In the Motor City Football league, Dirty 54 took the 8th spot in the draft order and managed to secure a solid C- grade. With a projected finish of 7th and a projected record of 6-8-0, it seems like Dirty 54 is aiming for mediocrity. Their projected points of 3361.04 may not be impressive, but hey, at least they're not projected to finish last!
Dirty 54's draft strategy seemed to revolve around taking risks, and not necessarily the good kind. Their best pick was DK Metcalf, who was drafted at 48 but had an ADP of 36. On the other hand, their worst pick was Diontae Johnson, who was drafted at 53 despite having an ADP of 84. It's safe to say that Dirty 54's draft board had a few questionable choices. And let's not forget the four players they drafted from the same team - Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, and Pittsburgh. Maybe they're hoping for some kind of magical synergy, or maybe they just really like that team's uniforms. Either way, Dirty 54's draft was definitely an interesting one, to say the least.
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ADP Analysis
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
- Round 1, Pick 8 - Bye 10
2023 Rank: 23 - 2022 Rank: 1
Fresh off his second Super Bowl victory, second MVP title and his best season since he took the league by storm in 2018, it's easier than ever to declare Mahomes the best quarterback in the NFL. Whether that proves to be true in fantasy football is a different question, but it's tough to bet against Mahomes after throwing for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns last year. Mahomes' rushing ability isn't the first thing to come to mind when looking at his game, but his ability to add at least 300 yards and a couple touchdowns on the ground provides a meaningful boost to his fantasy output. The departures of free agent wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman shouldn't matter much, especially since the Chiefs reloaded with second-round pick Rashee Rice and quality free agent slot man Richie James. There's also the expectation that Kadarius Toney step up more after the Chiefs acquired him in-season from the Giants in 2022. So long as Travis Kelce is on the field it seems like Mahomes can score points with pretty much any combination of wide receivers.
- Round 2, Pick 13 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 24 - 2022 Rank: 2
Allen has been strikingly consistent the last three seasons, though his 4,283 passing yards in 2022 took a slight dip, after he finished with over 4,400 the previous two years. He's had 37, 36 and 35 passing touchdowns consecutively, and his 2022 rushing line of 124-762-7 was almost identical to 2021's mark. Consistency and excellence don't often overlap, but it's a feat that Allen has unquestionably managed. The Bills are likewise running it back with a relatively similar roster, despite having yet again failed to advance past the AFC divisional round, though the addition of first-round TE Dalton Kincaid certainly provides upside. Allen managed to excel in 2022 despite playing through a serious elbow injury, though he's expected to be fully healthy by Week 1. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis return as his top receivers, while tight ends Dawson Knox and Kincaid should perform well as a tandem, even if the learning curve for rookies at the position is steep. Damien Harris could be a more helpful power rusher than Devin Singletary, who departed in free agency, but the stage is set for Allen to once again thrive on the ground as much as through the air.
- Round 3, Pick 28 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 31 - 2022 Rank: 755
The Lions clearly think Gibbs is a franchise RB after using the 12th pick in the draft on him. He doesn't have an ideal lead RB size, but he's not a small back either. However, he doesn't profile as a strong interior runner. His game is vision and speed, and he has elite skills in those areas. Getting him in space as a runner and receiver would make the ideal situation for him. Since the team has David Montgomery, Gibbs could be held below 250 touches and lose red-zone opportunities, though that isn't a guarantee. His range of outcomes is vast. Those who believe he'll be a game-breaker from Day One should aggressively target him in drafts. The concerns are that his touches will be limited and will lessen his potential upside. Though drafting him outside the top-12 running backs would still make him very valuable if he sees fewer touches than the top-backs in the league.
- Round 4, Pick 33 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 56 - 2022 Rank: 59
Despite dealing with some nagging injuries last year, Harris managed to play all 17 games and scored 10 touchdowns for the second time in two pro seasons, albeit within the confines of a sluggish Pittsburgh offense. The 2021 first-round pick fell shy of 4.0 yards per carry for a second straight year, with big plays few and far between while his receiving volume dipped from 93 targets in 2021 to 54 in 2022. Part of that was due to the Steelers throwing less and part due to backup Jaylen Warren getting a lot of playing time on passing downs. Warren is back this season and should have a sizable role off the bench again, but there's still room for Harris to have his best year yet if the Steelers take a step forward in QB Kenny Pickett's second pro year. As much as the young quarterback remains a huge question mark, the team's blocking should be better after Pittsburgh added former Eagles G Isaac Seumalo, rookie OT Broderick Jones (14th overall pick) and 264-pound rookie TE Darnell Washington (93rd pick). The Steelers could have above-average blocking for the first time in years. The lack of backfield depth behind the top two on the depth chart leaves room for Harris to push for 300 touches even if Warren also has a regular role in the offense.
- Round 5, Pick 48 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 37 - 2022 Rank: 54
In the current iteration of the Seahawks offense, Metcalf isn't quite the explosive downfield threat that he was earlier in his career. Last year, he saw a career low 11.6 yards per reception while posting just a 10th-percentile yardage after the catch rate. After being targeted 129 times in each of the two prior seasons, Metcalf was targeted 141 times last year leading to a career high 90 catches. To this point, 2020 is looking like his career year, when he had 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. As long as the team continues to roll with Geno Smith as quarterback, it's unlikely that this becomes a team that consistently attacks downfield, which will limit Metcalf's upside. but his target volume should continue to help him be a strong weekly fantasy option. Based on volume and talent, he should remain in the top-15 conversation at wide receiver.
- Round 6, Pick 53 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 99 - 2022 Rank: 100
Last season, Johnson set a standard for high-volume, low-efficiency receiving, catching 86 passes for 882 yards and nary a touchdown on 147 targets. Even on a team with poor quarterback play, such a performance raises concerns about his target workload moving forward. That's doubly true given that Pittsburgh's second- and third-most targeted players, WR George Pickens and TE Pat Freiermuth, both managed above-average numbers for pass-pass efficiency. Pickens and Freiermuth also happen to be younger than Johnson, both coming from the second round in recent drafts. On the other hand, Johnson is only two years removed from putting up 1,161 receiving yards and eight TDs -- albeit on 169 targets -- and he's still one of the better receivers in the league when it comes to lateral agility and elusiveness. The drawbacks, of course, are numerous, as he's struggled with drops and is neither big (5-10, 183) nor fast (4.53 40-yard dash) by NFL standards. Johnson is locked in for a starting job and lofty snap counts after the Steelers settled for a post-prime Allen Robinson as their "big" offseason addition to the WR room, but there's major risk of a step back when it comes to target volume. The efficiency almost has to improve, especially if the Pittsburgh offense takes a step forward in QB Kenny Pickett's second pro season.
- Round 7, Pick 68 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 39 - 2022 Rank: 56
Aiyuk Is an excellent NFL receiver. He runs great routes, and he navigates traffic extremely well. He also had a solid 66th-percentile yards after the catch rate. Although he had the best season of his career with 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns, he was inconsistent. The main reason is that the 49ers often lean on their rushing attack, and they also have a number of weapons who they can choose to feature as receivers in any game. The problem for Aiyuk is that he can get ignored depending on the game script. He had 10 games in which he was targeted fewer than six times. That also led to him scoring fewer than 10 PPR points on eight occasions. He did have some upside by scoring at least 20 PPR points three times, but you get the picture. At the end of the season, good numbers will likely be there, but the path won't always be fun.
- Round 8, Pick 73 - Bye 13
2023 Rank: 45 - 2022 Rank: 224
Cook's role was limited as a rookie, but he showcased impressive efficiency (5.7 YPC) in those contained flashes. The departure of Devin Singletary should make it easy for Cook to build upon last season's 89 carries and 32 targets, though new arrival Damien Harris represents significant competition, especially for between-the-tackles and goal-line work. Cook's best path to production will be to translate his efficiency to the receiving game, though he didn't exactly impress in that respect as a rookie. Cook caught just 65.6 percent of his targets for 5.6 YPT last season, but as he was never more than a rotational back at Georgia, he could benefit even more than the usual RB from a second offseason to get up to speed at the NFL level. Veteran Latavius Murray is also capable of rotating in for carries. And Josh Allen's elite rushing abilities further reduce the opportunities up for grabs in Buffalo's backfield. A scenario where Cook truly emerges isn't impossible, but he'll need to distinguish himself from the crowd.
- Round 9, Pick 88 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 51 - 2022 Rank: 145
White played as a backup to Leonard Fournette last year and handled 179 touches. With Fournette not coming back, White appears set for a lead role. The big question was whether his 3.7 yards per carry was due to a bad offensive scheme and poor run-blocking along the offensive line, or whether it was White's inability to break tackles. White was in the eighth percentile in broken-tackle rate and 36th-percentile yards after contact. His involvement as a receiver went up as the season went on. He had four or fewer targets in nine of the first 10 games. But he was targeted five-to-nine times in four of his last six games. As a result, he posted at least 9.9 PPR points in five of the last six games. From a potential volume standpoint, White could finish as a top-24 running back. But with Tom Brady gone, what will the offense look like? Will he be able to hold onto the lead role? Will Chase Edmonds cut into the receiving work? Will the Bucs sign a veteran interior runner? There will be a lot of questions about the Tampa Bay offense. But White getting volume seems like a decent bet, though it's unclear how well he'll perform if given the chance.
- Round 10, Pick 93 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 2160 - 2022 Rank: 106
Back injuries are always concerning, and maybe even more so for Williams given the neck injury he suffered in his Clemson days, but the minor back fracture suffered by Williams in Week 18 appears to be a non-issue. More specifically, Williams said in June that the back had been fully recovered since the spring. So long as he's healthy, then Williams should plug back in to a high-volume role in one of the league's most enviable passing games. Williams' target rate rose significantly over the last two years, a span in which he averaged about 120 targets per 850 snaps after averaging only about 85 targets per 850 snaps in his first four seasons. If he can maintain that elevated target rate for a third year and stay healthy all season then 2023 could shape up to be a career year for Williams. There's a possible concern with the introduction of first-round pick Quentin Johnston, but Johnston is more of a downfield specialist than someone who can run the same intermediate routes as Williams. Rather than Williams' usage, Johnston should instead raid the comparatively inefficient targets that went to Joshua Palmer (107) and Gerald Everett (87).
- Round 11, Pick 108 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 109 - 2022 Rank: 157
During his second NFL season last year, Freiermuth's involvement as a pass catcher increased significantly compared to his rookie campaign. However, he dipped from seven touchdowns in 2021 to only two in 2022, suffering from poor QB play and Pittsburgh's overall struggles in the red zone. It was otherwise a strong year, as the 2021 second-round pick set new highs with 63 catches, 732 yards, and 98 targets. Freiermuth tied for fourth among tight ends in overall targets but finished with only 13 red-zone targets, falling well short of the 20 he had in 2021. He has not yet caught a touchdown from Kenny Pickett. The Steelers added more focus on their offensive line during the offseason, settling for WR Allen Robinson and third-round rookie TE Darnell Washington as additions at the skill positions. While Freiermuth sprained the ACL and MCL in his left knee during Pittsburgh's season finale, he did not require surgery to recover and is expected to participate in training camp as usual. He figures to be one of the team's top three pass catchers, alongside WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.
- Round 12, Pick 113 - Bye 9
2023 Rank: 98 - 2022 Rank: 113
Davis may be the posterchild definition of a post-hype sleeper. After endless debate last offseason, Davis ended 2022 with an underwhelming 48-836-7 on 93 targets in 15 games, career highs almost across the board, but disappointing compared to the 201 yards and four touchdowns he put up in a playoff loss to Kansas City he put up to end the previous season. When remembering that Davis managed this while playing second fiddle to Stefon Diggs, a top-5 wideout in the league by almost any metric, his Year 3 step forward looks a bit more favorable. The Bills added a first-round tight end in Dalton Kincaid this offseason, but Davis remains primed to play a key role in this passing game, potentially as a more trusted No. 2 option for Josh Allen. After a boom-or-bust 2022 campaign, it's possible Davis could manage more consistency this season.
- Round 13, Pick 128 - Bye 14
2023 Rank: 27 - 2022 Rank: 218
A third-round pick in 2022 out of Alabama, Robinson's rookie campaign started out in shocking fashion when he was shot during an attempted robbery. He made his debut in Week 5 and was quickly pushed into a prominent early-down role by former offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who seemed to blame Antonio Gibson for his own failures. While Robinson delivered decent volume numbers, his inability to shed tacklers and gain yards after contact kept him from separating himself from his competition and establishing himself as the Commanders' lead back of the future. Turner has since been replaced by former Kansas City coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and it's not clear whether Robinson, Gibson, or even 2023 sixth-round pick Chris Rodriguez will emerge as the top option in Washington's backfield. If Robinson isn't in a workhorse role though, it's tough to see him making much of an impact due to his lack of passing-down work and ineffectiveness in short-yardage situations.
- Round 14, Pick 133 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 88 - 2022 Rank: 162
For a player with his physical gifts and consistent production, it's kind of remarkable that Cooks has never found a long-term home in the NFL. Since being selected in the first round in 2014, the speedster has played for four teams, and a March trade from the Texans has the Cowboys poised to be team No. 5. Through his travels, Cooks has topped 1,000 receiving yards six times in the last eight seasons, and the fact that he didn't reach that mark in Houston last year falls squarely on the shoulders of the erratic quarterback play. While he'll turn 30 in September, he still possesses the speed to force defenders back on their heels, and Dak Prescott should be the best QB he's worked with since he was Tom Brady's top option on the outside with the Patriots in 2017. CeeDee Lamb has that role in Dallas in 2023, but Cooks can still make an impact as the No. 2 wideout.
- Round 15, Pick 148 - Bye 5
2023 Rank: 96 - 2022 Rank: 262
Only 23, Moore has already been on quite a journey in the NFL. The 34th overall pick in 2021 emerged as the Jets' top receiving threat by the second month of his rookie season, averaging 67.4 receiving yards and scoring six touchdowns over a seven-game stretch before a quadriceps injury kept him sidelined for the final five weeks. Moore then struggled last year in his sophomore campaign and eventually was demoted to third on the depth chart, at one point missing a game because of conflict with the coaching staff and his desire to be traded. The Jets acquiesced, though not until the offseason, dealing Moore to Cleveland in March for a Day 2 pick swap. His combination of 4.35 speed and agility could help Deshaun Watson get back on track in his second year with the Browns, but first Moore will need to compete for snaps with Donovan Peoples-Jones, a returning starter whose size/speed combination makes him useful as a deep threat and blocker. Moore reportedly was one of the standouts of Cleveland's offseason program, and he conceivably could finish second or third on the team in targets even if he doesn't play quite as many snaps as fellow WRs Amari Cooper and Peoples-Jones.
- Round 16, Pick 153 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 106 - 2022 Rank: 140
There's always concern about sustainability when a running back flashes in a small sample. But Allgeier definitely made the most of his opportunities as a rookie last year. The fifth-round pick averaged 4.9 yards per carry while ranking in the 92nd percentile for broken-tackle rate and 87th percentile for yards after contact. The 220-pound back had six runs of at least 20 yards (with three of those going over 40 yards) on 210 total carries. And his role increased as the season wound down. His four highest-usage games came in the last four weeks of the year, and he averaged 5.5 yards per carry in that stretch. Only one of those games came against a bad run defense, and he also caught six of seven targets for 52 yards during that span. Despite the impressive rookie year, Atlanta drafted RB Bijan Robinson eighth overall in April, leaving Allgeier without much of a fantasy ceiling unless his new teammates miss time.
DEF - Round 17, Pick 168 - Bye 6
2023 Rank: 198 - 2022 Rank: 104
In terms of fantasy performance, the Steelers were not as successful as usual in 2022, ending up in 14th place with only 40 sacks and 23 takeaways. OLB T.J. Watt's absence from seven games was a crucial factor in the defense's decline, but he is now in good health and ready to form a dominant edge pairing with Alex Highsmith. Pittsburgh has strengthened its secondary by signing CB Patrick Peterson and drafting CB Joey Porter with the 32nd overall pick, making up for the loss of CB Cameron Sutton. With Watt and Highsmith joined by standout safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Pittsburgh defense certainly doesn't lack star power.
- Round 18, Pick 173 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 190 - 2022 Rank: 154
Koo has proven to be one of the league's finest kickers over the course of three and a half seasons with Atlanta. Despite being tied to subpar offenses, he's often been a top fantasy performer, albeit with some help from the team's dome. He has demonstrated his prowess from 50-plus yards, boasting an impressive record of 20-for-25, and he's also gone 31-for-39 from 40-49 yards. Koo's talent keeps him on the fantasy map again this year even with Falcons QB Desmond Ridder projecting as one of the lesser starting quarterbacks in the league. If the Falcons offense can merely become competent behind a strong running game, Koo is good enough to place among the top fantasy kickers.
DEF - Round 19, Pick 188 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 297 - 2022 Rank: 119
The Panthers defense placed in the lower half of the league in almost every significant category last season. While they bolstered their secondary by acquiring safety Vonn Bell, they waited until the third round of the draft to add more help with the selection of pass rusher DJ Johnson. The Panthers did use a bunch of first-round picks on defenders in previous drafts, including DT Derrick Brown and CB Jaycee Horn, so a big step forward isn't entirely out of the question. Still, they should be treated as a potential streamer rather than a likely week-to-week starter for fantasy.
- Round 20, Pick 193 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 302 - 2022 Rank: 160
Over the course of the last four years spent in New England, the 38-year-old kicker, Folk, experienced what could arguably be considered the prime of his lengthy career. During this period, he was able to convert an impressive 89.3 percent of his field-goal attempts and 91.3 percent of PATs. Additionally, Folk exceeded expectations by hitting nine kicks from 50-plus yards in just two seasons, despite having never made more than three kicks from that range in a single year previously. Although his offensive teammates were not always up to par, Folk still managed to rank top-5 in total field-goals made in both years. Despite his achievements, the team did not seem too impressed and opted to use a fourth-round pick in 2023 on Maryland kicker, Chad Ryland, who possesses a stronger leg and may eventually take over Folk's role.
- Round 21, Pick 208 - Bye 7
2023 Rank: 162 - 2022 Rank: 353
A fourth-round pick out of Wisconsin in 2022, Ferguson didn't post big receiving numbers in college. As a rookie, though, he showed flashes of being more than just a depth option in the NFL when injuries to Dalton Schultz pushed him into a more prominent role. Schultz was allowed to leave in free agency, and while Ferguson moved to the top of the depth chart as a result, he will face real competition for that spot from 2023 second-round pick Luke Schoonmaker, as well as fellow second-year tight end Peyton Hendershot. Schoonmaker was viewed as the better prospect when he was drafted, although he did battle foot issues over the summer that may have cost him some key development time. Even if Ferguson wins the Week 1 starting job, all three tight ends could wind up splitting the receiving workload.
- Round 22, Pick 213 - Bye 11
2023 Rank: 134 - 2022 Rank: 181
Johnson was a converted wide receiver when entering the NFL three years ago. Although some fantasy players were excited about his potential, he needed time to fully make the transition. Last year, he finally had an opportunity, and he took advantage of it. He turned 65 targets into a 500-yard season with seven touchdowns. Although his seasonal numbers weren't special, Johnson was a high-floor player for much of the year. He posted at least 40 yards eight times over 16 games. He was a regular visitor to the end zone in Weeks 7-15, when he scored all of his touchdowns for the season in a seven-game span. He also proved to be a big-play producer, as eight of his 42 catches resulted in gains of at least 20 yards. With Derek Carr under center and likely dealing with protection issues, Johnson may directly benefit from the QB's need to get the ball out quickly. Johnson has the potential to finish as a top-12 TE.
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
