainly prove productive, but make week-to-week performances difficult to predict.
- Round 13, Pick 130 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 167 - 2022 Rank: 83
McKinnon's ability to improvise with Patrick Mahomes while phasing out of blitz pickup or play-action makes him difficult for defenses to keep track of, especially the longer a play goes on. The Chiefs offensive line is excellent and Mahomes might be the most dangerous improviser at quarterback the league has ever seen, so Mahomes extends plays regularly enough for McKinnon to make a fantasy impact even as a backup. It's not clear how locked in McKinnon might be relative to his 2022 workload - Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are both capable of poaching passing-down snaps - but in 2022 McKinnon just about had the Kansas City running back receiving production to himself. As much as it seems unlikely that McKinnon would play more than the 497 snaps he did in 2022, it's also not obvious why the Chiefs would scale it back too much. With that said, if McKinnon is to be a useful fantasy asset in 2023 then he'll likely need to make it happen as a receiver, so he can't afford to lose any passing-down snaps.
- Round 14, Pick 131 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 129 - 2022 Rank: 750
Smith-Njigba was selected with the 20th pick in this year's draft, profiling as a difference-making slot receiver. Although his 40 time was unimpressive, he showed excellent agility at the NFL Combine, which is what great slot receivers need, with elite marks in the three-cone drill (6.57 seconds) and short shuttle (3.93). His biggest roadblock to fantasy relevance is his landing spot. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will take the majority of WR targets on a team that wants to dominate on the ground. Metcalf is the No. 1 receiver and Lockett, even in his 30s, is still playing at a high level. Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the third wide receiver it has lacked in recent years and could make an immediate impact in three-receiver sets.
- Round 15, Pick 150 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 215 - 2022 Rank: 1033
With Robbie Gould no longer with the 49ers, the team drafted Moody with a third-round pick. With that type of investment, Moody, who converted 87 percent of his field-goal attempts at Michigan, has a strong chance to enter the year as the starter. Due to the explosiveness of the 49ers offense, Moody should have a solid weekly scoring floor, and is worth considering as a top-12 option at his position.
- Round 16, Pick 151 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 141 - 2022 Rank: 247
Okonkwo was brought along slowly for the first half of his rookie season, but the 2022 fourth-round pick out of Maryland flourished down the stretch. He caught at least three passes in six of Tennessee's final seven games, racking up 24 catches for 278 yards and two touchdowns over that span. Veteran WR Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, who worked ahead of Okonkwo at TE for most of last season, both left in free agency. Okonkwo and fellow 2022 draft pick Treylon Burks are thus set to take on expanded roles in the Tennessee passing game alongside offseason signing DeAndre Hopkins. Okonkwo's undersized at 6-foot-2 and 244 pounds, but if he blocks well enough to earn an every-down role in the Titans' run-first offense, the tight end should continue to cause mismatches for defenses with his 4.52 speed, which was the best among all tight ends in his draft class. Tennessee didn't bring in a veteran replacement for Hooper, settling for 2023 fifth-round pick Josh Whyle, so Okonkwo should get every opportunity to expand his role in 2023 after playing more than half of the team's offensive snaps only twice in 2022.
- Round 17, Pick 170 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 175 - 2022 Rank: 242
It's been a star-crossed NFL career for Edwards-Helaire to this point, and he heads into 2023 in a place almost unimaginable back when the Chiefs made him the first running back selected in the 2020 NFL Draft. Once selected ahead of players like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, and D'Andre Swift, Edwards-Helaire now finds himself on the Chiefs roster bubble and presumably no more than their RB3 behind Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. Bitter as fantasy investors might be after three disappointing years with Edwards-Helaire, he hasn't failed so much as he's been a victim of circumstances. Injuries are a recurring issue, and it was when Edwards-Helaire sat out over the last three years that players like Pacheco and McKinnon got their feet in the door. When Edwards-Helaire has been healthy enough to play, though, he's been reasonably productive. Edwards-Helaire's career total of 371 carries has yielded 1,622 yards (4.4 YPC) and 11 touchdowns, which is too good for him to be a total waste of space. With that said a change of scenery might be best for Edwards-Helaire's career and fantasy interests.
- Round 18, Pick 171 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 201 - 2022 Rank: 179
Sanders managed a career-high 41 PATs in coach Mike McDaniel's high-flying offense last season, while also converting 81 percent of his 32 field-goal attempts. He went an impressive 12 of 13 from the 40-49 range, but only converted 2 of 6 from 50+ yards out. Though he may not be more than a slightly above league-average kicker, Sanders' leg strength allows his number to be dialed from a wide range of positions on the field. The Dolphins' offense projects to be among one of the league's better scoring units, and if the team's additions on defense also work out, Sanders could find himself in position to close out games more often.
- Round 19, Pick 190 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 133 - 2022 Rank: 771
Bigsby was selected in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Jaguars after posting 2,903 yards and 25 touchdowns on 540 carries (5.4 YPC) in 35 games over the past three years at Auburn. The 6-foot, 210-pound Bigsby reportedly impressed as both a rusher and pass catcher at OTAs, further entrenching his standing as the top backup to Travis Etienne. While Etienne was a big play machine in his first NFL season last year, he struggled to churn out consistent gains at times, so Bigsby has a direct path to a prominent role in clock-killing situations, which could be plentiful if the Jaguars play up to their billing as favorites in the AFC South. Bigsby will need to hold off RBs D'Ernest Johnson, JaMycal Hasty, Snoop Conner, and Qadree Ollison in camp and preseason, but the rookie is the clear favorite to open his NFL career as the No. 2 option behind Etienne, if not the 1B in a platoon.
DEF - Round 20, Pick 191 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 311 - 2022 Rank: 122
The Chargers defense lost defensive coordinator Renaldo Hill to the Dolphins in what was actually a demotion in title (defensive backs coach), a strange twist given that Hill seemed to have a good thing going with the Chargers. At least they were able to replace Hill with Derrick Ansley, who hopefully won't miss a beat after serving as the defensive backs coach under Hill the last two years. If Ansley can keep the system working, then the Chargers otherwise have the player talent to field a strong defense in 2023. Cornerback is the main question following the devastating patellar tendon tear suffered by high-dollar pickup J.C. Jackson, but the good news is the secondary should have help from a strong pass rush, especially if Joey Bosa can stay healthy. Bosa, Khalil Mack and second-round rookie Tuli Tuipulotu could form a fierce edge rush, and inside linebacker signing Eric Kendricks could improve the run defense and tight end coverage both. Durability has been the main undoing of the Chargers defense lately, so some better luck might be all it takes for them to break out in 2023.
- Round 21, Pick 210 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 209 - 2022 Rank: 101
Peoples-Jones, a 2020 sixth-round pick, progressed from being a part-time deep threat his first two seasons to a regular starter in 2022. In 17 games played last season, he had a receiving line of 61 catches, 839 yards and three touchdowns on 96 targets. Compared to the previous year, Peoples-Jones had 38 more targets but recorded a drop in his average depth of target (aDOT) from 15.4 to 11.7. Furthermore, his yards per catch (YPC) and yards per target (YPT) decreased from 17.6 to 13.8 and 10.3 to 8.7, respectively. However, the Browns swung a trade this offseason for fellow wide receiver Elijah Moore, a 2021 second-round pick who is much smaller than Peoples-Jones at 5-10, 178, but also far more agile and faster (4.35 40). Although it's unclear whether Peoples-Jones and Moore will compete for a starting job or if Moore will be limited to being the No. 3 receiver in the slot, there is tough target competition behind Amari Cooper this year either way. The Browns also added WR Cedric Tillman in the third round to assist QB Deshaun Watson, and they already have a legitimate receiving threat at tight end in David Njoku.
- Round 22, Pick 211 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 160 - 2022 Rank: 173
Now in the second year of a two-year contract with the Chargers, Everett heads into 2023 after a Chargers debut that was more busy than it was effective. Everett's target rate was excellent - 87 targets on 648 snaps should be major currency in such an enviable passing game - but the returns for those targets were underwhelming. It's a theme throughout Everett's career: despite being fast and making the occasional big play, his efficiency leaves something to be desired. To be fair to Everett, his 2022 production looks better if you include his performance in the Chargers' wildcard round loss to the Jaguars. If you include that game, then Everett finished 2022 with 64 catches for 663 yards and five touchdowns on 95 targets - an improved 67.4 percent catch rate at 7.0 yards per target compared to 66.7 percent at 6.4 YPT from the regular season - but it's worth remembering that Mike Williams missed that game and the Jaguars clearly sold out to stop Keenan Allen (six catches for 61 yards on 13 targets) and Austin Ekeler (two catches for eight yards on four targets). Everett is likely an excellent fantasy TE2 who could provide TE1 returns with a little luck, just don't expect the Jaguars game to be the norm.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
